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猪企7月销售简报:销量环比下降,价格仍在低位
证券时报· 2025-08-07 11:54
Core Viewpoint - The sales reports for July from various listed pig farming companies indicate a general decline in sales volume compared to June, while prices remain at historically low levels [1][2][8]. Sales Performance Summary - Giant Star Agriculture reported sales of 324,100 pigs in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.67%, but a decrease in sales volume and revenue compared to June [4]. - Kemin Foods' subsidiary sold 41,900 pigs in July, with a month-on-month decline of 28.78% but a year-on-year increase of 73.88%. Revenue decreased by 38.92% month-on-month but increased by 6.08% year-on-year [4]. - New Hope sold 1,302,500 pigs in July, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 2.06% and a year-on-year increase of 3.21%. Revenue fell by 3.67% month-on-month and 24.62% year-on-year [5]. - Muyuan Foods reported sales of 6,355,000 pigs in July, a year-on-year increase of 13.02%, but a decrease in sales volume and revenue compared to June [6]. - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3,164,800 pigs in July, with a year-on-year increase in sales but a decrease in revenue compared to June [6]. Price Trends Summary - The overall market price for live pigs remains low, with the price on August 7, 2025, at 14.34 yuan/kg, slightly up from 14.22 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025, but down from 15.98 yuan/kg at the end of 2024 [9]. - The wholesale price of pork on August 7, 2025, was 20.45 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease from 20.50 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 [9]. - The domestic pig futures market has seen some strengthening, with the main contract price reaching 14,100 yuan/ton as of August 7, 2025, compared to less than 13,000 yuan/ton in late May [9].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250801
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Dynamics - On July 31, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 7,850 lots today, with a position of approximately 45,200 lots. The highest price was 14,180 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be in a state of volatile adjustment. - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price [4]. Market Overview - On July 31, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15% from the previous day. The average price in Henan was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg or 1.65%. - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts decreased, except for the 09 contract which remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan increased by 230 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 242.11% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report provides historical data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip pork average prices, corn purchase prices, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as data on the basis of the main pig futures contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts [6][14].
建信期货生猪日报-20250801
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of live pigs increases and demand is weak, putting pressure on pig prices. In the long - term, policies such as the anti - involution initiative and high - quality development of the pig industry are expected to benefit pig prices, and the impact of policies on production capacity needs to be monitored [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market**: On July 31, the main 2509 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards, closing down 0.32% at 14,075 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,308 lots to 175,934 lots [8] - **Spot market**: On July 31, the average price of ternary pigs in China was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the increase in enterprise sales at the end of the month, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased slightly. On July 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, down 500 from the previous day and up 2,400 from a week ago [9] - **Supply side**: In July, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. At the end of the month, the sales progress of farmers accelerated, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreased slightly. The utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is high, and there are still pigs for secondary fattening to be sold in the future [9] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [10][12] 3.3 Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [20] - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads [20] - As of the week of July 24, the average weight of live pigs for sale was 128.48 kg, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease and a 2.46% year - on - year increase [20]
建信期货生猪日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to increased group sales at the end of July and weak demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to remain under pressure. In the long - term, although pig supply shows a slight increase, favorable policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection in some regions will have a positive impact on pig prices, and the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity needs attention [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 30th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 33 lots to 186,242 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 30th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,400 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 3,900 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening was high, with more pigs for secondary fattening still to be slaughtered [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24th was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 24th, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [18].
建信期货生猪日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:31
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 28, the main contract 2509 of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down. The highest was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 294 lots to 193,333 lots [9]. - Spot: On July 28, the average price of foreign ternary pigs nationwide was 14.03 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level, and currently, secondary fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 28, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day and 2,200 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties was relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Market Outlook - In general, in late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale enterprises increased. In order to achieve the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises continued to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the near-month futures contracts are following the decline of the spot market. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly, but the anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium- and long-term performance of pig prices. The far-month contract 2601 is strongly supported by factors such as the expected weight reduction and the supply increase being less than the demand increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 162 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -63 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 63 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [20]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [20]. - As of the week of July 24, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.46% [20].
