Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strengthening US dollar and changing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of November 24, gold is trading at $4,065.63 per ounce, down $9.33 or 0.23%, continuing a slight downward trend from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index's upward movement is a key factor suppressing gold prices in the short term, with the USD/CNY exchange rate fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11 [2]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a cooling expectation for the Fed's easing policies, which diminishes gold's support as an inflation hedge [2]. Group 2: Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - In the context of a global sell-off of risk assets, gold's safe-haven characteristics have not been fully realized, as evidenced by significant declines in other assets like Bitcoin and crude oil [2]. - During the market adjustment triggered by the US stock market's drop on November 21, gold prices fell by 0.4%, reflecting a shift in safe-haven demand towards dollar-denominated assets [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On a four-hour chart, gold prices have found support near the annual average line, indicating a potential stabilization as buying pressure emerges at critical levels [3]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, suggesting a possible slowdown in the downward trend and a chance for price recovery in the short term [3]. - On an hourly chart, gold has faced resistance at the upper channel line of $4,087, with recent trading occurring in a narrow range between $4,030 and $4,070, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have declined due to a strong US dollar and mixed employment data, leading to cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 16:14 Beijing time, LME three-month copper fell by 0.66% to $10,667 per ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.65% [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract closed down 0.83% at 85,660 yuan per ton, with a weekly drop of 1.43% [1] - LME three-month aluminum decreased by 0.94% to $2,787.50 per ton, zinc fell by 1.33% to $2,976 per ton, lead dropped by 1.07% to $1,989 per ton, tin decreased by 0.79% to $36,775 per ton, and nickel fell by 0.94% to $14,365 per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The mixed September employment data, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth but a rise in the unemployment rate to a near four-year high, is significant for the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] - The September employment data is the last official employment report before the December interest rate decision [1] - Many Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish stance, contributing to the strength of the US dollar, which pressures dollar-denominated commodities [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are attempting to close below $3950, with a potential drop towards the support level of $3890-$3900 if this level is breached [1][4] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the strengthening US dollar and reduced bets on a dovish Federal Reserve, negatively impacting the gold market [4] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices have fallen below $48.00, with traders focusing on the support level of $47.00-$47.20 [1][7] - A successful test of the $47.00-$47.20 support level could lead to a move towards the 50-day moving average at $45.80 [7] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum is also experiencing a decline, currently testing the support level of $1520-$1530 [1][9] - If platinum successfully closes below this support level, it may move towards the next support level of $1400-$1410 [9]

Core Points - Stephen Milan has been confirmed as a Federal Reserve Board member, completing the remaining four months of a term that ends in January [1][2] - Milan's confirmation marks the first time in over 90 years that a sitting government official will participate in Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [2] - Milan has expressed criticism of a strong dollar, stating it is overvalued and hampers fair trade for the U.S. [2] Group 1: Appointment and Role - The U.S. Senate confirmed Milan's nomination with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, with bipartisan support except for one Republican senator who voted against [1][2] - Milan will have voting rights on all Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, bank regulatory policies, and significant enforcement actions [2] - He is expected to participate in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting September 16 [2] Group 2: Political Implications - Milan's dual role as a White House economic advisor and Federal Reserve board member raises concerns about political influence on monetary policy [3] - Democratic senators have expressed worries about Milan's ability to act independently if his voting decisions conflict with the White House [3] - Republican senators, however, believe that Milan will maintain his independence during his short-term appointment [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Milan plans to resign from his White House position if he receives a long-term appointment to the Federal Reserve [4] - His short-term role is viewed as manageable by some Republican senators, who do not foresee significant issues with his independence during this period [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset suggests that the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed on imports may eventually decrease, contingent upon correcting trade imbalances and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Tariffs and Trade Balance - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since World War II, as a result of recent tariff measures [1] - Basset emphasizes that the primary goal of the Trump administration's tariffs is to "rebalance" the U.S. current account deficit, which is projected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The U.S. has lost a significant number of manufacturing jobs over the past 40 to 50 years, and Basset believes that reducing imports will help restore trade balance [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Basset anticipates that most trade negotiations will be completed by the end of October, with negotiations with China being the most critical but challenging [4] - The U.S. has recently reached a trade agreement with Japan, termed the "golden industrial partnership," which includes a commitment from Japan for $550 billion in investments and loans [5] - The agreement with Japan involves reducing tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, although this reduction has not yet been implemented [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Economic Policy - Basset highlights the need to improve the U.S. investment environment to attract foreign direct investment, as the country has experienced trade deficits leading to capital returning primarily in financial forms [7] - The administration's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs faces skepticism from economists, who argue that the necessary labor force and capital are lacking [7][8] - The high costs associated with relocating production to the U.S. present significant challenges, as investors require stable labor supply, local supply chains, and clear tariff policy timelines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, emphasizes that China is both the largest economic and military competitor to the U.S., differing fundamentally in economic policies aimed at job creation compared to Western and Asian democratic nations [2][12][13]. Group 1: Economic Policies - The Trump administration's economic policies are built on three pillars: tax reform, trade, and deregulation, with the "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBB) being passed at record speed [4]. - The trade policy shift towards tariffs aims to rebalance international payments, as the U.S. has lost many manufacturing jobs and production bases to overseas locations [5][12]. - The U.S. is a proponent of free trade, and the goal of changing trade policies is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and promote fair trade [5][12]. Group 2: Trade Relations - If progress is made in reducing trade deficits, there is a possibility of reducing or eliminating reciprocal tariffs over time [6]. - The U.S. and Japan have agreed to reduce Japanese auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, with implementation expected to take around 50 days [8][9]. - Economic security is viewed as synonymous with national security, and the U.S.-Japan trade and investment agreement is seen as a central axis for economic growth and security for both nations [11]. Group 3: International Imbalances - China is identified as the primary cause of international economic imbalances, with many of its products sold below production costs due to significant government support [12]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expresses concerns about China's increasing production capacity, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic [14]. - The U.S. aims to address the issue of international imbalances, which may take years to resolve, depending on each country's situation [7]. Group 4: Currency and Monetary Policy - The concept of a "strong dollar" is defined not by nominal exchange rates but by maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency through sound economic policies [17]. - The OBBB Act aims to attract foreign capital and make the U.S. the most attractive place for investment, which includes both securities and direct investments in manufacturing [18]. - The next Federal Reserve Chair must be capable of gaining market trust and analyzing complex economic data, with a focus on maintaining the independence of monetary policy [19].

