Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal revenue growth rate continues to improve, with an enhanced contribution from tax revenues. The overall fiscal expenditure progress is slow, but the decline in infrastructure - related expenditures has narrowed. Government - funded funds show a divergence between revenue and expenditure, with revenue lagging behind expenditure. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of incremental fiscal funds will help the economy operate smoothly, and more incremental policies are still expected [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate Continues to Improve, Tax Revenue Contribution Increases - The growth rate of general public budget revenue from January to September reached 0.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, and improved for three consecutive months. The central government's monthly revenue growth rate improved significantly, and the decline in cumulative growth rate narrowed to - 1.2%, while local fiscal revenue maintained positive growth at a cumulative rate of 1.8%. The fiscal revenue growth rate was slightly higher than the annual budget target by 0.1%, but the completion progress was 74.5%, lower than the historical average [11]. - Tax revenue growth significantly supported the improvement of fiscal revenue, while non - tax revenue growth declined sharply, turning into a negative drag on revenue growth. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 0.7%, reaching the highest value of the year. Non - tax revenue had negative single - month growth for five consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate turned slightly negative at - 0.4% [17]. - In terms of tax revenue structure, VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, individual income tax, and stamp duty all showed positive growth, while land and real - estate - related tax revenue decline was narrowing [18]. 3.2 Overall Expenditure Progress is Slow, Decline in Infrastructure - Related Expenditure Narrows - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.1%, the same as the previous value and lower than the annual budget target of 4.4%. The central government's expenditure growth rate dropped to a new low of 7.3% for the year, while the local government's expenditure growth rate was 2.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. The general public budget expenditure completion progress from January to September was 70.1%, the lowest in the past five years [20]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood - related expenditures remained the focus, and infrastructure - related expenditures improved. Social security and employment expenditures maintained a growth rate of 10%, and infrastructure - related expenditures such as energy conservation and environmental protection and transportation had a growth rate close to 20% for two consecutive months [21]. 3.3 Government - Funded Funds' Revenue and Expenditure Diverge, Revenue Lags Behind Expenditure - From January to September, the government - funded funds' revenue decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the annual budget growth target of 0.7%. The decline in land transfer fees was the main reason for the negative growth. The government - funded funds' expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, higher than the annual budget target of 23.1%. The revenue completion progress was 49.1%, and the expenditure completion progress was 60% [25]. - The issuance of local government special bonds accelerated, with the completion progress of new special bonds in September reaching about 83.6%, still slow in a five - year perspective [25]. 3.4 Incremental Funds are Implemented to Fill Gaps and Expand Investment In September, the National Development and Reform Commission established a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China has disbursed nearly 100 billion yuan. On October 17, the Ministry of Finance issued another 500 billion yuan in carry - over quotas. The implementation of incremental funds will help expand investment and support the stable operation of the economy in the fourth quarter. More incremental policies are still expected [5][30].

事件 ：10月17日，财政部公布2025年前三季度财政收支情况。前三季度，全国一般公共预算收入163876亿元， 同比增长0.5%；全国一般公共预算支出208064亿元，同比增长3.1%。 点评：广义财政支出继续降速，应对后续财政支出趋弱压力，两类增量财政资金已落地 广义财政支出延续回落，前三季度预算完成度低于过去五年平均水平。 2025年9月，广义财政收入同比3.2%， 较8月同比回暖2.9个百分点；广义财政支出同比2.3%，较8月同比下降3.8个百分点。从预算完成度看，前三季度 广义财政收入预算完成68.9%，低于过去五年69.9%的平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成67.1%，低于过去五年平 均68.5%。 广义财政支出继续降速，或主因政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。 截至9月28日，国债净融资+新增一般债 +新增专项债累计发行10.3万亿元，发行进度87%；新增专项债累计发行进度83%，同比落后2024年同期6个百分 点。同时，截至8月中旬，除第四批消费品"以旧换新"资金外，注资商业银行、"两重"项目、设备更新等也已基 本下达完毕。 应对四季度财政支出趋弱压力，两类增量资金已接续落地，后续密切跟踪资金落地 ...

2025 年 10 月 18 日 内 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 财政数据 点评：广义财政支出继续降速，应对后续财政支出趋弱压力，两类增量资金已接续落地 广义财政支出延续回落，前三季度预算完成度低于过去五年平均水平。2025年 9 月，广 义财政收入同比 3.2%，较 8 月同比回暖 2.9 个百分点：广义财政支出同比 2.3%，较 8 月 同比下降 3.8 个百分点。从预算完成度看，前三季度广义财政收入预算完成 68.9%，低于 过去五年 69.9%的平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成 67.1%，低于过去五年平均 68.5%。 广义财政支出继续降速，或主困政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。截至 9 月 28 日，国 债净融资+新增一般债+新增专项债累计发行 10.3 万亿元，发行进度 87%;新增专项债累 计发行进度 83%，同比落后 2024年同期 6 个百分点。同时，截至 8 月中旬，除第四批消 费品"以旧换新"资金外，注资商业银行、"两重"项目、设备更新等也已基本下达完毕。 应对四季度财政支出趋弱压力 ...

事件 ：10月17日，财政部公布2025年前三季度财政收支情况。前三季度，全国一般公共预算收入163876亿元， 同比增长0.5%；全国一般公共预算支出208064亿元，同比增长3.1%。 点评：广义财政支出继续降速，应对后续财政支出趋弱压力，两类增量财政资金已落地 广义财政支出延续回落，前三季度预算完成度低于过去五年平均水平。 2025年9月，广义财政收入同比3.2%， 较8月同比回暖2.9个百分点；广义财政支出同比2.3%，较8月同比下降3.8个百分点。从预算完成度看，前三季度 广义财政收入预算完成68.9%，低于过去五年69.9%的平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成67.1%，低于过去五年平 均68.5%。 广义财政支出继续降速，或主因政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。 截至9月28日，国债净融资+新增一般债 +新增专项债累计发行10.3万亿元，发行进度87%；新增专项债累计发行进度83%，同比落后2024年同期6个百分 点。同时，截至8月中旬，除第四批消费品"以旧换新"资金外，注资商业银行、"两重"项目、设备更新等也已基 本下达完毕。 应对四季度财政支出趋弱压力，两类增量资金已接续落地，后续密切跟踪资金落地 ...