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行业官员:美国50%铜进口关税对印度企业没有任何影响
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 06:52
Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025, which will not impact Indian companies due to India's copper supply shortage [2][4] - India is a copper resource-poor country, with copper exports to the U.S. being only about 10,000 tons, according to the International Copper Association [3] - India's strong demand for copper is driven by initiatives in renewable energy and electric vehicles, mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2 - A planning document predicts that copper demand will grow sixfold by 2047, with a plan to add 5 million tons of smelting and refining capacity annually by 2030 [5] - India remains a net importer of copper products, necessitating strategic measures across the entire value chain to meet growing demand [6] - In 2023, India imported 1 million tons of copper concentrate, primarily from a few countries [7] Group 3 - Indonesia is the largest exporter of copper ore and concentrate to India, accounting for approximately 27% of imports, followed by Chile (25%) and Peru (14%) [8] - Together, these four countries (Indonesia, Chile, Peru, and Panama) account for about 75% of India's copper concentrate imports [9]
纽约铜溢价引爆抢运潮!交易商为争朝夕准备“曲线救国”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-10 03:57
在特朗普宣布消息后,纽约铜期货价格飙升,对国际基准价格的溢价一度达到约25%。那些能够在新关 税实施前将铜运抵美国的交易商,将能够获得更大的利润。 但这也意味着,交易商面临与时间赛跑的局面,如果运输途中关税就已经生效,他们将蒙受巨大亏损。 AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普计划对铜征收50%的关税,可能会让已经持续几个月的高利润套利交易陷入困境。 特朗普最新的铜关税标志着铜市场剧烈变化的高潮。美国价格的飙升将促使整个行业竞相将金属运入美 国;美国国内库存将会激增,而全球其他地区则面临越来越严重的供应紧张。 一些急于获得最后一批金属的交易商愿意支付高额溢价,在伦敦金属交易所的价格基础上,提供接近每 吨400美元的溢价,试图吸引原本运往中国的货物转向美国。这些交易商表示,出于商业敏感信息,他 们要求不公开身份。 买家特别愿意为那些符合交割要求的品牌支付更多。因为,这意味着,如果他们无法为铜找到其他买 家,至少可以在交易所上将其转售,作为最后的手段。 据了解市场情况的人士称,近期货物的运输量已开始减少,因为一些交易商开始为关税做准备。但他们 表示,仍有大量铜产品正在运往美国港口 ...
美国铜关税将引发最后一轮抢运潮
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 02:26
Group 1 - The U.S. is expected to accelerate copper imports ahead of the implementation of a new 50% tariff on all copper imports, as announced by President Trump [1] - The new tariff is anticipated to take effect around July 31 or August 1, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary [1] - Traders are moving copper from global warehouses to the U.S. to capitalize on the current price premium of approximately $2,600 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that U.S. copper imports will decline in the months following the tariff implementation as users deplete their inventories [2] - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices outside the U.S. will drop to $8,800 per ton in the next three months, although any decline may be limited by ongoing global supply constraints [2] - A mining intelligence analyst suggests that while copper prices are under pressure, they may rebound after the tariff is finalized due to tight fundamentals in the short term [2]
智利总统:我们正在等待美国关于铜关税的官方沟通,以及是否包括阴极铜。
news flash· 2025-07-09 13:58
Core Viewpoint - The Chilean President is awaiting official communication from the United States regarding copper tariffs and whether they will include cathode copper [1] Group 1 - The Chilean government is closely monitoring the situation concerning U.S. copper tariffs, indicating potential implications for the copper industry [1] - The outcome of the U.S. decision on tariffs could significantly impact Chile's copper exports, which are vital to its economy [1]
铜关税超预期,市场急速反映
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 13:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - US to impose tariffs of 25% - 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, 2025, and Trump plans to add a 50% tariff on imported copper, higher than market expectations, with no implementation time announced, leading to a sharp rise in US copper prices and a fall in prices in other regions [2][48]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, increasing market hesitation about the Fed's interest rate cut [2][48]. - Domestically, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission focused on market construction and economic development, emphasizing regulation of corporate competition and improvement of product quality [2][48]. - As of July 4, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was -$43.31 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was -4.31 cents per pound. Copper supply tightness may ease, and if tariffs are implemented, the US copper import channel may close, increasing available goods [2][48]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - peak, with reduced orders and copper usage in copper rods and cables [2][48]. - Overall, with the copper tariff settled, previous large - scale copper shipments to the US pushed US copper inventories to a high and those in other regions to a low. If the arbitrage channel closes, export demand will drop sharply. However, due to the uncertain implementation time of the tariff, caution is advised when shorting [2][48]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Fundamental Information - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8. The new orders index dropped, while output entered the expansion range [4]. - Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, mainly driven by state and local government employment growth [4]. 3.2 Recent Latest Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Shengda Resources' Honglin Mining Caiyuanzi Copper - Gold Mine is expected to start trial production from July to September 2025 [6]. - Dowstone Technologies plans to invest up to $165 million in a 30 - kiloton cathode copper wet - smelting plant project in Congo (Kinshasa) [7][8]. 3.3 LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Price Analysis - This week, the center of copper prices moved down. As of July 8, the weekly high of Shanghai copper was 80,990 yuan/ton, the low was 79,120 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.32% and a decline of 1.26%. For LME copper, the weekly high was $10,020.5/ton, the low was $9,569.5/ton, with an amplitude of 4.54% and a decline of 2.80% [9]. - As of July 9, the spot premium in East China was 50 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 35 yuan/ton. The LME official price was $9,845/ton, and the spot premium was $80/ton. With the copper tariff settled, export demand declined, and the spot premium weakened [16]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Information - As of July 4, 2025, the domestic refined copper concentrate inventory at 7 major ports decreased by 47,000 tons to 440,000 tons. The smelting processing fee is expected to stabilize, but it is still negative [19]. - In May 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.935 million tons. From January to May, imports were 12.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [19][41]. - As of July 9, COMEX copper inventory decreased by 113,902 short tons to 221,800 short tons, a decline of 53.69%. LME copper inventory was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.88% [25]. - As of July 7, the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong was 70,800 tons. As of July 8, SHFE copper inventory was 21,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,761 tons or 14.99%. With the impact of copper tariffs, inventory is expected to accumulate [29]. 3.5 Refined Copper Monthly Import and Export Summary - As of July 4, the average import loss of refined copper was - 770.56 yuan/ton, a significant reduction from the previous period [41]. - In May 2025, China exported 114,171 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 23.6%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 594,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% [41]. - In May 2025, China's unwrought copper and copper products imports were 427,000 tons. From January to May, imports were 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [41]. 3.6 Downstream Terminal Demand - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - peak [42]. - In June, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, slightly higher than expected but still below the boom - bust line [42]. - The copper rod industry has entered the off - season, with reduced production and sales orders. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [45]. - The copper foil market has little change, with a supply - surplus situation and limited procurement enthusiasm [45]. - The copper tube market had poor transactions due to high prices. At the end of June, enterprises entered the production - reduction stage [45].
