Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that any trade agreement will support the trade balance between the United States and Malaysia [1]

欧盟谈判代表即将与特朗普达成一项贸易协议，该协议将确认欧盟面临的关税高于英国所享有的待遇。 （英国金融时报） ...

金十数据7月9日讯，据英国金融时报报道，欧盟谈判代表即将与美国总统特朗普达成一项贸易协议，该 协议将确认欧盟面临的关税高于英国所享有的待遇。据悉，布鲁塞尔方面准备签署一项临时"框架"协 议，在谈判继续进行期间，协议规定在谈判继续期间，美国总统的"对等"关税为10%，与对英国征收的 基准关税相当。但据了解情况的6名外交官表示，欧盟预计无法像英国钢铁、汽车及其他受行业关税影 响的产品那样，获得相同程度的美国市场准入。此外，特朗普还要求对欧盟农产品征收17%的关税。一 位外交官表示："英国的协议比这更好。考虑到我们谈判了这么长时间，这令人意外。" 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 英媒：欧盟即将与特朗普达成协议 但或面临高于英国的关税 ...

Group 1 - The euro/dollar exchange rate briefly strengthened before declining, currently at 1.1707 with a decrease of 0.13% [1] - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have fallen back to levels seen before the announcement of large new tariffs by the Trump administration, with the median expectation for price increases over the next year dropping from 3.2% to 3% [1] - The U.S. labor market outlook is mixed, with many consumers anticipating difficulties in finding new jobs, aligning with cautious hiring and layoffs reported by U.S. companies [1] Group 2 - Germany's exports to the U.S. significantly decreased in May due to tariff threats from President Trump, with total exports falling by 1.4% month-on-month, while imports dropped by 3.8% [2] - The trade surplus for Germany increased from €15.7 billion to €18.4 billion (approximately $21.6 billion) in May [2] - The EU is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to lock in tariff rates at 10% after the August 1 deadline, with negotiations for a permanent agreement ongoing [2] Group 3 - The euro is supported at the 1.0950 level on a monthly basis, indicating a long-term bullish outlook [3] - On a weekly basis, the euro is supported at the 1.1450 area, suggesting a continued bullish perspective despite temporary corrections [3] - Key levels to watch include 1.1700 and the previous day's low, with a focus on whether the price can break below these support levels [3]

Group 1: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with a quick announcement on semiconductor tariffs expected [2][9] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that 15 to 20 tariff letters will be sent out in the next two days, with copper tariffs set to be implemented by August 1 [9][11] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary reported that $100 billion in tariffs have been collected so far, with expectations to reach $300 billion by year-end [11] Group 2: Market Reactions and Performance - Gold prices fell by 1.05% to $3301.63 per ounce, while silver slightly decreased by 0.04% to $36.72 per ounce, influenced by rising U.S. dollar strength and bond yields [3][6] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.41% to $67.18 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.58% to $69.42 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions [3][6] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, S&P 500 slightly down 0.07%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [3][6] Group 3: International Relations and Defense - The U.S. Department of Defense announced plans to provide more defensive weapons to Ukraine, indicating ongoing military support [11] - Upcoming talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese officials aim to address trade issues, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts [11] Group 4: Regional Market Developments - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.55% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.54% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 1.09%, driven by gains in technology and healthcare sectors [4] - A-shares saw positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component up 1.47% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on Caterpillar's stock price are considered exaggerated, as the stock significantly outperformed the market in June, rising 11.5% compared to the Dow Jones and S&P 500's gains of 4.9% and 4.3% respectively [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Caterpillar's stock benefited from several positive factors, including a dividend increase, analyst upgrades, and a trade agreement between the U.S. and China [2]. - Following the announcement of a trade deal with China, Caterpillar's stock price increased, reflecting its importance in the Chinese market [4]. - Analysts have responded positively, with Citigroup raising its price target for Caterpillar from $370 to $420 per share, while Bank of America maintained a target of $385 [6]. Group 2: Financial Health and Growth Prospects - Caterpillar raised its dividend per share by 7%, marking the 31st consecutive year of dividend increases, indicating strong free cash flow generation despite a challenging environment [5]. - The company anticipates continued strength in its energy and transportation segments, which are expected to offset weaknesses in construction and resource industries [9]. - Caterpillar's backlog grew by a record $5 billion, or 17% sequentially, and the company expects to generate free cash flow in the upper half of its guidance range of $5 billion to $10 billion [10]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts from Bank of America and Bernstein highlight strong growth potential in Caterpillar's energy and transportation segment, driven by global energy demand and increased spending in oil and gas infrastructure [7]. - Despite potential revenue declines due to tariffs, Caterpillar's diverse business model is expected to mitigate significant impacts, with only a slight revenue fall projected for the year [10].

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：当前的贸易信函和贸易协议占美国贸易逆差的近90%。 ...

Group 1 - The euro has appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.1725 [1] - The US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, stated that the EU has presented a series of concrete trade agreement proposals [1] - President Trump is considering how to respond to the EU's proposals, which suggest an opening of the market to the US [1] Group 2 - Trump has left flexibility in tariff rates in his trade letters concerning Japan and South Korea [1]

金十数据7月8日讯，今天，日本贸易谈判代表与美国财政部长贝森特进行了约30分钟的通话。双方同意 继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。昨日，特朗普宣布将从8 月1日起对日本输美商品加征25%的关税。这为双方在关税正式实施前争取进一步谈判留下了一定空 间，但时间已经再次开始倒计时。 日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的贸易协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is putting pressure on the economy and investments, highlighting the need for a timely trade agreement with the United States [1] Group 1 - The postponement of tariffs until August 1 will provide the European Union with additional time to negotiate [1] - A quicker resolution of trade agreements with the United States is deemed beneficial for the EU [1]