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沪铜产业日报-20250917
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 09:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract had a slight pullback, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis [2]. - At the mining end of the fundamentals, the spot index of copper concentrate TC is in the negative range, and the concentrate quotation remains firm, providing cost support for copper prices [2]. - In terms of supply, the supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is relatively tight, which restricts the smelting capacity to some extent. Coupled with macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are operating in a high - level range [2]. - On the demand side, the strong copper prices suppress the downstream purchasing sentiment, and the trading volume in the spot market is relatively light. At the terminal, the boost to demand in the peak season has not yet appeared, and the consumption recovery is relatively slow [2]. - In the options market, the purchase - to - sell ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.33, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0385. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased [2]. - Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,006 dollars/ton, a decrease of 120.5 dollars [2]. - The inter - month spread of the main contract was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 147,464 lots, a decrease of 17,752 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 11,447 lots, an increase of 1 lot; the LME copper inventory was 150,950 tons, a decrease of 1,675 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE was 94,054 tons, an increase of 12,203 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 15,800 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons [2]. - The SHFE warrants of cathode copper were 33,291 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 81,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 81,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 56 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.5 dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 560 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 59.26 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 0.2105 million tons; the copper smelter's roughing fee (TC) was - 41.3 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 71,530 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 250 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 72,230 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 0.031 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,650 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 0.0526 million tons; the cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 331.497 billion yuan, an increase of 40.431 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.37%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.79%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 14.07%, an increase of 0.0015; the purchase - to - sell ratio of at - the - money options was 1.33, a decrease of 0.0385 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", supporting cross - border cooperation between high - quality consumption resources and well - known IPs, etc. [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth [2]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng pointed out in an article that the international dominant currency has the attribute of a global public good, and there are inherent instability problems when borne by a single sovereign currency. The international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and checks and balances among a few sovereign currencies [2]. - As of the end of August, the passenger vehicle industry inventory in China was 3.16 million units, a decrease of 0.13 million units from the previous month. From May to August, car companies more rationally controlled production, reducing the inventory pressure on dealers [2].
商务部:支持将更多服务消费领域纳入《鼓励外商投资产业目录》
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-17 09:16
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing policies to expand service consumption, focusing on opening up various sectors to enhance foreign investment and improve service accessibility for international markets [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy document outlines measures to promote orderly opening in sectors such as the internet and culture [1] - It emphasizes expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education [1] - The initiative supports including more service consumption areas in the "Encouraging Foreign Investment Industry Directory" [1] Group 2: Facilitation for Foreigners - The government aims to continuously optimize visa policies for foreigners coming to China [1] - It includes measures to facilitate communication, accommodation, and payment for international visitors [1] - The focus is on cultivating international markets in healthcare and exhibition sectors [1]
商务部:丰富高品质服务供给 扩大服务业高水平对外开放
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-17 09:16
国务院新闻办公室9月17日举行新闻发布会,介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措施,并答记者问。商务部副 部长盛秋平介绍,《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》提出:丰富高品质服务供给。商务部将扩大服 务业高水平对外开放,将更多服务消费领域纳入《鼓励外商投资产业目录》,以开放优化供给,以供给 创造需求;支持影视、动漫等领域精品创作;因地制宜延长热门文博场馆、景区营业时间,支持文博场 馆创新办展方式;鼓励引进国际高水平体育赛事,打造精品赛事和体育竞赛表演品牌;规范发展非学科 教育培训,提供更多优质技能培训、文化艺术培训;加强对养老护理、家政服务、长期照护等领域从业 人员培训,支持普惠托育机构建设;放宽中高端医疗、休闲度假等领域市场准入,减少限制性措施。 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 ...
商务部:推动创新和丰富服务消费场景,增加优质文旅、体育等消费资源供给
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-17 08:43
国务院新闻办公室9月17日举行新闻发布会,介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措施,并答记者问。商务 部副部长盛秋平介绍,《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》坚持从供给和需求两端协同发力,以扩大 优质供给为切入点,提出开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设,推动创新和丰富服务消费场景, 增加优质文旅、体育等消费资源供给,支持提升文化娱乐、体育、家政、养老、托育等服务供给水平。 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 ...
