Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal revenue growth rate continues to improve, with an enhanced contribution from tax revenues. The overall fiscal expenditure progress is slow, but the decline in infrastructure - related expenditures has narrowed. Government - funded funds show a divergence between revenue and expenditure, with revenue lagging behind expenditure. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of incremental fiscal funds will help the economy operate smoothly, and more incremental policies are still expected [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate Continues to Improve, Tax Revenue Contribution Increases - The growth rate of general public budget revenue from January to September reached 0.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, and improved for three consecutive months. The central government's monthly revenue growth rate improved significantly, and the decline in cumulative growth rate narrowed to - 1.2%, while local fiscal revenue maintained positive growth at a cumulative rate of 1.8%. The fiscal revenue growth rate was slightly higher than the annual budget target by 0.1%, but the completion progress was 74.5%, lower than the historical average [11]. - Tax revenue growth significantly supported the improvement of fiscal revenue, while non - tax revenue growth declined sharply, turning into a negative drag on revenue growth. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 0.7%, reaching the highest value of the year. Non - tax revenue had negative single - month growth for five consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate turned slightly negative at - 0.4% [17]. - In terms of tax revenue structure, VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, individual income tax, and stamp duty all showed positive growth, while land and real - estate - related tax revenue decline was narrowing [18]. 3.2 Overall Expenditure Progress is Slow, Decline in Infrastructure - Related Expenditure Narrows - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.1%, the same as the previous value and lower than the annual budget target of 4.4%. The central government's expenditure growth rate dropped to a new low of 7.3% for the year, while the local government's expenditure growth rate was 2.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. The general public budget expenditure completion progress from January to September was 70.1%, the lowest in the past five years [20]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood - related expenditures remained the focus, and infrastructure - related expenditures improved. Social security and employment expenditures maintained a growth rate of 10%, and infrastructure - related expenditures such as energy conservation and environmental protection and transportation had a growth rate close to 20% for two consecutive months [21]. 3.3 Government - Funded Funds' Revenue and Expenditure Diverge, Revenue Lags Behind Expenditure - From January to September, the government - funded funds' revenue decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the annual budget growth target of 0.7%. The decline in land transfer fees was the main reason for the negative growth. The government - funded funds' expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, higher than the annual budget target of 23.1%. The revenue completion progress was 49.1%, and the expenditure completion progress was 60% [25]. - The issuance of local government special bonds accelerated, with the completion progress of new special bonds in September reaching about 83.6%, still slow in a five - year perspective [25]. 3.4 Incremental Funds are Implemented to Fill Gaps and Expand Investment In September, the National Development and Reform Commission established a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China has disbursed nearly 100 billion yuan. On October 17, the Ministry of Finance issued another 500 billion yuan in carry - over quotas. The implementation of incremental funds will help expand investment and support the stable operation of the economy in the fourth quarter. More incremental policies are still expected [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in broad fiscal spending and the need for monitoring the progress of new fiscal funds [1][8]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][8]. - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, recovering by 2.9 percentage points compared to August, while broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down 3.8 percentage points from August [2][9]. Group 2: Budget Completion and Trends - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%, and for broad fiscal expenditure, it was 67.1%, also below the five-year average of 68.5% [2][9]. - The decline in broad fiscal spending is attributed to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a total issuance of 10.3 trillion yuan in net financing and new bonds by September 28, 2025, achieving an issuance progress of 87% [2][14]. Group 3: Incremental Fiscal Funds and Future Outlook - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been established, including a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [3][19]. - The upcoming meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee in late October may involve discussions on new government debt limits, which could impact the allocation of fiscal resources [3][23]. Group 4: Revenue Improvement and Spending Trends - Broad fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September 2025, while government fund revenue rose by 5.6% [4][28]. - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, contributing to a further drop in broad fiscal expenditure growth, which was 2.3% year-on-year in September, down from August [4][51].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[5] - National general public budget expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[5] - By September 2025, the completion rate of general public budget revenue was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%[6] Fiscal Trends - General fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, rebounding by 2.9 percentage points from August[6] - General fiscal expenditure in September 2025 grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to August[6] - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 10.3 trillion yuan by September 28, 2025, with an issuance progress of 87%[8] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds, including new general and special bonds, totaled 10.3 trillion yuan, which is 2.8 trillion yuan more than the previous year[8] - The issuance of new special bonds was 36,612 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83%, lagging behind the same period in 2024 by over 6 percentage points[8] - A new policy-oriented financial tool of 500 billion yuan was established by the end of September 2025, with over 100 billion yuan already allocated to sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence by mid-October[11] Budget Completion and Spending - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure in September 2025 was 9.7%, consistent with the five-year average[26] - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% in September 2025, down over 19 percentage points from August[34] - The completion rate for government fund income in September 2025 was 6.8%, higher than the 5.7% in 2024 but below the five-year average of 7.1%[18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in broad fiscal spending and the need for monitoring the progress of new fiscal funds [1][8]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditure was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][8]. - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in September 2025, recovering by 2.9 percentage points compared to August, while broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down 3.8 percentage points from August [2][9]. Group 2: Budget Completion and Trends - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 68.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 69.9%, and for broad fiscal expenditure, it was 67.1%, also below the five-year average of 68.5% [2][9]. - The slowdown in broad fiscal spending is attributed to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a total issuance of 10.3 trillion yuan in net financing and new bonds by September 28, 2025, achieving an issuance progress of 87% [2][14]. Group 3: Incremental Fiscal Funds and Future Outlook - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been established, including a new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan and a local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan [3][19]. - The upcoming meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee in late October may involve the review of new government debt limits, which could impact the fiscal capacity for the fourth quarter and the following year [3][23]. Group 4: Revenue Improvement and Spending Trends - Broad fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 2.6% year-on-year in September 2025, while government fund revenue rose by 5.6% [4][28]. - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, contributing to a further drop in broad fiscal expenditure growth, which was 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025 [4][51].