Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary supports a strong dollar policy under the Trump administration[4] - Global chip sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year[4] - The average price drop for new passenger cars in January was 37,000 yuan[4] Market Performance - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.54 basis points to 3.498%[4] - The Nasdaq index rose by 2.18% to close at 23,031.21[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.47% to 50,115.67[5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.97% to 6,932.30[5] Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.81% to $68.10[5] - The London gold spot price rose by 3.98% to $4,966.61[5] - The CME Bitcoin futures price surged by 10.64% to $70,580.00[5] Currency Exchange - The U.S. dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 6.94, down by 0.01%[5]

今日周四(2月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于78.55一线下方，今日开盘于88.14美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报75.87美元/盎司，下跌13.95%，最高触及90.41美元/盎司，最低下探74.44美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 贝森特表示，尽管特朗普上任以来实施了一系列关税政策，但美国经济仍在增长，通胀也在逐渐下降。 【要闻速递】 另外，纽约州民主党众议员格雷戈里.米克斯质询贝森特，是否承诺在利益冲突及外国势力影响审查完 成并向国会汇报前，暂缓或加强货币监理署对总统旗下"世界自由金融公司"任何银行执照或许可申请的 审核。 白银短线价格如期回调，目前短线继续关注回调情况，上方关注82.2/92.2一线，下方关注84.4/82.7一 线。 美国财长贝森特周三再次强调，他一直支持强势美元的政策。在听证会上，就他此前于2024年1月(即特 朗普赢得大选之前)向合作伙伴宣称"关税会引发通胀"的观点，他表示希望纠正之前的言论。"如果我之 前说错了，那我愿意改正。" 贝森特回答"不，议员先生。货币监理署是独立机构"时，米克斯怒吼道："别再为总统打掩护！别当傀 儡！为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to significantly impact monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and increased bond yields, while causing a sharp decline in precious metal prices [2][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's nomination, the dollar index surged from approximately 96.1 to around 97.2, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 5 basis points to over 4.27%, briefly exceeding 4.28% [2]. - Gold prices fell sharply, retreating 9.13% after reaching over $5,500 per ounce at the end of January [5]. - Silver prices experienced a cumulative decline of 26.20% over three days [7]. Group 2: Kevin Warsh's Background and Policy Stance - Warsh is not a new face at the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and being a vocal critic of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) during the 2008 financial crisis [8]. - He has criticized the Fed's balance sheet expansion and proposed reforms aimed at returning to a more disciplined monetary policy framework [9][20]. Group 3: Implications of Warsh's Policies - Warsh advocates for "balance sheet reduction in exchange for interest rate cuts," aiming to control inflation while supporting short-term economic growth and asset prices [9]. - His hawkish stance is expected to strengthen the dollar, as the Fed may prioritize balance sheet management over merely lowering interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [14]. - The anticipated reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could tighten offshore dollar liquidity, raising global financing costs and impacting emerging markets reliant on dollar funding [15][18]. Group 4: Factors Behind Precious Metal Price Declines - The decline in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including speculative long positions being liquidated and a high concentration of leveraged positions that triggered a domino effect of forced selling [10][12]. - The strong dollar, driven by Warsh's nomination, exerts downward pressure on commodities priced in dollars, including gold and silver [14]. - Increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures by institutions like the CME have forced high-leverage positions to close, exacerbating liquidity issues and price volatility [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold and silver may continue to face selling pressure as the market adjusts to the new environment of tightening dollar liquidity [17]. - Warsh's potential policy implementation could lead to a more structured and predictable monetary policy, enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of the Fed in the long run [17][20]. - However, the transition may involve significant short-term challenges, particularly for emerging markets that depend on offshore dollar liquidity, which could face capital outflows and increased financing costs [18][19].

