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东吴证券:煤炭供需弱均衡导致煤价震荡运行 高股息投资逻辑持续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 02:41
该行指,进口端印尼煤炭生产存在巨大弹性:印尼煤矿生产也均为露天煤矿,由于其热值较低,当市场 低迷的时候,低热值煤炭会被市场优先淘汰摒弃,因此成为中国煤炭供给的重要补充部分,2025年中国 预计煤炭进口量下降0.5-0.6亿吨,而印尼总出口量大约下降同等规模。 东吴证券发布研报称,受益于煤价在2025年二季度见底,煤炭上市公司业绩从三季度开始触底,预计未 来煤价相对稳定造就龙头公司持续盈利稳定。预期2026年上半年煤价震荡运行,且关注"能源安全"主题 投资机会,因此该行建议关注受益于"疆煤外运"逻辑产量有增长,且动力煤价格上涨带来业绩弹性的广 汇能源(600256)(600256.SH);其次建议关注昊华能源(601101)(600378.SH),以及兖矿能源 (600188)(600188.SH)和陕西煤业(601225)(601225.SH)。 报告中称,2023年中以来,随着经济增速放缓,煤炭供需进入弱均衡状态,正常状态煤价在670-870元/ 吨之间区间震荡,煤价合理常态预期770元/吨左右水平。国内新疆煤炭成为供给补充弹性地区:新疆地 区的大规模露天煤矿产能,成为重要弹性供给部分。新疆准东地区由于运距 ...
手握核电粮仓牌照!中国铀业IPO终落地,核电粮不用看别人脸色!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 14:10
前言 现在咱国家搞"双碳"、推核电,最缺不得的就是"核粮食"——天然铀! 而最近有个重磅消息,直接关乎咱能源安全的"命门"。 懂行的都知道,原地浸出是现在最先进的采铀技术,这项目一投产,每年能多产1200吨天然铀。 国内唯一能搞天然铀采冶的"国家队"中国铀业,不仅IPO终于敲定,旗下大项目还提前试产了。 这波操作直接给咱核电发展上了"双保险"! IPO落地+项目试产 咱们先唠最实在的——中国铀业这波上市操作,可不是走个过场。 早在2024年11月13日,它就亮了招股书,计划在深交所主板发不超过2.48亿股,发行后总股本能超20.68 亿股,当时就说了募资全投主业。 等到2025年5月,这事儿终于有了实锤:证监会正式核准了它的IPO申请,还定了发行价,算下来募资 总额超50亿! 钱花在哪儿?全是硬骨头项目——内蒙古纳岭沟铀矿、巴彦乌拉铀矿二期这些,每一个都关乎产能。 更让人惊喜的是,2025年8月,纳岭沟那个原地浸出采铀工程已经进了试生产阶段! 说句实在话,以前咱国内天然铀不少靠进口,现在自家产能往上冲,以后核电"吃饭"再也不用看别人脸 色了。 全球布局+技术领跑 从另一个角度看,中国铀业能扛起"核电粮仓"的担 ...
俄军无人机狂轰能源命脉,乌克兰紧急切换备用电源
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 10:08
汇通财经APP讯——周日(11月17日)凌晨,乌克兰南部港口城市敖德萨再度成为俄罗斯军队的重点打 击对象。俄军发动了一轮猛烈的夜间袭击,专门针对能源基础设施展开精准轰炸,导致当地重要生命支 持设施和关键基础设施被迫紧急切换到备用电源。乌克兰官员在周日早间迅速通报了这一事件,强调尽 管防空系统全力拦截,但袭击仍造成严重破坏,整个城市部分区域陷入停电困境,居民的生活瞬间被笼 罩在寒冬前的紧张氛围中。 地区军管局长详述袭击细节:无人机损毁太阳能电站,火灾迅即扑灭无人员伤亡 敖德萨地区军事管理局局长奥列赫·基珀通过Telegram平台发布了详细报告,他指出敌人持续故意瞄准 敖德萨地区南部的民用基础设施。尽管乌克兰防空部队展开积极抵抗,但俄军发射的攻击无人机还是成 功突破防线,再次重创了多个能源设施,其中包括一座太阳能发电厂。 袭击引发了多处火灾,不过国家紧急服务部门反应迅速,火势在短时间内就被完全扑灭。更令人松一口 气的是,这次袭击没有造成任何人员伤亡。基珀还提到,在受影响的区域已经紧急部署了"韧性点",这 些临时支援站为居民提供基本电力和热源,确保关键设施如医院和供水系统能够通过备用电源维持运 转,避免了更大规模的 ...
