1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic equity market weakened, and the growth of US retail sales slowed down. Precious metal prices stabilized, and copper prices rebounded after a decline. Aluminum prices oscillated and corrected. The short - term upward trend of copper prices is difficult, and the rebound height of aluminum prices is restricted. Lead prices show a strong short - term oscillation. Zinc prices rebounded slightly. Tin supply is expected to loosen, and if demand remains weak, the price center may shift down. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish view. Lithium carbonate prices face pressure, and the disk may continue to test the industry's acceptance. Alumina supply has disturbances, and a long - short strategy is recommended. Stainless steel prices rose, but the long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season cycle [1][3][4][6][9][10][12][14][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper rose slightly by 0.08% to $9600/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,490 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 77,800 - 79,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and $9500 - 9700/ton for LME copper [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by nearly 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 61,000 tons [1]. - **Market situation**: The spot in Shanghai turned to a premium over futures, and the demand in Guangdong was weak. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained at about 250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,220 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 20,100 - 20,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and $2460 - 2520/ton for LME aluminum [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons to 397,275 tons [3]. - **Market situation**: The spot in East China was at a premium over futures, and the overall destocking speed was fast, but the demand improvement may face challenges [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.20% to 16,971 yuan/ton, and LME lead rose to $1984.5/ton. It is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 56,000 tons, and the SHFE lead inventory was 49,400 tons [4]. - **Market situation**: The lead concentrate port inventory increased, the production of primary lead enterprises was high, and the production of recycled lead enterprises decreased [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.49% to 22,494 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $2755/ton. Zinc prices rebounded slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 86,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts remained at a low level [6]. - **Market situation**: The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the processing fee rose, and the Russian Longxin lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices [6]. Tin - **Price**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 265,210 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The expected price range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for domestic contracts and $30,000 - 33,000/ton for LME tin [8][9]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 16 tons to 8163 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2745 tons [8]. - **Market situation**: The mine supply is expected to loosen, and the restocking willingness of the electronics and home appliance industries is low due to tariffs [9]. Nickel - **Price**: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 125,230 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and LME nickel closed at $15,805/ton, up 0.03%. The expected price range is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and $15,000 - 16,300/ton for LME nickel [10]. - **Market situation**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the demand for high - nickel pig iron weakened, and the price of nickel continued to be bearish [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index was flat at 64,727 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 64,120 yuan, down 1.66%. The expected price range is 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory increased by 351 tons to 131,920 tons, and the production remained high with great inventory pressure [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 1.56% to 2987 yuan/ton. The expected price range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10,500 tons to 193,300 tons [14]. - **Market situation**: The supply is disturbed, and a long - short strategy is recommended [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,995 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The profit of steel mills improved, but the downstream demand did not increase substantially [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1.1083 million tons [16].

Core Insights - The overall production of the non-ferrous metal industry is maintaining steady growth, with domestic consumption increasing moderately and investment and trade remaining active [1] - The establishment of the "Jintai Non-Ferrous Metal Research Center" aims to explore future development opportunities and promote the transformation and upgrading of the non-ferrous metal industry [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The prices of basic metals such as aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and tin have been fluctuating at high levels since 2024, while nickel, cobalt, lithium, and silicon have entered a downturn after previous gains [1] - The market for metals like indium, germanium, gallium, selenium, tellurium, antimony, and bismuth has seen price increases due to trade policy impacts, with some individual varieties like antimony and germanium exceeding expected price increases [1] Group 2: Copper Market Outlook - Antai expects a phase of supply shortage in the copper market by 2025, which will disrupt China's refined copper production, while global trade uncertainties will negatively impact the copper supply chain [2] - Despite these challenges, the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact, with the average price in 2025 expected to be higher than in 2024 [2] Group 3: Aluminum and Tin Price Projections - For aluminum, Antai predicts that long-term supply constraints will support prices, but a decrease in exports and potential weakening domestic demand may limit price increases, leading to a trend of high prices followed by lower prices [2] - Tin prices are expected to remain supported by a de-inventorying market, with a slight growth in demand projected despite potential impacts from tariff wars [2] Group 4: Precious Metals and Lithium Forecast - Antai forecasts that international gold prices will continue to show a trend of oscillating upward, potentially reaching between $4,000 and $4,100 per ounce [3] - For silver, stable but weak growth in global supply is anticipated, while demand driven by the photovoltaic industry may lead to a continued supply shortage, resulting in high price fluctuations [3] - In the lithium market, a bottom support for prices is gradually emerging, with expectations for a wide oscillation in prices between 60,000 and 90,000 yuan per ton by 2025 [3]

1、投资建议 行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 3 月 10 日 有色金属周度观察 周度有色指数表现 上周（20250303-20250309）有色金属板块涨跌幅为 7.1%，在中信 行业指数中，涨跌幅按大小排第 2 位。分板块看，上周涨跌幅表现较 好的是铅锌(中信)12%；表现较差的锂 2.6%。从公司表现看，上周涨 跌幅从大到小排列，居前的为华钰矿业 47.8%、永茂泰 40.8%、宜安 科技 32.2%、湖南黄金 29.4%、华锡有色 25.1%；居后的为利源股份 -9.0%、中润资源-8.9%、济南高新-3.8%、大地熊-3.3%、东方锆业- 3.0%。 有色行业数据周度观察 贵金属主要是黄金和白银，根据最新数据（20250303-20250309）， SHFE 黄金区间涨跌幅为 1.1%，SHFE 白银涨跌幅为 2.0%。 工 业 金 属 品 种 价 格 基 本 均 上 涨 。 具 体 看 ， 六 大 工 业 金 属 品 种 （20250303-20250309）区间涨跌幅如下：（以期货收盘价-活跃合约 为指标计算）：阴极铜为 1.6%，铝 0.8%，铅为 0.9%，锌 1.0%，锡为 2.5%， ...