更多消息，持续更新中 周末明尼阿波利斯发生的致命枪击事件导致参议院民主党人要求修改一项重大支出方案，预测市场的交 易员加大了对政府再次停摆的押注。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月25日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，针对明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市 联邦边境巡逻队特工开枪打死当地居民亚历克斯·普雷蒂的事件，政府"正在审查一切"，尚未就涉案联 邦官员的行为适当性作出结论。 当地时间周一早盘，Polymarket 的数据显示，押注美国政府在1月底前发生新一轮停摆的概率高达 78%，而上周五这一概率还不到 10%。Polymarket 的数据显示，相关押注的总交易量约为750 万美元。 另一家竞争平台 Kalshi 的类似合同也显示，1月 31 日（联邦政府大部分资金即将到期）关闭的可能性 大幅增加。 此前，多位参议院民主党人周六发表措辞强硬的声明，表示他们不会支持任何拨给国土安全部的资金， 该部门下辖负责边境安全和移民执法的机构。 更多消息，持续更新中 更多消息，持续更新中 周末明尼阿波利斯发生的致命枪击事件导致参议院民主党人要求修改一项重大支出方案，预测市场的交 易员加大了对政府再次停摆的押注。 据央视新闻，当地时间1 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 据报道，预测市场显示，美国政府发生新一轮停摆的可能性接近80%。 ...

Group 1 - The odds of a US government shutdown by January 31 have surged to approximately 78%, up from just 10% three days prior, indicating increasing investor concern [1][6] - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has shifted to 'Extreme Fear', reflecting a significant change in market sentiment from neutral just a week ago [1] - The deadlock over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is a key factor driving the increased probability of a shutdown, with partisan disagreements particularly surrounding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding [3][4] Group 2 - The House of Representatives passed a stopgap funding bill with a vote of 341 to 81, but Senate Democrats have refused to advance it, contributing to the ongoing deadlock [4] - Analysts predict that if a shutdown occurs, it could lead to delayed economic data, potential credit downgrades, liquidity freezes, and a GDP contraction of approximately 0.2% per week if the impasse continues [8] - Historical patterns suggest that during previous shutdowns, such as the 43-day shutdown that ended in November 2025, gold and silver prices experienced sharp gains, which may be reflected in current market behavior [3][6]

Group 1 - Economists now expect the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts until June, a shift from previous expectations of a March cut due to persistent inflation pressures and stabilization in the labor market [1] - The anticipated inflation indicator favored by decision-makers is expected to remain above the 2% target at least until mid-next year [1] - Following three consecutive rate cuts by the end of 2025, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy costs, is projected to average 2.7% this year, easing to 2.2% by mid-2027 [2] - There are divisions among officials regarding the pace and magnitude of rate cuts, with some expressing concerns about inflation [2] - Trust in the Federal Reserve is crucial for market operations, as highlighted by the potential threats to its independence during the Trump administration [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with February gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassing $4900 per ounce on February 22, and March silver futures exceeding $96 per ounce [1][5] - Spot gold surged above $4900 per ounce, rebounding nearly $130 from the daily low, with a monthly increase of 13%, totaling nearly $600 in gains [2][6] - As of February 23, spot gold reached a historical high of $4940.78 per ounce, with an intraday increase of up to 2.26%, while platinum also broke the $2600 per ounce mark, currently at $2640.26, with a daily rise of 6.39% [2][6] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - The energy market showed divergence, with U.S. natural gas futures initially rising over 15% to $5.607 per million British thermal units on February 22, but then falling over 3% to $4.861 by February 23 [3][7] - Crude oil prices faced downward pressure, with WTI crude falling below $59 per barrel, down 2.72%, and Brent crude dropping below $63 per barrel, down 2.37% [3][7] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Geopolitical tensions escalated as U.S. President Trump announced the deployment of troops towards Iran and indicated that a 25% tariff on any entities doing business with Iran would soon take effect [4][8] - In domestic policy, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill for fiscal year 2026 to prevent a government shutdown on January 31, which has been sent to the Senate for a vote [4][8] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds for equipment renewal has been allocated, along with 625 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, totaling over 1500 billion yuan in "two new" funds this year, expected to drive total investment exceeding 4600 billion yuan [4][8]

Core Points - The U.S. Congress is expected to pass a compromise funding bill later this month to avoid a government shutdown, reducing the spending cuts sought by the Trump administration [1][2] - This action aims to prevent a repeat of the record 43-day shutdown in 2025, which disrupted government services and affected data releases [1][2] - Bipartisan cooperation is emerging as the January 30 funding deadline approaches, marking a significant shift in the situation [1][2] - Previous attempts by Democrats to block temporary funding arrangements in October and November to influence policy, specifically to extend Obamacare subsidies, were unsuccessful [1][2] - Despite rising opposition from Democrats regarding immigration raids ordered by the Trump administration, Congress members have indicated that this issue will not lead to a government shutdown [1][2] - Expired healthcare subsidies, which show little sign of revival, are also not seen as an obstacle to reaching a new funding agreement [1][2] Group 1 - Key Point 1: The bipartisan effort is aimed at avoiding a government shutdown by passing a compromise funding bill [1][2] - Key Point 2: The previous government shutdown lasted 43 days and had significant impacts on government operations [1][2] - Key Point 3: The current temporary funding arrangement is set to last until January 30 [3] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Key Democratic and Republican leaders express optimism about reaching an agreement [3] - Key Point 2: The influence of immigration policy and healthcare subsidies on the funding agreement is minimal [1][2]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve official Bostic stated that the government shutdown has distorted data, and the impact will not be fully eliminated until April or May [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a spending bill with a vote of 341 in favor and 79 against, aimed at funding most federal departments to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month [1] - The bill combines funding for the State Department and certain national security projects with funding for the Treasury Department, IRS, and other financial services, and has been submitted to the Senate for review [1] - A temporary funding bill was signed by President Trump on November 12, 2025, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted 43 days, and providing funding for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 996.76 yuan per gram, with an increase of 1.69%, reaching a high of 997.44 yuan and a low of 978.32 yuan, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The analysis of gold futures shows that prices are consistently operating between the upper and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, with a steady upward trend and strong bullish structure [4] - The trading volume has increased during price rises and decreased during pullbacks, which aligns with a healthy upward trend characteristic [4] Group 2 - President Trump has indicated that if a budget agreement is not reached, the government may face another shutdown by the end of January, with the main contention being healthcare spending [3] - There is confusion among state governments, retailers, and beneficiaries regarding the food stamp program reforms set to take effect on January 1, due to a lack of unified standards [3] - Currently, 18 states have implemented restrictions on the use of food stamps for purchasing soda and certain processed foods, highlighting the challenges at the federal level regarding food eligibility standards [3]

Core Viewpoint - The week leading up to Christmas is expected to be quiet for investors, with no earnings reports and only a few economic data releases scheduled, primarily those delayed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown [1]. Economic Reports - The week will start on Monday, Dec. 22, with no significant economic reports scheduled [2]. - On Tuesday, Dec. 23, the delayed third-quarter GDP report and October's durable goods orders will be released, along with consumer confidence data [2]. Market Schedule - Markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, Dec. 24, in observance of Christmas Eve, with the early release of Thursday's usual jobs data [3]. - Markets will be closed on Thursday, Dec. 25, for the Christmas holiday, and Friday, Dec. 26, is expected to conclude the week quietly [3].