于是，"血流成河"，又上演了一场经济学的公开课。没有只涨不跌的周期，也没有"这一次不一样"的例外。每一次都一样，成败皆贪婪，涨跌皆泡沫。 这是一次技术性回调，还是黄金牛市的终结，人们莫衷一是。因为谁也预测不了明天，特别是"黑天鹅"乱飞的当下。 所以，美元弱势和黄金牛市，是一个生态位上的跷跷板。美元指数不断走低的过程，恰是黄金价格不断走高的过程，因此一旦弱势美元的政策偏好生变， 美国重新寻求强势美元，那黄金牛市毫无疑问将受阻。 任何政策都有利有弊，没有完美的政策，可以一劳永逸解决所有问题。所谓好的政策，都是解决部分时期的部分问题。弱势美元的"好处"是一方面，但带 来的副作用就是美债收益率不断上升，美国政府的利息负担越来越重，债务危机如影随形。 特别是，弱势美元所导致的美元地位的下降，也在全球导致了进一步去美元化。全球央行持续购金，再加上近年来地缘政治风险劣化加剧，这构成了支撑 黄金牛市的另一种力量。 黄金成了新的修罗场。 1月30日，黄金价格经历了踩踏式的暴跌，并且是过山车式的暴跌。现货黄金价格在势不可挡攀至5600美元之际，便以迅雷不及掩耳之势下坠，一度跌至 4700美元之下，最终当日跌幅超过9%，创下40多 ...

当地时间1月31日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期尚未结束，但这一提前布局已在华 尔街引发争议。 现年55岁的沃什曾是美联储历史上最年轻的理事之一，以在2008年金融危机期间充当华尔街与华盛顿的"联络人"而闻名。（红星新闻相关报 道：） ▲沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席 有分析认为，如果仅仅将此视为一次人事更迭，便误读了特朗普政府的真正意图，沃什的上台可能意味着，为了重振美国制造业，特朗普政府正试图终 结"强势美元"时代，并将货币政策从属于国家增长战略，一个旨在通过弱势美元重振美国制造业的"海湖庄园三角战略"隐约成型。 "华盛顿-东京-首尔"三角 复刻"里根式"货币策略？ 2025年11月，沃什曾撰文抨击现任美联储领导层"思维僵化"，认为美联储高估了通胀风险，却低估了人工智能（AI）带来的生产力爆发。他主张即使在经济 增长强劲时也可以降息，因为AI的普及将降低单位劳动力成本，从而抑制通胀。 意大利资深评论员费德里科·兰皮尼分析，美元的未来或许并不由华盛顿的埃克尔斯大楼（美联储总部大楼）决定，而是由佛罗里达的海湖庄园决定。 分析称，这让人联想到1985年的"广场协 ...

特朗普29日早些时候表示，将于下周宣布人选，但在当晚与沃什会面后，决定将宣布时间提前至30日上 午。这一任命还需要国会参议院的正式确认通过。 来源：视觉中国 据央视新闻报道，美东时间1月30日上午，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什出 任下一任美联储主席，接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。 在特朗普的第一任期内，沃什也曾是美联储主席的热门候选人之一，但最终败于现任主席鲍威尔。过去 十年，沃什一直是自由贸易和强势美元的坚定拥护者。 沃什虽看好技术革命对生产率的提振并支持降息，但他认为应该先缩表、再降息。他强烈批评美联储过 去15年的激进资产负债表操作，认为量化宽松政策偏离了央行核心职责，必须有计划地通过缩表回归传 统。 总而言之，沃什无论是专业水平还是协调各方的能力均比其他竞争者合适，也更受华尔街青睐，但其对 特朗普的忠诚程度相对较低。 华西证券分析师肖金川此前在研报中表示，无论谁担任美联储主席，都将面临白宫和财政部更大的压 力。 "远离选举政治，不要卷入选举政治。千万别这么做。"鲍威尔在最近的新闻发布会上向他的继任者呼 吁。他强调，一旦失去独立性，美联储的信誉将难以恢复。 原本最被热炒的国家经济委员 ...

