Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed. The latest economic data shows that the economic growth momentum continues to slow down, with fixed - asset investment, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment declining, and real - estate investment still having double - digit declines. Consumption repair is unstable, and deflation pressure persists. The economic fundamentals are still weak, and incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints such as investment, consumption, and debt resolution risks [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Improves Continuously, Tax Revenue Increases Slightly - General public budget revenue growth rate continues to rise, with local fiscal revenue being the main contributor and the drag from central fiscal revenue weakening. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue reached 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, exceeding the annual budget target by 0.1%. The central fiscal revenue has been improving, with the decline narrowing for 6 consecutive months, while local fiscal revenue has maintained positive growth. However, the revenue completion progress is slow [12]. - Tax revenue turns to a slight increase, and non - tax revenue continues to shrink. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turned positive to 0.02%, rising for 6 consecutive months. Securities trading stamp duty contributes significantly, while consumption tax, real - estate tax, and foreign - trade tax are still drags. The growth rate of non - tax revenue dropped to 1.5%, declining for 6 consecutive months [17]. 3.2 Fiscal Expenditure Growth Declines, Infrastructure Expenditure Growth Declines Significantly - Fiscal expenditure growth has declined across the board, with both central and local expenditures hitting new lows this year. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 3.1%, with the increase narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The expenditure rhythm is the lowest in the same period in the past five years. The growth rate of central expenditure is still relatively high but has declined by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while local expenditure growth has declined for 4 consecutive months, mainly affected by factors such as the decline in land transfer income [22]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood expenditure has slowed down from a high level, and infrastructure expenditure has shrunk significantly. The growth rate of social security and employment expenditure has slightly increased, while the growth rates of education and health - care expenditure have slightly decreased. The growth rate declines of infrastructure - related expenditures such as agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban - rural community affairs have expanded [26]. 3.3 Government - Fund Revenue and Expenditure Growth Slows, Special Bond Issuance Speeds Up but Remains Slow - Government - fund revenue and expenditure growth is weak. The revenue side is under continuous pressure, with the year - on - year growth rate of government - fund revenue from January to August being - 1.4%, and the decline expanding. The expenditure side growth rate has marginally declined. The revenue growth rate is significantly lower than the expenditure growth rate, and the "mismatch" between revenue and expenditure progress highlights the debt - resolution pressure [28]. - Local government special bond issuance has accelerated but remains slow. From January to August, the completion progress of new special bonds was about 74.2%, an increase of about 11 percentage points from the previous value, but still 15 percentage points lower than the average in the same period from 2022 - 2024. The slow issuance is mainly restricted by debt resolution and tightened access to projects [28]. 3.4 Incremental Policies Are Approaching The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed to be stepped up. The economic growth momentum continues to slow down, consumption repair is unstable, and the economic fundamentals are still weak. Incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints [6][34].

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

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Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 179,324 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - In August 2025, general fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to July[5] - General fiscal expenditure in August 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from July[5] Budget Completion Rates - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[5] - General fiscal expenditure budget completion was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8%[5] Government Debt and Fiscal Support - As of the end of August, net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 72%[2] - The large-scale support phase of government debt financing for general fiscal expenditure is nearing its end, indicating a potential decline in fiscal support for the economy[2] - The issuance of new government debt is approaching its limit, which may hinder the maintenance of high growth rates in general fiscal expenditure going forward[11] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the decline in general fiscal revenue growth[3] - The budget completion rate for government fund revenue in August was 5.3%, lower than the five-year average of 7.1%[18] Economic Growth Implications - The decline in government fund revenue and the nearing end of debt support may put pressure on future economic growth[11] - Retail growth related to "old-for-new" programs has slowed since June, impacting equipment purchase investment growth as well[11]

