Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel on the global oil market, highlighting that while geopolitical risks have increased, analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would limit the sustainability of the current geopolitical risk premium on oil prices [1][5][7]. Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Following the conflict's escalation, Brent crude oil futures rose over 3%, reaching $81.40 per barrel, while WTI crude hit $78.40, marking five-month highs. Since June 13, Brent crude has increased by 13%, and WTI by approximately 10% [6]. - The CBOE crude oil volatility index has reached levels similar to those seen shortly after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium may not be sustainable if there are no substantial disruptions to oil supply [7][8]. Worst-Case Scenarios - Two worst-case scenarios are discussed: the potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and instability within the Iranian regime. If the Strait were to be blocked, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with some estimates suggesting prices could reach between $100 and $120 per barrel [2][11][12][13]. - Historical data indicates that significant military conflicts involving Israel have not led to lasting impacts on oil prices, with prices often stabilizing and declining over time [8][9]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from various financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict that if oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz is halved due to a blockade, Brent prices could spike to $110, followed by a decline [13]. - The potential for political instability in Iran could lead to significant changes in oil production policies, which may result in prolonged price increases [15][16]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while the current geopolitical tensions have led to a temporary spike in oil prices, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with analysts expecting prices to stabilize unless there are significant supply disruptions [8][12].

在任何一种最坏情境下，参考历史情况，油价都将再次突破100美元/桶。 以伊冲突升级以来，最显著的市场反应出现在原油市场。而在美国上周末介入伊朗和以色列之间的冲突后，国际 原油市场正进入一个不确定的新阶段。目前，大部分分析师仍预计，无论出于何种考虑，伊朗大概率不会选择封 锁霍尔木兹海峡，油价的地缘政治冲突溢价后续将减弱。 当然，市场人士也讨论了两种最坏情境，即伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡或伊朗政权不稳定之下，国际油价可能的走 势。在任何一种最坏情境下，参考历史情况，油价都将再次突破100美元/桶。 22日，美国总统特朗普发表全国电视讲话，称美国刚刚"彻底清除"伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施， 并称伊朗必须同意结束这场战争，若伊朗对美国展开任何形式的报复，美国将以"远超今夜所见的武力"进行回 击。而据央视新闻22日消息，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔 木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 虽然情况非常剑拔弩张，但分析师仍认为，伊朗不太可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。而如果没有实质性原油供应中断， 油价目前的地缘政治风险溢价不太可能持续下去。盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管哈 ...

Market Reaction - Asian markets, particularly Japan and South Korea, experienced significant declines, with the South Korean composite index dropping over 1.6% before narrowing to a 1.14% decrease [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell nearly 1% during trading, ultimately down 0.64% [4] Chip Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector in both Japan and South Korea saw widespread declines, with Samsung Electronics dropping over 2.8% [6] - Other notable declines included Samsung SDI and Hanmi Semiconductor, both down over 4%, and SK Hynix down over 3% [7] - In Japan, Kioxia Holdings fell over 6% amid reports of potential changes in U.S. export controls affecting major semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix [8] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline after initially rising to $3,400 per ounce, reflecting a rapid drop in geopolitical risk premium [10] - Deutsche Bank indicated that the current decline in gold's geopolitical risk premium may be misleading, suggesting that gold could rebuild its risk premium in the coming weeks [11] - Citigroup analysts forecast that gold prices may peak between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 2023 before gradually declining to a range of $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a potential drop of 20% to 25% from current forward prices [11]

白宫近期的军事部署动向引发全球能源市场高度关注。美国总统特朗普连续数日公开表态考虑军事选 项，而相关官员披露的潜在打击时间窗口更令市场神经紧绷。作为全球石油供应的"命脉区域"，中东地 区承载着全球三分之一的原油产量，其局势稳定性直接牵动能源市场神经。 智通财经APP获悉，随着中东局势持续紧张，国际原油市场正经历新一轮价格重估。行业观察家指出， 自以色列与伊朗上周爆发直接军事冲突以来，布伦特原油期货价格已隐含约8美元/桶的地缘政治风险溢 价，这一数据源自对九位资深分析师的专项调查。 市场参与者普遍认为，若美国实际介入冲突，该溢价将进一步扩大，但具体幅度仍取决于军事行动的规 模与性质。 当前市场密切监测两大关键节点：全球五分之一原油运输必经的霍尔木兹海峡航运状况，以及伊朗境内 石油基础设施的运转情况。值得注意的是，尽管地区局势升温，但最新航运数据显示伊朗原油出口量不 降反增。 能源巨头壳牌(SHEL.US)首席执行官瓦埃勒·萨万在投资者电话会议中强调，波斯湾航道若遭封锁将引 发"灾难性冲击"，公司已启动多级应急预案。巴克莱银行(BCS.US)能源分析师阿玛普里特·辛格指出， 当前油价尚未完全反映最坏情景："若冲突 ...

6月19日，港股低价油气股走势活跃，中油洁能控股（01759.HK）大涨138.74%，金泰能源控股 （02728.HK）涨52.94%，吉星新能源（03395.HK）涨34.62%，MI能源（01555.HK）涨20.93%。 以伊冲突进一步升级，中东火药桶;局势紧张。据报道，19日凌晨，伊朗对以色列发动新一轮导弹袭 击，而以军在过去24小时内对伊朗发动了三轮大规模空袭。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话，坚称 伊朗绝不投降。 以伊冲突也导致全球大宗商品市场风云变幻，国际原油价格剧烈波动。上周五，原油价格单日涨幅超 7%，创三年来最大单日涨幅，本周以来，国际油价继续维持强势震荡。 有市场人士指出，目前部分油气股大涨固然吸引了很多眼球，但投资者务必清醒认识其背后潜藏的调整 风险。 值得注意的是，由于以伊冲突对国际原油市场和经济的影响，有分析认为，美国或有足够的理由介入以 伊冲突。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令。据悉，目前 美国的航母打击群已前往中东地区，美军也将向中东调派战斗机，并扩大战机部署范围，以加强以伊冲 突期间的防御。 种种迹象表明，国际油价走势未来似乎很难平静。 ...

