Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning GDP forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, predicting a contraction of 2.825% for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth for the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic [1][5]. Economic Forecast - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has significantly downgraded its forecast for Q1 2025, from a previous estimate of a 2.33% growth to a contraction of 2.825% [6]. - This prediction is the worst since the second quarter of 2020, when GDP shrank by 7.5% [6]. - The model's downgrade is attributed to an increase in the U.S. trade deficit, which reached a record -$153 billion in January, exceeding market expectations of -$116 billion [7]. Market Reaction - U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.96%, Nasdaq down 1.19%, and S&P 500 down 1.01% [2]. - European markets also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX index falling nearly 3%, France's CAC40 down nearly 2%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down nearly 1% [3]. Data Analysis - The GDPNow model's latest forecast reflects a significant shift in economic outlook, with personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and private fixed investment growth predictions dropping to 0.0% and 0.1%, respectively [7]. - The ISM manufacturing index also showed a decline from 50.9 to 50.3, contributing to the negative GDP forecast [7]. Government Response - U.S. government officials are reportedly anxious about the economic implications of a potential contraction, particularly concerning the reputation of the current administration [9]. - The Secretary of Commerce suggested a reevaluation of the indicators used to determine economic recession, indicating a potential change in how government spending is accounted for in GDP reports [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. increasing tariffs on China to 20%, particularly focusing on the economic implications and China's response strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - A 20% tariff could reduce China's nominal GDP by approximately 0.69 percentage points, translating to a potential real GDP growth reduction of about 0.49 percentage points, assuming no other variables change [1][5]. - The estimated impact on total export growth could range from -2.61% to -4.70%, depending on the elasticity of export prices [2]. - Key industries such as chemicals, textiles, and machinery, which have a higher export share to the U.S. (10-15%), are expected to face significant challenges due to the tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: China's Response Strategies - China has adopted a principle of rapid response and precise countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs on U.S. coal and fuel [3][4]. - Measures include anti-monopoly investigations targeting major U.S. tech companies and export controls on critical minerals needed for U.S. military and high-tech manufacturing [3][4]. Group 3: Future Macro Policy Considerations - The Chinese government is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding macroeconomic policies, with no immediate need for intervention as the economy shows signs of stabilization [5]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, it is estimated that fiscal measures would need to be between 0.62 trillion to 1.33 trillion yuan to offset the economic impact, with a median estimate of 0.98 trillion yuan being a suitable scale for counteraction [5].

2024 年全国 GDP 达到 134.91 万亿元，约 18.94 万亿美元。而美国 2024 年 GDP 为 29.2 万亿美 元，我国 GDP 总量已经达到美国近 65% 。 31 个省份中，广东依然以 14.16 万亿元 GDP 总量排在全国首位，江苏以 13.70 万亿元排在第二。 广东和江苏也是全国 31 个省份中唯二 GDP 总量超过 10 万亿元的省份。 山东以 9.86 万亿元 GDP 总量排在全国第三，浙江以 9.01 万亿元排在全国第四。 另有四川（ 6.47 万亿）、河南（ 6.36 万亿）和湖北（ 6.00 万亿）三省 GDP 总量超过 6 万亿元； 福建（ 5.78 万亿）、上海（ 5.39 万亿）、湖南（ 5.32 万亿）和安徽（ 5.06 万亿）四省 GDP 总量超过 5 万亿元。 全国 31 个省份中排名前十的省份 2024 年 GDP 总量均超过 5 万亿元。 四个直辖市中上海 GDP 总量超过 5 万亿元，北京为 4.98 万亿元，重庆为 3.22 万亿元，天津为 1.80 万亿元。 海南（ 0.79 万亿）、宁夏（ 0.55 万亿）、青海（ 0.40 万亿）和西藏（ 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Rising food prices have curbed demand, while catering and department stores have sustained growth [3][16] - Consumer confidence index fell to 35.2 in January 2025, the lowest in 16 months, indicating deepening economic concerns [2][7] - Inflation accelerated in January 2025, with CPI rising 4.0% year-on-year, driven by structural increases in food and energy prices [9][12] Macro Summary - In January 2025, the inflation rate accelerated again, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 35.2, marking a 16-month low since September 2023 [2][7] - Real wages in December 2024 increased by 0.3% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of growth, while nominal GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024 [2][12] - The January PPI rose by 4.2% year-on-year, continuing a moderate upward trend [13] Industry Summary - In the essential goods retail sector, food and beverage sales increased by 0.9% year-on-year, while drug and bath product sales rose by 4.9% [3][16] - The optional consumption sector, including dining and department stores, benefited from a surge in inbound tourism, with significant growth in same-store sales [5][16] Essential Companies Summary - In January, PPIH's same-store sales increased by 6.7%, while Aeon and 711 Japan reported increases of 2.0% and 0.9%, respectively [4][20] - The beer industry saw a high single-digit growth in traditional beer sales, driven by a record number of inbound tourists [4][23] Optional Companies Summary - Major dining companies like Sally's and Toridoll reported same-store sales growth of 17.3% and 12.5%, respectively, benefiting from the influx of tourists [5][32] - Uniqlo and ABC-MART reported same-store sales growth of 8.6% and 6.1%, respectively, driven by seasonal promotions and new product launches [5][36] Stock Market Summary - In January, most optional consumption stocks rose, while essential consumption stocks mostly fell [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, such as Asics and Fast Retailing [6]