Group 1 - The automotive stocks are experiencing a significant rise, with Xpeng Motors up 6.18% at HKD 80.75, Leap Motor up 5.33% at HKD 52.6, BYD up 4.75% at HKD 98.05, and Geely up 4.79% at HKD 17.71 [1] - A report from Founder Securities indicates that the central economic work conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting enterprises for vehicle replacement programs [1] - Media reports suggest that the national subsidy will continue until 2026, with a maximum subsidy of CNY 30,000 per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy vehicles and increasing the pure electric range threshold for hybrid models [1] Group 2 - The report notes that after the exit of replacement and upgrade subsidies in various regions, the industry has not seen a tail effect, and the pressure in the car market is expected to increase in Q1 2026 due to the gradual reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions [1] - Positive signals are continuously released from the policy side, with the National Market Supervision Administration publishing compliance guidelines for automotive industry pricing behavior, leading to a response from companies like BYD and Xpeng, resulting in a slowdown in price competition and an improved competitive environment [1] - Some cities have begun deploying new national subsidy-related work, indicating that the industry may see the implementation of policy details and supplementary support, highlighting the bottom configuration value of leading automotive companies and the potential for policy-driven market improvement [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced a surge, with Leap Motor rising over 6%, XPeng and NIO increasing over 5%, and Geely and BYD up over 4% [1][6] - Great Wall Motors and Li Auto saw gains of over 3%, while Seres and Chery Auto rose over 2% [1][6] Group 2 - On December 28, China FAW Group held a signing ceremony with Leap Motor in Hangzhou, where FAW's wholly-owned subsidiary signed investment and cooperation agreements with Leap Motor [3][8] - According to the agreements, FAW will become a strategic shareholder in Leap Motor through a domestic share issuance, and will collaborate on the joint development and production of plug-in hybrid and range-extended powertrains [3][8] - A report from Founder Securities noted that the Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting old-for-new platform enterprises [3][8] - Media reports indicate that national subsidies will continue until 2026, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy vehicles and increasing the pure electric range threshold for hybrid models [3][8]

Group 1 - The automotive stocks are experiencing a significant rise, with Xpeng Motors up 6.18% at HKD 80.75, Li Auto up 5.33% at HKD 52.6, BYD up 4.75% at HKD 98.05, and Geely up 4.79% at HKD 17.71 [1] - According to a report from Founder Securities, the Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting enterprises for vehicle replacement programs [1] - Media reports indicate that the national subsidy will continue until 2026, with a maximum subsidy of CNY 30,000 per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy vehicles and increasing the pure electric range threshold for hybrid models [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that after the exit of replacement and upgrade subsidies in various regions, the industry did not experience a tail effect, and the pressure on the car market is expected to increase in Q1 2026 due to the gradual reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions starting in 2026 [1] - Positive signals are continuously released from the policy side, with the National Market Supervision Administration issuing compliance guidelines for automotive industry pricing behavior, leading to a response from companies like BYD and Xpeng, resulting in a slowdown in price competition and an ongoing optimization of the competitive environment [1] - Some cities have begun deploying new national subsidy-related work, indicating that the industry is likely to see the implementation of policy details and supplementary support, highlighting the bottom configuration value of leading automotive companies and the potential for future policy-driven market improvements [1]

2025.12. 24 本文字数：2700，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄琳 中央定调明年继续实施"国补"后，多地已开始部署2026年"新国补"。 近日闭幕的中央经济工作会议，在部署明年经济工作重点任务时明确指出，坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场，并要求优化"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策实施。财政部党组书记、 部长蓝佛安日前主持召开党组会议时也明确指出，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和 服务业经营主体贷款"双贴息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行动。 第一财经记者统计显示，目前已有超过5个地市公开遴选以旧换新平台服务企业，包括深圳市、阳江 市、韶关市、宁波市等。对于企业的要求聚焦在核验申请人实名能力、防黄牛防刷单的风控能力、数 据运营和平台维护能力、服务响应能力等。值得关注的是，深圳发布的通知明确，是遴选2026年汽 车以旧换新补贴平台服务企业。换句话说，2026年汽车以旧换新政策有望延续。 国补入选企业需强化风控 2025年以来，国内车市受"两新"政策拉动效应明显。根据商务部数据，2025年前11个月，消费品 以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人 ...

中央定调明年继续实施"国补"后，多地已开始部署2026年"新国补"。 近日闭幕的中央经济工作会议，在部署明年经济工作重点任务时明确指出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国 内市场，并要求优化"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策实施。财政部党组书记、部长蓝 佛安日前主持召开党组会议时也明确指出，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营 主体贷款"双贴息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行动。 第一财经记者统计显示，目前已有超过5个地市公开遴选以旧换新平台服务企业，包括深圳市、阳江 市、韶关市、宁波市等。对于企业的要求聚焦在核验申请人实名能力、防黄牛防刷单的风控能力、数据 运营和平台维护能力、服务响应能力等。值得关注的是，深圳发布的通知明确，是遴选2026年汽车以旧 换新补贴平台服务企业。换句话说，2026年汽车以旧换新政策有望延续。 国补入选企业需强化风控 2025年以来，国内车市受"两新"政策拉动效应明显。根据商务部数据，2025年前11个月，消费品以旧换 新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆。展望2026 年，新一轮汽车以旧换新政策有望延续，持 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ "2025年汽车'以旧换新'规模预计超1800亿元，且新能源车2万多亿销售额对应2000多亿车购税被减免， 因此在近4000亿元的政策支持下，2025年车市实现超预期增长。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树分析表示。 汽车"以旧换新"全年超1120万辆 根据商务部数据显示，今年1-11月，消费品"以旧换新"带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，其中汽车"以 旧换新"超1120万辆。另据中汽协数据，今年1-11月我国汽车销量达到3112.7万辆。这意味着补贴政策带 动的换新销量已占整体市场的三分之一以上，促进汽车消费效果显著。 从汽车市场月度走势来看，剔除春节因素后，2025年国内车市零售累计增速呈现阶段性特征：1-2月累 计增长1.2%，3-6月增速攀升至15%，7-9月增速回落至6%左右徘徊，10-11月进一步进入偏低区间。 2025年开年，商务部等八部门办公厅联合印发《关于做好2025年汽车以旧换新工作的通知》，明确当年 年汽车"以旧换新"补贴政策。年初，受春节假期前置、消费需求阶段性滞后等因素叠加影响，车市呈现 阶段性调整。进入3月，伴随系列政策 ...

