Core Viewpoint - The pilot program for digital RMB is expanding into high-frequency scenarios, particularly in Shanghai's public transportation system, enhancing payment efficiency and convenience for users [1][2][3]. Group 1: Digital RMB Implementation - The digital RMB "tap and go" feature has been successfully implemented across the entire Shanghai metro network, allowing passengers to use various digital wallets for seamless entry [1]. - The Shanghai metro system operates over 896 kilometers with 21 lines and 517 stations, handling more than 77% of the city's public transport volume daily [2]. - The implementation involved extensive testing and collaboration among multiple stakeholders, including the Shanghai Municipal Financial Office and various banks [3]. Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Advantages - Digital RMB offers advantages in cross-border payments, such as reduced intermediary costs, low fees, and near real-time transactions, which are particularly beneficial for foreign visitors [4][7]. - The design of the digital RMB wallet ensures user privacy and simplifies the account opening process, which could enhance the internationalization of the RMB [4][7]. - The People's Bank of China has announced plans to establish a digital RMB international operation center to promote its global use [4]. Group 3: Expansion and Challenges - The digital RMB pilot has expanded to 26 regions across 17 provinces, with applications in various sectors, including retail, healthcare, and public services [7]. - Despite rapid development, challenges remain in achieving widespread adoption, including the need for a viable business model and user habit formation [8][9]. - The digital RMB's success will depend on overcoming barriers related to scene coverage, user acceptance, and the establishment of unified technical standards [9].

2025.07. 01 本文字数：2716，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 稳定币第一股Circle Internet Group（下称"Circle"，股票代码CRCL）一上市便众星捧月，但经 历了近1个月的炒作，面对畸高的估值，散户、机构炒家开始纷纷获利离场，华尔街投行也纷纷发布 中性观点报告以提示风险。 Circle在6月5日上市，短短两日内股价暴涨至138.57美元，相较发行价（31美元）的累计涨幅高达 347%。6月16日跳空高开后，公司股价再创新高，在6月23日触及298.99美元的上市以来高点， 但在随后的四个交易日屡遭重挫，累计回落幅度接近40%。截至6月30日收盘，Circle股价报 181.29美元。 高盛发布的最新研报，首次覆盖Circle便给予中性评级，目标价仅为83美元。该机构认为，尽管对 公司成长性看好，但是估值水平短期过高，目标价是基于60倍的市盈率估值（但当前Circle的静态 市盈率已高达544倍）。多位美国资管公司投资经理日前对第一财经记者表示，部分机构在Circle股 价为100美元附近获利了结，但随着股价持续飙升，更多获利了结的卖盘涌现。"木头姐"凯茜· ...

Major Events - Newland has established a subsidiary in the US and obtained an MSB license to enhance its global payment business and facilitate cross-border payment operations [3] - Zhejiang Liming's actual controllers have committed not to reduce their shareholdings within one year [4] - Tengya Precision has announced a three-month commitment from its major shareholders not to reduce their holdings [6] - *ST Yuancheng is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected false financial disclosures [7] - Anglikang has only one innovative drug project currently under development, which is in the I phase of clinical trials [8] - Yongmaotai plans to invest approximately 450 million yuan to build an intelligent manufacturing base for auto parts in Mexico [9] - Fengfan Co. intends to acquire 100% equity of eight photovoltaic power station project companies for 48 million yuan [10] - Hangzhou High-tech is changing its controlling shareholder to Jirong Weiye and will resume trading on July 2 [11][12] - Zhongke Environmental Protection is acquiring 100% equity of two environmental companies for a total of 354 million yuan [13] - Yian Technology plans to increase its investment in its subsidiary Yihang Metal by 120 million yuan [14] - *ST Aowei has reported asset losses due to mismanagement by a processing partner [15] - XWANDA intends to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16] - Baichuan Co.'s actual controller and chairman is under investigation [17] - Suzhou Planning is planning to acquire control of Dongjin Aviation Technology and will suspend trading [19] - Aerospace Changfeng plans to transfer 55.45% equity of a subsidiary through public listing [20] Performance Overview - Xinhecheng expects a net profit increase of 50%-70% for the first half of 2025, estimating between 3.3 billion to 3.75 billion yuan [21] - Shida Shenghua anticipates a net loss of 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [22] - Kids' King expects a net profit increase of 50%-100% for the first half of 2025, estimating between 120 million to 160 million yuan [23] - SAIC Group reported a total vehicle sales of 2.0526 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.35% [24] - BAIC Blue Valley's subsidiary reported a 139.73% increase in sales for the first half of 2025 [25] - Seris reported a 4.44% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle sales for June [26] - Great Wall Motors reported a 1.81% increase in total vehicle sales for the first half of 2025 [27] Major Contracts - Guoxin Technology has won a 46 million yuan project for automotive electronic chips [28] - Ankao Zhidian has signed two contracts for wind power transmission projects totaling 79.69 million yuan [29] Shareholding Changes - Wuxi Zhenhua's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% [30] - Longxun Co. shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% [31] - FJ Environmental's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [32] - Yuexiu Capital's subsidiary plans to increase its stake in Yuexiu Real Estate [33] Financing Activities - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical plans to increase its subsidiary's capital by 400 million yuan through debt-to-equity conversion [34] - Hainan Huatie plans to issue bonds not exceeding 2 billion yuan to optimize its financing structure [35]

