记者丨周慧 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行。 全会提出，建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局。坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于 人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环内生动力 和可靠性。要大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点。 21世纪经济报道记者就此采访了商务部研究院、北京大学经济学院等专家进行解读。 图：2025年初，沈阳棋盘山滑雪场游客扎堆 拍摄：周慧 商务部研究院研究员白明表示，公报提出坚持扩大内需的这个战略基点，将坚持扩大内需提到了重要的位置，只有夯实了这个 基点，中国才能得以构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，这是具有长远眼光的宏观战略。从发 展格局来看，中国双循环并重，有了这个基点做支撑，中国在外循环上才能占据主动和更自信。 商务部研究院研究员周密表示，公报将建设强大国内市场提到了很重要的位置，强调了国内市场的重要性，中国市场覆盖14亿 多人口，市场规模和潜力是非常大的，这个目标是希望能够对全球 ...

Core Insights - The core message emphasizes the importance of "investing in people" as a means to enhance overall societal development and well-being, aligning with the government's focus on prioritizing human-centered investments [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment in People's Development - The government has allocated over 70% of public budget expenditures to the livelihood sector since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, reflecting a commitment to improving citizens' lives [1] - "Investing in people" aims to promote comprehensive human development through increased funding in education, healthcare, skills training, and social security, thereby enhancing national quality and development capabilities [2] Group 2: Urgency for Increased Investment - Despite high levels of current investment in livelihoods, there is an increasing urgency to enhance "investment in people" due to demographic changes such as aging population and declining birth rates, which raise demands for pension and healthcare services [3] - The shift in economic development from investment and exports to domestic demand and innovation necessitates increased livelihood investments to stabilize employment, raise income, and strengthen social security, ultimately boosting consumption [3] Group 3: Addressing Social Inequality - There are significant disparities in public services across regions, urban-rural divides, and among different social groups, highlighting the need for targeted resource allocation to underdeveloped areas and vulnerable populations to promote social equity [4] - Future investments in livelihoods should not only increase in volume but also improve precision, effectiveness, and sustainability, focusing on creating a comprehensive service system that addresses the needs of the elderly and children [4]

Core Insights - The urgency to increase "investment in people" is growing despite already high levels of social spending, as this type of investment is seen as a long-term strategy for sustainable development [2][4][5] - The government has allocated over 70% of the general public budget expenditure to social welfare since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, reflecting a commitment to prioritize human-centered development [2][4] - The shift from material capital investment to human capital investment is essential for achieving high-quality economic growth, as innovation and technological advancement ultimately rely on human resources [2][3] Investment in Human Capital - "Investment in people" focuses on promoting comprehensive human development through increased funding in education, healthcare, skills training, and social security, enhancing national quality and development capabilities [3][5] - Addressing residents' concerns is crucial, as social investments must translate into tangible improvements in education, healthcare, elderly care, social security, and housing to foster social vitality [3][4] Social and Economic Context - The deepening of population aging and the trend of "low birth rates" raise higher demands for pension and healthcare services, while urbanization continues to highlight the needs of new citizens and youth in housing, education, and employment [4][5] - The transition of China's economic development model from reliance on investment and exports to a focus on domestic demand and innovation is supported by social investments that stabilize employment and enhance consumer spending [4][5] Addressing Inequality - The persistent issues of unbalanced development and inadequate public services across regions, urban-rural divides, and different social groups necessitate targeted resource allocation to underdeveloped areas and vulnerable populations [4][5] - Optimizing the structure of social investments is the most direct and effective way to reduce disparities and promote social equity [4][5] Future Directions - Future social investments should not only increase in volume but also improve in precision, effectiveness, and sustainability, focusing on creating a comprehensive service system that addresses the needs of all life stages [5] - Enhancing human capital investment is vital for economic transformation, with an emphasis on vocational training and lifelong learning to equip workers for technological changes [5] - Addressing social welfare gaps by directing resources towards rural areas, underdeveloped regions, and disadvantaged groups will alleviate burdens in housing, education, and healthcare [5]