11月17日上期所沪银期货仓单较上一日下跌7539千克
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-17 08:29
周日(11月17日)凌晨,乌克兰南部港口城市敖德萨再度成为俄罗斯军队的重点打击对象。俄军发动了 一轮猛烈的夜间袭击,专门针对能源基础设施展开精准轰炸,导致当地重要生命支持设施和关键基础设 施被迫紧急切换到备用电源。 乌克兰官员在周日早间迅速通报了这一事件,强调尽管防空系统全力拦截,但袭击仍造成严重破坏,整 个城市部分区域陷入停电困境,居民的生活瞬间被笼罩在寒冬前的紧张氛围中。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货11月17日仓单日报显示,白银期货总计569355千克,今日仓单较上一 日下跌7539千克。 沪银主力短线维持震荡格局,今日白银期货开盘报12220元/千克,最高触及12251元/千克,最低触及 11854元/千克,截止收盘报11933元/千克,下跌4.08%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 93868 | 0 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 100012 | -5216 | | | 中工美供应链 | 285776 | 599 | | | 合计 | 479656 | -4617 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 896 ...
全球油价扛不住了!俄罗斯遭到惨痛打击,乌军导弹掐断俄能源命脉
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 06:06
深夜时分,黑海的海岸突然被撕裂,橙红色的火球冲天而起,蘑菇状的烟柱在漆黑的夜空中显得格外醒目。这场发生在11月中旬的爆炸事件并非一起意外, 而是乌克兰军队精准打击俄罗斯新罗西斯克石油枢纽的结果,成为了战场上一幕震撼的画面。 随着火光逐渐消退,全球迎来了一个更加棘手的问题——每天200万桶的石油供应突然"消失",国际油价随之迅速反应。 尽管很多人对新罗西斯克这个名字可能不太熟悉,但在全球能源格局中,它是俄罗斯通往黑海的"能源咽喉"。作为由俄罗斯石油运输公司控制的核心枢纽, 这里不仅是俄罗斯石油出口的重要节点,还连接着里海管道系统,是哈萨克斯坦原油转口出口的关键所在。 换句话说,这个港口每天的石油出口量,占据了全球石油供应总量的2%。看似微不足道的2%,在全球能源市场中却如同一根精密的天平,任何波动都可能 引发一系列连锁反应。 此次袭击的方式彰显了乌克兰军队战术的升级。攻击的主力是乌克兰自主研发的"海王星"巡航导弹。这些导弹并非仅仅依靠一两枚单打独斗,而是通过多枚 导弹的协同攻击,突破了俄军防空系统,成功撕开了俄罗斯的防线。 目击者称,爆炸声此起彼伏,响声像鞭炮一样不断,石油储罐被击中后,流淌的原油加剧了火势,火 ...