Group 1 - The first batch of 26 new floating rate funds has been launched, with over half already announced [1] - He Yuan Biological's IPO application has passed the review, marking the first successful IPO under the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - Multiple real estate companies are accelerating debt restructuring, with over 75% of holders supporting the offshore debt restructuring agreement from Country Garden [1] Group 2 - In June, China's heavy truck wholesale sales reached approximately 92,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 29% [2] - The market for charging treasures in Huaqiangbei still includes products without 3C certification, despite increased scrutiny [2] - Guangzhou has launched its first "immediate refund" point for departure tax refunds, with a significant increase in tax refund applications and sales [3] Group 3 - Standard Chartered Bank faces a lawsuit related to the 1MDB scandal, with claims of failing to perform anti-money laundering checks on over $2.7 billion [3] - Perfect World has initiated an anti-corruption campaign, dismissing multiple individuals involved in bribery and misconduct [4] - Douyin e-commerce has clarified that there are no channels for obtaining sales permissions without followers, emphasizing adherence to established rules [4] Group 4 - Hebei Asset Management has submitted an IPO application, potentially becoming the first local asset management company to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Tailong Pharmaceutical plans to register and issue up to 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds [5] - Chang Aluminum's subsidiary has signed a contract worth 165 million yuan for a cleanroom construction project [6] Group 5 - Guomai Technology expects a net profit increase of 60.52% to 100.33% for the first half of 2025 [7] - Kidswant anticipates a net profit growth of 50% to 100% for the first half of 2025 [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, with innovation drug stocks experiencing significant gains [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" by the Laiwu branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China marks a significant advancement in cross-border payment services, enhancing convenience, timeliness, and security for residents in both regions [1] Group 1: Service Overview - The "Cross-Border Payment Pass" is a collaborative initiative between the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, aimed at facilitating quick remittance services for salary payments, tuition fees, and medical expenses [1] - Compared to traditional cross-border remittance methods, the new service allows individuals to make convenient remittances without submitting business background information, using only a mobile phone number or bank account [1] - The service supports real-time currency exchange between Renminbi and Hong Kong dollars, eliminating the need for a separate currency exchange process [1] Group 2: Customer Experience - Customers have reported a significantly improved experience, highlighting the ease of use, quick transaction times, and elimination of fees as major benefits of the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" [1] - A customer shared her positive experience, noting that the new service has made it much easier to send money for travel and shopping without the hassle of paperwork and high fees [1] Group 3: Future Implications - The successful implementation of the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" is seen as a landmark event in deepening financial openness and addressing the payment service needs of residents [1] - The Laiwu branch plans to continue enhancing payment service offerings to provide safer, more efficient, and cost-effective payment solutions for local residents [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively, indicating a narrow fluctuation in the market [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.32% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.58% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 960.62 billion yuan, an increase of about 46.33 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed a collective rebound, with stocks like China Construction Bank reaching new historical highs [1] - In contrast, stablecoin concept stocks continued to decline, with Hopu Co., Ltd. dropping over 10% [1] - The solid-state battery sector underwent adjustments, with Yinglian Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit down [1] - Sectors that performed well included shipbuilding, photolithography machines, banking, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while sectors that saw declines included diversified finance, cross-border payments, solid-state batteries, and copper cable high-speed connections [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.63-1.