Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize around 2026, but significant price increases are unlikely, with a focus on gradual recovery rather than explosive growth [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall real estate market is on a path to stabilization, with a notable reduction in the decline of property sales area and a smaller price drop of approximately 7% in second-hand homes, indicating a phase of "price for volume" [5][10]. - Predictions suggest that national housing prices will likely fluctuate within a narrow range of -3% to +2% in 2026, making it difficult to see a return to a "buy and profit" market [7][9]. - The market is expected to remain near the bottom, seeking a new equilibrium rather than experiencing rapid price increases [9]. Group 2: Urban and Sector Disparities - There is a growing disparity between cities and districts, with significant differences in property values and market conditions becoming more pronounced [12][15]. - Major cities and strong second-tier cities are seeing stable demand, while areas with declining industries and populations are likely to struggle [12][15]. - The focus for buyers should shift from national trends to specific local conditions, assessing the viability of individual properties based on their location and market dynamics [15]. Group 3: Shift in Housing Types - The market is transitioning from a focus on pre-sale properties to an emphasis on completed homes, with longer inventory turnover periods and a significant decline in land sale revenues [17][22]. - The government is promoting a "see it, touch it" approach to home buying, aiming to reduce systemic risks associated with unfinished projects [22][24]. - Developers will face increased challenges in relying on high turnover and leverage, necessitating a focus on product quality and service [24][28]. Group 4: Future Implications - The central government emphasizes a shift from high-leverage, high-turnover models to a focus on quality and risk prevention in the real estate sector [26][28]. - The future of housing demand will prioritize quality over mere availability, with a focus on "good cities + good houses" rather than widespread price increases [26][28].

Policy News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued opinions on improving housing quality, aiming for significant progress by 2030 in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation levels [1] - The policy emphasizes the construction of quality affordable housing and the transformation of old houses into "good houses" [1] Tax Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [2] Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foundational system for real estate credit, focusing on the implementation of financial policies to support the stable development of the real estate market [3] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which will focus on generating stable cash flows through asset-backed securities [4] Regional Development - Shenzhen's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality real estate development, targeting affordable housing and improved commodity housing to address housing issues for new citizens, youth, and migrant workers [5] Market Trends - In 2025, land sales revenue in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with Beijing's land sales amounting to approximately 142.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 8% from the previous year [6] - Four major real estate companies, including Poly Developments and China Overseas, are expected to achieve sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Company News - Vanke plans to hold a meeting to discuss the extension of a domestic bond repayment, proposing to delay the principal repayment date by one year [9] - Country Garden has set December 30, 2025, as the effective date for its debt restructuring plan, which has been approved by the Hong Kong High Court [10] - CIFI Holdings announced the successful completion of its overseas debt restructuring, reducing its debt by approximately 38 billion yuan [11] - Longfor Group reported significant progress in its domestic debt restructuring, with over 62% of its remaining bonds being addressed through various options [12]

Policy Overview - The Central Financial Office has released positive signals regarding the stabilization of the real estate market, emphasizing three key measures: focusing on both supply and demand, promoting the transformation of real estate companies, and accelerating the establishment of a new development model for real estate[4]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined six key tasks to promote high-quality development in real estate, including optimizing the supply of affordable housing and improving property service quality[4]. Local Initiatives - Shenzhen has issued its first housing voucher worth 40.55 million yuan, marking a significant step in the implementation of the housing voucher system aimed at accelerating urban village renovations[6]. - Beijing has cleaned up over 17,000 instances of illegal real estate information, indicating a stronger regulatory approach to stabilize market expectations[7]. Talent Support Policies - Shenzhen has introduced a housing subsidy for young talents, providing 1,250 yuan per month (after tax 1,000 yuan) for a maximum of 24 months[8]. - Nantong has launched a housing voucher policy for various talent categories, with subsidies reaching up to 1.5 million yuan depending on the talent level[8]. Future Outlook - The combination of short-term policies and long-term institutional reforms is expected to work in tandem to stabilize the real estate market by 2026, with significant room for policy adjustments on both supply and demand sides[5]. - More cities are anticipated to adopt housing voucher systems to enhance housing security for specific groups, thereby stimulating housing demand[9].

