Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main reasons are that the piglet data indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter volume by September, leading to abundant supply and downward pressure on prices. Also, as pig prices fall, the optimal slaughter weight decreases, forcing farmers to reduce pig weights, which further weighs on prices. Meanwhile, the LH2509 contract is currently at a relatively reasonable price level and is recommended to be observed for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: The market believes that farmers are likely to reduce pig weights in June and July, which is negative for the current situation but positive for the future. Therefore, the main contract (LH2509) has been adjusted with a slight upward trend. As of May 30, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 945 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: Driven by the expectation of pig weight reduction, the prices of far - month contracts are fluctuating with a slight upward trend [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Under the drive of the expectation of pig weight reduction, there is a reverse spread trend for the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, affected by the adjustment of the slaughter rhythm and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the slaughter volume first decreased and then increased, and the pig price mainly fluctuated and adjusted [14]. - **Regional Spread**: Henan remains a high - price area [16]. - **Fat - Standard Spread**: The fat - standard spread is oscillating and adjusting [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Spread**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spread**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continues to decline, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of April was 40.38 million, unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% year - on - year. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel also show an increase in the inventory of reproductive sows in their sample areas [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows has been running weakly this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month (previous value +0.94%), indicating a continuous increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets continued to fall, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running weakly and steadily [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, up 0.5% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year. The market for frozen products has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，29 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳， 最高 13690 元/吨，最低 13380 元 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡下跌，尾盘收阴，最高 14015 元/吨，最低 13735 元/吨， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【生猪日报】出栏方面稳定 价格窄幅震荡 | 生猪价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.11 | 15.11 | 0.00 | 山 西 | 14.84 | 14.84 | 0 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.65 | -0.04 | 辽 宁 | 14.61 | 14.61 | 0 | | 安徽（300） | 15.19 | 15.23 | -0.04 | 吉 林 | 14.54 | 14.54 | 0 | | 湖南（100） | 14.35 | 14.35 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | | （-200） | 四川 14.57 | 14.57 | 0.00 | 福 建 | 14.92 | 14.92 | 0 | ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 07 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 据涌益跟踪及调研数据，4 月 30 日当周周度屠宰样本 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 04 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025, but short - term sharp declines are also unlikely as there may be secondary fattening when prices approach 14 yuan/kg. The 2505 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis - In the context of weakening spot prices and a pessimistic market outlook for April pig prices, the price of the LH2505 contract fluctuated downward this week [2]. - On March 28, 2025, the benchmark ground (Henan) had a base price of 14.53 yuan/kg, and the main contract basis was 1305 yuan/ton [3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - Far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [5]. 3.1.3 Inter - monthly Spread Changes - Affected by the weakening of spot prices, the reverse spread trend of the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 contracts was obvious in the latter part of the week [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Prices and Slaughter Volumes - This week, the slaughter volume began to decline, and pig prices fell in the latter part of the week [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - The spreads among selected regions were within a relatively reasonable range [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spreads - The fat - standard price spread continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Spreads - Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spreads - Beef prices have risen recently, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - fattening remained profitable, while purchased piglet fattening was slightly profitable [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weights - The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. 3.3 Capacity End 3.3.1 Reproductive Sow Inventory - In January, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In February, the reproductive sow inventory in relevant samples continued to increase [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows remained stable this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly month - on - month in February [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Newborn Healthy Piglet Numbers - In February, the number of newborn healthy piglets was basically stable month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in July and stable numbers in August [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to rise this week due to increased enthusiasm among farmers for replenishment as the weather warmed up. The price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In January, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 38.16 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Some slaughterhouses carried out segmentation and warehousing operations, which supported pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [39].

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-03-25 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 3、主力合约（LH2505）今日减仓4565手，持仓量约7.24万手，最高价13500元/ 吨，最低价13365元/吨，收盘于13475元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，仔猪数据看2025年上 半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属消费淡季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差继续回落； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①2025年上半年生猪出栏量仍有增加空间，出栏压力 仍存；②现在养殖端仍在增重，实则利空后市猪价。多头：①近期猪价表现较 坚挺；②盘面贴水大，做多有性价比。 【策略建议】 作者： 史香迎 生猪研究员 1、观点：短期猪价或低位震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从仔猪数据看，2025年上半年生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），猪价暂无大涨基础； 2）现下猪肉消费进入淡季，需求对猪价的支撑弱； 3）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且现货 近期表现较为坚挺，建议暂时观望。 期货从业资 ...