智利国家铜业公司董事长：在官方宣布之前，我们无法对特朗普提出的铜关税建议发表意见。 ...

Group 1 - The chairman of Codelco emphasizes the need to understand if certain countries will be exempt from copper tariffs and which copper products will be affected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a leading technology company, highlighting significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives aimed at expanding market share and enhancing product offerings [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 25% year-over-year, reaching $50 billion in the last quarter [1] - Net income rose to $10 billion, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) improved to $5, up from $3.85, indicating strong profitability [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing $2 billion in research and development to innovate new products and services [1] - A new partnership with a leading cloud service provider aims to enhance the company's cloud offerings and drive further growth [1] - The expansion into emerging markets is a key focus, with plans to increase market presence in Asia and Africa [1] Market Trends - The technology sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an overall market increase of 15% in the last year [1] - Consumer demand for advanced technology solutions is driving the company's strategic direction [1] - Competitors are also ramping up investments, indicating a highly competitive landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of copper on the New York market surged, with an intraday increase of 16.00%, currently reported at $5.8305 per pound, following Trump's expectation that copper tariffs could reach 50% [1] Group 1 - Copper prices experienced a significant rise, indicating strong market reactions to tariff expectations [1] - The anticipated tariff increase to 50% on copper could have substantial implications for the industry, affecting supply chains and pricing strategies [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $9,140 per ton, anticipating a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [2][4][23] - The ongoing Section 232 copper investigation in the U.S. has led to significant discrepancies between COMEX and LME copper prices, resulting in the U.S. over-importing approximately 400,000 tons of copper this year [2][5][18] - Despite a global copper surplus, concerns about regional shortages outside the U.S. have intensified, tightening the LME copper curve and leading to a significant spot premium [2][5][9] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects U.S. copper inventories to increase by 150,000 tons in Q3, followed by a decrease of 120,000 tons in Q4 after the implementation of tariffs [18][23] - The firm predicts a slight global copper surplus of 105,000 tons by the end of 2025, with a deficit of 100,000 tons in China and 200,000 tons in other regions [13][18] - The anticipated 25% tariff on copper imports by September is expected to further influence market dynamics, potentially leading to a significant increase in the COMEX-LME price spread [3][36] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its recommendation to go long on the December 2025 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage, citing that the current market is underestimating the risks of tariffs [3][36] - The firm has adjusted its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $10,000 per ton, down from $10,170 per ton, while still expecting a slight deficit in the market [30][34] - Concerns regarding solar demand growth have led to a downward revision of global solar demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027, impacting overall copper demand projections [31][33]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 20, 2025 - Report Title: [Guantong Research] Multiple Factors Intertwined, the Disk Tests the Resistance Level - Analyst: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, supply shortages, and weakening demand [1]. Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in the afternoon. Trump will decide whether to attack Iran in two weeks, and although the conflict has eased, oil prices have risen, increasing inflation expectations. Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates for two consecutive days, and the market still expects two rate cuts this year. The Fed's rate cuts will affect the US dollar index and guide the price trend of the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased significantly this week, and copper imports have also declined. The cost of smelters has increased, intensifying the market's tight supply expectations. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate has slowed down, the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased, and the trading volume has weakened. The terminal wire and cable industry remains resilient, but the production schedule of the home appliance industry has shrunk, and the real estate industry has also dragged down the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved higher, closing slightly lower at 77,990. The number of long positions of the top 20 futures companies decreased by 3,684 to 119,268 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 3,770 to 106,544 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and in South China is 90 yuan/ton. On June 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,609 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 103 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.91 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.40 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 33,900 tons, a decrease of 10,934 tons from the previous period. As of June 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 60,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, a slight decrease of 4,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].

智通财经APP获悉，近日，摩根士丹利发布研究观点称，铜面临着相互背离的市场力量。伦敦金属交易 所(LME)库存正迅速减少，因为铜被拉往美国，推动了期货价差和价格上涨，但中国市场信号却在减 弱，现货溢价下跌，国内冶炼厂寻求出口铜，表明下行风险即将到来。摩根士丹利认为，澳大利亚铜关 税的宣布可能会阻止美国的提前采购，并成为LME铜的负面催化剂。 美国以外市场紧张，伦敦金属交易所面临挤压风险 在潜在进口关税之前，提前采购将铜拉往美国的情况仍在继续，铝关税提高后，COMEX-LME价差上 升，刺激了市场对铜关税即将到来的预期，这正在收紧美国以外的市场。伦敦金属交易所的在途铜库存 年初至今已减少20万吨，现货-3个月价差处于2018年以来的最高水平。未来几个月库存可能继续下降， 如果伦敦金属交易所库存达到临界水平，铜价面临越来越大的上涨挤压风险。 但中国出现一些疲软迹象。中国表观需求指标看起来更加喜忧参半，洋山溢价(进口需求的指标)暴跌(图 表5)。 继续认为铜市场目前紧张，但风险正在积聚。如果伦敦金属交易所库存继续减少，价格可能会保持支 撑，如果库存达到临界水平，存在挤压风险。然而，在其看来，美国任何铜关税的宣布(例 ...