Group 1: Revenue Performance - In August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2%, with both central and local revenue increasing by 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months amounted to 12.11 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth in cumulative tax revenue [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.2%, 2%, and 8.9% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] - Corporate income tax also achieved positive growth with an increase of 0.3%, highlighting the recovery in key sectors and industries [1] Group 3: Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 10%, while education expenditures increased by 5.6%, reflecting a strong focus on key areas [2] - The acceleration in the issuance and utilization of bond funds contributed to a 30% growth in government fund budget expenditures [2] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal performance for the first eight months is stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The government aims to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic and fiscal interaction, focusing on expanding effective demand and improving livelihoods [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's fiscal revenue continues to show a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 2% in August, totaling 1.24 trillion yuan [1] - In the first eight months, the total fiscal revenue reached 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue has turned positive for the first time, with a total of 12.11 trillion yuan collected, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Public budget expenditure also maintained growth, with a total of 17.93 trillion yuan spent in the first eight months, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Key areas such as social security and employment saw a significant increase in spending, with a growth rate of 10%, while education spending grew by 5.6% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization has contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - Overall, the fiscal operation in the first eight months has been stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The articles emphasize the need to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic and fiscal interaction through effective demand expansion and improvement of people's livelihoods [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first eight months of the year shows a stable trend, with an improvement in revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas, indicating a positive economic outlook [1][2][3] Revenue Summary - In August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with both central and local revenues growing by 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months amounted to 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth [1] - Key tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax grew by 3.2%, 2%, and 8.9% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with social security and employment expenditures rising by 10% and education expenditures by 5.6% [2] - The increase in fiscal expenditure reflects a more proactive fiscal policy, effectively supporting livelihoods and contributing to stable economic operations [2] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds accelerated, with 3.39 trillion yuan spent from various government bonds, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditures [2] Overall Assessment - The fiscal situation is improving, with a stable overall performance in the first eight months, optimized revenue structure, and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - Continued proactive fiscal policy is necessary to enhance economic and fiscal interaction, focusing on expanding effective demand and improving livelihoods [3]

Group 1 - In August, the national general public budget revenue continued to grow, reaching 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months was 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth [1] Group 2 - General public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [2] - Key areas such as social security and employment saw a significant increase in expenditure, with a growth rate of 10% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - The overall fiscal operation remained stable in the first eight months, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The need for a continued proactive fiscal policy is emphasized to enhance economic and fiscal interaction [3]

Revenue Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was 4,738.9 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Domestic consumption tax revenue reached 1,152.3 billion yuan, up by 2% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from import goods value-added tax and consumption tax was 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Tariff revenue was 152.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% year-on-year [1] - Stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty of 118.7 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% [1] Expenditure Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget expenditure totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% [2] - Local government expenditure reached 15,275.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [2] Key Areas of Expenditure - Education expenditure was 27,078.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year [2] - Science and technology expenditure amounted to 5,874.0 billion yuan, up by 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 30,723.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - Health expenditure was 13,717.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in August, highlighting a slight year-on-year increase in tax revenue while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a need for sustained economic growth policies [1][4][25]. Fiscal Revenue - In August, fiscal revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 3.4% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.8%, continuing the trend of stronger tax revenue since May [1][5]. - Cumulative fiscal revenue from January to August showed a slight increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding the initial budget target of 0.1% [1][6]. - The performance of corporate income tax, personal income tax, and domestic value-added tax in August was strong, with year-on-year increases of 33.4%, 9.7%, and 4.4%, respectively [2][11]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure in August showed a decline, with spending growth lower than the average level for the same period in previous years, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure-related expenditures [3][16]. - Social security and employment expenditures maintained a high growth rate of 10.9% year-on-year in August, contributing positively to overall expenditure growth [3][16]. - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to August increased by 3.1%, which is still below the initial budget target of 4.4% [17]. Broader Fiscal Context - Land revenue growth further declined by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8% in August, reflecting a significant drop in land sales [21]. - The overall performance of government fund income from January to August showed a cumulative decline of 1.4%, indicating challenges in meeting the annual growth target of 0.7% [21][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for new policies to stabilize growth, particularly in the context of declining contributions from the real estate sector [25].