要让人在财富的创造中发挥更重要的作用，需要我们更有效地"投资于人"，以一种更长远而非短期功利的心态"投资于人"。 拿教育来说，从巩固普惠性学前教育到推动义务教育优质均衡发展，再到高等教育改革和终身教育机制建设，我们需要培养更多高素质、高技能的人 才，以适应新的就业形势。这种"高"不仅仅是指学历上的高，也不是单指持有多高级别的资质证书，而是技能的多元和精深。每个人有着不同的性格禀 赋，这些禀赋在锻炼和培训后，能够胜任不同岗位、满足不同市场需求。这也意味着，我们需要通过各种劳动技能培训，让更多人有机会发挥自己的一 技之长。 个人能力的充分发挥也需要一个更加丰富多元的市场。从个体角度来说，这种丰富和多元来自人们千差万别的兴趣爱好。这些不同的兴趣爱好既创造了 不同的市场需求，也为具有不同性格和才能的人提供了发挥的空间——他们可能正是需求的提供者。 我们应该清楚地认识到人在财富增长中的重要性，要让人在财 富的创造中发挥更重要的作用，更要让财富的增值服务于占据 大多数的普通人。这将带来更具包容性的长期增长。 作者： 社论 封图：图虫创意 刚刚过去的国庆中秋双节创出了新高：总计8.88亿人次出游，总花费超过8000亿元。为 ...

（原标题：经观社论｜"投资于人"必先尊重人） 刚刚过去的国庆中秋双节创出了新高：总计8.88亿人次出游，总花费超过8000亿元。为了迎接海量游 客，各地政府也拿出了最大的诚意。江苏、湖北、辽宁等多省一把手走上街头，来到古城墙、小吃街、 文创店，为当地旅游业站台。 基于此，我们应该清楚地认识到人在财富增长中的重要性，要让人在财富的创造中发挥更重要的作用， 更要让财富的增值服务于占据大多数的普通人。这将带来更具包容性的长期增长。 要让人在财富的创造中发挥更重要的作用，需要我们更有效地"投资于人"，以一种更长远而非短期功利 的心态"投资于人"。 拿教育来说，从巩固普惠性学前教育到推动义务教育优质均衡发展，再到高等教育改革和终身教育机制 建设，我们需要培养更多高素质、高技能的人才，以适应新的就业形势。这种"高"不仅仅是指学历上的 高，也不是单指持有多高级别的资质证书，而是技能的多元和精深。每个人有着不同的性格禀赋，这些 禀赋在锻炼和培训后，能够胜任不同岗位、满足不同市场需求。这也意味着，我们需要通过各种劳动技 能培训，让更多人有机会发挥自己的一技之长。 个人能力的充分发挥也需要一个更加丰富多元的市场。从个体角度来说， ...

基于此，我们应该清楚地认识到人在财富增长中的重要性，要让人在财富的创造中发挥更重要的作用，更要让财富的增值服务于占据大多数的普通人。这将 带来更具包容性的长期增长。 要让人在财富的创造中发挥更重要的作用，需要我们更有效地"投资于人"，以一种更长远而非短期功利的心态"投资于人"。 经观评论 刚刚过去的国庆中秋双节创出了新高：总计8.88亿人次出游，总花费超过8000亿元。为了迎接海量游客，各地政府也拿出了最大的诚意。江苏、湖北、辽宁 等多省一把手走上街头，来到古城墙、小吃街、文创店，为当地旅游业站台。 地方政府的热情可以理解。与动辄上百亿元投资的传统大型基建项目和工业项目相比，文旅在规模上似乎并不占优势，但文旅的优势在于其具有的普惠性。 文旅支出大部分不会流向机器、钢筋和水泥，而是会源源不断地流向拥有各类技能和才能的普通人。他们可能是街头小店的经营者、夜市烤串的师傅，也可 能是在古建筑群中穿着汉服表演的演员。 对当下背负着债务压力和就业压力的地方政府而言，文旅所代表的经济发展动能尤为宝贵。 过去二十多年，"投资于物"是中国经济发展的重要模式，这种模式以基建和制造业投资为引擎，支撑了中国经济的高速发展，并形成了中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" emphasizes governance against disorderly competition among enterprises, and is also seen as a crucial tool to reverse the ongoing decline in macro prices. Recent expectations of supply constraints have strengthened, but prices related to "anti-involution" have experienced a short-term spike followed by a decline. The future dynamics will depend on the demand side [2][5][9]. Group 1: Debt Management - Historically, debt management has helped to improve the liquidity situation of local governments and urban investment enterprises to achieve "risk prevention." However, this period of debt management often corresponds with weakened investment demand in infrastructure, which can hinder "stabilizing growth." This explains the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment trends observed this year [5][9]. - The current round of debt management is accompanied by the clearing of local financing platforms, resulting in negative net financing for urban investment bonds and zero growth in interest-bearing liabilities of urban investment enterprises. This further elucidates the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment [5][9]. Group 2: Shift in Fiscal Spending - Unlike in the past, the philosophy of fiscal spending is gradually shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people." Consequently, various types of social spending have accelerated this year, while infrastructure spending has significantly lagged. "Investment in people" is beneficial for long-term economic development, but its effect on short-term total demand expansion is relatively limited or delayed [7][9]. - Future projections indicate that land transfer income may continue to decline significantly, suggesting persistent debt management pressures. It is also anticipated that "early allocation of part of next year's new local government debt limits and proactive use of debt management quotas" will be necessary [9][10].

