Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Senate reached a compromise to advance a spending bill aimed at ending the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025[1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) year-end target balance is maintained at approximately $850 billion, despite previous fluctuations due to the shutdown and other factors[1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3, marking a three-and-a-half-year low, while inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%[10] Group 2: Market Performance - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported Q3 earnings, with 82% exceeding EPS expectations and overall earnings growing nearly 12% year-over-year[2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since April, with tech stocks losing approximately $800 billion in market value[9] - Retail investors continue to buy on dips, providing support for the U.S. stock market despite high valuations[2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is debating the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for caution due to high inflation and economic data delays caused by the government shutdown[9][21] - Market expectations indicate one more rate cut in December 2025 and two additional cuts in 2026[23] - Risks include stronger-than-expected economic data that could delay rate cuts and weaken support for risk assets[3][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The potential end of the US government shutdown boosted market sentiment, causing stock indices to open higher today. However, they trended downward after the opening and fluctuated until the close, with the total trading volume of the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan again. The basis of stock index futures declined, and the open interest decreased, indicating a stronger willingness among long - position holders to exit. With a relatively quiet information environment, on one hand, the long - term high - level oscillation has increased the willingness of funds to take profits, leading to a correction pressure on the index; on the other hand, policy expectations provide relatively strong support at the lower level of the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week to further verify the recovery of the fundamentals [4] Market Review - Stock indices closed lower today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.91%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.868 billion yuan. Stock index futures all declined with reduced trading volume [2] Important Information - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding market access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees - There is a glimmer of hope in the US government shutdown crisis! The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill on Sunday to fund the government until next January [3] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.84 | 11.04 | 0.3615 | 26.3184 | -0.5129 | | IH | -0.58 | 5.0142 | 0.4232 | 9.4744 | -0.1967 | | IC | -0.79 | 11.2484 | -1.0252 | 24.1256 | -0.8077 | | IM | -0.30 | 18.6082 | -0.8391 | 35.4095 | -0.0582 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.03 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.11 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 19935.86 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | -1808.68 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - European stocks are expected to continue their positive trend due to the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.K.'s FTSE index is projected to open 0.6% higher [1] - Germany's DAX is anticipated to rise by 0.3% [1] - France's CAC 40 is also expected to increase by 0.3% [1] - Italy's FTSE MIB is forecasted to gain 0.37% [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, effectively ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history [2] - The bill received a 60-40 vote, with support from some Democratic senators and nearly all Republicans [2] - Following Senate approval, the bill will be sent to the House of Representatives for further consideration [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary federal funding bill on November 10, ending a record 41-day government shutdown that began on October 1 due to the failure to pass a new funding bill [1] Group 1 - The government shutdown lasted for a record 41 days, marking a significant disruption in federal operations [1] - The temporary funding bill was necessary to prevent further financial instability within the federal government [1] - The passage of the bill indicates a resolution to the immediate funding crisis faced by the government [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Points - The U.S. Senate, led by the Republican Party, passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, effectively ending a record government shutdown [1] - The bill will be sent to the Republican-led House of Representatives for review, with a final vote expected as early as Wednesday [1] - The funding bill will maintain federal government funding until January 30 of the following year and provides full-year funding for the Department of Agriculture, military construction, and legislative bodies [1] - Democratic supporters ensured the reversal of federal layoff provisions implemented during the shutdown by the Trump administration [1] - Republican leaders committed to voting on the Affordable Care Act subsidy provisions by mid-December [1] - House Speaker Johnson informed Republican colleagues of plans to organize a full House vote as soon as Wednesday, marking the first session since the last vote on September 19 after a 50-day recess [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 to 40, which may end the 40-day government shutdown, pending House approval and Trump's signature [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested a minimum interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December, with a 50 basis point cut being more appropriate to prevent further economic slowdown [1] - Gold prices rose significantly, surpassing