Group 1 - The core narrative revolves around the tension between political statements from Trump and the ambiguous signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding the strength of the US dollar and interest rate policies [1][2] - Trump's declaration of a "strong dollar" serves to protect his legacy and assert the White House's influence over market perceptions, while Powell's dovish hints suggest a potential shift towards easing monetary policy [2][3] - The recent CPI data indicating a significant drop in inflation has provided Powell with the confidence to signal a more flexible approach to interest rates, which has altered the dynamics of the power struggle [2][3] Group 2 - Market reactions have been pronounced, with the dollar index experiencing a sharp decline, gold prices reaching new historical highs, and US stock indices rising collectively due to expectations of interest rate cuts [3][4] - Non-US currencies have also benefited from the dollar's retreat, indicating a broader market shift as investors reposition themselves in response to the changing monetary landscape [3][5] - The upcoming period of anticipated interest rate cuts is characterized as a historically volatile yet potentially lucrative phase for investors [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's mixed signals regarding dollar policy highlight a tension between advocating for a strong dollar while acknowledging the benefits of a weaker dollar for U.S. manufacturing [1] Group 1: Dollar Policy - Trump emphasizes that he "will never support a weak dollar" while simultaneously discussing the economic advantages of a low exchange rate for U.S. manufacturing [1] - The comments come amid speculation in the foreign exchange market that the administration may be seeking a weaker dollar [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Impact - Trump notes that manufacturing companies are benefiting from a weaker dollar, suggesting that a strong dollar can deter tourism and sales of U.S. products [1] - He argues that while a strong dollar appears favorable, it can negatively impact sales and exports, stating, "you can't sell factories, trucks, or anything" [1] Group 3: Inflation Perspective - Trump claims that a strong dollar is beneficial for controlling inflation, but he asserts that inflation is not currently a concern, stating, "we have already eliminated inflation" [1]

Market Analysis & Trends - The U_S stock market has recovered from a previous flash crash, but the dollar index has fallen to a new low since 2022 [1] - The dollar index (DXY) measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, with the Euro having the largest weighting at 575% [1] - Since early 2025, the dollar index has been declining, reaching its lowest level since 2022 [1] Factors Influencing the Dollar - Dollar's value is determined by supply and demand, with supply factors including the U_S trade deficit, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and U_S fiscal deficit [1] - Demand for dollars is influenced by international trade settlement, central bank foreign exchange reserves, and investment in dollar assets [1] - Short-term dollar trends are primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U_S government's fiscal deficit [1] Recent Dollar Depreciation - The dollar's strength in 2024 was driven by Trump's policies, but it weakened in early 2025 due to concerns about trade protectionism and fiscal policies [2] - Market concerns about U_S governance and institutional issues are eroding foreign investors' confidence in dollar assets [2] - Some countries are reducing their reliance on the dollar [2] Future Dollar Trends - The report suggests that a complete collapse of dollar hegemony is unlikely in the foreseeable future [2] - Short-term dollar trends will be heavily influenced by Trump's policies, with potential for continued downward pressure due to trade and fiscal uncertainties [2] - The U_S economy remains strong, with positive economic data and a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [3] Investment Strategy - The author believes that the dollar's depreciation pressure may be nearing its end, with potential for appreciation due to economic fundamentals and policy factors [3] - The author suggests that long-term investors should focus on the U_S's economic fundamentals and technological advancements rather than short-term policy risks [3] - The author maintains a long-term positive outlook on U_S equities and dollar assets, particularly for investors in developing countries [3]

Group 1 - The recent downgrade of the US government bond rating by Moody's has shaken trust in what was once considered a safe asset [2] - The passage of significant legislation, including the extension of Trump's tax cuts, is projected to increase US government debt by $3.1 trillion over the next decade [1] - The Federal Reserve Board member Waller expressed concerns about the unsustainable nature of the US fiscal deficit, indicating that the market will seek higher interest rates on US bonds until government spending is controlled [1][2] Group 2 - The US bond market is facing instability due to multiple factors, including the downgrade of the bond rating, reduced purchases by China, and weak demand for 20-year bonds [2] - The Trump administration's push for a weaker dollar to boost manufacturing may conflict with the need for a strong dollar to attract foreign investment [2][3] - The US Treasury Secretary emphasized that exchange rates should be determined by the market, indicating a preference for currency stability over inducing a weaker dollar [3]