特朗普威胁50%铜关税,套利窗口急剧扩张,下半年铜价如何演绎?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-09 12:30
据央视新闻,特朗普周二高调宣布,考虑对铜进口征收高达50%的关税。这一幅度远超此前市场普遍预期的25%,在几小时内迅速引爆了全球铜 市:纽约COMEX铜价盘中一度暴涨17%,创下历史新高;伦敦LME铜价却小幅下跌,套利价差飙升至近3000美元/吨。 这场"定价裂谷"正迅速打破铜市场原有的全球平衡。 据追风交易台,高盛、摩根大通最新研报认为,短期套利窗口仍将继续扩大。摩根大通预计,两者之间的套利价差将由目前的25%进一步扩大至 50%,甚至可能出现短期"超调"。 高盛认为,当前市场对12月合约套利价差的隐含关税定价约为30%,反映出市场正在以60%左右的概率计入"50%关税将全面落地"的情形。 摩根士丹利指出,由于COMEX铜价反映的是"完税后"的内销价格,而美国是全球最大铜净进口国,关税落地将直接抬高本土铜价。尽管短期内大 量"抢跑进口"的库存将起到缓冲作用,但中期来看,美国将经历4-5个月的"去库存周期",铜进口将跌至谷底。 汇丰认为,随着美国在未来几个月进入"去库存周期",铜进口将骤减,海外冗余铜料将回流全球市场,尤其是亚洲市场。这一动态将缓解此前因 美方抢购导致的全球性铜紧张,LME库存将逐步回升,价格 ...
特朗普50%进口铜关税引发市场震荡:纽铜暴涨 伦铜跳水
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 06:44
市场普遍预期的进口铜关税水平原为25%,而50%的上限使得这些"豁免"的可能性变得更加关键。此外,今年大量铜流入美国也意味着,短期内该市场的供 应相对充足。Marcus Garvey表示:"50%的关税相对而言是利空的,因为它将更明显地抑制美国的边际需求,并延长库存消化期。" 当地时间7月8日,美国总统特朗普表示,将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税,但没有透露新关税生效具体时间。特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时 表示:"我认为我们将把铜的关税提高到50%"。据报道,美国商务部长卢特尼克在内阁会议结束后表示,商务部已完成对铜进口状况的调查,他预计新关 税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 特朗普政府宣布对进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税令铜市场陷入动荡。周二,纽约期铜主力合约COMEX9月期铜合约盘中涨幅一度高达17.3%,创1988年 以来纽铜最大盘中涨幅;该期铜合约收盘涨涨13.1%,报5.6855美元/磅,创收盘最高纪录。而与此同时,伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格周三开盘一度下跌 2.4%。 花旗将此称为铜市场的"分水岭时刻",认为这将封堵美国市场的大量铜进口的窗口。麦格理集团大宗商品策略主管Mar ...
美国最大铜进口国未收到新关税通知
news flash· 2025-07-09 03:50
据央视网,特朗普称将对进口铜征收50%关税,但没有透露新关税生效具体时间。据路透社8日消息, 智利外交部表示,尚未收到任何关于实施美国铜关税的正式官方通知。智利是全球最大铜出产国,也是 美国最大的铜进口国。 ...
恒生指数开盘跌0.36%,恒生科技指数跌0.48%;上市首日,大众口腔涨20%。中国大治有色金属涨超13%,特朗普表示铜关税将达到50%。
news flash· 2025-07-09 01:24
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.36%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.48% [1] - On its first trading day, Dazhong Oral Health surged by 20% [1] - Chinese Dazhi Nonferrous Metals rose over 13% following Trump's announcement that copper tariffs will reach 50% [1]
花旗:在0-3个月内,(铜关税)应会促使除美国外的铜价回撤,回落至8800美元/吨。
news flash· 2025-07-08 23:59
花旗:在0-3个月内,(铜关税)应会促使除美国外的铜价回撤,回落至8800美元/吨。 ...