Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the release of labor data that was delayed due to a government shutdown, indicating a backlog in economic reports that are crucial for assessing the labor market and overall economic health [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The anticipated labor data is expected to provide insights into employment trends and economic recovery following the shutdown [1] - The backlog of economic reports may lead to a more comprehensive understanding of the labor market dynamics once the data is fully released [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The release of this labor data is critical for policymakers and investors as it can influence decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies [1] - The article highlights the importance of timely economic data in shaping market expectations and responses [1]

Core Points - The White House warns that the federal government shutdown may permanently affect the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, leaving the Federal Reserve in the dark for decision-making [1][2] - The shutdown, which began on October 1 due to congressional disagreements, has disrupted the Labor Statistics Bureau's data collection and reporting functions, leading to delays and potential inaccuracies in economic data [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting in December may be impacted by the lack of critical economic data, forcing decisions to be made with incomplete information [5] Group 1 - The federal government shutdown has led to significant delays in the release of key economic indicators, including the October CPI and employment data [1][2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau was largely inactive during the shutdown, affecting its ability to provide timely and accurate economic reports [2][3] - The reliance on private sector data, such as that from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), is seen as insufficient to replace the comprehensive data provided by government agencies [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold prices are oscillating around $4,100 per ounce after three consecutive days of gains, with an annual increase of over 55% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979. The restart of the US government brings risk - preference repair, while weak employment data, declining business confidence, and interest - rate cut expectations support the medium - term bullish logic. Although the short - term rebound of the US dollar restrains the increase, the gold price center is still supported [1][3]. - Silver has broken through the previous high to $51.7 per ounce, reaching a new stage high. When gold is consolidating, funds are flowing to more volatile precious metals. The tight situation in the London market has been structurally alleviated, but the spot price still gets support from capital momentum and may further rise if gold prices remain strong and the US dollar continues to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections **Key Information** - US House members ended a 53 - day recess and returned to Washington to vote to end the longest government shutdown in US history [2]. - The Russian Ministry of Finance will issue two types of domestic government bonds denominated in RMB on December 8, with maturities ranging from three to seven years [2]. - As of late October, US companies cut more than 11,000 jobs per week, and the consumer confidence continued to decline [2][3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the US suspension of the export control penetration rule is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after the one - year suspension [2]. **Price Logic** - **Gold**: Gold is consolidating in the short - term high range ($4,100 - $4,150). The restart of the US government will bring a window of intensive data in the next three weeks. Preliminary alternative indicators show weak economic momentum. The decline in business confidence and employment slowdown mean that the downward pressure on real interest rates in the fourth quarter persists, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has room for further strengthening, so the gold price center is still supported [3]. - **Silver**: Silver has broken through the previous high. The tight situation in the London market has been alleviated, and the supply has been replenished. However, the spot price is still supported by capital momentum. If the gold price remains strong and the US dollar continues to decline, the silver price is expected to rise further [3]. **Outlook** - In the short term, attention should be paid to the first batch of macro - data after the government restart and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. If employment and business confidence remain weak, the pricing of an interest - rate cut in December may be further consolidated. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the London gold price in the range of $4,070 - $4,200 per ounce, and the London silver price in the range of $49 - $53 per ounce [4][7]. **Commodity Index** - **Composite Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on November 12, 2025, with increases of 0.40%, 0.48%, 0.58%, and 0.44% respectively [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 12, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.27% for the day, 3.84% in the past 5 days, - 0.77% in the past month, and 52.03% since the beginning of the year [45].

