Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there is no need to rush into adjusting interest rates [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions do not necessitate immediate changes to interest rates [1] - Powell emphasized a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1]

Group 1 - German and UK government bonds outperform US Treasuries amid risk-off buying following the EU's plan for reciprocal tariffs against the US [1] - The money market maintains expectations for a 23 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in June, with increased bets for an additional 2 basis points of easing [1] - Swap trades indicate a total expected rate cut of 64 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - Traders and economists anticipate the Bank of England will lower rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday [1] - Swap trades suggest a total expected rate cut of 96 basis points by the end of the year for the Bank of England [1]

【导读】捷克降息，全球等待美联储的政策决定 捷克降息25个基点 5月7日晚间，捷克决策者在通胀放缓超出预期后下调了利率，不过由于持续的价格压力和全球贸易风险，投资者现在可能面临货币宽松暂停期的延长。 捷克央行在周三的会议上将基准利率下调了0.25个百分点，至3.5%，与市场预期一致。 这是捷克央行今年第二次降息，去年快速降息之后，央行已转向"走走停停"的模式。由于服务类通胀顽固、工资上涨、房价攀升以及预算赤字扩大，一些 理事会成员表示，这可能是本轮宽松周期中的最后一次降息。 全球贸易紧张局势加剧也对依赖出口的捷克经济构成风险。央行官员指出，增长放缓可能带来通缩效应，但若出现类似疫情时期的供应链中断，也可能导 致价格再度上涨。 帕特里亚金融公司驻布拉格首席经济学家扬·布雷斯表示，美国总统特朗普有关关税的计划带来的不确定性，可能促使捷克央行在此次降息后"不会排除利 率保持稳定的可能性"。 周二公布的初步数据显示，捷克4月通胀同比放缓至1.8%，为2018年以来最低水平，且低于市场预期。然而，消费者价格增长主要受到波动性较大的食品 和燃料成本影响，而服务价格仍然处于高位。 今年以来，捷克经济信号复杂多变。通胀受食品 ...

本报记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 国务院新闻办公室5月7日就"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况举行新闻发布会，中国人民银 行宣布，将实施十大政策支持稳市场稳预期。关于降低利率，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，将通过利 率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 西北地区某银行人士告诉记者，目前来看，无论是从应对外部冲击、提振实体经济的角度，还是从债务 风险化解的角度看，下一阶段商业银行存款利率下行趋势将延续。其中，长期利率的下调压力显然更明 显。 "这是因为：其一，在利率下行预期之下，商业银行会通过利率定价对被动负债进行主动引导，缩短存 款平均到期时间，以增加重定价的机动性；其二，长期利率下调空间更大，调整长期存款利率对于压降 付息成本效果更明显。"上述西北地区某银行人士表示。 潘功胜表示，人民银行还将进一步完善货币政策框架，持续强化利率政策的执行和监督。对于一些不合 理的、容易消减货币政策传导的市场行为，加强规范，畅通货币政策的传导机制，提升资源的配置效 率。 "上述政策措施将向金融机构提供规模可观的低成本的中长期资金，有利于降低金融机构的负债成本、 稳定净息差，政策效果还将进一步传导至实体经济，带动社会综合融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has lowered the interest rates for various terms of the Standing Lending Facility by 0.1%, effective from May 8 [1] Summary by Category Interest Rate Changes - The overnight interest rate is now set at 2.25% [2] - The 7-day interest rate is now set at 2.40% [2] - The 1-month interest rate is now set at 2.75% [2]

Trade Data Summary - In March, Canada's trade deficit was 506 million CAD, a decrease from 1.4 billion CAD in February, with both imports and exports declining [1] - Total imports in March were 70.4 billion CAD, down 1.5%, while exports were 69.9 billion CAD, down 0.2% [1] - Year-over-year, March exports increased by 10.2%, with actual export volume growing by 1.8% [1] Export and Import Analysis - Exports to the U.S. fell by 6.6% due to new tariffs, but exports to other countries surged by 24.8%, partially offsetting the decline [1] - The largest decline in exports was in consumer goods, particularly meat and pharmaceuticals, while energy products also saw a decrease [1] - Notably, automotive exports grew by 7.7%, driven by increased shipments of passenger cars and light trucks [1] Economic Indicators - In the first quarter of 2025, exports reached a record high of 214 billion CAD, with imports at 212.8 billion CAD, resulting in a trade surplus of 1.2 billion CAD [1] - The Bank of Canada has implemented two interest rate cuts in early 2025, reducing the benchmark rate from 3.25% to 2.75% to stimulate economic activity [2] - The Canadian dollar showed a stable appreciation trend against the U.S. dollar in the first four months of 2025, with fluctuations between 0.64% and 0.86% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan plans to conduct its own wage increase survey to gather data from small and medium-sized enterprises not affiliated with the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) [1] Group 1: Survey Implementation - The new wage survey will be part of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey and is expected to be announced later in the current fiscal year [1] - The independent wage survey is anticipated to start as early as 2027 [1] Group 2: Data Utilization - The results from the Bank of Japan's wage survey will be used as a reference for decisions regarding interest rate adjustments [1] - Previously, the Bank of Japan relied on data published by Rengo, which collects feedback from its member unions to assess wage increases [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are showing high caution regarding monetary policy adjustments, emphasizing the need to wait for more data before taking action [1] - Since the March FOMC meeting, several officials, including Chair Powell, agree that current policy is "in a good place" and that clearer economic data is needed before deciding on interest rate adjustments [1] - Tariffs are a focal point of discussion, with officials recognizing that their actual economic impact may be greater than expected, potentially leading to persistent inflation [1] Group 2 - Fed Governor Waller indicated that in a "high tariff" scenario, he would support faster and larger rate cuts if economic slowdown threatens recession, while in a "low tariff" scenario, he would support limited monetary policy responses [2] - Some officials are concerned that tariffs could lead to higher inflation and a weaker labor market, creating a conflict between the Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability [2] - The rising uncertainty is noted to potentially impact consumer and business spending and investment decisions, with officials advocating for patience in the face of uncertainty [2]

基本面： 现货黄金报3335附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报32.50美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 13:45 瑞士4月未季调失业率(%) 16:30 英国4月SPGI服务业PMI终值 20:30 美国3月贸易帐(亿美元) 周二（5月6日）亚市盘初，现货黄金在近一周高位窄幅震荡，目前交投于3330美元/盎司附近。受美元走软和避险需求推动，金价周一上涨近3%，现货黄金 收报3333.73美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价上涨近100美元，市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。美元指数周一下跌 0.2%，使得黄金对其他货币持 有者来说价格降低；市场权衡特朗普总统关税政策的持续不确定性及其对经济的影响。美元兑亚洲货币走软，部分原因是一些投资者在传出美国将加征更多 关税的消息后，清空了大量未对冲头寸。 美元在亚洲遭到抛售，部分原因是一些人担心美国最早将于周三宣布对半导体征收关税，而且有传言称，在这些双边贸易谈判中，美国可能会让东亚货币升 值。美国总统特朗普周日宣布对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。财政部长贝森特周一为特朗普的关税 ...

巴基斯坦央行将关键利率下调至 11.00%，预期 12%，前值 12%。 ...