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南华期货生猪产业周报:远月的梦想,近月的重拳-20251207
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-07 12:32
*近端交易逻辑 1.生猪存栏较高,猪企出栏压力较大 南华期货生猪产业周报 ——远月的梦想近月的重拳 戴鸿绪 投资咨询资格证号:Z0021819 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 本周生猪期价震荡磨底,当前猪价整体估值偏低,本周持仓量大幅下降,预计博弈逐步降低。近月博弈依旧 关注二育,今年过年时节较晚,二育尚存短补窗口。 1.1 核心矛盾 政策端扰动频出,生猪远月供给或受到影响。长周期战略性可以看多,但中短期依旧以基本面为主。部分省 市开启收储政策,虽然收储量有限,但体现了当下上层对物价调控的决心,可以说政策底已经显现,但市场 底可能还需要一轮生产周期去磨底。 能繁母猪存栏数(双口径) source: 南华研究,wind 万头 能繁殖母猪存栏数(钢联)(右轴) 能繁母猪存栏(农业农村部) 万头 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 475 500 525 550 575 3800 4000 4200 4400 猪粮比. source: 南华研究,同花顺 - 猪粮比:中国(周) 22/12 23/06 23/12 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:56
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 04, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see state, so the price is mainly volatile. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the relatively concentrated secondary fattening and pressure on pigs in October, combined with continuous capacity release, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting continued pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is mainly weak and volatile, but since the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, the frequency of bottom - range volatility may increase [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 3rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down in the end. The highest was 11,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,235 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,152 lots to 371,564 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 3rd, the average price of ternary live pigs in the country was 11.28 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on pigs were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the slaughter at the beginning of the month has slowed down [9] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pens is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan, and the fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have also improved. The terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 176,700 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 2,800 heads compared with the previous week, and 17,800 heads compared with the previous month [9] 4.2 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head [19] - **Cost**: As of the week ending November 21, the cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [19] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg compared with the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [19]
生猪数据日报-20251202
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 03:27
资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心 gg 9 杨璐琳 | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/12/02 | | | 地区 | 2025/12/01 | 涨跌值\ | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11.55 | 0.23 | 0 - 国 | 55 | 200 | | | 湖南 | 11. 43 | 0.5 | 100 | -165 | 470 | | | 湖北 | 41.3 | 0.24 012 | 0 | -195 | P 210 | | | 安徽 | 11.63 | 0. 22 | 200 | -65 | 190 | | | 江西 | 11. 34 | 0.5 | 2100 | -255 | 470 | | | 山西 | 11.14 | 0. 07 | -100 | -255 | 40 | | | 山东 | 11.61 | 0. 18 | 200 ...
生猪周报(LH):供应压力延续,矛盾持续积累-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 09:10
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报(LH)】 供应压力延续,矛盾持续积累 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 谢威 从业资格证号:F03087820 投资咨询证号:Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 生猪:供应压力延续,矛盾持续积累 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 能繁母猪存栏仍高,生猪出栏量维持高位,出栏体重偏大,压栏与集团出栏博弈加剧。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 终端消费未明显放量,冻品库存上升,表观需求一般。 | | | 库存 | 偏多 | 屠企和冻品库容率均处于同期低位。 | | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | 继续保持contango结构,这个结构背景下,现货若仍无起色,传导至盘面或维持弱势。 | | | 利润 | 中性 | 自繁自养养殖利润连续亏损,价格已跌破盈亏线,养殖户无惜售动力,反而可能加速出栏。 | | | 估值 | 中性 | 目前期货 ...
