Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 20, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 20, 2025, the domestic spot price was 84775, the LME spot price was 10506, and the spot price ratio was 8.10; the domestic three - month price was 84350, the LME three - month price was 10523, and the three - month price ratio was 8.05 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21860, the LME spot price was 3084, and the spot price ratio was 7.09; the domestic three - month price was 21870, the LME three - month price was 2948, and the three - month price ratio was 5.78 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20950, the LME spot price was 2791, and the spot price ratio was 7.50; the domestic three - month price was 20920, the LME three - month price was 2778, and the three - month price ratio was 7.55 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123700, the LME spot price was 14983, and the spot price ratio was 8.26. The profit from spot import was - 1658.10 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16825, the LME spot price was 1930, and the spot price ratio was 8.76; the domestic three - month price was 17090, the LME three - month price was 1972, and the three - month price ratio was 11.10 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 660, - 700, - 800, and - 880 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 527, 953, 1387, and 1821 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 110, - 70, - 35, and 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 331, 450, and 569 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 65, - 55, - 50, and - 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 10, - 10, - 10, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 60, 240, 490, and 780 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 390, and the theoretical spread was 5818 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 300 and - 360 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 546 and 918 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 80 and - 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 191 and 307 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 275 and 265 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217 and 330 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 20, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.86, 4.03, 4.94, 0.96, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively; for London (triple - continuous), they were 3.60, 3.82, 5.38, 0.94, 1.41, and 0.67 respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on October 17, 2025 [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 17, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85,180, the LME price was 10,617, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 85,010, the LME price was 10,628, and the ratio was 8.03 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21,920, the LME price was 3,093, and the ratio was 7.09; the domestic three - month price was 22,005, the LME price was 2,956, and the ratio was 5.79 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,950, the LME price was 2,781, and the ratio was 7.53; the domestic three - month price was 20,995, the LME price was 2,763, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,600, the LME price was 15,034, and the ratio was 8.22, with a spot import profit of - 1,568.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,900, the LME price was 1,943, and the ratio was 8.72; the domestic three - month price was 17,135, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 11.05 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 17, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 580, - 640, - 750, and - 800 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 530, 959, 1396, and 1833 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 20, 60, 85, and 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 331, 450, and 569 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 140, 140, 140, and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 332, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 70, - 65, - 55, and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 425, and 532 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 410, 650, 890, and 1170 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 270, and the theoretical spread was 5,827 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 495 and - 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 592 and 978 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 25 and 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 195 and 323 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 300 and 230 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225 and 338 [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 17, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai market (three - continuous) were 3.86, 4.05, 4.96, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.78 respectively; in the London market (three - continuous), they were 3.58, 3.80, 5.39, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 16, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage - **Copper**: On October 16, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85250, the LME spot price was 10745, with a spot ratio of 7.86; the domestic three - month price was 85850, the LME three - month price was 10717, with a ratio of 7.97; the spot import profit was - 1521.41 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22010, the LME spot price was 3076, with a spot ratio of 7.16; the domestic three - month price was 22040, the LME three - month price was 2936, with a ratio of 5.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20920, the LME spot price was 2764, with a spot ratio of 7.57; the domestic three - month price was 20935, the LME three - month price was 2757, with a ratio of 7.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123550, the LME spot price was 15044, with a spot ratio of 8.21; the spot import profit was - 1281.18 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16900, the LME spot price was 1946, with a spot ratio of 8.68; the domestic three - month price was 17130, the LME three - month price was 1991, with a ratio of 11.08 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 1400, 1450, 1390, and 1250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 524, 946, 1377, and 1808 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 185, - 160, - 125, and - 100, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 70, 95, 105, and 100, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 80, 85, and - 110, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 690, 840, 1060, and 1330 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 240, and the theoretical spread was 5832 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 815 and 585, and the theoretical spreads were 415 and 1091 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 190 and 5, and the theoretical spreads were 194 and 323 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 150 and 210, and the theoretical spreads were 207 and 320 