【生猪周报(LH)】生猪出栏缩量,现货震荡偏弱-20250728
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 05:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the pig industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig market shows a situation where pig slaughter volume is shrinking, and the spot price is fluctuating weakly. The supply is affected by factors such as piglet diarrhea in January - February, which impacts the pig slaughter supply from June - July. Meanwhile, demand has shown some recovery, and the inventory of slaughterhouses and frozen products is at a low level compared to the same period. The futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and there are multiple stimulus policies that are expected to boost future pork demand. The market is likely to oscillate at the bottom [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Piglet diarrhea in January - February affected the pig slaughter supply from June - July. After the initial slaughter in mid - June, group farms' willingness to reduce weight decreased, and the spot price stabilized, stimulating secondary fattening散户 to continue holding pigs [3] - **Demand**: Bearish. The slaughter volume from March - April increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating a certain degree of demand recovery [3] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the near - month basis of pigs converged, and the spread between September and January oscillated strongly [3] - **Profit**: Neutral. The breeding profit is stable but slightly weak, yet still positive [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and the downside space is relatively limited [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand in all aspects and a moderately loose monetary policy, which helps boost future pork demand [3] - **Investment View**: Neutral. The demand for secondary fattening is cautious, the supply side is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to the demand for secondary fattening and feed prices [3] 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are charts showing the prices of standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and front - three - grade white - striped pork in Henan, as well as their price trends from 2021 - 2025 [5] - **Capacity Scale**: Charts display the inventory of sample sows, including the quantity, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes, as well as the inventory data of sows from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of new healthy piglets and commercial pig slaughter in five - province samples, along with survival rates [10][22] - **Commercial Pig Inventory Structure**: Charts show the inventory proportions of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg), as well as the standard - fat price difference, north - south price difference, average slaughter weight, and average post - slaughter weight [27] - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Situation**: Charts present the monthly slaughter volumes of companies such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [40] - **Slaughter Situation**: Charts show daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse operating rate, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as the wholesale volume of white - striped pork in markets like Xinfadi, the arrival volume of white - striped pork in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [45][53] - **Profit and Cost**: Charts display self - breeding and self - raising profits, profits from purchasing piglets, the pig - grain ratio, and the feed price of fattening pigs [54] 3.3 Pig Capital - Side Data - There are charts showing the basis of different contracts (03, 05, 07, 09) and the price differences between different contracts (03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, 05 - 09) from 2022 - 2025 [59][68]
建信期货生猪日报-20250723
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:36
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long term, pig supply will increase slightly, but the anti - involution initiative and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices, especially for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, recovered, and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 912 lots to 167,061 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, the utilization rate of pigsties reached a high level, and secondary fattening was mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 22, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, a decrease of 15,000 heads from the previous day and the same as a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. Currently, the slaughter progress of farmers has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first half of the month, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high, with more secondary - fattened pigs yet to be slaughtered [9]. 2. Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 126 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 17 was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [21]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [21].
建信期货生猪日报-20250718
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:42
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Currently, the group's pig出栏量 has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. From mid - to late July, large - scale pig - farming enterprises may increase their supply to meet monthly targets. With demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to face further pressure. In the medium - to long - term, pig supply will increase, but anti - cut - throat competition initiatives and strengthened environmental protection policies are favorable for long - term pig prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive candle. The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,060 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,275 lots to 160,859 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and farmers reduced the number of pigs for sale. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 131,600 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig出栏量 of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. The出栏量 may be slightly adjusted down. In the early part of the month, enterprises temporarily held back pigs and reduced the number of pigs for sale, but now the出栏 progress has recovered. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [8]. 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [19].
生猪日报:出栏压力逐步增加,价格有所回落-20250716
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 13:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]
建信期货生猪日报-20250715
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:31
Report Information - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of pigs are both decreasing in the short - term. The reduced supply has boosted the rebound of futures and spot prices, but currently, the group's sales volume has recovered, leading to a slight price correction. In the medium and long - term, pig supply will continue to increase, and with the consumption off - season, pig prices may face pressure. Although the futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot, the spot market's supply reduction to maintain prices has driven the price rebound, and domestic anti - involution initiatives and strengthened environmental protection efforts support market sentiment [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing down. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,185 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,285 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,499 lots to 162,291 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 14th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 14, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 132,500 heads, a decrease of 2,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 1,700 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig sales volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. In the early part of the month, enterprises reduced supply and the average weight of pigs increased. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous week [20] - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [20] - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [20] - As of the week ending July 11, the average weight of nationwide pig sales was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [20]