供应整体稳定,价格小幅震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 14:38
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and dated November 18, 2025, focusing on the hog market [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall hog supply is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. The subsequent supply pressure in the hog market may still be significant, and the general trend of spot hog prices is expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure in the medium to long - term [1][3][4] Group 4: Spot Price Summary - Today, hog spot prices across the country showed a slight rebound. The average price remained unchanged at 11.29 yuan/kg. Some regions had price increases, such as Hebei with an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg, while Guizhou had a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg [3] - The scale enterprises' hog出栏量 increased overall. Although the monthly hog出栏 plan decreased, the overall supply pressure still exists. Ordinary farmers'出栏 enthusiasm decreased, and the overall出栏 pressure improved compared to before [3] - The number of secondary fattening entrants decreased recently. The price difference between large and small hogs decreased, and hog prices declined, reducing the enthusiasm for replenishment [3] - The current hog出栏 weight rebounded, and the supply of large - weight hogs is still relatively large. The slowdown in出栏 rhythm supported hog prices to some extent. Due to the high hog inventory and relatively large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure in the hog market may still be reflected, and the general trend of hog spot prices is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: Futures Price Summary - Hog futures prices showed a downward trend, affected by the large subsequent supply pressure. However, due to the full reflection of negative factors in the previous decline of the futures market, the recent futures market reaction to the decline in spot prices was not obvious [4] - In the short - term, the change in monthly hog出栏量 may be limited, and prices will generally fluctuate. In the medium - term, due to the high overall inventory and obvious supply pressure, the general trend of spot prices will be downward. Therefore, both spot and futures prices may fluctuate recently, but in the medium to long - term, hog prices are under obvious downward pressure, and the futures market also has certain pressure [4] Group 6: Other Price and Data Summary - Piglet and sow prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week, at 209 yuan and 1546 yuan respectively [3] - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 25.60 yuan to - 114.81 yuan/head, and for purchasing piglets, it decreased by 30.09 yuan to - 205.64 yuan/head [3] - The slaughter volume decreased by 228 heads to 165,897 heads. The price difference between standard hogs and medium - sized hogs increased by 0.02 yuan, while the price difference between large hogs and standard hogs decreased by 0.05 yuan [3] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Options: Implement a strategy of selling wide straddles [5]
生猪鸡蛋周报:生猪供给持续充足,鸡蛋需求有所走弱-20251114
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 12:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both the hog and egg markets are in a downward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to decline in the future [2][3]. - For hogs, due to high levels of breeding sows, increased production performance, and high supply pressure in the second half of 2025, along with limited demand boost from economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences, the rebound space for hog prices is limited. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and weak demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For eggs, with the inventory of laying hens at a high level year - on - year, continuous supply pressure, and limited demand fluctuations affected by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the egg price is expected to remain low. The 01 contract is in the demand peak season, but high supply may lead to insufficient demand acceptance. The overall advice is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section - **Supply**: - Pork supply depends on the number of hog slaughter and slaughter weight. Since the import accounts for less than 5%, domestic production is the main source. The number of hog slaughter is determined by production capacity, and weight shows seasonal changes within the year. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [9][10]. - The overall slaughter weight is rising as the weather gets colder, and the entry of second - fattening hogs decreases. It is expected to continue rising as the weather further cools and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, pork consumption is related to income, population, and consumption habits; in the medium - term, it has obvious seasonality; in the short - term, it changes with festivals and price fluctuations. Currently, as the weather gets colder, the downstream demand is in the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. Second - fattening and frozen - product storage form short - term demand, but recently, the second - fattening entry is cautious, and the willingness to slaughter en masse is low [23]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model's cost is 12.41 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding industry is in a loss, and the production capacity reduction is slow. Breeders are pessimistic about the future, mainly replacing sows, and increasing the elimination of high - parity sows [36][37]. - **Policy**: - The state uses reserve purchases and sales to regulate market supply and demand and stabilize the hog market. Currently, the market is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, and the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [44]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - A series of data on hog spreads and basis are provided, including the basis of different contracts in Henan and various inter - contract spreads, with daily - updated data [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply**: - Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since the beginning of 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the new production in the fourth quarter will decline. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. Although the inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter, it will still be at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the culling situation [73]. - Recently, replenishment has been weak, the culling sentiment has declined, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is still abundant. The feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost is around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74][75]. - **Demand**: - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the medium - and short - term, it has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand boost is not obvious, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Spreads and Basis**: - Data on egg spreads and basis are provided, including inter - contract spreads and the basis of different contracts in Hebei, with daily - updated data [100].
