Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.19%. Currently, rebar supply is contracting, but the positive effect is weak under high inventory. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices are prone to downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a fluctuating manner, with a daily increase of 0.37%. During the holiday, the production of plate mills was stable, the supply pressure was high, demand was weak, the fundamentals were weak, inventory increased significantly, and prices continued to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 0.96%. During the holiday, the overseas commodity market atmosphere was warm, supporting the ore price. However, ore supply returned to a high level, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals were accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price was expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The WTO significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the 1.8% forecast in August. The growth rate of global service exports is expected to drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026. Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties spreading to more economies and industries pose major downward risks [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. The heavy - truck market has achieved six consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to September [7]. - From January to September 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network announced more than 120 anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings against Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties include carbon steel alloy wire rods, steel fences, large - diameter welded pipes, etc. [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,210 yuan, and the national average price is 3,258 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, and the national average price is 3,398 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,060 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 802 yuan. The sea freight from Australia is 10.34 yuan, and from Brazil is 25.46 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.29 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 103.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,096 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 823,683 lots, a decrease of 136,145 lots, and the open interest is 1,908,129 lots, an increase of 34,297 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,286 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume is 369,788 lots, a decrease of 141,323 lots, and the open interest is 1,374,586 lots, an increase of 24,718 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 790.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.96%. The trading volume is 240,766 lots, an increase of 45,587 lots, and the open interest is 459,565 lots, an increase of 12,200 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production conditions (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][20][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: During the holiday, the spot price of construction steel was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to improve marginally. The production of construction steel mills was stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly. Considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term production increase momentum is weak, and the supply will run stably at a low level. However, the inventory increase pressure during the holiday is large, and the positive effect is weak. The pre - holiday demand improved due to downstream restocking, but both supply and demand are at low levels in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is expected to be insufficient. The steel price is prone to downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: During the holiday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil weakened, inventory continued to increase, the production of plate mills was weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was at a high level, and the inventory was relatively high. There was also off - balance - sheet production transfer, resulting in high supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil began to weaken, and high - frequency indicators continued to decline. Although the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products returned to a high level, due to the accumulated industrial contradictions, it was still likely to drag down the demand for hot - rolled coil. Coupled with limited improvement in external demand, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil is expected to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [35]. - Iron ore: During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swap fluctuated higher, and the spot price increased. However, the pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of iron ore weakened. The production of steel mills was stable, the terminal consumption of ore remained at a high level, and the demand performance was acceptable, supporting the ore price. However, the positive effect of restocking was weakening, and the contradictions in the steel market were accumulating. The post - holiday demand may weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports returned to a high level, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered. The iron ore supply returned to a high level. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [36].