商务部:坚持优化供给和扩大需求相结合扩大服务消费
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-17 07:34
央视网消息:9月17日,国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会,介绍《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》 (以下简称《政策措施》)的主要内容及亮点。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上表示,在《政策措施》制定 过程中,以扩大服务消费为主要目标,着力解决制约服务消费发展的堵点、难点问题,主要表现为三个 坚持:坚持惠民生和促消费相结合、坚持优化供给和扩大需求相结合、坚持对外开放和对内放开。其 中,在统筹供给与需求方面,盛秋平指出,供给和需求相互影响、相互促进,新的需求可以催生新的供 给,新的供给也可以创造新的消费需求。所以政策措施坚持从供给和需求两端协同发力,以扩大优质供 给为切入点,集中开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设,推动创新和丰富服务消费场景,增加优 质供给。 ...
商务部副部长盛秋平:坚持优化供给和扩大需求相结合扩大服务消费
人民财讯9月17日电,9月17日,商务部副部长盛秋平在国新办新闻发布会上表示,在《关于扩大服务消 费的若干政策措施》制定过程中,以扩大服务消费为主要目标,着力解决制约服务消费发展的堵点、难 点问题,主要表现为三个坚持:坚持惠民生和促消费相结合、坚持优化供给和扩大需求相结合、坚持对 外开放和对内放开。 其中,在统筹供给与需求方面,盛秋平指出,供给和需求相互影响、相互促进,新的需求可以催生新的 供给,新的供给也可以创造新的消费需求。所以政策措施坚持从供给和需求两端协同发力,以扩大优质 供给为切入点,集中开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设,推动创新和丰富服务消费场景,增加 优质供给。 ...
商务部:扩大服务消费 坚持惠民生和促消费相结合
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-09-17 07:21
(文章来源:央视新闻) 商务部有关负责人表示,《政策措施》提出5方面19条具体任务措施,坚持惠民生和促消费相结合,坚 持优化供给和激发需求相结合,坚持对外开放和对内放开相结合,吸引更多优质服务消费资源进入,解 决供给侧优质服务短缺问题,激发经营主体活力,提高服务供给的质量和效率。 今天(17日),国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会,介绍《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》的主要内容 及亮点。 ...
中教控股涨超15% 教育板块迎政策利好 公司为中国规模最大的民办高等教育集团
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 06:20
Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Education Group Holdings (00839) has surged over 15%, currently up 16.96% at HKD 3.93, with a trading volume of HKD 655 million, driven by favorable government policies in the education sector [1] Group 1: Government Policy Impact - On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to expand service consumption, highlighting the opening of pilot programs in education and encouraging market-oriented vocational training [1] - The education sector is expected to benefit from these new policies, creating opportunities for companies like China Education Group [1] Group 2: Company Characteristics - China Education Group Holdings is the largest listed higher and vocational education group in China, with operations in China, Australia, and the UK, covering higher education, vocational education, and continuing education [1] - The company operates several institutions, including Baiyun Technical College, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, and Guangdong Baiyun College [1] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - Dongwu Securities noted that China Education Group has a history of substantial dividend and yield rates, with solid assets and good cash flow from advance payments [1] - The competitive barriers in the education industry are considered very high, and the company's valuation for 2025 is estimated to be around 3-6 times PE, indicating significant recovery potential [1]
港股异动 | 同程旅行(00780)涨超4%破顶 19项措施扩大服务消费 花旗料黄金周旅游需求将强劲
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 05:44
Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a new high of 24.04 HKD, driven by favorable government policies aimed at boosting service consumption and tourism [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tongcheng Travel's stock rose over 4%, currently trading at 23.94 HKD with a transaction volume of 240 million HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on September 16, outlining measures to expand service consumption, including attracting more foreign visitors and optimizing student holiday arrangements [1] - The notice suggests exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, which would shorten winter and summer vacations, thereby increasing opportunities for travel and service consumption [1] - Citigroup anticipates that if these policies are implemented, there will be a significant increase in long-term family travel [1] - The upcoming Golden Week holiday will last for 8 days, one day longer than last year, leading Citigroup to predict strong tourism demand, particularly for long-distance and outbound travel [1]
同程旅行涨超4%破顶 19项措施扩大服务消费 花旗料黄金周旅游需求将强劲
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 05:41
同程旅行(00780)涨超4%,高见24.04港元创上市新高。截至发稿,涨4.18%,报23.94港元,成交额2.4亿 港元。 消息面上,商务部等9部门9月16日印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》的通知。其中提到,吸引 更多境外人员入境消费,及优化学生假期安排,完善配套政策。探索设置中小学春秋假,相应缩短寒暑 假时间,增加旅游出行等服务消费时间。对此,花旗认为,若政策落地实施,可显著增加长线家庭旅 游。花旗还指出,今年黄金周假期共有8日,较去年多1日,该行预计期间旅游需求将强劲,长线游及出 境游可更受惠。 ...