2025年年末，深圳楼市发布最新数据。深房中协的数据显示，今年第52周（12月22日~12月28日），全 市新房交易同比上升，二手房交易高位小幅下滑。截至12月28日，12月已累计录得5959套，整月超6000 套已成定局。 据深圳市房地产信息平台数据，2025年第52周全市新房（预售+现售）成交1474套，环比增长57.0%。 其中住宅类成交622套，环比增长11.5%。 数据来源：深圳市房地产中介协会 具体来看，光明和凤凰片区位于第一象限，其交易活跃度与价格均高于光明区均值，一定程度上体现出 较强的抗风险能力。在成交房源中，光明片区均价最高，公明片区均价最低。具体分布如下图所示： 备注：1.上图中心点坐标为（第52周光明区二手住宅片区录得量均值，第52周光明区片区二手住宅录得 均价）； 2.图上片区所在位置为与中心点偏离程度的大小。 11月29日，深圳"十五五"规划建议全文公布，其中15大项，76小项内容，涵括深圳发展的方方面面。其 中，房地产方面，提到推动房地产高质量发展。 （一）推动房地产投资向保障房和改善性商品房两侧发力，落实商品房开发、融资、销售等基础制度， 加快构建房地产发展新模式。 经深房中协 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has seen a narrowing month-on-month increase but an expanding year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has turned positive month-on-month with a narrowing year-on-year decline [5][14] - The inventory of new homes has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening both month-on-month and year-on-year [5][14] - The land market has experienced a decrease in transaction volume and a rise in prices, with both volume and price declining year-on-year [5][54] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of December 20-26, 2025, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 2.74 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 39.2% [15][20] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,491 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [32][33] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities was 19.8, 13.2, and 70.3 months respectively, with year-on-year increases across all tiers [25][35] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 5,116.1 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [54][58] - The total transaction price for land was 129.13 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 10.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [55][58] - The average floor price for land was 2,524.1 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 13.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% [56][58] 3. Policy Overview - The central government emphasized the importance of the real estate sector in the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating continued potential for growth and the need for policy adjustments to stabilize the market [90][91] - Local policies in Beijing have been adjusted to ease purchasing conditions for non-local households and support multi-child families, reflecting a trend towards more flexible housing policies [91][92] 4. Market Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 1.9%, with a relative return of -0.04% compared to the CSI 300 index, indicating a slight improvement week-on-week [94][95] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the real estate sector was 24.68X, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.9X [98]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's new five-year plan emphasizes high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on affordable housing and improved commodity housing to meet the needs of various demographics, including new citizens and young workers [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Shenzhen Municipal Committee's proposal outlines a dual approach to real estate development, distinguishing between "guarantee track" for basic housing needs and "market track" for improving housing quality [1]. - The plan aims to enhance the construction, allocation, and management of affordable housing, ensuring that basic housing needs are met for low-income groups [1][2]. Group 2: Achievements in Affordable Housing - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Shenzhen has established 632,000 units of affordable housing, surpassing the total from the previous two five-year plans combined [2]. - The city has maintained an annual construction scale of over 150,000 units of affordable housing, accounting for more than 40% of the total new commodity housing during the same period [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The development of improved commodity housing is seen as a key driver for enhancing living standards and meeting diverse housing needs, which is crucial for urban stability and social equity [2][3]. - The focus on both affordable and improved housing is expected to stimulate market activity and support the overall real estate market's healthy cycle, helping to stabilize housing prices and market expectations [3].

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 住建部部署 26 年工作任务，北京发布楼市新政 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/12/20-25/12/26） 投资要点： 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 1.9%、深证成指上升 3.5%、创业板指上升 3.9%、沪 深 300 上升 1.9%、房地产（申万）上升 1.9%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为： 华联控股(+42.3%)、首开股份(+23.6%)、海南机场(+16.1%)、苏州高新(+13.4%)、 京基智农(+12.0%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：中天服务(-15.4%)、世联行(-14.6%)、 ST 中迪(-10.3%)、财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in China's real estate market towards a focus on housing as a necessity rather than an investment, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims for high-quality development in the sector [3][27]. Group 1: Housing Affordability and Accessibility - The article highlights the challenges faced by young people in affording housing, with high prices consuming their savings and leading to significant financial burdens [1][5]. - The government plans to enhance the supply of affordable housing, ensuring that ordinary citizens can meet their housing needs without depleting their savings [7][9]. - The construction of over 68 million units of affordable housing has already benefited 170 million people, indicating a commitment to improving housing accessibility [9]. Group 2: Market Stability and Regulation - The government aims to stabilize the housing market by establishing a linkage mechanism between population changes and housing demand, which will help prevent extreme price fluctuations [11][14]. - There will be a focus on removing unreasonable restrictions in housing consumption to allow for the normal release of housing demand [12]. - Local governments will have the authority to implement tailored policies based on regional conditions, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach [14]. Group 3: Risk Mitigation in Home Buying - The article discusses measures to reduce risks associated with home buying, such as ensuring that homes are sold only after they are completed, thus eliminating the risk of unfinished projects [17][19]. - Strict regulations on pre-sale funds will be enforced to ensure that developers use the money for project construction, thereby safeguarding buyers' investments [19]. - The introduction of a main bank system for project financing will help manage risks and ensure that funds are allocated appropriately [19]. Group 4: Quality of Housing and Living Conditions - The government plans to enhance the quality of housing by implementing improvement projects that focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability [21]. - Upgrades to property services will extend beyond basic maintenance to include additional services such as elder care and childcare, improving the overall living experience [23]. - The article asserts that the focus will shift from speculative investment to ensuring that housing meets the needs of residents, thereby enhancing their quality of life [27].

《建议》提出，推动房地产高质量发展。建立与人口规模和流向、产业基础、公共服务设施等核心要素 相适配的房地产开发机制，加快构建房地产发展新模式。建立健全满足保障性、刚性、改善性、外向型 购房需求的多层次住房供应体系。着眼住房消费新需求和"旅居云南"高质量发展，大力推进"好房子"建 设。建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度，实施房屋品质提升计划和物业服务质量提升行动。 建立健全满足保障性、刚性、改善性、外向型购房需求的多层次住房供应体系 12月29日，《中共云南省委关于制定云南省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布(以下 简称《建议》)。 ...