Group 1 - The concept of "anti-involution" emphasizes governance against disorderly competition among enterprises and is seen as a crucial tool to reverse the ongoing decline in macro prices. Recent expectations of supply constraints have strengthened, but prices related to "anti-involution" have experienced a short-term spike followed by a decline. The future dynamics will depend on the demand side [2][3] - Historically, debt reduction has helped to improve the liquidity situation of local governments and urban investment enterprises to achieve "risk prevention." However, periods of debt reduction often correspond with weakened investment demand in infrastructure, which can hinder "stabilizing growth." This trend explains the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment this year [4][5] - Unlike in the past, the focus of fiscal spending is gradually shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people." Consequently, various types of social spending have accelerated this year, while infrastructure spending has significantly lagged. "Investment in people" is beneficial for long-term economic development, but its effect on short-term total demand expansion is relatively limited or delayed [6][8] Group 2 - Looking ahead, land transfer income is expected to continue to decline significantly, indicating that debt reduction pressures will persist. It is also necessary to "advance the issuance of part of next year's new local government debt limits and utilize debt reduction quotas early." The current pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target seems to be between last year and the year before, with the intensity of counter-cyclical policies likely falling in between [8]

Group 1: Policy Impact - The introduction of a 3,600 yuan annual childcare subsidy is seen as limited by some residents in first-tier cities, but it is significant for low-income groups, representing 18.4% of the median disposable income of rural residents, which was 19,605 yuan in 2024[5] - The subsidy is expected to enhance national governance expectations and stimulate further central government support for social welfare and education[5] - In Hubei's Tianmen City, a substantial subsidy led to a 17% year-on-year increase in birth rates in 2024, compared to a national growth rate of 5.8%[5] Group 2: Future Expectations - The policy marks the beginning of a larger trend towards "investment in people," with potential expansions in free preschool education, which could require around 80 billion yuan if each of the 40.93 million preschoolers receives 2,000 yuan annually[5] - There is significant room for improvement in high school education funding, as central government funding accounted for only 1.73% of total ordinary high school education expenses in 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow, with a 135% increase in funds allocated for labor-based projects in Hebei, correlating with a 41.4% increase in infrastructure growth in the first quarter of 2025[5] Group 3: Human Capital Investment - Continued support for vocational education is anticipated, with various local and central government initiatives aimed at enhancing human resources to adapt to the "new and old kinetic energy conversion"[5] - The measures aimed at "investment in people" are expected to stimulate consumption across various sectors, as increased childcare support can lead to higher family spending[5] - The report highlights risks such as delayed childbirth plans due to retirement age changes and potential oversaturation of demand from the previous "Year of the Dragon" effect[5]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of "investment in people" in the government work report signifies a significant shift in investment philosophy and financing policy direction in the process of advancing Chinese-style modernization [1] Group 1: Relationship Between "Investment in People" and "Investment in Material" - "Investment in people" requires substantial "hard investment," similar to "investment in material," as the ultimate goal of any investment activity is to serve human needs and development [2] - Investments aimed at meeting production needs generally fall under "investment in material," while those focused on promoting high-quality population development and meeting life needs, especially in terms of spiritual products and services, are categorized as "investment in people" [2] - Both "investment in people" and "investment in material" necessitate significant "hard investment" to enhance the supply capacity for human needs and development [2] Group 2: Focus Areas for "Investment in People" - "Investment in people" should strengthen demand-side management and policy support, increasing fiscal, financial, employment, and income distribution policies to enable more people to access spiritual products and services [3] - Key areas for "investment in people" include high-quality housing supply, reliable food and drug safety, improved living conditions, healthcare services, education and training, cultural and sports services, tourism, and emergency response systems [6] - Regions should focus on the needs of the people, aligning government investment directions with societal expectations, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing both the quantity and quality of "hard investment" [6] Group 3: Impact on "Investment in Material" - "Investment in people" and "investment in material" should be coordinated in resource allocation, as both types of capital are complementary and mutually reinforcing [4] - It is essential not to view "investment in material" as ineffective or low-level, nor to assume that "investment in people" projects are inherently beneficial; all investments with real or potential demand contribute to economic and social development [4] - The current investment strategy should shift from primarily new construction to a balance of renovation and new investment, focusing on modern industrial systems and addressing key areas and weaknesses [5]