Core Insights - The B-class fuel SUV market experienced a year-on-year decline of 27% in November, with a month-on-month increase of 6% compared to October, indicating significant growth pressure [1][13] - The luxury B-class SUV segment saw a year-on-year decline of 22.6% in November, but a month-on-month increase of 14.6%, showing better monthly performance than the mainstream B-class fuel SUV market [1][13] - The traditional winter market is underperforming, with a severe drop in sales of homogeneous products, while differentiated products are performing well, reflecting a clear trend of high-end consumer upgrades [1] Market Trends - The retail growth rate of the domestic passenger car market fluctuated significantly in 2025, starting with a 1.2% increase in January-February, peaking at 15% from March to June, and then declining to -8% in November [1][4] - The market is currently in a transitional phase due to the adjustment of subsidy policies, which has led to a slowdown in sales [7][20] - The overall retail sales in the fourth quarter are expected to create a favorable growth space for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, following strong performance during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [19][20] Sales Performance - In November, the retail sales of fuel passenger vehicles dropped by 22% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [10][11] - The luxury B-class SUV market saw significant declines, with major brands like Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW experiencing year-on-year drops exceeding 20% [14][15] - The only model showing positive growth in this segment was the Cadillac XT5, which achieved a 7% year-on-year increase in sales, highlighting potential opportunities in a contracting market [14][15] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly rational, focusing on the practical value of products rather than just luxury branding, which is reshaping the luxury vehicle market [15] - Safety has become a critical concern in the automotive industry, with brands like Cadillac emphasizing safety features to enhance consumer value perception [15] Future Outlook - The automotive market is expected to continue facing challenges in 2026, with intensified competition and the need for brands to maintain distinctiveness and differentiation [19][20] - The continuation and optimization of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is anticipated to significantly boost automotive consumption potential in the coming years [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][18]. Core Insights - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy is expected to bolster demand resilience in 2026, although the marginal stimulus from subsidies is diminishing, leading to increased competition among domestic automakers [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the industry, particularly for companies that can differentiate their products [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The automotive index remained flat over the past week, with the new energy vehicle index down by 1% [2][8]. - Year-to-date, the automotive index has increased by 19%, while the new energy vehicle index has only risen by 1% [9][10]. 2. Vehicle Trade-in Policy Continuation - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to boost consumption and investment efficiency, extending the "two new" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [15]. - From January to November 2025, the trade-in policy facilitated over 11.2 million vehicle exchanges [15]. 3. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high cost-performance ratios and emerging technologies, recommending leading firms such as Dechang Motor Holdings and Haoneng Co [18]. - It highlights the competitive pressure in the passenger vehicle market and recommends companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor for their differentiated product strategies [18]. - The report also identifies opportunities in the data center power supply sector, recommending Weichai Power and Yuchai International [18]. 4. Key Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, all rated as "Overweight" [19]. - Notable recommendations include BYD, which has a projected EPS of 3.80 for 2025, and Great Wall Motors, with an EPS of 1.53 for the same year [19].

12月11日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，由于以旧换新补贴力度较强，2025年汽车以旧换新规模预计 超1800亿元；且新能源车车购税优惠10%，惠及的销量比2024年多22%，意味着新能源车销售额2万多 亿元所对应的2000多亿元的车辆购置税被减免，因此在近4000亿元的免税和补贴政策支持下，2025年车 市超预期增长。 ...

中国汽车流通协会：12月第一周，二手车市场呈现显著回暖特征 中国汽车流通协会指出，12月第一周，二手车市场呈现显著回暖特征，日均交易量6.75万辆，环比上周 增长3.46%，交易规模与增速均超出行业预期。本轮增长主要源于两方面驱动：渠道层面，新车经销商 为完成年度销售目标，启动"清库冲刺"策略；二手车车源丰富；需求层面，年底消费旺季效应显现，企 业年终奖发放、节日出行需求增加等因素推动购车意愿提升，调研显示超6成消费者认为"年底是购车最 佳时机"。值得关注的是，新能源二手车交易活跃度持续攀升，本周占比达18.3%，环比增加2.1个百分 点，反映出市场结构向新能源化加速转型。 中汽协：汽车产销量全年有望再创历史新高 乘联分会崔东树：2025年汽车以旧换新规模预计超1800亿元 12月11日，中汽协表示，11月，汽车产销延续良好表现。企业抢抓政策窗口期，生产供给依然保持较快 节奏，在高基数基础上，产销环比、同比均实现增长。其中，乘用车市场运行平稳，商用车市场持续向 好，新能源汽车表现强劲，汽车出口较快增长。展望全年，汽车内需市场在政策组合效应推动下有效改 善，新动能加快释放，对外贸易呈现出较好韧性，汽车产销量全年 ...