Group 1 - Russian investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev indicated that Russia, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia could take joint action to stabilize the oil market if necessary, referencing a precedent from 2020 when leaders collaborated to cut production amid a price crash due to the pandemic [1] - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, has led to a surge in oil prices, with market dynamics determining the severity of this increase [1] - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices is currently estimated at around $10 per barrel, which is considered reasonable given the potential for broader disruptions and reduced Iranian supply [2] Group 2 - Iran, as the third-largest producer in OPEC, extracts approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil daily, with significant concerns about potential disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where about 19 million barrels of oil and products are transported daily [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but is expected to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could stimulate economic activity and subsequently increase oil demand, although this may also exacerbate inflation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil market is in a game period between rapid inventory depletion and weakening marginal demand. Short - term supply is tight, but refinery demand is weakening. The oil price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and SC crude oil may be stronger than the external market, but risks such as inventory inflection points and the return of geopolitical risk premiums should be vigilant [4]. - The supply - demand pattern shows regional differentiation characteristics. Supply - side disturbance factors are intensifying, and demand shows uneven performance. Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential intervention of the United States may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 18, the price of SC crude oil futures rose 5.3% to 552.7 yuan/barrel, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 9.2%. WTI and Brent oil prices remained horizontally consolidated. The cross - market spread changed significantly, and the premium of the Chinese market expanded rapidly, which may be related to shipping premiums and RMB exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 1.147 billion barrels in a single week, and Cushing inventories decreased by 995,000 barrels, the largest single - week destocking since April. However, refinery processing demand showed signs of weakness, with a sharp reduction in crude oil imports and a decline in equipment utilization rates, reflecting weak terminal consumption [2]. - The supply - demand pattern is regionally differentiated. On the supply side, Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea remained unchanged. On the demand side, Japan's crude oil imports increased year - on - year in May, but the demand for refined oil products in the United States was weak [3]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may trigger U.S. intervention, which may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC crude oil rose 5.3%, WTI fell 0.85%, and Brent fell 1.44%. Spot prices of various types of crude oil showed different degrees of change, and the spreads between different types of crude oil also changed significantly [6]. - Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.65%, Cushing inventories decreased by 4.2%, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 0.06%. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 1.17%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 2.11% [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 2.65%, LU rose 3.02%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose 0.58%. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil generally increased, and the spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil also increased [7]. - Inventory: The inventory data of some regions and types of fuel oil showed different trends, and the inventories of some types of fuel oil in the United States were not updated [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - The EIA's put - into - production crude oil volume and crude oil imports in the United States from June 6 - 13 decreased compared with the previous period. Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea in July remained unchanged. Iran may maintain export resilience [8][9]. Demand - The utilization rate of U.S. refinery equipment from June 6 - 13 was lower than expected, and the production of refined oil and gasoline decreased compared with the previous period, indicating weak demand in North America [9]. Inventory - U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and total crude oil inventories decreased, while refined oil and gasoline inventories increased less than expected [10]. Market Information - Crude - related futures contracts rose, and the market is trading on Middle East geopolitical situations. If the United States is involved in the Israel - Iran conflict, the dollar may fall, and oil prices may also decline [11]. - The price of hot - rolled coil steel stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the short - term price may fall after a small increase [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [13][15][17]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs estimates the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude oil at $10 per barrel [1]

地缘冲突升级与科技变革交织，全球顶尖分析师共绘贵金属投资新蓝图 2025年6月14日，红狮金业2025年中投资论坛在香港线下线上同步盛大开幕。本次论坛汇聚领域顶尖贵金属分析师和金融科技 专家，围绕三四季度黄金、白银及原油走势展开深度剖析，并系统性探讨人工智能在黄金交易领域的革命性应用。 贵金属走势：避险需求推动黄金白银持续走强 论坛开场，红狮金融研究院首席分析师展示了最新预期分析：黄金价格在第三季度有望再次突破3500美元/盎司，而白银在工 业与投资双重需求推动下，可能挑战42美元/盎司的历史新高。 论坛现场展示的资本流动监测数据显示，在近期中东冲突升级期间，全球资金呈现出"风险资产抛售+避险资产涌入"的典型模 式。军#工、石油石化板块逆势领涨，而传统消费板块则明显承压。"这不是短期扰动"，"地缘冲突风险溢价已嵌入贵金属长 期定价。当市场看到伊朗核设施成为打击目标，意味着游戏规则已经发生本质变化。" 科技变革：AI重塑黄金交易生态 本次论坛最具前瞻性的议题聚焦AI技术在黄金交易中的应用。红狮科技金融实验室负责人首次展示了 AI黄金交易辅助系统的 两大突破性进展： 1. 多模态市场情绪分析：整合新闻文本、社交媒 ...

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings anticipates that the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict will be contained within a range of $5 to $10 per barrel [1] - Significant damage to Iran's production or export infrastructure could further elevate oil prices [1] Industry Impact - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to create volatility in the oil market, influencing pricing strategies and investment decisions [1] - The potential for increased oil prices due to geopolitical tensions may affect global supply chains and energy security [1]