Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the complexity of economic data poses a significant challenge for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite market perceptions that Trump's tariff comments are the main issue [1] - July's U.S. inflation data shows an annual CPI stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.1%, the highest since February, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - The mixed signals from economic data create a dilemma for the Fed, as some indicators support rate cuts, while core inflation and a robust labor market suggest that cutting rates could be a high-risk choice [1] Group 2 - The market currently prices in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September, but experts argue that accelerating inflation, low unemployment, and strong financial market performance may make a rate cut unwise [1] - Powell faces the challenge of making decisions without clear data support, as any rate cut could be interpreted as yielding to political pressure, complicating the decision-making process [1] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar index is at a critical support area, with the latest quote at 97.7630, having pierced the bottom of the consolidation range from July and August at 97.70 [2] - Analysts suggest that a drop below 97.70 could indicate further declines for the dollar index, potentially targeting this year's low of 96.373 [2] - If the dollar index falls below this level, the market may further test the psychological level around 95.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cautious stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts, contrasting his previous year's statements that indicated a willingness to lower rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - A year ago, Powell indicated that the labor market did not need further cooling, suggesting a rate cut in September, which led to a 50 basis point reduction [1] - Current expectations for a September rate cut are tempered by Ed Yardeni's report, which suggests Powell may adopt a more cautious, watchful approach rather than a hawkish or dovish stance [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Yardeni anticipates that inflation will be higher than expected and employment data will also outperform expectations before the September meeting [1] - This potential economic performance may lead the Federal Reserve to exercise greater caution in their decision-making process [1]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月18日丨一年前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上将美联储明确引向秋季降息的道路。 他当时表示："我们不寻求也不欢迎劳动力市场状况进一步降温。现在是政策需要调整的时候了。"这一 表态几乎毫无疑问地预示着美联储将在9月降息，随后果然将利率下调了50个基点。今年，市场已完全 预计9月会有一次降息，但经济学家Ed Yardeni在报告中写道，鲍威尔的表态可能会更为谨慎。Yardeni 称："他更可能表现得像一只猫头鹰——保持观望，而不是鹰派或鸽派。"他补充说："我们的判断是， 在9月会议之前，通胀会比预期更高，就业数据也会好于预期。若情况如此，美联储在作出决策时可能 会更加谨慎。" ...

所有人的目光都正转向美联储主席鲍威尔，他定于本周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行会议上发表 备受期待的演讲。 这一央行年度盛会以往曾是政策制定者预告未来利率动向的机会。去年，鲍威尔就曾暗示将转向降息， 称"政策调整的时机已到"，并且"他越来越相信通胀正处于回到2%的可持续路径上"。 华尔街普遍预计美联储将在9月恢复降息，此前由于美国总统特朗普的关税影响波及整个经济，美联储 已数月按兵不动。与此同时，特朗普和白宫也向美联储施加了巨大的宽松压力，且一位更为鸽派的理事 也获得了任命。 但鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行会议上可能不会给出重大的暗示。 首先，一些分析师认为9月降息并非板上钉钉，因为通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，并且随着关税给物价 带来上行压力，通胀正在走高。 与此同时，经济学家们正在争论就业数据的恶化是由于工人需求疲软还是供应不足。如果问题在于供 应，那么降息将加剧通胀。 牛津经济研究院副首席美国经济学家Michael Pearce在上周五的一份报告中写道，"关税的影响正在不均 衡地显现，并将在未来几个月继续推高通胀，对于政策制定者来说，要从更持久的通胀压力中厘清一次 性的关税影响将是困难的。" 目前，他认 ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September, with a focus on the Federal Reserve officials' upcoming statements [1][12] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitance towards rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [2][4] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [3][5] Group 2 - Goolsbee indicated that more convincing inflation data is needed before confirming the economic outlook [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the idea of two rate cuts this year, citing a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth [7][8] - Daly emphasized the importance of waiting for data before making decisions on the number of rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17 to decide on potential rate cuts [10] - Upcoming economic data releases include the August non-farm payrolls on September 5 and the August CPI on September 11 [10] - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding rate cuts, with futures traders pricing in a high likelihood of a September cut and potentially a third cut by year-end [13]

从解雇劳工统计局局长，到要求高盛换经济学家，美国媒体评价说，特朗普处理"不合意"数据的方式无 非两种——要么改数据，要么换人。 新华财经北京8月15日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中 越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普针对这一观点发文表示，高盛集团经济学家"应该换人"，业余爱 好"打碟"的集团首席执行官应专注其副业。 《华尔街日报》报道说，从实际情况看，高盛经济学家团队的预测较为准确：近几个月来，美国就业增 长放缓至16年来最低水平；顽固的通货膨胀率不降反升；2025年美国经济增长乏力。 特朗普：高盛CEO要么换经济学家，要么去搞副业 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至今年6月，美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业 转嫁关税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预测"错了"。"大多数情况下，承担这些关税（成本）的根本不是消费者，主要是公司 和政府，其中许多是外国（公司和政府）。" 特朗普在帖文中不点名批评牵头完成上述研究报告的高盛 ...