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.57%-17.4%. The second quarter is projected to generate 827-897 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%-22% [4][5]. - The ongoing招商 (招商 refers to the process of attracting businesses to occupy commercial spaces) at the global digital trade center is expected to significantly contribute to the company's performance, with the fashion jewelry sector already completed and other sectors like children's products and skincare currently in the招商 phase [4][6]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to apply for a TCSP license is anticipated to enhance the company's cross-border payment services, transitioning from a payment tool to a comprehensive financial service platform [5][11]. Summary by Sections Global Digital Trade Center - The global digital trade center is a key project for the company, with a total investment exceeding 8.3 billion yuan and an area of over 1.25 million square meters. The market section, which is the main engine, covers 410,000 square meters and is expected to open in October 2025 [6][10]. - The招商 for the fashion jewelry sector has attracted over 4,000 businesses, with bidding prices ranging from 110,000 to 124,000 yuan per square meter, indicating strong demand [4][6]. - The expected revenue contribution from the market section is estimated to be between 16.3 billion and 20.3 billion yuan, primarily from entry fees and merchant fees [10]. Cross-Border Payment Business - The company’s cross-border payment business, yiwupay, is projected to exceed 4 billion USD in cross-border receipts in 2024, with a net profit of approximately 61.04 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 274.67% [11][12]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to enhance trade facilitation, with innovative payment tools like stablecoins expected to provide efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions [12]. Financial Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is revised to 4.032 billion, 6.408 billion, and 7.832 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.1, 17.7, and 14.5 times [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on Circle with a neutral rating and a target price of $83, indicating a potential downside of 54% from the current stock price, citing high valuation despite strong business prospects [1][2] Valuation and Market Position - Circle, as the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, holds a unique position in the market, being the only pure crypto-native company, with a market capitalization of $40 billion and a 25% share of the stablecoin market [3] - The forward P/E ratio of approximately 145 is significantly higher than the industry average of about 35, leading Goldman Sachs to maintain a cautious outlook despite Circle's strong growth potential [2][4] Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for USDC supply from 2024 to 2027, with expected revenue and adjusted EPS growth rates of 26% and 37%, respectively [1][3] - The anticipated growth is driven by partnerships, particularly with Binance, which has already seen a $6 billion increase in USDC balances since the partnership began [3] Profitability Pressures - Goldman Sachs identifies three key factors that may pressure Circle's profitability: interest rate cuts, competition from yield-bearing products, and rising distribution costs [2][4][5] - A projected 25 basis point cut in interest rates could lead to a 5.5% revenue impact and a 10.5% impact on adjusted EPS, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the coming years [4] Market Opportunities - Circle is exploring new growth avenues beyond cryptocurrency trading, particularly in cross-border payments and fiat currency transactions, with a potential market size of $30 billion to $50 billion [2][6] - The cross-border payment sector is seen as a significant opportunity for disruption, with high transaction costs and inefficient infrastructure, although Circle's cross-border payment network is still in its early stages [6]