【生猪鸡蛋周报】生猪供给持续充足,鸡蛋需求有所走弱-20251114
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 11:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The hog market is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to decrease in the later stage. The supply of hogs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up in the second half of 2025, the boost may be limited due to slow economic development and changing consumer preferences. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand may lead to weak short - term hog prices. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The egg market is also in an oscillatory decline, and the price center is expected to remain low. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure persists. The demand has seasonal changes, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to outpace the demand, so the overall market is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section 3.1.1 Supply - **Capacity and long - term supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [10]. - **Weight and short - term supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of hogs has increased, and the slaughter rhythm is normal. The overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise as the weather gets colder and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. 3.1.2 Demand - With the colder weather, the downstream demand has entered the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, the secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness to concentrate on slaughter is not high [23]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the mode of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the capacity reduction is slow [36]. 3.1.4 Policy - The state will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices. There have been multiple rounds of central reserve frozen pork rotation and purchase and storage transactions in the past [44][45]. 3.1.5 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various hog spreads and bases, such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 contract bases in Henan, and the 1 - 3, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1, 1 - 5 spreads [52][67][69]. 3.2 Egg Section 3.2.1 Supply - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter is expected to decrease. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter but will still remain high year - on - year, resulting in sufficient egg supply [73]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, it is the off - season, and although the demand has increased year - on - year, the seasonal demand change is still significant. The end of e - commerce promotions has failed to boost the demand significantly, but the high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. 3.2.3 Cost - The recent feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. 3.2.4 Spread and Basis - The report provides data on various egg spreads and bases, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 contract bases in Hebei [100].
建信期货生猪日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:28
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On the 12th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 11,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,720 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,615 lots to 359,930 lots [6]. Spot Market - On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.75 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Market Analysis - Supply side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared with the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average was flat. Currently, farmers are slaughtering at a normal pace [7]. - Demand side: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather continues to cool, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. Mid - to - late November may see a slight increase in bacon curing and sausage making. On November 12th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,100 heads, an increase of 17,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 5,000 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, supply is stable and demand increases slightly, but with second - fattening in a wait - and - see state, the support for prices is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October, along with farmers' reluctance to sell and the continuous release of production capacity, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the previous year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening 110 - kg pigs to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening 125 - kg pigs to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].
生猪、玉米周报-20251110
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The live hog price is oscillating, and the corn futures market is oscillating and rebounding. The short - term live hog price may stabilize, and the corn market is in a supply - demand game stage with suggestions to participate in the short - term trading [3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures were in a low - level oscillation. The LH2601 contract closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, a 0.08% decline from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 11.98 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 4.18 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.53, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot price stopped rising and fell last week. The market supply increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. However, as the price dropped again, the slaughter acquisition sentiment improved, and the retail farmers' resistance to price cuts was strong. The short - term price may stabilize [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures were oscillating strongly. The C2601 contract closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, a 1.46% increase from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,238.53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. Different ports had different price changes [6] - Consumption: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3818 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 0.0286 million tons. The corn starch industry's开机率 increased, while the alcohol industry's开机率 decreased [7] - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.795 million tons, a decrease of 1.13%. As of November 7, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.02 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 0.87 million tons [7] - Market situation: The decline of the national corn spot price slowed down last week. The market is in the new grain listing stage, with the purchase scope of the State Reserve Grain Corporation expanding. The downstream low - inventory enterprises have restocking needs, but the power to continuously raise prices is limited. The short - term corn market is in a supply - demand game, and the futures market is oscillating and rebounding [8]
建信期货生猪日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:52
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and the second-round fattening and holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% month-on-month compared with the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining flat. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter was average, and the sentiment of reluctance to sell increased in some regions. On the demand side, after the current spot price rebounded to a high level, the second-round fattening is mainly on the sidelines. As the weather continues to cool, the terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. The pickling and sausage-making in the middle and late months may increase slightly. Overall, the spot market will be mainly volatile, while the futures market will be weak in the medium and long term and may rebound in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 6th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat, then fluctuated narrowly after hitting a low and rebounding, and closed down at the end of the session. The highest was 11,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,940 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 917 lots to 351,356 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 6th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.79 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was -34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig purchased as a piglet was -258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [12]. - **Utilization Rate**: As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the same period last year [12]. - **Price Difference**: As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [12]. - **Cost**: As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [12]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [12]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [12].