Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that future decisions regarding key interest rates will depend on the persistence of inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends to inform monetary policy decisions [1] - The focus on inflation expectations suggests a proactive approach to managing economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that there is room for further interest rate cuts if inflation continues to ease [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is closely monitoring inflation trends and is prepared to adjust monetary policy accordingly [1] - A continued decline in inflation could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The central bank's focus remains on achieving its inflation targets while supporting economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that it is currently difficult to determine whether new tariff threats will undermine the prospects for inflation moderation [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of new tariffs on inflation is highlighted, indicating potential challenges for economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India may consider an interest rate cut in the fourth quarter, with a possibility of earlier action, as June's CPI is expected to decline to 2.2%, the lowest since February 2019 [1] Inflation Outlook - The June CPI year-on-year rate is projected to decrease to 2.2%, down from 2.82% in May, indicating a continued slowdown in inflation [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to favorable base effects from food price inflation, which offsets the monthly increase in food costs [1] Central Bank Policy - The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, with the potential for earlier action if inflation trends continue [1] - The risk of food price shocks is considered low, supporting the case for a rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September due to a moderation in inflation and a slowdown in inflationary pressures [1] - The expected terminal interest rate has been revised to a range of 3% to 3.25%, down from the previous estimate of 3.5% to 3.75% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming meeting due to weaker-than-expected growth and inflation data [1] Inflation and Economic Data - Australia's overall inflation rate decreased from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May, approaching the central bank's target range lower limit of 2-3% [1] - The latest monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicates a decline in voluntary resignation rates, shifting wage negotiations towards job security, which may lead to a slowdown in wage growth beyond current expectations [1] Future Rate Expectations - Given the prevailing risks of declining growth and inflation, the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been increased by 25 basis points, with an expected cash rate of 3.1% by the end of the year [1] - Global tariff uncertainties persist, but both overall and core inflation have established a downward trend, likely maintaining around the midpoint of the 2-3% range in the coming quarters [1]

Group 1 - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that many sectors are beginning to show a significant slowdown in inflation, and this trend is expected to continue [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Central Bank of Russia, led by Governor Nabiullina, has observed a faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank is closely monitoring inflation trends and adjusting its policies accordingly [1] - The unexpected pace of inflation decline may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - David Rosenberg warns of an impending U.S. economic recession, suggesting that the current "full cup" state of the stock market will suffer significantly [1] - Rosenberg believes the market is ignoring risks such as tariffs, taxes, geopolitical conflicts, and economic concerns, indicating a disconnect between market optimism and underlying economic signals [1][2] - He expresses a cautious outlook on the stock market, citing a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times in the context of over 4% risk-free interest rates as unattractive [2] Group 2 - Rosenberg acknowledges previous concerns about economic downturns in 2022 and 2023 but reiterates his bearish stance, noting an increase in mortgage refinancing activity and a 25% excess in supply over demand in the housing market [3] - He highlights a cooling labor market and persistent moderate inflation, criticizing the Federal Reserve for inaction and suggesting that rate cuts may come too late to salvage the economy [5] - Rosenberg points out a significant deflationary trend in the service sector, predicting that inflation levels next year will be lower than in a scenario without tariffs [6] Group 3 - The signals from the dollar and bond markets contradict the current optimistic sentiment in the stock market, leading Rosenberg to question where investors should allocate their funds [6] - He indicates that if the signals from the dollar and bond markets are accurate, the S&P 500 index will struggle to maintain levels above 6000 points [7] - As of the latest data, the S&P 500 index closed at 6141 points, just below its historical high, while the dollar index has dropped by 10% this year [10]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：数据波动较大意味着我需要更长时间才能对近期的通胀放缓趋势感到满 意。 ...