Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tensions between the United States and India regarding trade policies, particularly in light of India's purchase of Russian oil amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and highlights India's stance on maintaining its economic interests and energy security [2][3]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, with potential additional punitive tariffs due to India's procurement of Russian energy [3]. - Trump accused India of profiting from the resale of Russian oil, threatening to significantly increase tariffs, although he did not specify the amount [3]. Group 2: India's Response - India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that the accusations against India are unfair and emphasized that the country will take necessary measures to protect its national interests and economic security [2]. - The statement clarified that India's purchase of Russian oil was a "passive choice" due to the disruption of traditional supply sources following the conflict, and that the U.S. had previously supported India's actions to stabilize the global energy market [2]. Group 3: Comparative Trade Data - The article notes that the trade volume between the EU and Russia is significantly larger than that of India, with the EU's trade with Russia reaching €67.5 billion in 2024 and service trade at €17.2 billion in 2023, far exceeding India's trade with Russia during the same period [2]. - In 2024, the EU's imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia hit a historical high of 16.5 million tons, indicating a broader reliance on Russian energy among Western nations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 4, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, chemical futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. - The report also provides an analysis of the previous day's (August 1) market performance of these futures contracts and gives monthly trend forecasts for some futures contracts in August 2025 [17][47]. - It summarizes recent macro - economic news and policies, which may have an impact on the futures market [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. Bonds issued before August 8 will be exempt from VAT until maturity [8]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and increase financing support for key areas [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and is accelerating the revision of the Price Law to regulate market price order. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade - in has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [9]. - The "Financial Infrastructure Supervision and Administration Measures" will come into effect on October 1, 2025, focusing on the business supervision of financial infrastructure [9]. - Natural persons purchasing national bonds with a monthly quota of no more than 1 million yuan will enjoy a VAT exemption on interest income until December 31, 2027 [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the approval of new policy - based financial instruments, and government bond issuance is expected to speed up, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the sales revenue of national enterprises maintained stable growth, and the manufacturing industry showed steady improvement, with significant effects of the "two new" policies [10]. - Multiple departments will introduce policies to release domestic demand potential, promote innovation integration, and manage over - capacity in key industries [10]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far less than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in October [11]. - US President Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached agreements with the US, effective August 7, 2025 [11]. - The US trade representative stated that the new round of tariffs imposed by Trump will not be adjusted [12]. - Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates significantly and threatened to take over if the Fed does not act [12]. - Some Fed officials are concerned about the impact of the delay in interest rate cuts on the labor market [12]. - Fed official Bostic believes that employment data shows a slowdown in the economy but will not change the FOMC's decision this week [12]. - Fed official Kugler will leave office early, creating uncertainty about the Fed's future leadership [13]. - New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [13]. - As of July 31, 2025, the average effective tariff rate on US imports reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, which has been criticized [13]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 48, a nine - month low [13]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On August 1, most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with black - series, energy, and chemical products mostly falling, while some oilseeds rose [14]. - On August 1, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.01% and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% [14]. - On August 1, international oil prices fell due to increased crude oil inventories and production increase expectations. US WTI crude oil futures fell 2.89%, and Brent crude oil futures fell 3.04% [15]. - On August 1, most London base metals closed higher, except for zinc which fell [15]. - On August 1, agricultural product futures on the Chicago Board of Trade and the Intercontinental Exchange closed lower [16]. - OPEC + agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, reversing the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut in 2023 [16]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange situation monitoring and management to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market [16]. - On August 1, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index fell [17]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the CSI 300股指期货主力合约 IF2509, SSE 50股指期货主力合约 IH2509, and CSI 500股指期货主力合约 IC2509 all showed a downward trend, while the CSI 1000股指期货主力合约 IM2509 showed a slight upward trend [17][18][19]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025,股指期货 will fluctuate and consolidate. In August 2025, the four major股指期货 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [24][23]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On August 1, the ten - year treasury bond futures主力合约 T2509 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures主力合约 TL2509 both showed a weakening trend [41][44]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the T2509 and TL2509 contracts will fluctuate strongly [43][47]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals Futures - On August 1, the gold futures主力合约 AU2510 showed a slight upward trend, and the silver futures主力合约 AG2510 showed a downward trend [47][56]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, both the AU2510 and AG2510 contracts will fluctuate strongly. In August 2025, both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [48][57]. 3.3.4 Base Metals Futures - On August 1, most base metal futures showed a mixed performance. For example, the copper futures主力合约 CU2509 showed a slight upward trend, while the aluminum futures主力合约 AL2509 showed a downward trend [60][65]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, most base metal futures will continue their previous trends, with some showing weak fluctuations and some showing strong fluctuations. In August 2025, most are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [60][65][74]. 3.3.5 Energy Futures - On August 1, the crude oil futures主力合约 SC2509 showed a downward trend. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the SC2509 contract will fluctuate weakly. In August 2025, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [117]. 3.3.6 Chemical Futures - On August 1, most chemical futures showed a downward trend, such as PTA, PVC, and methanol futures. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, most chemical futures will continue to fluctuate weakly [121][124][126]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Product Futures - On August 1, the soybean meal futures主力合约 M2509 showed a slight upward trend, while the palm oil futures主力合约 P2509 showed a slight upward but weak trend. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the M2509 contract will fluctuate strongly, and the P2509 contract will fluctuate weakly [129][133].

