国内盈利承压，全球化贡献增量 ——汽车行业2025Q3业绩综述 长江证券研究所汽车研究小组 2025-11-16 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 高伊楠 分析师 张永乾 分析师 王子豪 分析师 张扬 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517060001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524030002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524030004 SFC执业证书编号：BUW101 联系人 麦贻智 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 乘用车：总量较好增长，盈利能力整体承 压 02 零部件：板块持续分化，全球化企业驱动 新一轮成长 03 货车：以旧换新政策刺激，下游总量显 著回升 04 轻卡和客车：以旧换新催动内需，出海持 续拓展，Q3客车业绩向好 目 录 05 两轮车：中大排量摩托车市场快速扩容， 强新车供给车企开启新增长 %% research.95579.com 3 总述 01 ➢ 乘用车：总量较好增长，盈利能力 ...

工业和信息化部、财政部、税务总局日前发布《2026—2027年减免车辆购置税新能源汽车产品技术要求 的公告》，2023年6月，国务院常务会议确定2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日减半征收车辆购置税，且 对新能源乘用车设定减免限额，2026年新能源汽车将迎来技术标准与减税额度的双重调整。记者从省税 务局了解到，新政施行前后，消费者申报享受新能源车优惠政策将无缝衔接，2025年12月31日前购置的 车辆仍按原免征政策执行，申报时沿用原流程，操作无额外负担。购置日期以机动车销售发票开具日期 为准，消费者跨年购车时，需特别注意时间节点。 以不含税价10万元车型为例，2025年可免缴1万元税款；2026年减半后，需缴0.5万元，仍享0.5万元优 惠；乘用车减税额按上限1.5万元执行，避免豪华车型挤占资源。新政调整了新能源乘用车产品技术要 求。2026年1月1日起，列入《减免车辆购置税的新能源汽车车型目录》（下称《减免税目录》）的车 型，需符合公告要求；2025年12月31日前已列入《减免税目录》且符合公告技术要求的车型，自动转入 2026年第1期《减免税目录》，不符合要求的车型将从《减免税目录》中撤销。2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in October 2025, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old vehicles, despite a slight month-on-month decline in sales compared to September 2025 [2][5][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, approximately 93,000 heavy trucks were sold, marking a 40% year-on-year increase from 66,400 units in the same month last year, although it represents a 12% decrease from September 2025 [2][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the heavy truck market has sold over 916,000 units, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, with expectations to surpass 1 million units by November [5]. - The average growth rate from April to October 2025 has been 39%, with consistent year-on-year increases observed each month [2][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in the heavy truck market is largely attributed to the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has been a significant driver since April 2025 [8]. - Despite some local governments suspending subsidies due to fiscal constraints, the release of the last batch of subsidy funds in late September has reignited some support for the market [8]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The natural gas heavy truck segment has seen a remarkable increase, with terminal sales expected to grow by approximately 120% year-on-year in October 2025, following a 149% increase in September [10][12]. - The electric heavy truck segment is also performing well, with an anticipated terminal sales volume of around 20,000 units in October 2025, representing over a 140% year-on-year increase [12]. - Diesel heavy trucks are projected to see a nearly 20% increase in terminal sales in October 2025, contributing significantly to overall market growth [14].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is actively launching subsidy programs to attract orders as the deadline for the half-reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax approaches, with companies like Deep Blue, NIO, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Zeekr implementing various strategies to secure sales before the policy change [1][3][4]. Group 1: Subsidy Programs - Deep Blue launched a "cross-year delivery purchase tax cash subsidy plan" on October 25, 2023, to support consumers who lock in orders this year [1]. - NIO introduced a similar "lock order" plan on September 20, 2023, offering a purchase tax difference subsidy coupon for orders completed by December 31, 2025, which can offset up to 15,000 yuan of the vehicle price [3]. - Other companies like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Zeekr have also rolled out subsidy plans, with Li Auto providing cash reductions on the final payment to cover the purchase tax difference [3]. Group 2: Policy Background - The coordinated actions of car manufacturers are influenced by the announcement from the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the extension and optimization of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy [4]. - The policy states that vehicles purchased between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2025, will be exempt from purchase tax, while those purchased between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027, will have a 50% reduction, with a maximum tax reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [4]. Group 3: Delivery Times and Market Dynamics - The extended delivery times for vehicles, such as the Xiaomi YU7 PRO with an estimated delivery of 42-45 weeks, have prompted companies to offer tax subsidy plans to mitigate consumer concerns about potential tax increases [5]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with over 70 new models launched in September 2023, leading consumers to reassess their purchasing decisions based on the changing tax policies [6]. - The automotive market is entering a peak sales period, with a reported 35.4% increase in customer engagement in early October compared to September, driven by favorable policies and consumer incentives [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the taxation policies related to the sale of takeaway food by catering enterprises, stating that they should pay value-added tax (VAT) as per the provision of catering services [5][8] - It clarifies that only food products that the catering enterprise has participated in the production and processing of are considered takeaway food for VAT purposes [5] - For beverages and agricultural products sold alongside takeaway food without further processing, VAT should be calculated based on the applicable tax rate for those goods [5][8] Group 2 - The article addresses whether franchise fees obtained from chain franchising are subject to VAT, indicating that such fees should be taxed as "other equity intangible assets" [6][7] - It references the relevant policy document that outlines the taxation framework for services and intangible assets [7] Group 3 - It explains that general VAT taxpayers in the catering industry can deduct input tax when purchasing self-produced agricultural products from agricultural producers, using invoices approved by tax authorities [8] - The article cites the policy document that provides guidance on the management of VAT pilot programs [9] Group 4 - The article outlines changes in the vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles (NEVs) for the years 2026-2027, highlighting a shift from exemption to a 50% reduction in tax [17][18] - It specifies that the maximum tax reduction per vehicle will be capped at 30,000 yuan for 2026 and 15,000 yuan for 2027 [18][19] - The article emphasizes the importance of the purchase date as determined by the issuance date of valid documents such as sales invoices or customs payment receipts [19] Group 5 - It details the technical requirements for NEVs, including energy consumption limits for pure electric vehicles and fuel consumption limits for plug-in hybrid vehicles [27][31] - The article notes that vehicles listed in the tax exemption directory must meet these technical requirements to qualify for tax reductions starting January 1, 2026 [35][36]

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration have jointly announced a vehicle purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027 [1][2] - New technical requirements for pure electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles (including range-extended hybrids) have been established, including specific energy consumption limits [1] Group 1: Technical Requirements for Pure Electric Vehicles - Pure electric passenger vehicles must not exceed the energy consumption limit specified in GB 36980.1—2025 for corresponding models [1] - For passenger vehicles with a maximum design total mass exceeding 3500 kg, the energy consumption limit will follow the same standard as that for 3500 kg vehicles [1] Group 2: Technical Requirements for Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles - Plug-in hybrid vehicles must have an all-electric range of at least 100 km under certain conditions [1] - Fuel consumption limits for plug-in hybrids are set at less than 70% for vehicles with a curb weight below 2510 kg and less than 75% for those at or above 2510 kg [1] - Energy consumption limits for plug-in hybrids must be less than 140% for vehicles under 2510 kg and less than 145% for those at or above 2510 kg [1] Group 3: Implementation Timeline - From January 1, 2026, vehicles listed in the "Directory of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemption" must comply with the new requirements [2] - Vehicles purchased from the directory after its publication will be eligible for the tax exemption policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the introduction of a new policy for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026-2027, emphasizing the need for manufacturers to enhance their technology and efficiency to qualify for subsidies [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, and State Taxation Administration jointly announced adjustments to the technical requirements for NEVs to qualify for purchase tax exemptions in 2026-2027 [2]. - The existing policy of halving the purchase tax for NEVs will continue, but vehicles with high energy consumption or insufficient electric range will not receive subsidies, indicating a competitive environment focused on technology [5]. Group 2: New Vehicle Launches - The new Geely Star Wish was launched on October 10, with a limited-time price range of 65,800 to 95,800 yuan [6][7]. - The new model offers six variants with prices and specifications aimed at maintaining competitive positioning in the market [10]. - The vehicle features a design that retains the current model's aesthetics while introducing new color options and upgraded configurations without increasing prices, which may help sustain sales performance [18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The introduction of the new tax exemption policy and the launch of new models like the Geely Star Wish indicate a shift in the NEV market towards a focus on technological advancements and competitive pricing [5][18]. - Other manufacturers are also launching new models, such as the Tesla Model Y and Xpeng P7+, which aim to meet diverse consumer needs and enhance market share [22][32].

