Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates more than the market currently anticipates [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Algebris Investments analyst Gabriele Foa suggests that trade tensions and tariff developments could result in a lower endpoint for the rate-cutting cycle than what the market expects [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the ECB is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in December [1] Group 2: Timeframe for Effects - Foa notes that the spillover effects of tariffs on Europe may take longer to manifest [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from MUFG express that the European Central Bank's (ECB) concerns regarding the recent appreciation of the euro are unlikely to prevent its continued strength [1] Group 1: ECB Concerns - The ECB's increasing unease about the euro's recent appreciation may suppress its upward momentum in the short term [1] - However, such concerns are not expected to trigger a sustained decline in the euro's value [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite the potential for a stronger euro to lead to lower inflation, market participants have shown decreased confidence in the ECB's likelihood of further rate cuts this year [1] - The threat of U.S. tariffs has not significantly influenced market expectations for additional rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, as it assesses the economic risks posed by tariffs and other factors [1] Group 1: Economic Risks - The ECB is expected to pause interest rate cuts to evaluate the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - Concerns about the strong euro are suppressing price outlooks and further squeezing exporters [1] - Potential public finance issues in France may lead to new political crises [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - ECB policymakers may acknowledge an increased likelihood of rate cuts in September [1] - Morgan Stanley economists predict that ECB President Christine Lagarde will reiterate that growth risks are "tilted to the downside" in her upcoming statement [1] - The ECB is expected to keep the possibility of further rate cuts open without making a firm commitment [1]

然而，如果关税真的实施，潜在的经济损害是巨大的。这家华尔街银行估计，持续30%的关税将使欧元 区的国内生产总值（GDP）到2026年底累计下降1.2%。 巴克莱银行的经济学家也表达了同样的情绪，预测经济活动将出现"更深的近期收缩"。他们认为，一次 大规模的关税上调可能会使欧元区的实际GDP增长再削减0.7个百分点。 美国总统特朗普威胁要对欧盟商品征收30%的关税，一些投行警告称，此举可能引发欧盟"持久且更深 的经济放缓"，并可能迫使欧洲央行降息。 上周末，特朗普以致欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的信函形式，公布了新的税率。他补充说，如果欧盟以更 高的关税进行报复，"那么，无论你们选择提高多少，都将在我们收取的30%基础上再叠加。" 高盛表示，致欧盟的这封信出人意料，在各方原以为贸易谈判正"富有建设性"地进行之后，它"重新点 燃了对欧元区前景的担忧"。高盛的首席欧洲经济学家Sven Jari Stehn在7月13日给客户的一份报告中 说： "话虽如此，特朗普的威胁很可能是一种谈判策略，并且（目前）我们维持我们的基线情 景，即可以达成一项维持当前关税税率的'框架协议'，其中包括对所有商品征收10%的关 税，以及对钢铁/铝 ...

瑞银：预计欧洲央行将在9月降息25个基点，此前预测为7月降息。 ...

欧央行官员释放降息信号：视经济增长与通胀而定 金十数据7月11日讯，欧洲央行执委帕内塔表示，如果经济扩张不及预期，并过度拖累通胀，欧洲央行 应进一步降息。他同时强调，决策者将在政策制定上保持灵活和务实的态度，根据最新信息及其对通胀 前景的影响，逐次会议做出判断。市场目前普遍预期欧洲央行将暂时停止降息步伐。原因之一是欧美贸 易关系仍不明朗，而俄乌和中东冲突也加剧了经济前景的不确定性。尽管如此，投资者仍押注年底前欧 洲央行还将再降息一次。帕内塔重申了央行此前的说法："我们目前处于一个可以谨慎权衡下一步行动 的位置。" ...

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔称，欧洲央行进一步降息的门槛非常高。 ...

欧洲央行管委Nagel：欧洲央行既不应计划也不应排除进一步降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Centeno, stated that the timing and extent of further interest rate cuts are difficult to determine [1] Group 1 - The ECB is currently facing challenges in predicting future interest rate adjustments [1] - Centeno emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the economic environment, which complicates decision-making regarding rate cuts [1] - The comments reflect ongoing discussions within the ECB about monetary policy direction in response to economic conditions [1]