Core Viewpoint - Protests erupted in Brazilian cities such as Brasília and Rio de Janeiro on August 1, opposing U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods and interference in Brazil's judicial matters, which are seen as violations of Brazilian sovereignty [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Protests and Public Sentiment - The protests were a direct response to the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Brazilian products, which has sparked strong discontent among the Brazilian populace [1] - Demonstrators are also opposing U.S. demands for Brazil to halt judicial investigations into former President Bolsonaro, indicating a broader concern over national sovereignty and judicial independence [1] U.S.-Brazil Relations - The U.S. has announced tariffs on Brazilian goods while simultaneously requesting Brazil to cease judicial inquiries related to Bolsonaro, leading to heightened tensions between the two nations [1]

| 98.8489 前收 100.0654 开盘 100.0560 -1.2165 - -1.22% - 卖出 - 98.8489 - 买入 - 98.8489 | | --- | | 最高 100.2588 今年来 -8.88% 20 日 1.78% | | 最低 98.6656 10 日 0.21% 60 日 -1.77% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | 8月首个交易日，美国股市承压下行，投资者在消化疲软的经济数据与特朗普总统更新关税政策的双重打击下纷纷减仓。 截至发稿，道琼斯工业平均指数大跌520多点，跌幅达1.2%；标普500指数亦大跌1.3%；科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌超1.6%。 此外，美元指数大跌1.2%至98.84，美债10年收益率下滑13bp。 与此同时，特朗普总统继续向美联储主席鲍威尔发难。他在一则言辞激烈的帖子中敦促美联储立刻降息。"太迟太少。杰罗姆'太迟'鲍威尔简直是个灾 难，快把利率降下来！" 市场的主要压力来自最新公布的7月就业报告。数据显示，非农就业岗位仅新增7.3万个，远低于经济学家此前预期的10万个。更令人担忧的是，前两个月 的就业数据被大幅下修：6月 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Trade plans to actively respond to U.S. copper tariffs to minimize domestic impact [1]

Core Insights - China's automotive export volume has surpassed 5.859 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.33% [1] - The UK government has introduced a subsidy policy for electric vehicles totaling £650 million, which excludes most Chinese-manufactured electric vehicles, indicating a targeted approach against Chinese brands [4][15] - Chinese automakers, led by BYD, are rapidly expanding their presence in key European markets, with BYD achieving a record sales increase of 557.5% in the UK [7][10] Group 1: Export Growth and Market Presence - In the first five months of 2025, China's automotive export volume reached 2.49 million units [1] - BYD has established a significant footprint in 112 countries and regions, with overseas sales reaching 472,100 units in the first half of 2025, a historical high [11] - The UK has become the largest target market for Chinese brands due to the absence of additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [7] Group 2: Policy Challenges and Market Dynamics - The UK's new subsidy policy is perceived as a protectionist measure that may hinder the growth of Chinese electric vehicles in the local market [15] - The policy requires manufacturers to meet specific carbon emission thresholds, effectively excluding many Chinese electric vehicles from eligibility [4][15] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with local UK manufacturers potentially facing pressure to reduce costs rather than innovate due to the protective measures [6] Group 3: Resilience and Adaptation of Chinese Automakers - Chinese automakers are facing various challenges, including tariffs and discriminatory policies, yet they demonstrate resilience and adaptability in international markets [14][16] - The establishment of local production bases and a robust global supply chain network is a strategic response to trade challenges faced by companies like BYD [15][16] - The ongoing expansion and innovation efforts by Chinese brands are crucial for gaining recognition and acceptance in international markets [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Chinese Manufacturers' Association announced that Wu Jiezhen will become the CEO starting August 1, 2025, aiming to lead the association towards new milestones [1] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Wu Jiezhen has nearly 30 years of service in the Hong Kong Customs, holding various enforcement and management positions [1] - She has experience in tax protection, drug enforcement, intellectual property protection, import and export control, and anti-smuggling enforcement [1] - Wu has previously been seconded to the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and the Security Bureau for government policy research and formulation [1] Group 2: Strategic Vision - The association's president, Lu Jinrong, welcomed Wu's appointment, highlighting her extensive cross-disciplinary knowledge and leadership skills [1] - Wu is expected to inject new thinking into the association, enhancing its role as an "enabler" and "connecting bridge" for local and mainland enterprises [1] - Wu emphasized the need for the association to improve its adaptability and foresight in response to geopolitical and trade protection uncertainties [1] Group 3: Future Initiatives - Wu plans to leverage her past experiences to deepen policy initiatives, optimize services, and expand international networks [1] - The goal is to assist the industry in navigating transformative waves and contribute to the high-quality development of Hong Kong and the nation [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 improved by $271 million from the prior quarter, driven by higher shipment volumes and operational efficiency [4] - Average selling price increased to $10.15 per ton, a $35 per ton increase from the prior quarter, primarily due to higher index pricing [20] - Unit costs decreased by $15 per ton, contrary to previous expectations of a slight increase [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volumes