Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal revenue growth rate continues to improve, with an enhanced contribution from tax revenues. The overall fiscal expenditure progress is slow, but the decline in infrastructure - related expenditures has narrowed. Government - funded funds show a divergence between revenue and expenditure, with revenue lagging behind expenditure. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of incremental fiscal funds will help the economy operate smoothly, and more incremental policies are still expected [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate Continues to Improve, Tax Revenue Contribution Increases - The growth rate of general public budget revenue from January to September reached 0.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, and improved for three consecutive months. The central government's monthly revenue growth rate improved significantly, and the decline in cumulative growth rate narrowed to - 1.2%, while local fiscal revenue maintained positive growth at a cumulative rate of 1.8%. The fiscal revenue growth rate was slightly higher than the annual budget target by 0.1%, but the completion progress was 74.5%, lower than the historical average [11]. - Tax revenue growth significantly supported the improvement of fiscal revenue, while non - tax revenue growth declined sharply, turning into a negative drag on revenue growth. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 0.7%, reaching the highest value of the year. Non - tax revenue had negative single - month growth for five consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate turned slightly negative at - 0.4% [17]. - In terms of tax revenue structure, VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, individual income tax, and stamp duty all showed positive growth, while land and real - estate - related tax revenue decline was narrowing [18]. 3.2 Overall Expenditure Progress is Slow, Decline in Infrastructure - Related Expenditure Narrows - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.1%, the same as the previous value and lower than the annual budget target of 4.4%. The central government's expenditure growth rate dropped to a new low of 7.3% for the year, while the local government's expenditure growth rate was 2.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. The general public budget expenditure completion progress from January to September was 70.1%, the lowest in the past five years [20]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood - related expenditures remained the focus, and infrastructure - related expenditures improved. Social security and employment expenditures maintained a growth rate of 10%, and infrastructure - related expenditures such as energy conservation and environmental protection and transportation had a growth rate close to 20% for two consecutive months [21]. 3.3 Government - Funded Funds' Revenue and Expenditure Diverge, Revenue Lags Behind Expenditure - From January to September, the government - funded funds' revenue decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the annual budget growth target of 0.7%. The decline in land transfer fees was the main reason for the negative growth. The government - funded funds' expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, higher than the annual budget target of 23.1%. The revenue completion progress was 49.1%, and the expenditure completion progress was 60% [25]. - The issuance of local government special bonds accelerated, with the completion progress of new special bonds in September reaching about 83.6%, still slow in a five - year perspective [25]. 3.4 Incremental Funds are Implemented to Fill Gaps and Expand Investment In September, the National Development and Reform Commission established a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China has disbursed nearly 100 billion yuan. On October 17, the Ministry of Finance issued another 500 billion yuan in carry - over quotas. The implementation of incremental funds will help expand investment and support the stable operation of the economy in the fourth quarter. More incremental policies are still expected [5][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fiscal performance in the first three quarters of 2025, showing a significant increase in public budget expenditures and a slight increase in revenues, indicating a stable economic environment [1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 20,806.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with central budget expenditure at 3,100.8 billion yuan, up 7.3%, and local budget expenditure at 17,705.6 billion yuan, up 2.4% [1] - Key areas of expenditure such as science and technology, social security, education, health, environmental protection, and culture all saw their highest growth rates in three years, with science and technology spending at 710.5 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance has focused on disaster relief by establishing a rapid allocation mechanism for disaster relief funds, ensuring efficient fund distribution [2] - In 2025, nearly 35 billion yuan has been allocated for central disaster relief, with 10.5 billion yuan already disbursed to support disaster recovery efforts [2] - The efficiency of emergency rescue operations has improved, with capabilities to ensure rescue forces arrive within two hours and essential supplies within twelve hours [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal performance of China, particularly in September, highlighting improvements in both fiscal revenue and expenditure compared to previous months. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Growth**: - Fiscal revenue growth increased to **2.6% year-on-year (yoy)** in September from **2.0% yoy** in August, while fiscal expenditure growth rose to **3.1% yoy** from **0.8% yoy** [1][2][6] - The growth in tax revenue was a significant contributor, offsetting a deeper contraction in non-tax revenue [3][6] 2. **Property-Related Revenue**: - Property-related government revenue showed some improvement, with land sales revenue contracting by **0.9% yoy** in September compared to **-5.4% yoy** in August, and property-related tax revenue contracting by **3.4% yoy** from **-11.6% yoy** [2][7] - Overall, government revenue from the property sector declined by **1.6% yoy** in September, an improvement from **-7.0% yoy** in August [7] 3. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: - The AFD ratio was reported at **-12.6% of GDP** on a 3-month moving average basis, slightly widening from **-12.4%** in August [3][8] - The fiscal "spend-through" ratio increased to **98.8%** in September from **97.3%** in August, indicating an acceleration in fund deployment by the government [8][9] 4. **Future Expectations**: - Despite improvements, structural challenges remain, including a soft labor market and a prolonged property downturn, necessitating targeted easing measures [9] - The majority of growth impulses from recent easing measures are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [9] Additional Important Information - The report indicates that the year-to-date government revenue from land sales has fallen by **4.2% yoy**, with a forecast for a **5-10% contraction** for the year due to less favorable base effects in Q4 [7] - The report also notes a significant increase in stamp tax revenue from stock trading, which surged to **342% yoy** in September from **226% yoy** in August, although it only accounted for less than **1%** of total fiscal revenue [6] This summary encapsulates the key points regarding China's fiscal performance and the implications for future economic conditions, highlighting both improvements and ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape.