全球油价躺平,中国却大量囤油,是不是有大事发生呢?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 15:52
Core Insights - China is significantly increasing its oil reserves, accounting for 90% of the global increase in oil inventory in the first half of the year, which has helped stabilize falling oil prices [1][3][5] - The strategy behind China's oil accumulation is rooted in a long-standing philosophy of preparedness and national security, rather than impulsive buying [1][7][27] Oil Import and Storage - By September 2025, China is projected to import over 11 million barrels of oil daily, with a substantial portion being stored rather than refined [3][5] - China's oil storage capacity has surpassed 2 billion barrels, with plans to build additional storage facilities, indicating a robust infrastructure for oil reserves [5][10] Market Strategy - China's oil purchasing strategy is calculated, taking advantage of lower prices during geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to secure cheaper oil supplies [7][9] - The country has diversified its oil import sources, significantly increasing imports from Indonesia and Brazil, while also developing pipeline projects with Russia and Myanmar to mitigate supply risks [10][12] Financial and Economic Considerations - China is adjusting its foreign exchange reserves, reducing the proportion of USD and increasing gold holdings, while investing in oil as a more stable asset [12][27] - The transition to renewable energy is ongoing, with projections indicating that by 2025, electric vehicles will comprise 40% of the market, yet oil remains essential for industrial operations [25][27] National Security and Preparedness - China's oil reserves are part of a broader strategy to ensure national security, including food security and military readiness, reflecting a comprehensive approach to risk management [14][16][19] - The country is enhancing its military capabilities to protect its energy supply lines, ensuring that resources are secured against potential geopolitical disruptions [16][19] Conclusion - The accumulation of oil reserves is not merely an economic strategy but a reflection of China's commitment to maintaining stability and security for its population, positioning itself as a responsible global player in energy governance [27]
高盛:人工智能时代的欧洲能源安全:脆弱性与投资机遇
Goldman Sachs· 2025-11-16 15:36
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy sector, particularly focusing on renewable energy and gas power plants, while highlighting the vulnerabilities in Europe's energy supply chain [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is accelerating, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 2.6% in the U.S. by the end of this decade, driven by air conditioning, data centers, industry, and electric vehicles [1][2]. - Europe relies heavily on imports for its energy needs, with nearly 50% of its energy structure dependent on imports, particularly LNG from the U.S. and Qatar, and rare earth resources from China [1][4]. - The nuclear energy sector, while significant in the EU's energy mix at about 10%, faces supply chain risks due to the concentration of uranium supply and processing [5]. - The aging electricity grid in Europe poses a major bottleneck for meeting new electricity demands, necessitating modernization and increased green investments [6][8]. - The development of AI data centers is significantly driving energy demand, with challenges in grid expansion and a growing interest in storage solutions like fuel cells [9][10]. Summary by Sections Energy Demand and Supply - Global electricity demand grew by 4.3% last year, outpacing GDP growth, with data centers' electricity demand rising to about 2% in the EU and 6% in the U.S. [2]. - The importance of electricity supply security has increased due to the high energy consumption of AI technologies and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [3][14]. Renewable Energy and Investment Opportunities - RWE, a German utility company, is highlighted for its strong earnings potential, with 70% of its business in renewable energy and a projected annual earnings growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2030 [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant capital investment in electrification, estimating a requirement of nearly $3 trillion to modernize infrastructure and support renewable energy [8]. Challenges in Energy Supply - Europe's dependency on LNG imports could rise to 70-80% if Russian LNG is banned, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security [4]. - The concentration of rare earth resources in China poses additional risks, with Europe seeking to reduce this dependency through legislative measures [4]. Nuclear Energy and Supply Chain Risks - The nuclear fuel cycle's high concentration in supply sources raises concerns about potential disruptions, particularly with significant reliance on imports from Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia [5]. Infrastructure and Modernization Needs - The aging electrical grid requires modernization to accommodate new demands from electric vehicles and data centers, with a projected need for a 70% increase in green investments over the next five years [6][8]. Emerging Technologies and Companies - Companies like Prysmian are positioned to benefit from the growth in data centers, providing essential low-voltage cables for the sector [18]. - Sirius XM is noted for its solid oxide fuel cell technology, which has potential in the green hydrogen market, highlighting investment opportunities in emerging technologies [20][21].