reached 4.3 million tons, a 150,000 ton increase from the prior quarter, allowing for more efficient mill operations [20] - The stainless steel business saw a significant investment of $150 million in a bright annealing line, expected to improve quality and productivity [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. steel market remains strong, with Section 232 tariffs positively impacting both the steel and automotive sectors [5][6] - Imported steel and automotive imports hit multi-year lows, indicating a favorable environment for domestic producers [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on cost-cutting and optimizing its footprint, with initiatives expected to show impact in the second half of the year [4] - Cleveland Cliffs is positioned to support the resurgence in American vehicle production, leveraging its integrated business model [14][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the macro trends aligning favorably for the company, anticipating a better second half of 2025 compared to the first half [28] - The company expects to continue reducing costs and improving EBITDA generation in the coming quarters [26] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $2.7 billion in liquidity and no near-term maturities, with net debt on a downward trajectory [23] - Plans for potential non-core asset sales are underway, which could unlock significant value for shareholders [24][93] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about the cadence of cost reductions from here? - Management expects costs to decrease by another $20 per ton from Q2 to Q3, with further reductions anticipated in Q4 [32] Question: Can you provide insights on CapEx expectations for 2027? - There is no reline scheduled for 2026, and the Middletown project is being revamped to enhance operations without hydrogen [34][36] Question: How should we think about free cash flow generation in the second half? - Free cash flow is expected to improve significantly, with a focus on using cash to pay down debt [41] Question: What are the expectations for average selling price and volume in Q3? - Shipments are expected to remain flat at 4.3 million tons, with continued EBITDA improvement anticipated [52][56] Question: What is the outlook for the Canadian market? - Management believes there is potential for growth in Canada, contingent on local policies and market conditions [60][62] Question: Can you discuss automotive volumes in Q2? - Automotive volumes are growing as OEMs shift production back to the U.S. and reduce reliance on imports [69][70]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China regarding graphite used in lithium battery anodes, highlighting the U.S. Department of Commerce's preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on imported anode graphite from China, which could lead to a total estimated tariff of around 160% by December 5 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade conflict over graphite mirrors the previous tensions over rare earth elements, characterized by a short-term "hit and talk" approach and a long-term structural confrontation [2]. - Both graphite and rare earths are strategic resources for emerging industries, with overlapping applications in sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and military [2]. - The U.S. heavily relies on imports for both graphite and rare earths, with 100% dependence on natural graphite and 90% on spherical graphite, primarily sourced from China [6]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - The anti-dumping tax applies to all anode-grade graphite materials meeting a carbon content requirement of at least 90%, covering natural, synthetic, and mixed forms [3][4]. - The U.S. producers, represented by the American Anode Materials Producers (AAAMP), argue that the current 25% tariff is insufficient to counteract the alleged dumping practices by Chinese suppliers, with claims of dumping margins as high as 920% [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - The imposition of tariffs has faced opposition from the U.S. electric vehicle industry, including companies like Tesla and Panasonic, due to potential increases in battery costs [7]. - The tariffs are seen as part of a broader strategy that intertwines trade policy with macroeconomic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to elevate the price of Chinese battery products to align more closely with U.S. or allied nations' products [7]. Group 4: Globalization Challenges - The uncertainty surrounding globalization is increasing, with implications for China's lithium battery industry and its international expansion strategies [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Trump announced a 30% tariff on all goods from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, as a pressure tactic to negotiate trade terms [1][3][5] - Trump has sent similar letters to over 20 countries, indicating that those who do not negotiate may face tariffs of 15% to 20% [3][5] - The announcement is seen as a significant escalation in trade tensions, potentially leading to a trade war if the EU retaliates with their own tariffs [5][7] Group 2 - The impact on Mexico could be severe, as the 30% tariff would disrupt established trade relationships, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors [5][7] - For the EU, the tariffs would affect a wide range of products, including automobiles, machinery, and luxury goods, which could lead to increased prices in the U.S. market [5][7] - Trump's approach is characterized as "extreme pressure," with clear demands for Mexico to combat drug trafficking and for the EU to open its markets [5][7]