据报道，古尔斯比周三表示："我理解市场快速处理信息是其商业模式，但这不符合我对央行运作方式 的理解。" 这位芝加哥联储主席强调，美国就业市场仍比7月劳动力市场数据显示的更为强劲。他还指出，通胀数 据中的一些细节引发了担忧，表明美联储抑制价格压力的努力可能不再处于"黄金路径"。 鹰派声音来了！美联储票委最新警告：不要在通胀受控前"仓促"降息，给市场对9月降息的强烈预期"泼 下一盆冷水"。 8月13日，据媒体报道，芝加哥联储主席、2025年FOMC票委古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）发出鹰派警 告，敦促美联储不要在通胀完全受控前"仓促"降息。 古尔斯比称，美联储可能面临将通胀推回2%目标的"困难时期"。他强调央行不应像市场那样快速处理 信息，暗示需要更加谨慎的政策路径。 分析人士称，这一表态显示美联储内部对降息时机存在分歧，与特朗普政府官员的激进降息呼声形成鲜 明对比。 据见闻文章提及，美国财政部长贝森特早些时候建议美联储在9月中旬会议上将基准利率下调50个基 点。另外，上周六，美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话，支持今年降息三次并敦促央行在9月会议上启动降息。 鹰派票委发声：不要仓促 市场此前已完全消化9月降息2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated a high likelihood of a significant 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September due to recent weak employment data [1][2][4] Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - Recent revisions to employment data show that job growth in May, June, and July has nearly stagnated, contrasting sharply with previous reports [4] - The market's expectation for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve has approached nearly 100% following the latest inflation data showing a mild increase [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Political Context - Mnuchin suggested that the Federal Reserve should lower rates by 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Trump administration's criticism of the Fed's previous rate decisions [1][5] - The proposed rate cut would reduce the current rate from the 4.25% to 4.5% range to approximately 3%, which is considered a "neutral" level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [5] Group 3: Inflation and Future Outlook - Despite calls for rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, stating that the fight against inflation is not yet won, as price increases still exceed target levels [6] - Some policymakers are beginning to accept the idea of ignoring price fluctuations related to tariffs, focusing instead on the potential rise in unemployment [6]

当地时间周三，美国财政部长贝森特表示，鉴于近期就业数据疲软，美联储9月份有可能会大幅降息50个基点。 贝森特在当天接受采访时说："如果我们在5月或6月看到这些修正后的非农数据，我怀疑美联储可能已经在6月和7月降息了。这告诉我们，9月份降息50个基 点的可能性非常高。" 他还表示："利率目前限制性过强……美联储应该将利率降低150到175个基点。"他进一步呼应了特朗普政府对美联储的公开批评和详细政策建议，尽管美联 储坚称货币政策只会基于经济数据，而非政府施压。 然而，越来越多的美联储政策制定者开始接受忽略关税相关价格波动的观点。他们认为，就业数据的修正使他们更加关注失业率上升的可能性，一些降息倡 导者则认为，美联储需要提前采取行动。 在最新数据显示美国7月通胀温和上升，以及贝森特发表上述评论之后，市场对美联储9月降息的预期已接近100%。 美联储理事鲍曼上周表示："采取积极措施将政策从目前的适度紧缩立场向中性水平靠拢，将有助于避免劳动力市场出现不必要的恶化，并减少如果劳动力 市场进一步恶化，委员会需要实施更大规模政策调整的可能性。" 贝森特呼吁降息之际，特朗普政府正在寻找美联储主席鲍威尔的替代人选，目前潜在候选 ...

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 33 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数显示，中国经济恢复势头有所放缓但整体依然稳 健。具体来看，消费景气指数小幅回落至收缩区间，但降幅有限，反映居民消 费信心和市场活力仍处于修复过程。投资景气指数虽较上周略有回落，但仍接 近扩张区间，显示在政策推动下基建和制造业投资继续发挥支撑作用。生产景 气指数小幅下降至接近荣枯线，企业生产活动温和放缓，但供给端韧性仍在。 出口景气指数与上周基本持平，维持在荣枯线附近，表明外需保持稳定但缺乏 明显加速动力。总体来看，ICHI 综合景气指数提示，尽管经济复苏节奏略有放 缓，但在政策支持与内生动能共同作用下，中国经济依然保持平稳运行格局。 2025 年前 7 个月，中国进出口总值同比增长 3.5%，增速较上半年加快 0.6 个百 分点。其中，7 月当月出口与进口同比均加快凸显外贸韧性。从结构上看，高技 术产品进出口增长 8.4%，贡献率达 45.4%；出口"新三样"产品增长 14.9%；机 电产品出口占比近六成，集成电路和汽车出口快速增长，反映出中国出口产品 正加快向高端、绿色转型。从贸易伙伴来看，东盟连续保持中国第一大贸易伙 ...