Group 1 - Trump's unexpected statement about potentially reaching a new agreement with China within a month and not raising tax rates has sparked significant discussion [2] - This shift in stance is interpreted as a response to strong backlash against his policies, indicating that his previous hardline approach is no longer sustainable [5][7] - Polls show over half of respondents are dissatisfied with Trump's economic policies, with his economic approval rating dropping to 43%, the lowest during his presidency [5][7] Group 2 - There is a growing pessimism among Americans regarding the economy, with notable criticism from former Democratic presidents who express concerns about Trump's policies [7][9] - Some Republican lawmakers are beginning to voice their discontent with the tariff policies, with even Trump's allies questioning the impact on American consumers [9] - Over 900 economists and business leaders have called for an end to the "reciprocal tariffs," citing negative effects on U.S. manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer markets [12] Group 3 - Inflation is affecting everyday life, with reports of egg prices soaring to $15 per dozen, indicating severe price instability [12] - Trump has clashed with the Federal Reserve over interest rate policies, seeking cuts to stimulate consumption, but the Fed has resisted these requests [12][14] - Trump's strategy to isolate China has backfired, as traditional allies like Japan and the UK express reluctance to align with U.S. policies against China [14][15] Group 4 - China's response to the trade war has been proactive, with a commitment to open economic cooperation, indicating a shift from passive defense to active engagement in reshaping global trade dynamics [17] - The failure of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy is evident as he faces domestic dissent and international isolation, struggling to address the root causes of these issues [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Donald Trump's political strategies and their implications in the context of changing international dynamics, emphasizing his adaptability and focus on personal and political interests [2][10]. Group 1: Trump's Business Background and Political Rise - Trump, born in 1946, leveraged his business acumen and media presence to become a prominent political figure, notably through his book "The Art of the Deal," which outlines his "maximum pressure" negotiation tactics [3][4]. - His political success in 2016 was attributed to his appeal to the "silent majority," particularly white working-class voters, by promising job creation and economic revival through protectionist measures [4][5]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - In 2024, the U.S. accounted for 39% of the global trade deficit, amounting to $1.15 trillion, a 34% increase since 2017, highlighting the significance of trade relations under Trump's policies [5]. - Trump's use of tariffs as a diplomatic tool has raised concerns about inflation risks, particularly for lower-income households who are more sensitive to price increases [12][13]. Group 3: Political Strategy and Alliances - Trump's approach often involves leveraging allies for financial and political gain, as seen in his past statements about making allies pay their fair share [6][9]. - His relationships with influential figures like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos illustrate the potential volatility of alliances, especially when personal interests are at stake [9][10]. Group 4: Flexibility and Response to Challenges - Trump's ability to adapt his strategies in response to economic pressures, such as adjusting tariff policies to mitigate market impacts, showcases his focus on personal and political interests [10][11]. - The article suggests that if Trump's political interests are threatened by economic fallout from tariffs, he is likely to modify his approach to maintain support [11][12].

既聪明又粗糙，既容易犯错也容易改错。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 生于1946年的特朗普，人生大部分时间都处在Pax Americana治下。敏锐的嗅觉让特朗普看到了美国 的深层次问题，强大的表演力帮他两度走上总统宝座，极限施压和同盟操戈的做派让他在第一任期尝到 过甜头。 一、嗅觉敏锐，表演力强 作为商人，特朗普勉强算是成功的。22岁毕业于沃顿商学院，随后在父亲的房地产公司"特朗普管理公 司"就职，25岁从五个兄弟姐妹中脱颖而出，被父亲任命为公司总裁。虽然几度濒临破产，到80年代 逐步成为房地产大亨。 让特朗普从成功商人成为家喻户晓人物的，是他在1987年发表的书籍《交易的艺术》（The Art of the Deal），该书曾连续32周位居《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜榜首。 正是这本书描述了特朗普标志性 的"极限施压"策略：激化矛盾、极限施压，将局势推向灾难边缘，试图在最后一刻达成交易。 特朗普的极限施压之所以可行，不在于威胁本身，而是敏锐的嗅觉和强大的表演力让他时常能发现和利 用对手的弱点。 这种特质帮助特朗普在2016年第一次登上总统宝座。 作为政治素人，特朗普精准的找到了美国"沉默 的大多数"，这些白人蓝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government strongly opposes the U.S. decision to impose an additional 10% tariff on most Chinese goods, asserting that the root cause of the fentanyl issue lies within the U.S. itself and emphasizing the need for dialogue and cooperation rather than pressure tactics [1]. Group 1 - The Chinese government has reiterated its stance against the U.S. tariffs, describing the countermeasures taken as legitimate and necessary to protect its own interests [1]. - The Chinese side claims to have taken humanitarian measures to assist the U.S. in addressing the fentanyl problem, which has been acknowledged by various U.S. individuals [1]. - The Chinese government criticizes the U.S. for using tariffs as a means of coercion, stating that such actions will not resolve the U.S. issues and will damage bilateral cooperation in drug control [1]. Group 2 - The Chinese government emphasizes that pressure and threats are not effective methods for engaging with China, and warns the U.S. against pursuing a strategy of extreme pressure [1]. - It is suggested that if the U.S. genuinely seeks to resolve the fentanyl issue, it should engage in discussions based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. - The Chinese government expresses readiness to respond to any trade conflicts initiated by the U.S., urging the latter to abandon its bullying tactics and return to a path of dialogue and cooperation [1].