欧盟内部爆发巨大矛盾!匈牙利公开站台俄罗斯,俄能源迎来助力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 09:08
前言: 11月14日这天,匈牙利总理欧尔班的每周广播节目成了欧洲舆论的焦点。他在节目里拍板钉钉,要把欧 盟告到欧洲法院,就因为对方刚通过的禁止进口俄罗斯天然气的决定。 这事儿乍看是中东欧小国跟欧盟叫板,往深了挖全是能源安全、地缘博弈和欧盟内部团结的盘根错节, 每个细节都透着各方的无奈与算计。 很多人好奇,匈牙利凭什么敢跟欧盟唱反调?答案就攥在能源管道里。国际货币基金组织2024年的最新 数据说得很明白,这个国家74%的天然气和86%的石油都要从俄罗斯进口。这种依赖不是临时抱佛脚, 是几十年产业布局攒下的"惯性",全国的经济民生都绑在这条能源线上。 工厂的生产线一断气就得停转,化工企业的原料加工全靠稳定供气撑着,这些都是实打实的经济命脉。 到了冬天更不用说,中东欧的严寒能持续小半年,天然气是千家万户暖气的核心来源。 真要是按欧盟说的停了俄能源,匈牙利面临的不只是GDP下滑,很可能是老百姓家里断暖、企业倒闭 的民生动荡。 这次欧盟投票时,斯洛伐克跟匈牙利站在一起投了反对票,根源也是一样的能源难题。这些中东欧国家 地理上挨着俄罗斯,早早就修好了配套的运输管道和储存设施,"友谊"输油管道和"土耳其溪"天然气管 道更是 ...
加纳将建设一座1200兆瓦的国有火力发电厂
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-16 03:10
(原标题:加纳将建设一座1200兆瓦的国有火力发电厂) 财政部长福森博士在议会提交2026年预算案时表示,这座新的发电厂有望提高加纳的能源安全、可 靠性和可及性,从而支持居民和工业的发展。 据"欢乐在线"11月13日报道,政府已宣布计划建设一座1200兆瓦的国有火力发电厂,预计将于2026 年开始建设。该项目旨在利用合作伙伴和第二天然气加工厂每天额外提供的1.5亿标准立方英尺天然 气,进一步增强该国的能源能力。 ...
欧洲能源在安全与自主间“徘徊”
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-11-14 21:38
Core Insights - The sixth Transatlantic Energy Cooperation Partners Conference was held in Athens, Greece, focusing on energy security, affordability, and reliability in Europe, with significant participation from U.S. officials and international oil and gas executives [2][3] - The U.S. aims to replace Russian natural gas in Western Europe, with a commitment to supply LNG and other energy products worth $750 billion over three years, significantly increasing Europe's dependency on U.S. energy [3][5] - Europe is experiencing a shift in energy supply dynamics, with the U.S. becoming the largest LNG and oil supplier, accounting for approximately 55% of EU imports, while the EU aims to reduce its natural gas consumption by 7% by 2030 [3][4] Energy Supply Dynamics - The EU has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian energy, with imports from Russia dropping from 45% for gas and 27% for oil in 2022 to approximately 13% and 3% by 2025, respectively [2] - The EU's LNG imports have surged, with the U.S. replacing Russia as the primary supplier, raising concerns about the sustainability and cost-effectiveness of this shift [3][4] - A long-term LNG supply agreement was signed between Greece and the U.S., committing to import 700 million cubic meters of U.S. LNG annually starting in 2030 for 20 years, which has sparked debates about the environmental impact and the EU's green transition [5][6] Environmental and Geopolitical Concerns - The EU's increased dependency on U.S. LNG raises questions about the impact on its climate goals, as the extraction and transportation of shale gas have significant carbon footprints [5][6] - There are fears that the EU's commitment to purchasing U.S. energy could weaken its negotiating position and expose it to political leverage from the U.S., potentially compromising its climate policies [6] - The evolving energy relationship reflects broader tensions in U.S.-EU relations, with the EU needing to navigate its energy security while maintaining autonomy and addressing environmental concerns [6]