米然将完成原有美联储理事剩余4个月的任期，该任期将于明年1月结束。 当地时间15日，美国参议院还以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过了对特朗普提名的美联储理事候选人、现 任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰的投票。米兰预计将参与9月16日开始的美联储会议。 米兰预计将于本周三宣誓就任美联储理事，之后他将就美联储是否应该降息参加投票。 据悉，当天阿拉斯加州共和党参议员穆尔科斯基（Lisa Murkowski）与所有民主党人一起投票反对该提 名，其他所有共和党人都投了赞成票。 米兰的提名得到确认也意味着，自90多年以来，旨在独立于白宫运作的美联储首次纳入了一位现任政府 官员，这也将意味着，白宫现任官员将罕见参与制定货币政策。 米然将完成原有美联储理事剩余4个月的任期，该任期将于明年1月结束。 米兰一直批评强势美元。在一篇展望2024年的论文中，米兰表示，美元一直被高估，这使得美国难以与 其他国家进行公平的贸易。 史无前例 两党反应不一 作为美联储七人理事会成员之一，米然将对所有美联储利率决议、银行监管规定和重大执法行动拥有投 票权。他此前称，前往联储工作期间将在白宫"停薪留职"，直至明年1月理事任期届满。 米兰决定在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset suggests that the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed on imports may eventually decrease, contingent upon correcting trade imbalances and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Tariffs and Trade Balance - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since World War II, as a result of recent tariff measures [1] - Basset emphasizes that the primary goal of the Trump administration's tariffs is to "rebalance" the U.S. current account deficit, which is projected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The U.S. has lost a significant number of manufacturing jobs over the past 40 to 50 years, and Basset believes that reducing imports will help restore trade balance [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Basset anticipates that most trade negotiations will be completed by the end of October, with negotiations with China being the most critical but challenging [4] - The U.S. has recently reached a trade agreement with Japan, termed the "golden industrial partnership," which includes a commitment from Japan for $550 billion in investments and loans [5] - The agreement with Japan involves reducing tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, although this reduction has not yet been implemented [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Economic Policy - Basset highlights the need to improve the U.S. investment environment to attract foreign direct investment, as the country has experienced trade deficits leading to capital returning primarily in financial forms [7] - The administration's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs faces skepticism from economists, who argue that the necessary labor force and capital are lacking [7][8] - The high costs associated with relocating production to the U.S. present significant challenges, as investors require stable labor supply, local supply chains, and clear tariff policy timelines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, emphasizes that China is both the largest economic and military competitor to the U.S., differing fundamentally in economic policies aimed at job creation compared to Western and Asian democratic nations [2][12][13]. Group 1: Economic Policies - The Trump administration's economic policies are built on three pillars: tax reform, trade, and deregulation, with the "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBB) being passed at record speed [4]. - The trade policy shift towards tariffs aims to rebalance international payments, as the U.S. has lost many manufacturing jobs and production bases to overseas locations [5][12]. - The U.S. is a proponent of free trade, and the goal of changing trade policies is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and promote fair trade [5][12]. Group 2: Trade Relations - If progress is made in reducing trade deficits, there is a possibility of reducing or eliminating reciprocal tariffs over time [6]. - The U.S. and Japan have agreed to reduce Japanese auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, with implementation expected to take around 50 days [8][9]. - Economic security is viewed as synonymous with national security, and the U.S.-Japan trade and investment agreement is seen as a central axis for economic growth and security for both nations [11]. Group 3: International Imbalances - China is identified as the primary cause of international economic imbalances, with many of its products sold below production costs due to significant government support [12]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expresses concerns about China's increasing production capacity, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic [14]. - The U.S. aims to address the issue of international imbalances, which may take years to resolve, depending on each country's situation [7]. Group 4: Currency and Monetary Policy - The concept of a "strong dollar" is defined not by nominal exchange rates but by maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency through sound economic policies [17]. - The OBBB Act aims to attract foreign capital and make the U.S. the most attractive place for investment, which includes both securities and direct investments in manufacturing [18]. - The next Federal Reserve Chair must be capable of gaining market trust and analyzing complex economic data, with a focus on maintaining the independence of monetary policy [19].