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce made a final ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese molded pulp products, with the law firm Dentons representing the top two exporters, achieving the lowest national tax rates [2] - The countervailing tax rate for the client was set at 7.56%, significantly lower than the industry average of 62.66% and the punitive rate of 319.92% [2] - The combined anti-dumping and countervailing tax rate for the client is approximately 1/8 of the main competitor's rate and 1/14 of the punitive rate [2] Group 2 - In a similar investigation regarding Vietnamese molded pulp products, only two companies received a combined tax rate of 6.44%, while other Vietnamese companies faced rates between 217.33% and 412.97% [3] - The Dentons team also represented the largest Chinese exporter of paper plates to the U.S., achieving a preliminary anti-dumping tax rate of 0% [8] - The firm has filed an administrative lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Commerce's adverse facts rule, successfully obtaining a court order to stop the imposition of anti-dumping duties on their client's paper plate exports [8] Group 3 - The investigation into the anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese molded pulp products has now entered the stage of investigating industry damage, with the Dentons team closely monitoring the proceedings [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures against EU imports of pork and pork by-products, imposing a deposit ranging from 15.6% to 62.4%, which is seen as a protective measure for the domestic pig industry [1][6] Group 1: Market Impact - The EU is the largest exporter of pork to China, with exports expected to account for 47% of its total exports to China in 2024, valued at 4 billion euros [2] - The anti-dumping measures are projected to reduce EU pork exports to China by 30% to 50% by 2025 [2] - The reduction in EU pork supply will create a market space of approximately 8 to 10 billion RMB annually for the domestic pork industry [5][9] Group 2: Domestic Industry Conditions - Domestic pork prices have been declining, with the average price of lean pork dropping below 17 RMB/kg, a year-on-year decrease of over 30% [6] - The influx of low-priced EU pork has severely impacted local profit margins, particularly for by-products like pig ears and feet, which are priced about 60% lower than domestic products [6] - The anti-dumping measures aim to create a fairer trading environment, providing stability for domestic producers and improving price expectations for small and medium-sized farms [6][9] Group 3: Opportunities for Improvement - The market space created by the anti-dumping measures will depend on the domestic industry's ability to enhance competitiveness through quality improvement and efficiency [7] - The industry should focus on standardized and large-scale farming, improving pork quality and production efficiency [7] - Slaughter and processing companies need to enhance cold chain logistics and optimize product structures to meet consumer trends [7] Group 4: Policy Support - The government is implementing various policies to stabilize pig production and market supply, including promoting standardized farming and increasing frozen pork reserves [9] - By 2026, the self-sufficiency rate of pork by-products is expected to rise to 85%, reducing reliance on imports [9] - The anti-dumping measures provide a critical adjustment window for the domestic pig industry, allowing for a shift from quantity expansion to quality enhancement [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued final rulings on anti-dumping and countervailing duties against thermoformed molded fiber products from China and Vietnam, significantly impacting the industry and forcing a restructuring of global supply chains [1]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties - The final anti-dumping duty rate for Zhongxin Co., as a mandatory respondent, is set at 283.89%, while other Chinese producers/exporters face rates ranging from 49.08% to 477.97% [1]. - The final countervailing duty rate for Zhongxin Co. is 97.82%, with other Chinese producers/exporters facing rates between 7.56% and 319.92% [1]. Group 2: Impact on the Industry - The rulings will block the export of thermoformed molded fiber products from China to the U.S., compelling U.S. customers to seek suppliers outside of China, leading to a reorganization of the global supply chain [1]. - The domestic production capacity in China is expected to become surplus, and competition in non-U.S. markets will intensify, posing significant challenges for Chinese pulp molded product manufacturers [1]. Group 3: Company Response - Zhongxin Co. plans to expand its presence in non-U.S. markets and actively identify high-potential target markets while building diversified sales channels [2]. - The company aims to optimize its production capacity and product structure to meet customer demands in the new market environment, providing high-quality products and services to all customers, including those in the U.S. [2]. - As of September 26, 2025, Zhongxin Co.'s stock price is reported at 76.09 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of approximately 7.779 billion yuan [2].

Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation on Pecans - The Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of anti-dumping investigations on imported pecans from Mexico and the United States, citing evidence of sales below normal value and significant market entry increases [1][2] - The investigation period for dumping is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, while the industry damage investigation period is from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024 [2] - The product under investigation is defined as "fresh or dried pecans," specifically "Carya illinoensis," and falls under the tariff code 08029990 [3] Group 2: Trade Investment Barrier Investigation on Mexico - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated a trade investment barrier investigation regarding Mexico's proposed increase in import tariffs on products from non-free trade partners, including China [6] - The investigation will cover various product categories, including automobiles, textiles, plastics, steel, and household appliances, among others [6] - The investigation is expected to conclude within six months from the announcement date, with a possible extension of up to three months under special circumstances [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the United States, citing evidence of dumping and substantial harm to the domestic industry [2][16]. Group 1: Investigation Announcement - The investigation is based on preliminary evidence indicating that imported pecans are sold at prices lower than their normal value, leading to a significant increase in import volume and a decrease in prices, which harms the domestic industry [2][3]. - The investigation period for dumping is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, while the period for assessing industry damage is from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024 [2][16]. Group 2: Product and Scope - The products under investigation include fresh or dried pecans, specifically Carya illinoensis, which are primarily consumed as food [4][5]. - The relevant customs tariff number for these products is 08029990, and other products under this tariff are not included in the investigation [6]. Group 3: Participation and Information Submission - Interested parties must register to participate in the investigation within 20 days from the announcement date, providing necessary information regarding their identity and the quantities and values of the products involved [7][8]. - Comments on the investigation can also be submitted within the same 20-day period [11]. Group 4: Investigation Methodology - The Ministry of Commerce may use various methods such as questionnaires, sampling, hearings, and on-site verifications to gather information from relevant parties [12]. - Specific questionnaires will be issued to exporters, domestic producers, and importers to collect detailed operational and financial information [12][13]. Group 5: Consequences of Non-Compliance - Non-compliance or failure to provide accurate information may result in the Ministry making determinations based on the best available information [15]. Group 6: Contact Information - The Ministry of Commerce has provided contact details for further inquiries, including phone numbers and the official website for accessing investigation-related information [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations concerning Chinese glycolic acid products, imposing a 57.30% anti-dumping tax on Xinjiang Guolin's products, while other Chinese companies face taxes ranging from 29.20% to 124.90% [1] Company Summary - The anti-dumping measures will be effective for five years from the announcement date [1] - In the first half of 2024 and 2025, the revenue from glycolic acid exports to the EU will account for 3.50% and 1.27% of the company's total revenue, respectively, indicating a limited impact on the company's operations [1] - The company plans to enhance product research and development, reduce costs, and explore markets outside the EU to mitigate the effects of the anti-dumping tax [1]

Group 1 - The Indian Ministry of Commerce announced a definitive anti-dumping ruling on September 19, suggesting a five-year anti-dumping duty on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) imported from or originating in China and Russia [1] - The proposed anti-dumping tax rates are as follows: for China, the rate ranges from $0 to $5,933.70 per ton, while for Russia, the rate is set at $4,578.80 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against Chinese MDI, with a maximum dumping margin of 511.75% [2][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Ruling - The preliminary ruling determined the weighted average dumping margins for specific companies, with Wanhua Chemical Group and Covestro Polymers (China) Co., Ltd. both facing a margin of 376.12% [2]. - Other Chinese entities face the maximum dumping margin of 511.75% [2]. Group 2: MDI Export Data - In 2022, 2023, and 2024, China's exports of pure MDI to the U.S. were 4,700 tons, 2,600 tons, and 1,700 tons, with transaction values of $21 million, $11 million, and $5 million respectively [3]. - For polymer MDI, exports were 225,600 tons, 230,200 tons, and 268,000 tons, with transaction values of $473 million, $319 million, and $392 million respectively [3]. - The U.S. is the largest export market for Chinese MDI, but the anti-dumping measures are expected to significantly reduce exports, with a projected drop of 82.48% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Implications - If the U.S. Department of Commerce issues a final affirmative ruling, the impact on Chinese MDI manufacturers is expected to be limited [4]. - Other regional suppliers, such as those in East Asia, may increase exports to the U.S., tightening the supply in the Asia-Pacific market [4]. - Wanhua Chemical has the potential to offset risks by increasing exports from its European production facilities [4].

Group 1 - The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a final decision on the sunset review of anti-dumping duties on BOPP (Biaxially Oriented Polypropylene) from China, resulting in a zero tax rate for Suqian Jintian Plastic Industry Co., Ltd, marking a significant achievement for Chinese companies in recent years [1] - The Vietnamese authorities decided not to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on BOPP products exported from China following the sunset review [1] - The law firm Zhongyin International has extensive experience in anti-dumping cases, having represented over 300 Chinese companies in more than 200 anti-dumping and countervailing cases across major global markets [1] Group 2 - Zhongyin Trade Relief and WTO Legal Service Center has a team of experienced lawyers and accountants specializing in anti-dumping, countervailing measures, and WTO negotiations, among other areas [2] - The services provided by Zhongyin cover all stages of anti-dumping matters, including responses to investigations, administrative reviews, judicial reviews, and tax-related services [2] - The mission of Zhongyin Trade Relief and WTO Service Center is to utilize domestic laws and WTO rules to protect the rights of free trade for nations and enterprises, focusing on the needs of businesses [2]