Revenue Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, general fiscal revenue reached 16.39 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[1] - In September alone, general fiscal revenue was 1.57 trillion, growing by 2.58% year-on-year, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from August[3] - Tax revenue in September was 1.16 trillion, up 8.7% year-on-year, marking a 5.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[3] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure for the first nine months was 20.81 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - September's general fiscal expenditure was 2.87 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08%, up 2.26 percentage points from August[3] - Government fund expenditure in September was 1.23 trillion, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.37%, but down 19.4% from the previous month[11] Fiscal Challenges - Non-tax revenue has seen a continuous decline for five months, with September's figure at 409.9 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year[3] - The government fund budget may face a shortfall of approximately 370 billion due to pressure on land transfer income[5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of 500 billion in local government debt management, with an additional 100 billion compared to 2024[2] Future Outlook - The total deficit for 2026 is expected to be at least as high as this year, with a deficit rate likely to remain around 4%[5] - There are indications of an accelerating economic downturn, necessitating timely policy adjustments to stimulate growth[4] - The focus for the fiscal sector should be on expediting existing policies and increasing tangible work output[4]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first three quarters of 2025 shows a stable and orderly operation, with total public budget revenue at 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and total expenditure at 20.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1][3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue, as the main component of fiscal income, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with value-added tax (the largest tax type) growing by 3.6%, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the general public budget revenue growth rate [3] - Corporate income tax, the second largest tax type, saw a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with the growth rate expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in industrial enterprise profits [3] Expenditure Analysis - Fiscal expenditure has been proactive in the first three quarters, with significant support for key areas such as livelihood and technology [6] - Notable increases in specific expenditure categories include social security and employment (10%), education (5.4%), health (4.7%), science and technology (6.5%), energy conservation and environmental protection (8.8%), and culture, tourism, sports, and media (4%), all reaching the highest growth rates in the past three years [8] Government Support Measures - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local economic and social development [10] - The total scale of government debt has increased by 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with expanded scope to support local governments in addressing existing investment project debts and unpaid corporate accounts, as well as funding eligible projects in major economic provinces to enhance effective investment [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that for the first three quarters of the year, non-tax revenue has experienced a year-on-year decline for the first time, contrasting with previous growth trends [2] - National general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with tax revenue at 132,664 billion yuan, up 0.7%, while non-tax revenue fell to 31,212 billion yuan, down 0.4% [2] - Central general public budget revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, while local general public budget revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, increasing by 1.8% [2] Group 2 - National general public budget expenditure for the first three quarters totaled 208,064 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [3] - Central general public budget expenditure was 31,008 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while local general public budget expenditure reached 177,056 billion yuan, growing by 2.4% [3]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The fiscal revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, with a notable increase in the third quarter of 2.5% [1][2] - Tax revenue, as the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3.6%, and corporate income tax rising by 0.8% [2] - Total fiscal expenditure for the first three quarters was 20.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant growth in social security and employment (10%), education (5.4%), and environmental protection (8.8%) [2][3] Government Debt and Project Funding - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the new local government debt limit for 2026 to support key projects, with a recent allocation of 500 billion yuan from the existing debt limit [1][3] - The new debt limit aims to facilitate early issuance and usage, ensuring that local governments can meet their funding needs for significant projects in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - The recent allocation of 500 billion yuan is 100 billion yuan more than the previous year, aimed at enhancing local government financial capacity and addressing existing debts [3] Policy Adjustments for Consumer Goods - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with customs and tax authorities, announced adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, focusing on expanding consumer demand and diversifying product offerings [4] - The revised policy includes 47 categories of duty-free goods, enhancing the shopping experience for travelers and allowing local residents to purchase certain items without restrictions [4] - The adjustments are expected to stimulate consumption and provide new opportunities for economic growth in Hainan [4]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the national general public budget revenue for the first three quarters reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1][2] - National general public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1][2] - Tax revenue amounted to 132,664 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% to 31,212 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Central general public budget revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] - Major tax revenue items included: - Domestic VAT: 52,271 billion yuan, up 3.6% [3] - Domestic consumption tax: 12,934 billion yuan, up 2.2% [4] - Corporate income tax: 32,527 billion yuan, up 0.8% [5] - Personal income tax: 11,799 billion yuan, up 9.7% [6] - Stamp duty: 3,142 billion yuan, up 34.