Group 1 - The core narrative revolves around the tension between political statements from Trump and the ambiguous signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding the strength of the US dollar and interest rate policies [1][2] - Trump's declaration of a "strong dollar" serves to protect his legacy and assert the White House's influence over market perceptions, while Powell's dovish hints suggest a potential shift towards easing monetary policy [2][3] - The recent CPI data indicating a significant drop in inflation has provided Powell with the confidence to signal a more flexible approach to interest rates, which has altered the dynamics of the power struggle [2][3] Group 2 - Market reactions have been pronounced, with the dollar index experiencing a sharp decline, gold prices reaching new historical highs, and US stock indices rising collectively due to expectations of interest rate cuts [3][4] - Non-US currencies have also benefited from the dollar's retreat, indicating a broader market shift as investors reposition themselves in response to the changing monetary landscape [3][5] - The upcoming period of anticipated interest rate cuts is characterized as a historically volatile yet potentially lucrative phase for investors [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's mixed signals regarding dollar policy highlight a tension between advocating for a strong dollar while acknowledging the benefits of a weaker dollar for U.S. manufacturing [1] Group 1: Dollar Policy - Trump emphasizes that he "will never support a weak dollar" while simultaneously discussing the economic advantages of a low exchange rate for U.S. manufacturing [1] - The comments come amid speculation in the foreign exchange market that the administration may be seeking a weaker dollar [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Impact - Trump notes that manufacturing companies are benefiting from a weaker dollar, suggesting that a strong dollar can deter tourism and sales of U.S. products [1] - He argues that while a strong dollar appears favorable, it can negatively impact sales and exports, stating, "you can't sell factories, trucks, or anything" [1] Group 3: Inflation Perspective - Trump claims that a strong dollar is beneficial for controlling inflation, but he asserts that inflation is not currently a concern, stating, "we have already eliminated inflation" [1]

Market Analysis & Trends - The U_S stock market has recovered from a previous flash crash, but the dollar index has fallen to a new low since 2022 [1] - The dollar index (DXY) measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, with the Euro having the largest weighting at 575% [1] - Since early 2025, the dollar index has been declining, reaching its lowest level since 2022 [1] Factors Influencing the Dollar - Dollar's value is determined by supply and demand, with supply factors including the U_S trade deficit, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and U_S fiscal deficit [1] - Demand for dollars is influenced by international trade settlement, central bank foreign exchange reserves, and investment in dollar assets [1] - Short-term dollar trends are primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U_S government's fiscal deficit [1] Recent Dollar Depreciation - The dollar's strength in 2024 was driven by Trump's policies, but it weakened in early 2025 due to concerns about trade protectionism and fiscal policies [2] - Market concerns about U_S governance and institutional issues are eroding foreign investors' confidence in dollar assets [2] - Some countries are reducing their reliance on the dollar [2] Future Dollar Trends - The report suggests that a complete collapse of dollar hegemony is unlikely in the foreseeable future [2] - Short-term dollar trends will be heavily influenced by Trump's policies, with potential for continued downward pressure due to trade and fiscal uncertainties [2] - The U_S economy remains strong, with positive economic data and a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [3] Investment Strategy - The author believes that the dollar's depreciation pressure may be nearing its end, with potential for appreciation due to economic fundamentals and policy factors [3] - The author suggests that long-term investors should focus on the U_S's economic fundamentals and technological advancements rather than short-term policy risks [3] - The author maintains a long-term positive outlook on U_S equities and dollar assets, particularly for investors in developing countries [3]

Group 1 - The recent downgrade of the US government bond rating by Moody's has shaken trust in what was once considered a safe asset [2] - The passage of significant legislation, including the extension of Trump's tax cuts, is projected to increase US government debt by $3.1 trillion over the next decade [1] - The Federal Reserve Board member Waller expressed concerns about the unsustainable nature of the US fiscal deficit, indicating that the market will seek higher interest rates on US bonds until government spending is controlled [1][2] Group 2 - The US bond market is facing instability due to multiple factors, including the downgrade of the bond rating, reduced purchases by China, and weak demand for 20-year bonds [2] - The Trump administration's push for a weaker dollar to boost manufacturing may conflict with the need for a strong dollar to attract foreign investment [2][3] - The US Treasury Secretary