the $4,100 mark, with potential upward movement towards $4,150 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The U.S. fleet has heavily gathered in the Caribbean, targeting Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally at 303 billion barrels [3] - OPEC+ plans to maintain slight production increases in December but will pause increases starting in Q1 next year, signaling cautious production adjustments [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown negatively impacts oil demand, making it challenging for oil prices to rise [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices rebounded significantly, with a continuous upward trend since November 5, indicating a higher probability of stabilization [5] - Key resistance levels for copper are between $5.15 and $5.20, while support is noted around the $5.02 range [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows wide fluctuations with an upward trend, maintaining a trading range between 49,500 and 51,500 [5] - The focus is on the breakout direction from this range, with 50,700 serving as a critical line for bullish and bearish sentiment [5]

11月10日（星期一），黄金自开盘后就开始强势上涨，在冲高4053后短线受阻回落4037，随后企稳迹象慢涨走势。美盘初上涨4106附近后受阻回落下探 4074，尾盘继续强势上涨，收盘前最高上涨至4116附近，日线收出一根光头光脚的大阳线。 一、基本面 美国经济数据疲软：10月就业岗位大幅减少，11月初消费者信心指数因经济衰退担忧大幅下滑，强化美联储鸽派立场预期。 降息预期强烈：CMEGroup数据显示，市场认为12月降息概率达64%，1月升至77%左右，低利率环境提振非孳息资产黄金的吸引力。 美联储内部分歧：部分官员支持降息，部分持谨慎态度，政策不确定性为金价提供上行空间。 政府停摆影响：虽停摆有望结束，但遗留的经济创伤仍强化降息预期，未削弱黄金避险需求。 2、四小时级别：从走势结构分析，黄金在周一向上突破4046关键点位后，延续强势上涨格局。结合周末期间的推演逻辑，当前黄金大概率处于"双重三 浪"走势结构中。具体来看，前期自4381高点下跌至3886低点的过程，已形成三波调整结构，为W浪；而自3886低点开启的上涨行情为X浪，同样可按照三 波结构进行研判。 进一步拆解浪型结构：黄金自3886低点上涨至404 ...

Group 1 - Investors are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and buying risk assets as expectations rise that the federal government shutdown will soon end, leading to an increase in Treasury yields across the board [1][3] - As of the close on November 10, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 3.591%, the 10-year yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.116%, and the 30-year yield went up by 1 basis point to 4.706% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed slightly to 55 basis points [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the bipartisan negotiations for a funding bill to end the government shutdown that began on October 1, with the Senate passing a procedural measure to advance the agreement [3] - The final agreement will fund the government until the end of January but does not include the Democrats' request to extend tax credits related to the Affordable Care Act [3] - The delay in key economic reports due to the government shutdown has left investors relying on less comprehensive private surveys, including the recently released Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which showed a decline in consumer confidence [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent financial stability report highlights policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and concerns over high long-term interest rates and fiscal debt sustainability as primary risks to financial stability [4] - The report indicates that hedge fund leverage has reached its highest level since comprehensive data collection began in 2013 [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are significant, with a 64.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 4 - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials regarding further rate cuts are intensifying, driven by inflation pressures and weak employment [5] - In the European bond market, yields are rising, with German, Italian, and French bond yields all experiencing increases [5] - Japanese financial institutions are adjusting their forecasts for the yen's exchange rate against the dollar, anticipating depreciation due to concerns over fiscal policies and interest rate expectations [5][7]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate took a significant step towards ending the longest government shutdown in history by advancing a temporary funding bill with bipartisan support, marking a rare collaboration between Democrats and Republicans [1][3] - The government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of approximately $15 billion per week, contributing to a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level in three years [1][8] - The funding bill does not include extensions for the Affordable Care Act subsidies, leading to internal divisions within the Democratic Party and dissatisfaction among some members [1][4][5] Legislative Developments - The Senate voted 60-40 to break the filibuster on the funding bill, with support from seven Democratic senators and one independent senator, while only one Republican senator voted against it [3] - The proposed funding will provide financial support for most federal agencies until January 30, and it will also prevent layoffs of federal employees during the shutdown [3][4] - The bill still requires approval from the House of Representatives and the President to fully end the government shutdown [3] Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has severely affected various sectors, including the airline industry, with over 2,700 flights canceled and more than 10,000 delayed, impacting over 4 million passengers since the shutdown began [7][8] - Economic experts warn that continued shutdown could lead to a significant reduction in GDP growth, with potential negative growth in the fourth quarter if travel disruptions continue during the Thanksgiving holiday [8] Internal Party Dynamics - There is significant discontent among Democrats regarding the compromise reached, with some viewing it as a capitulation to Republican demands, particularly concerning healthcare issues [5][6] - Prominent Democratic figures have expressed their frustration, indicating that the party's internal divisions may deepen as a result of this compromise [5][6] - The situation highlights the ongoing struggle between the party's progressive and moderate factions, which may affect future legislative negotiations [6]