Group 1 - The effectiveness of fiscal policy is beginning to show, but revenue is still below budget targets. The general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, which is lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the initial budget target of 0.1% [4][5][26] - Monthly improvements in revenue are observed, with April's revenue growth turning positive at 1.9%. The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly below the average of the past five years [4][6] - Government expenditure has exceeded targets, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for the first four months, surpassing the budget target of 4.4%. The expenditure completion rate reached 31.5%, the highest since 2020 [6][9] Group 2 - The narrow fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%, significantly above the average of 12% over the past five years [13][14] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, contributing to a rapid usage of the narrow deficit. The net financing of ordinary government bonds reached 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target [14][18] - Special bonds have seen a slower issuance pace, with a completion rate of 37.1% for the first five months, which is higher than the previous year but lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023 [18][19] Group 3 - There is a potential need for incremental support, with a projected revenue gap of approximately 550 billion yuan for 2025. If revenue performance does not improve, there may be a possibility of increasing government debt quotas [3][26] - Special bonds are expected to be a focus for fiscal efforts in the second half of the year, with an anticipated increase in funds for land reserves, which could alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [27][31] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and various infrastructure projects [33]

Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[6] - In April 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 65,556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[8] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure from January to April 2025 was 93,581 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%[9] - In April 2025, the expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, slightly higher than March's 5.7%[9] - Social security and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, indicating a focus on welfare[11] Government Fund Insights - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to 12,586 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025[17] - In April 2025, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 8.1%, compared to -11.7% in March[17] - Government fund budget expenditure grew by 17.7% year-on-year, with April's growth rate reaching 44.7%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, focusing on urban renewal projects and infrastructure improvements[22] - There is an emphasis on increasing local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to support economic growth[22] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas demand, which could impact future fiscal performance[23]

财政部日前公布了2025年1至4月的财政收支情况。从收入和支出两端看，4月财政收入继续改善，财政 支出节奏加快，各级财政部门持续加大对惠民生、促消费、增后劲的支持力度。 财政部公布的数据显示，1至4月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百 分点。其中，税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点。值得一提的是，税收收入在4 月份增长了1.9%，月度增幅由负转正。 财政支出方面，东方金诚研报认为，4月一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%，增速较3月加快0.1个百分点，大幅高于 当月一般公共预算收入增速，显示财政支出端延续稳增长取向。从支出进度来看，1至4月一般公共预算支出完成 全年预算的31.5%，高于过去五年同期平均水平30.7%。 从结构上看，4月基建类四项支出合计同比增长2.2%，增速较上月加快1.7个百分点，其中，城乡社区事务、交通 运输支出增速明显加快，农林水事务、节能环保支出增速有所放缓。民生类支出中，4月社会保障、科技、卫生健 康支出增速加快，其中，社会保障支出同比增速从上月的9.0%进一步提速至9.6%，或说明稳就业政策力度加大 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fiscal Spending Growth**: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - **Local Government Investment**: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - **Revenue Improvement**: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - **Structural Changes in Public Finance**: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - **Land Sale Revenue**: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Export Tax Revenue**: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to April, the general public budget revenue showed marginal improvement with economic recovery, but structural pressure remained, and subsequent policies were needed to stabilize revenue. The general public budget expenditure accelerated expansion, reflecting active fiscal policy and continuous efforts to stabilize growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still in negative growth but improved, and the expenditure accelerated, continuing to play a key role in stabilizing investment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - From January to April 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.0616 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Tax revenue was 6.5556 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1.506 trillion yuan, up 7.7% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and local revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [35] - Main tax revenue items: domestic VAT was 2.6254 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; domestic consumption tax was 650.2 billion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; enterprise income tax was 1.7341 trillion yuan, down 3.1% year - on - year; personal income tax was 537.6 billion yuan, up 7.4% year - on - year; etc. [36][37][38] General Public Budget Expenditure - From January to April 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 9.3581 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Central expenditure increased by 9% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 3.9% year - on - year [46] - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 1.4481 trillion yuan, up 7.4% year - on - year; science and technology expenditure was 1.1505 trillion yuan, up 3.9% year - on - year; social security and employment expenditure was 4.2114 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year - on - year; etc. [47][48][50] Government - Funded Budget Revenue - From January to April 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 1.2586 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%. Central revenue increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and local revenue decreased by 8% year - on - year. State - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, down 11.4% year - on - year [57] Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - From January to April 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 2.6136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. Central expenditure increased by 75% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 16.6% year - on - year. Expenditure related to state - owned land use right transfer income was 1.3647 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year - on - year [58][59]