原油升至四个月高点，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁将再次打击伊朗，敦促德黑兰进行磋商以达成核协 议。 "希望伊朗能尽快'回到谈判桌前'，磋商达成一项公平公正的协议，"特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，并 表示，跟去年那次相比，"下一次打击将严重得多！" 伊朗原油供应面临的潜在风险已经推升了油价，推动原油期货年初表现强劲，本月涨幅超过10%，尽管 市场预测将出现供应过剩。这也使得看涨期权的成本相对于看跌期权维持高位。 特朗普周三还表示，他下令派往中东的美国舰艇舰队规模大于派往委内瑞拉的舰队。 "随着2025年下半年盛行的供给过剩叙事逐步减弱，市场情绪似乎正在逐渐转向更为积极，"渣打银行分 析师Emily Ashford等人在报告中写道，"我们预计市场波动性将有所上升，供需风险也将日益受到关 注。" 现货方面，一份政府报告显示，美国原油库存上周下降230万桶，降幅明显高于一份备受关注的行业报 告所预测的水平。但成品油库存的增加抵消了这一利好数据，其中汽油库存升至2020年以来最高。 WTI 3月期货价格上涨1.3%，结算价报每桶63.21美元； 布伦特3月期货结算价上涨1.2%，报每桶68.40美元。 新浪合 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel futures market is under pressure due to a rebound in the US dollar index and profit-taking by bulls, with LME nickel closing down 2.63% at $17,600, a decrease of $475 per ton [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 140,620 yuan per ton, down 470 yuan, a decline of 0.33% [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is influencing market sentiment, with the US dollar index rising 0.3% to 99.18, nearing a four-week high, which negatively impacts dollar-denominated commodities like nickel [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a long-term contraction versus short-term oversupply, with LME nickel inventories remaining high at 284,148 tons, indicating ample market resources [2][3] - Demand from the stainless steel sector is weak due to profit compression and high price aversion, leading to low transaction volumes and negatively affecting nickel demand [2] - The electric vehicle sector's demand for high-nickel batteries is not yet scaled up, while traditional demand from electroplating and alloys shows no significant increase [2] Group 3: Industry Structure and Trends - The industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with upstream resource countries controlling supply and enhancing bargaining power, while the midstream smelting sector faces overcapacity pressures [3] - The overall inventory pattern in the industry shows "upstream accumulation, downstream depletion," indicating a mismatch in supply and demand across the value chain [3] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum are advancing overseas resource acquisitions to strengthen their nickel and cobalt resource layout [4] - Huayou Cobalt is accelerating integrated capacity construction in Indonesia to leverage cost advantages against price fluctuations [4] - Likang Resources is progressing smoothly with its IPO, aiming to further expand its investments in Indonesia [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The spot market is generally quiet with price fluctuations within a range, and downstream purchasing intentions remain weak [5] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate between 139,000 and 140,000 yuan per ton in the short term, with attention needed on macro sentiment, dollar trends, and the implementation of Indonesian industrial policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strengthening US dollar and changing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of November 24, gold is trading at $4,065.63 per ounce, down $9.33 or 0.23%, continuing a slight downward trend from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index's upward movement is a key factor suppressing gold prices in the short term, with the USD/CNY exchange rate fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11 [2]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a cooling expectation for the Fed's easing policies, which diminishes gold's support as an inflation hedge [2]. Group 2: Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - In the context of a global sell-off of risk assets, gold's safe-haven characteristics have not been fully realized, as evidenced by significant declines in other assets like Bitcoin and crude oil [2]. - During the market adjustment triggered by the US stock market's drop on November 21, gold prices fell by 0.4%, reflecting a shift in safe-haven demand towards dollar-denominated assets [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On a four-hour chart, gold prices have found support near the annual average line, indicating a potential stabilization as buying pressure emerges at critical levels [3]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, suggesting a possible slowdown in the downward trend and a chance for price recovery in the short term [3]. - On an hourly chart, gold has faced resistance at the upper channel line of $4,087, with recent trading occurring in a narrow range between $4,030 and $4,070, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have declined due to a strong US dollar and mixed employment data, leading to cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 16:14 Beijing time, LME three-month copper fell by 0.66% to $10,667 per ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.65% [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract closed down 0.83% at 85,660 yuan per ton, with a weekly drop of 1.43% [1] - LME three-month aluminum decreased by 0.94% to $2,787.50 per ton, zinc fell by 1.33% to $2,976 per ton, lead dropped by 1.07% to $1,989 per ton, tin decreased by 0.79% to $36,775 per ton, and nickel fell by 0.94% to $14,365 per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The mixed September employment data, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth but a rise in the unemployment rate to a near four-year high, is significant for the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] - The September employment data is the last official employment report before the December interest rate decision [1] - Many Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish stance, contributing to the strength of the US dollar, which pressures dollar-denominated commodities [1]