就业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少1.1万个工作岗位。而上周的另一个数据系列，ADP则预计10月份私营部门增加4.2万个就业岗位。该数据旨在更接近地复制非农报告。#行情 数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线跳水，非美货币集体上涨，现货黄金小幅走高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic data, particularly inflation and employment figures, which may take time to recover even after the shutdown ends [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown lasted for 40 days, causing significant economic losses, and the recovery of government data may take longer than expected [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October is unlikely to be released, marking a historical first, as the White House indicated that critical data was lost due to the inability to deploy surveyors [1][2]. - The September inflation data was released during the shutdown, showing a stubborn rate around 3%, which was below expectations [1]. Group 2: Employment Data Release - The release schedule for updated data is expected to be delayed until a few days after the government reopens, as officials responsible for data oversight were on unpaid leave [2]. - The first new data anticipated after the shutdown is the delayed September employment report, with predictions from financial institutions like Evercore ISI and BNP Paribas suggesting it will be released shortly after the government reopens [2]. - There are concerns that some data may be permanently lost due to challenges faced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in staffing and morale, making this situation more precarious than previous shutdowns [2]. Group 3: Political Implications - The delayed employment data is expected to fuel political discussions surrounding the economic policies of President Trump, with figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren calling for the release of the already prepared September employment data during the shutdown [3].

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [2][3] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has postponed the release of the October CPI report, raising concerns that it may not be published at all, further complicating discussions on interest rate decisions [2][3] - The absence of official data may provide a rationale for policymakers concerned about inflation to maintain interest rates in December, despite market expectations leaning towards a rate cut [2][3] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies on data for decision-making; the lack of recent employment and inflation data undermines the foundation for policy decisions [3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, and the absence of official data may strengthen the position of those focused on inflation risks [3][4] Alternative Indicators - In the absence of official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the October CPI year-on-year increase may be similar to September's lower-than-expected 3% [4] Impact of Government Shutdown - The timing of the government shutdown's resolution will be crucial for the Fed's December decision, as it will determine how quickly economic data can be updated [5][6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, ranging from receiving outdated reports to having multiple recent employment reports available before the December meeting [6] Scenarios for Employment Reports - Scenario one involves receiving an outdated September employment report, which is unlikely to influence a rate cut decision [6] - Scenario two considers the release of both September and October reports, which could complicate the decision if the unemployment rate remains stable [6] - Scenario three anticipates the release of three complete employment reports, where the unemployment rate will significantly influence the Fed's decision on whether to maintain or cut rates [6]

Group 1 - The ADP employment report for October indicates a significant rebound in private sector employment, with an increase of 42,000 jobs, while September's data was revised to a decrease of 29,000 jobs [1] - Economists had previously predicted a rebound of 28,000 jobs for the private sector, and the initial report for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs [1] - The ADP report is compiled in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and is noted to differ from the official employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1] Group 2 - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of the October non-farm payroll report, which was originally scheduled for October 3 [2] - There are concerns regarding the ability of the BLS to compile a complete October non-farm employment report due to the suspension of data collection during the government shutdown [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold futures opened at $3,992.40 per ounce, nearly unchanged from the previous day's close of $3,992.90, with prices rising above $4,000 in early trading [1] - The price of gold futures has increased by 62.4% compared to one year ago, with a 0.8% increase from the previous week and a 1.6% increase from the previous month [4][8] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report indicated that the U.S. economy added 42,000 private jobs in October, following a decline of 29,000 jobs in the prior month [2] - A report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, the highest for that month since 2003, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] Group 3: Interest Rates and Gold Demand - Gold demand typically increases when interest rates fall, as gold does not earn interest [3] - Current projections show a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again in December [3]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate range to 3.75-4.00% [5] - There were internal disagreements among committee members regarding the extent of the rate cut, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1][7] - The FOMC emphasized the need to monitor labor market conditions, inflation expectations, and international financial situations closely [3][10] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The FOMC's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing the need for economic support with concerns about inflation [5][10] - The end of balance sheet reduction on December 1 is a significant milestone, indicating a shift in monetary policy strategy [5][10] Internal Disagreements - There were two dissenting votes during the meeting, highlighting differing views on the pace of monetary easing among committee members [1][7] - Member Stephen Milan has consistently advocated for a more aggressive approach, while Jeffrey Schmieding has favored a more cautious stance [1][7] Economic Outlook - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding moderately, with job growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a stable but not robust labor market [1][9] - The committee reiterated its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data [9][10] Future Monitoring - The FOMC will continue to assess economic data and risks, leaving room for potential policy adjustments in response to changing conditions [10][11] - The upcoming data releases will be critical in determining the future direction of monetary policy, particularly following the rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction [11]