宏观研究/宏观点评 一、财政收入继续恢复，支出增速持续上升。1-4 月公共财政收入 累计同比-0.4 %（前值-1.1 %），公共财政支出累计同比 4.6 %（前值 4.2 %）；政府性基金收入累计同比-6.7 %（前值-11.0 %），政府性基金 支出累计同比 17.7 %（前值 11.1 %）。 二、政府性基金支出显著加速：1-4 月，政府性基金收入累计 12,586 亿元，同比-6.7 %（前值-11.0 %），其中国有土地使用权出让收入 9,340 亿元，同比-11.4 %（前值-15.9 %）；政府性基金支出累计 26,136 亿元， 同比 17.7 %（前值 11.1 %），其中国有土地使用权出让收入安排的支 出 13,647 亿元，同比-8.4 %（前值-11.0 %）。 三、公共财政支出结构：1-4 月公共财政支出 93,581 亿元。其中， 中央本级财政支出占比 13.1%，同比 9.0 %（前值 8.9 %）；地方财政支 出占比 86.9% ，同比 3.9 %（前值 3.6 %）。分项目看：1-4 月债务付息 支出累计同比 11.0 %（前值 18.0 %）；社会保障和就业支出累计同比 8 ...

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]

新华社北京5月20日电财政部20日发布了全国财政收支运行的最新情况。数据显示，前4个月全国财政收 入降幅继续收窄，中央收入、税收收入4月份实现正增长；财政支出保持强度，支出进度加快，彰显更 加积极的财政政策靠前发力。 从主要支出科目来看，今年前4个月，社会保障和就业支出16852亿元，同比增长8.5%；教育支出14481 亿元，同比增长7.4%；科学技术支出2953亿元，同比增长3.9%；文化旅游体育与传媒支出1110亿元， 同比增长3.2%；卫生健康支出7462亿元，同比增长3.9%；节能环保支出1687亿元，同比增长6.2%。 "今年以来，财政支出进度明显加快，社保、就业、教育、科技等重点领域支出保障有力，彰显财政政 策靠前发力、更加给力。"何代欣说。 此外，数据显示，今年前4个月，全国政府性基金预算支出26136亿元，同比增长17.7%。 "今年以来，地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债加快发行使用，推动了政府性基金预算支出增长。这 些'真金白银'不仅支持相关项目及早落地，也为地方落实更加积极的财政政策提供支撑。"何代欣说。 从主要税收收入来看，今年前4个月，国内增值税26254亿元，同比增长1.8%；国内 ...

这是前不久自治区人民政府新闻办公室召开的"实施更加积极的财政政策加力提效推动自治区经济社会 高质量发展"新闻发布会上释放出的积极信号。 今年一季度，新疆财政收支继续保持两位数增长，取得"开门红"。 刘艳介绍，今年新疆各级财政部门围绕重点保基本，聚焦补齐民生领域短板，进一步调整优化支出结 构，加大对就业、教育、医疗、社保等民生领域的投入力度，持续完善财政民生保障制度体系，让改革 发展成果更多更公平地惠及人民群众。 一季度，新疆一般公共预算收入累计完成684亿元，同比增长10.8%，增幅位居全国第二；一般公共预 算支出累计完成1681.2亿元，同比增长26.7%，增幅位居全国第一。政府性基金预算收入累计完成88.2 亿元，同比增长30.5%；政府性基金预算支出累计完成221.4亿元，同比增长57.9%。国有资本经营预算 收入累计完成16.5亿元，同比增长13.7%；国有资本经营预算支出累计完成3.6亿元，同比增长275.3%。 财政收支是反映经济运行情况的"晴雨表"。一季度，新疆财政"三本账"收支均实现两位数增长，为全疆 各项事业发展提供了坚实的财力保障，也反映出新疆经济发展向好态势。 财政收入总体平稳 小税种收 ...