Core Points - The announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, and State Taxation Administration clarifies the technical requirements for new energy vehicles (NEVs) eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions during the 2026-2027 period [1] - The policy specifies that from January 1, 2026, only NEVs listed in the "Directory of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemption" must meet the new technical requirements to qualify for tax benefits [1] Summary by Sections Electric Passenger Vehicles - The energy consumption limit for pure electric passenger vehicles must not exceed the specified limits in the standard GB 36980.1-2025 [2] - For passenger vehicles with a maximum design total mass exceeding 3500 kg, the energy consumption limit will follow the same standard for vehicles weighing 3500 kg [2] Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles - Plug-in hybrid vehicles must have an equivalent all-electric range of no less than 100 km [3] - The fuel consumption limit for plug-in hybrids in electric mode must be less than 70% for vehicles weighing under 2510 kg and less than 75% for those weighing 2510 kg and above, compared to the limits in GB 19578-2024 [3] - For plug-in hybrids, the energy consumption limit in electric mode must be less than 140% for vehicles under 2510 kg and less than 145% for those above [4] Additional Requirements - Other technical requirements will continue to follow the previous announcement regarding tax exemption for NEVs [4] - Vehicles listed in the directory before December 31, 2025, must comply with the new technical requirements to remain eligible for tax exemptions starting January 1, 2026 [4] - Vehicles that do not meet the requirements can reapply for inclusion in the directory [4] Tax Exemption Implementation - From January 1, 2026, vehicles listed in the directory can enjoy the vehicle purchase tax exemption as per the regulations [5] - Tax authorities will process tax reduction procedures based on the directory and necessary documentation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration have jointly announced adjustments to the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027, specifically for pure electric passenger cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Requirements for Pure Electric Vehicles - The energy consumption per 100 kilometers for pure electric passenger cars should not exceed the limits specified in the "Energy Consumption Limits for Electric Vehicles Part 1: Passenger Cars" [2]. Group 2: Technical Requirements for Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles - For plug-in hybrid vehicles (including range-extended hybrids), the adjustments include: - The pure electric range must meet a conditional equivalent all-electric range of no less than 100 kilometers [2]. - The fuel consumption in electric mode testing must be less than 70% of the fuel consumption limit for corresponding models with a curb weight below 2510 kg, and less than 75% for those above 2510 kg [2]. - The energy consumption in electric mode testing must be less than 140% of the energy consumption limit for corresponding models with a curb weight below 2510 kg, and less than 145% for those above 2510 kg [2]. Group 3: Implementation Timeline - Starting from January 1, 2026, models included in the "Directory of New Energy Vehicle Models Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemption" must comply with the requirements outlined in this announcement [2]. - From January 1, 2026, and thereafter, newly published directories for tax exemption will allow the purchase of listed new energy vehicles to enjoy the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy as per regulations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive stocks have collectively declined, with significant drops observed in companies like Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and Great Wall Motors, amidst new government policies regarding tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) fell by 4.51%, trading at HKD 86.75 [1] - Li Auto-W (02015) decreased by 2.91%, trading at HKD 91.85 [1] - Brilliance China (01114) dropped by 3.12%, trading at HKD 4.04 [1] - Great Wall Motors (02333) saw a slight decline of 0.42%, trading at HKD 16.65 [1] Group 2: Government Policy Impact - On October 9, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, and State Taxation Administration jointly announced new technical standards for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles for 2026-2027 [1] - The new policy specifies updated technical requirements for pure electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles, particularly highlighting that plug-in hybrid vehicles must have an electric range of no less than 100 kilometers [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to a recent report by Shenwan Hongyuan, the fourth batch of "trade-in" funds has been allocated, indicating that automotive subsidies are nearing their end [1] - Starting next year, the exemption policy for new energy vehicles will be replaced by a 50% tax reduction, resulting in an additional tax cost of up to 15,000 yuan per vehicle for consumers purchasing models priced over 300,000 yuan, which may lead to a surge in market demand in the fourth quarter as consumers rush to purchase before the policy change [1]