emphasized that exchange rates should be determined by the market, indicating a preference for currency stability over inducing a weaker dollar [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent believes that the recent market fluctuations do not necessarily indicate a loss of confidence among investors in the U.S. economy and markets [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Sentiment - Bessent emphasizes that short-term market movements over a two-week or one-month period may be statistical noise rather than a reflection of true investor sentiment [1] - He suggests that the focus should be on long-term investment strategies rather than reacting to temporary market conditions [1] Economic Foundation - The U.S. government is laying the groundwork for a strong dollar, robust economy, and a strong stock market [1] - Bessent reassures investors that the U.S. bond market remains the safest and most stable in the world [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stock market showed signs of recovery with major indices rising, but concerns over trade negotiations and economic outlook remain [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 1.07%, S&P 500 rose by 1.67%, and Nasdaq gained 2.50% [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized no immediate plans to lower tariffs on trade partners and maintained a strong dollar policy [1] Group 2 - International gold prices fell significantly, with June futures closing at $3294.1 per ounce, down 3.66% [2] - The decline in gold prices was attributed to reduced risk aversion and profit-taking by investors [2] Group 3 - U.S. tech and chip stocks rebounded, with Tesla's stock rising 5.37% following announcements of increased production of affordable models [3] - Intel announced a 20% workforce reduction, leading to a 5.54% increase in its stock price [3] - Apple and Meta faced fines from the EU for violations of the Digital Markets Act, with penalties of €500 million and €200 million respectively [3] Group 4 - European stock indices all closed higher, supported by positive earnings reports from major tech companies and expectations of interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank [4] - The UK stock market rose by 0.90%, France by 2.13%, and Germany by 3.14% [4] Group 5 - International oil prices declined due to reports of some major oil-producing countries pushing for increased production despite Saudi Arabia's calls for stability [5] - Light crude oil futures closed at $62.27 per barrel, down 2.20%, while Brent crude futures settled at $66.12 per barrel, down 1.96% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in China is characterized by a cyclical downturn coupled with structural issues, necessitating measures to avoid the multiplier effect of a declining real estate market and to improve the economic structure [2][28]. Economic Growth and Policy Expectations - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5% [4][92]. - The policy multiplier effect in 2025 is anticipated to be better than in 2024, with expectations for new initiatives in fiscal reform, budget investment, monetary policy, high-quality development, and technological innovation during the upcoming Two Sessions [3][90]. Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2025, a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 1 percentage point and interest rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points are expected, likely implemented in 2-3 phases [5][78]. - The downward trend in interest rates is projected to positively impact the stability of the real estate and stock markets, contributing to a prosperous capital market in 2025 [5][80]. Structural Issues and Consumption - The global economy faces severe structural problems, including geopolitical conflicts and economic disparities, which also affect China's economic landscape [26][24]. - There is a need to enhance consumption and expand domestic demand, particularly as the wealth effect from real estate diminishes [29][30]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate sector is undergoing a mean reversion process, with a prolonged adjustment period expected due to previous overvaluation [52][54]. - The contribution of real estate to GDP was significant, accounting for 25% during its peak, and its decline will have widespread negative impacts on various industries [32][34]. Investment and Consumption Trends - Investment returns are declining, leading to a contraction in expansion plans among households and private enterprises [30][46]. - Consumption is identified as a slow variable, contrasting with investment as a fast variable, indicating a need for structural improvements to stimulate long-term demand [41][44]. Fiscal Policy Recommendations - There is a call for increased fiscal stimulus, particularly in consumer spending, with suggestions to raise the fiscal deficit level and leverage central government finances [66][67]. - The current central government leverage is relatively low compared to other countries, indicating room for fiscal expansion [70][71]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to thrive in 2025, supported by robust policy measures and a stable GDP growth environment [93][88]. - The focus on income distribution reform could significantly enhance consumption, with potential contributions estimated at around 200 billion annually if middle and low-income groups see an increase in their income share [84][85].