Core Views - The recent decline in bank stocks has led to a focus on investment opportunities in technology-themed stocks, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors showing strong performance [2][3][19] - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing short-term corrections while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite indices remain strong [2][19] - The macroeconomic environment presents challenges for banks, including reduced credit demand and pressure on net interest margins, leading to a potential short-term decline in bank stock performance [2][16] Market Overview - On the last trading day, the three major indices opened high but showed divergent trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite indices remained positive [5][6] - The overall market sentiment was mixed, with approximately 60% of stocks closing in the green, indicating that funds flowing out of the banking sector are being reinvested in more elastic technology growth areas [3][19] - The total trading volume across the two markets was 1.54 trillion yuan, suggesting a relatively strong market performance despite the index adjustments [17] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Focus on companies with better-than-expected mid-year performance as the reporting season approaches [4][17] 2. Technology sectors such as robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy (including digital currency) are recommended for low-cost entry, with caution advised against speculative investments [4][17] 3. Look for rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms during market corrections [4][17] Sector Performance - The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, has shown significant gains, driven by expectations of increased demand from the digital economy and energy transition [8][10] - Digital currency stocks have experienced volatility but remain a focus due to favorable regulatory developments in both domestic and international markets [9][11] - The new energy sector, particularly solid-state batteries, is gaining traction with advancements in technology and increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions [10][12] Financial Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen a pullback after a period of strong performance, with high dividend yields attracting conservative investors [14][16] - The brokerage sector is benefiting from policy support and market reforms, with expectations of continued growth in trading volumes and investment activities [13][14] - The military and aerospace sectors are also active, with ongoing government support and geopolitical tensions potentially driving future growth [12][14]

Core Insights - The approval of a comprehensive license for a Hong Kong-based Chinese brokerage to provide virtual asset trading services marks a significant shift in the financial landscape, igniting market enthusiasm and leading to a nearly 200% surge in the brokerage's stock price [1] - This event highlights the entry of traditional financial institutions into the cryptocurrency space and the impending regulatory benefits from Hong Kong's upcoming Stablecoin Regulation [1][12] - The license allows the brokerage to offer one-stop trading services for major cryptocurrencies, indicating a strategic move by Chinese institutions to gain a foothold in global digital finance [1] Market Dynamics - The brokerage's model involves connecting to licensed exchanges through an Omnibus Account, ensuring compliance while excluding high-risk altcoins and mainland users [2] - The issuance of this license is expected to reshape brokerage valuation logic, transitioning from traditional commission models to a focus on "financial infrastructure premium" [2] - The anticipated launch of Hong Kong's stablecoin license could position licensed institutions as key distributors of stablecoins, enhancing their role in cross-border payments and asset tokenization [2] Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins emerged to address the volatility of cryptocurrencies, with USDT maintaining a value pegged to the US dollar, typically fluctuating within ±1% [3] - There are three main types of stablecoins: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic (e.g., UST), each with distinct risk profiles and mechanisms [3] Growth and Adoption - The stablecoin market has expanded dramatically, with its total market cap surpassing $250 billion by 2025, accounting for 90% of cryptocurrency trading volume [4] - Stablecoins are increasingly used for cross-border remittances, offering significantly lower fees and faster transaction times compared to traditional banking methods [4][7] - The rise of stablecoins has also facilitated everyday consumer transactions, with major retailers beginning to accept stablecoin payments [7] Regulatory Landscape - The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin UST in 2022 prompted regulatory responses in the US and Hong Kong, leading to the introduction of the GENIUS Act and the Stablecoin Regulation, respectively [6][12] - The US aims to solidify the dollar's dominance through stablecoins, while Hong Kong's regulations support the internationalization of the renminbi by allowing stablecoins to be pegged to multiple currencies [11][12] Future Implications - Stablecoins are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing financial inclusion, providing low-cost financial services to underserved populations [15] - Predictions suggest that by 2030, stablecoins could capture 30% of the global cross-border payment market, potentially replacing traditional systems like SWIFT [15] - The competition surrounding stablecoins reflects a broader struggle for digital monetary sovereignty among nations, influencing both individual choices and national strategies [15]