Core Viewpoint - The sentiment in the market shifted as U.S. Treasury yields turned from rising to falling after deeper analysis of newly released economic data, indicating a complex economic outlook despite initial positive indicators [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Initial jobless claims decreased, and retail sales exceeded expectations, initially leading to an increase in Treasury yields, suggesting strong economic resilience [1] - However, the decrease in jobless claims was influenced by a smaller-than-usual summer shutdown in auto factories, indicating potential underlying weaknesses [1] - Retail sales growth may not be as robust as it appears, with future trends showing risks of weakness according to economic analysts [1]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 12 is reported at 221,000, which is lower than the expected 235,000 [1] - The previous week's figure was revised from 227,000 to 228,000, indicating a slight increase in claims [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. have decreased to a two-month low, indicating employers are reluctant to lay off workers, while the continuing claims remain high, suggesting difficulties for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [1] Group 1: Initial Jobless Claims - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline and the lowest level in two months [1] - The fluctuation in initial jobless claims during the summer school break and federal holidays is attributed to temporary and seasonal workers experiencing repeated employment and unemployment [1] Group 2: Continuing Jobless Claims - Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.97 million last week, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating ongoing challenges for unemployed individuals in securing new employment [1] - The increase in continuing claims contrasts with the decrease in initial claims, highlighting a complex labor market situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 is reported at 227,000, which is lower than the expected 235,000 and a slight adjustment from the previous value of 233,000, revised to 232,000 [1] Summary by Category - **Initial Jobless Claims** - The reported figure of 227,000 initial jobless claims indicates a decrease compared to the expected 235,000 [1] - The previous week's claims were revised down from 233,000 to 232,000, showing a minor adjustment in the data [1]

美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to a six-week low of 233,000, down by 4,000 from the previous week, which is below economists' expectations of 240,000 [1][1][1] - The total number of continuing jobless claims remained high at 1.964 million, marking the highest level since the fall of 2021 [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 28 was 233,000, which is lower than the expected 240,000 [1] - The previous week's figure was revised from 236,000 to 237,000 [1]

Economic Events and Data Summary - Key focus on various economic indicators and events scheduled for July 3rd, including China's Caixin Services PMI for June [1] - Switzerland's CPI month-on-month for June will be released at 14:30 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a regular press conference at 15:00 [1] - Final services PMI for June will be published for France at 15:50, Germany at 15:55, and the Eurozone at 16:00 [1][1][1] - The UK's services PMI for June will be available at 16:30 [1] - The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting at 19:30 [1] - Key U.S. labor market data will be released at 20:30, including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls for June [1] - The final services PMI for June from S&P Global will be published at 21:45 [1] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and factory orders for May will be released at 22:00 [1] - EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending June 27 will be available at 22:30 [1] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will speak on monetary policy at 23:00 [1] - Total U.S. oil rig count for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]

美国至6月21日当周初请失业金人数 23.6万人，预期24.5万人，前值由24.5万人修正为24.6万人。 ...