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty at 1,448 billion yuan, up 103.4% [11] Expenditure Breakdown - National general public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, with central expenditure at 31,008 billion yuan (up 7.3%) and local expenditure at 177,056 billion yuan (up 2.4%) [20] - Key expenditure categories included: - Education: 31,599 billion yuan, up 5.4% [20] - Social security and employment: 34,928 billion yuan, up 10% [21] - Health: 15,712 billion yuan, up 4.7% [21] - Environmental protection: 3,928 billion yuan, up 8.8% [22] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue was 30,717 billion yuan, down 0.5%, with local government fund revenue at 27,441 billion yuan, down 0.6% [27] - Government fund budget expenditure reached 74,924 billion yuan, a significant increase of 23.9%, with local expenditure at 66,834 billion yuan, up 14.9% [28]

National General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - The national general public budget revenue for the first three quarters reached 163,876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [2] - Tax revenue amounted to 132,664 billion yuan, increasing by 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 31,212 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.4% [2] - Central government revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 52,271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 12,934 billion yuan, growing by 2.2% [2] - Corporate income tax reached 32,527 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.8% [3] - Personal income tax was 11,799 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 9.7% [3] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 13,465 billion yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year [4] - Export tax rebates were 17,018 billion yuan, increasing by 8.6% [5] - Stamp duty revenue was 3,142 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 34.5%, including a 103.4% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [7] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [16] - Central government expenditure was 31,008 billion yuan, increasing by 7.3%, while local government expenditure was 177,056 billion yuan, up 2.4% [16] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 31,599 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [16] - Social security and employment expenditure was 34,928 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10% [17] - Health expenditure totaled 15,712 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [17] - Environmental protection expenditure was 208 billion yuan, up 13.8% [14] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue for the first three quarters was 30,717 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [18] - Local government fund budget revenue was 27,441 billion yuan, decreasing by 0.6%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 22,302 billion yuan, down 4.2% [18] - Government fund budget expenditure was 74,924 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 23.9% [18] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,090 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 66,834 billion yuan, up 14.9% [18]

National General Public Budget Revenue - In the first three quarters, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] - Tax revenue accounted for 132,664 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, while non-tax revenue was 31,212 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.4% [2] - Central government revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, down 1.2%, while local government revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 52,271 billion yuan, increasing by 3.6% [3] - Domestic consumption tax amounted to 12,934 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.2% [4] - Corporate income tax reached 32,527 billion yuan, up 0.8% [5] - Personal income tax was 11,799 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 9.7% [6] - Import VAT and consumption tax totaled 13,465 billion yuan, down 5.7%, while customs duties were 1,750 billion yuan, down 4.6% [7] - Export tax rebates were 17,018 billion yuan, increasing by 8.6% [8] - Stamp duty revenue was 3,142 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 34.5%, including a 103.4% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [11] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [20] - Central government expenditure was 31,008 billion yuan, up 7.3%, while local government expenditure was 177,056 billion yuan, increasing by 2.4% [20] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 31,599 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [21] - Social security and employment expenditure was 34,928 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 10% [24] - Expenditure on environmental protection was 3,928 billion yuan, up 8.8% [24] - Expenditure on urban and rural community services decreased by 5.8% to 14,218 billion yuan [24] - Expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water resources was 16,082 billion yuan, down 9% [24] Government Fund Budget Revenue - Government fund budget revenue for the first three quarters was 30,717 billion yuan, a decline of 0.5% [23] - Central government fund budget revenue was 3,276 billion yuan, up 0.7%, while local government fund budget revenue was 27,441 billion yuan, down 0.6% [23] - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 22,302 billion yuan, down 4.2% [23] Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Total government fund budget expenditure was 74,924 billion yuan, a significant increase of 23.9% [24] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,090 billion yuan, showing a dramatic increase of 2.6 times [24] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 66,834 billion yuan, up 14.9% [24]