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.90, 4.10, 5.01, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively; for London (three - continuous) were 3.60, 3.85, 5.33, 0.93, 1.38, and 0.68 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 15, 2025 [1][4] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 85,925, March price is 84,380, LME March price is 10,527, and the March price ratio is 8.18 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22,210, March price is 22,255, LME March price is 2,978, and the March price ratio is 5.73 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20,890, March price is 20,875, LME March price is 2,736, and the March price ratio is 7.65 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16,850, March price is 17,060, LME March price is 1,981, and the March price ratio is 11.25 [1][3] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 123,150, and the profit of spot import is - 1,256.48 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 590, - 620, - 710, and - 760 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 527, 952, 1386, and 1820 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 15, 50, 80, and 100 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 5, 10, 15, and 5 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 215, 332, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 50, - 40, - 40, and 5 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 320, - 160, 60, and 280 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 540, with a theoretical spread of 5808 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 960 and - 1550 respectively, with theoretical spreads of - 51 and 338 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 5 and 10 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 71 and 201 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 250 and 200 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 113 and 225 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.79, 4.04, 4.95, 0.94, 1.22, and 0.77 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 14, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 85010, three - month price is 85120, LME three - month price is 10599, and the ratio is 8.02 [1]. - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22200, three - month price is 22290, LME three - month price is 3014, and the ratio is 5.69 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20800, three - month price is 20890, LME three - month price is 2755, and the ratio is 7.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 123600, and the profit of spot import is - 1256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16925, three - month price is 17110, LME three - month price is 2007, and the ratio is 11.09 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are 120, 120, 80, 90 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 527, 952, 1386, 1820 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 50, 85, 115, 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 454, 574 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 20, 25, 25, 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 564 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are - 5, 10, 5, 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 260, 430, 700, 880 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 80, and the theoretical spread is 5841 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 10 and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 98 and 585 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 5 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 82 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 175 and 170 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 105 and 218 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.82, 4.07, 4.97, 0.94, 1.22, 0.77 respectively [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 13, 2025, including prices, ratios, spreads, and profit data [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,550, the LME price was 10,706, and the ratio was 8.11. The profit from spot import was - 947.78 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME price was 3,104, and the ratio was 7.19. The profit from spot import was - 4,175.73 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,990, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 7.55. The profit from spot import was - 2,342.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,900, the LME price was 15,131, and the ratio was 8.25. The profit from spot import was - 1,256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 8.51. The profit from spot import was - 642.27 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 820, - 820, - 790, and - 850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 969, 1412, and 1855 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10, 20, 50, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 105, and - 130, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 50, 65, and 35, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2080, - 1890, - 1700, and - 1550 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 150, and the theoretical spread was 5921 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 75 and - 745, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 533 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 30 and - 40, and the theoretical spreads were 81 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 215, and the theoretical spreads were 117 and 230 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, for the cross - variety ratios: copper/zinc (Shanghai: 3.85, London: 3.50), copper/aluminum (Shanghai: 4.09, London: 3.83), copper/lead (Shanghai: 5.01, London: 5.21), aluminum/zinc (Shanghai: 0.94, London: 0.92), aluminum/lead (Shanghai: 1.22, London: 1.36), lead/zinc (Shanghai: 0.77, London: 0.67) [5].

Core Insights - The market basis for alumina futures reflects the difference between spot prices and futures prices, influenced by supply and demand, storage costs, and policy expectations [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Formation - Supply and Demand: Short-term shortages in the spot market, such as increased production of electrolytic aluminum or reduced production of alumina, can raise spot prices and expand positive basis. For instance, the basis for the December 2024 alumina 2501 contract reached 496 CNY/ton due to limited circulation of goods [2] - Costs and Logistics: Transportation bottlenecks for bauxite or rising storage costs can widen the basis. For example, the suspension of bauxite exports from Guinea led to futures prices rising above spot prices, resulting in a negative basis of -329 CNY/ton [2] - Policy and Market Expectations: Environmental production limits and tariff adjustments can cause regional basis fluctuations. Typically, the basis converges as the delivery month approaches, although liquidity risks may weaken this convergence [2] Group 2: Significance of Basis for Trading - Hedging: Dynamic position adjustments are necessary to hedge against basis volatility risks [3] - Arbitrage Opportunities: When the basis deviates from historical averages (e.g., alumina basis rate above 80% of the statistical range), there may be opportunities for futures-spot arbitrage [3] - Price Forecasting: The structure of the basis (e.g., backwardation in distant months) can indicate the market's long-term supply and demand expectations [4]

1. Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price in China is 85,900, LME price is 10,843, and the ratio is 7.69; three - month price in China is 86,820, LME price is 10,868, and the ratio is 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.11, with a loss of 968.44, and a profit of 1465.36 for spot export [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 22,140, LME price is 3,096, and the ratio is 7.15; three - month price in China is 22,335, LME price is 3,030, and the ratio is 5.59. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.53, with a loss of 4264.28 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 20,960, LME price is 2,796, and the ratio is 7.50; three - month price in China is 21,085, LME price is 2,788, and the ratio is 7.53. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.38, with a loss of 2476.58 [1] Nickel - Spot price in China is 121,850, LME price is 15,358, and the ratio is 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.19, with a loss of 2247.17 [1] Lead - Spot price in China is 16,775, LME price is 1,986, and the ratio is 8.46; three - month price in China is 17,135, LME price is 2,016, and the ratio is 11.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.83, with a loss of 734.46 [3] 2. Cross - term Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 3400, 3470, 3500, and 3400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 519, 936, 1361, and 1787 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 1175, 1195, 1230, and 1260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 323, 438, and 553 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 380, 375, 375, and 370 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] Lead - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 690, 710, 720, and 595 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 413, and 517 [4] Nickel - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 4170, 4350, 4540, and 4810 respectively [4] Tin - The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is - 210, and the theoretical spread is 5939 [4] 3. Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 2370 and 1030 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are - 208 and 762 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 1000 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 116 and 246 (also mentioned as 59 and 240) [4][5] Lead - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 350 and 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 44 and 156 [5] 4. Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.89, 4.12, 5.07, 0.94, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts) are 3.61, 3.88, 5.35, 0.93, 1.38, and 0.67 respectively [5]

Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on October 9, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price in China is 83240, LME price is 10339, and the ratio is 8.06; March price in China is 83110, LME price is 10382, and the ratio is 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.10, with a profit of - 295.06 [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 21820, LME price is 2971, and the ratio is 7.34; March price in China is 21850, LME price is 2915, and the ratio is 5.81. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.53, with a profit of - 3533.69 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 20720, LME price is 2663, and the ratio is 7.78; March price in China is 20690, LME price is 2665, and the ratio is 7.79. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a profit of - 1618.40 [1] Nickel - Spot price in China is 120150, LME price is 15012, and the ratio is 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.18, with a profit of - 1281.13 [1] Lead - Spot price in China is 16775, LME price is 1949, and the ratio is 8.62; March price in China is 16985, LME price is 1991, and the ratio is 11.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.83, with a profit of - 406.67 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are - 240, - 240, - 300, - 300 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 519, 936, 1361, 1787 [4] Zinc - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are 685, 710, 735, 785 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 323, 438, 553 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are - 30, - 20, - 10, - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, 561 [4] Lead - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are 515, 560, 570, 530 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 413, 517 [4] Nickel - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are 590, 750, 960, 1260 respectively [4] Tin - The 5 - 1 spread is 300, and the theoretical spread is 5700 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 155 and - 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 314 and 739 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 680 and 5 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 129 and 257 [4] Lead - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 350 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 77 and 190 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.80, 4.02, 4.89, 0.95, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) are 3.47, 3.83, 5.16, 0.91, 1.35, 0.67 respectively [5]

Core Insights - The basis of alumina futures is expected to change, reflecting the difference between spot and futures prices, which is a normal occurrence driven by various factors [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Changes - Supply and demand dynamics: Short-term shortages or surpluses in the spot market, such as production increases or decreases in electrolytic aluminum plants, directly impact the basis [3] - Futures contract expiration: As the delivery month approaches, the basis typically converges, meaning futures prices align more closely with spot prices [3] - Storage and transportation costs: Logistics bottlenecks, such as port inventories and railway capacity, can widen the basis [3] - Policies and tariffs: Adjustments in export tariffs and environmental production limits may cause regional basis fluctuations [3] Group 2: Basis Change Patterns - Positive basis (spot premium): Common during periods of spot shortages, such as the 2022 European energy crisis that led to reduced aluminum production and a premium for spot alumina [3] - Negative basis (futures premium): Anticipation of future surpluses, such as new mines coming online, may lead futures prices to reflect this ahead of time [3] Group 3: Implications for Traders - Hedging: Companies need to dynamically adjust positions to hedge against basis risks [3] - Arbitrage opportunities: Deviations from historical averages in the basis may present opportunities for spot-futures arbitrage [3] - Delivery decisions: As the delivery month approaches, it is essential to assess the convergence path of the basis [3]