期货价差
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《金融》日报-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:44
Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core Information - Date: August 29, 2025 - Analyst: Ye Qianning Key Points - **Price Spread Data**: The report provides a comprehensive set of price spread data for various stock index futures, including F, H, IC, and IM. It details the current values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile rankings for both 1 - year and full - history periods. For example, the F期现价差 is - 3.38, with a change of - 1.26 from the previous day, and a 1 - year percentile of 52.90% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Multiple cross - period spreads are presented, such as the differences between the next month, the quarterly month, and the far - month contracts compared to the current month. For instance, the 次月 - 当月 spread for some contracts shows specific values and percentile rankings [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The report also includes cross - variety ratios, like the ratios between different stock index futures contracts. For example, the 中证500/沪深300 ratio is 1.5707, with a change of 0.0061 from the previous day, and a 1 - year percentile of 98.30% [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spread Core Information - Date: August 29, 2025 - Analyst: Xiong Gongjian Key Points - **Basis and IRR Data**: The report shows the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) data for different treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS基差 is 1.4342, with a change of - 0.0173 from the previous day, and an IRR percentile of 17.90% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Similar to the stock index futures report, it details cross - period spreads for different contract months. For instance, the 当季 - 下季 spread for TS is - 0.0440, with a change of 0.0260 from the previous day, and a percentile of 16.20% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures are presented, such as the spreads between TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For example, the TS - TF spread is 0.0940, with a certain percentile ranking [2]. Report on Precious Metals Spot - Futures Core Information - Date: August 29, 2025 - Analyst: Ye Qianning Key Points - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices for gold and silver. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 783.22 yuan/kg on August 28, with a change of 2.06 and a 0.26% increase [4]. - **Price Differences and Ratios**: It includes price differences between spot and futures, such as the difference between London gold and COMEX gold, and ratios like COMEX gold/silver. For example, the London gold - COMEX gold difference is - 61.11, with a change of - 5.80 from the previous day [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Information on relevant interest rates (e.g., 10 - year US Treasury bond yield) and exchange rates (e.g., US dollar index) is provided [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Core Information - Date: August 29, 2025 - Analyst: Ye Qianning Key Points - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different carriers (e.g., MAERSK, CMA, MSC) are given, along with their daily changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Various shipping indexes, such as SCFIS and SCFI for different routes (European and US West), are presented, showing their changes over different time periods [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices for different contracts (e.g., EC2602, EC2510) and the basis for the main contract are provided, along with their daily changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Fundamental data related to the container shipping industry, including global container capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic data (e.g., Eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI), are presented [6]. Report on Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Core Information - Data Sources: Wind,广发期货研究所 Key Points - **Overseas Data**: Overseas data includes US macro - economic indicators (e.g., core PCE物价指数, consumer confidence index) and agricultural CFTC持仓报告 [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Domestic data covers various industries, such as black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., silicon iron production, manganese silicon inventory), energy and chemical (e.g., PX开工率, downstream product inventory), and special commodities (e.g., polysilicon average cost) [9].
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250828
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 06:06
Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 796.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was -43.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (Carajás fines: 61 yuan today, up 1 yuan from the previous day), the basis values and their changes are presented. Some varieties like Mac fines had a stable basis, while others like FMG blended fines had a basis increase of 2 yuan [6]. 2.2 Basis Charts - There are charts for different basis benchmarks including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores, etc. [8][9] 3. Policy - related Adjustments of Dalian Commodity Exchange 3.1 Adjustment of Deliverable Varieties - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) were added, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11]. - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate powder, Magang concentrate powder, Minmetals standard powder, SP10 powder) were added as deliverable brands, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, applicable to the I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. 3.2 Adjustment of Brand Premiums and Discounts - Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums and discounts of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums and Discounts - The allowable range of iron grade index was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount regulations for different index intervals were detailed, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium and discount value of the iron element index (X) was introduced [11]. 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Data - The spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines (145.0 yuan/ton, unchanged), PB fines - blended fines (62.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan), etc. are presented [13]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing different types of variety spreads, including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][18] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the industry [23]
《金融》日报-20250827
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints presented in the provided reports. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF futures - spot spread is -3.59, down 8.97 from the previous day; IH is 1.02, down 1.12; IC is -47.67, down 5.37; IM is -61.07, up 4.46 [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For example, IF's next - to - current month spread is -7.40, down 4.40; H's is -20.40, down 3.20 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.5640, up 0.0085; IC/IF is 1.5546, up 0.0104 [1]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: IRR for 15 - bond is 1.4476, down 0.0217; TF basis is 1.2758, up 0.0468; T basis is 0.9147, up 0.5196; TL basis is 0.5493, up 0.9191 [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: TS's current - to - next quarter spread is -0.0720, up 0.0040; TF's is 0.1750, down 0.0350; T's is 0.4500, down 0.0100 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: TS - TF is -3.1600, down 0.0460; TS - T is -5.5950, down 0.0610; TF - T is -2.4350, down 0.0150 [2]. 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: AU2510 contract closed at 781.12 yuan/g on Aug 26, up 1.94 from Aug 25; AG2510 closed at 9354 yuan/kg, down 40 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3393.47 dollars/ounce on Aug 26, up 27.86; London silver was at 38.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.05 [7]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is -4.29, down 0.45; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is -43, down 13 [7]. 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Maersk's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate is 2235 dollars/FEU on Aug 27, down 118 from Aug 26; CMA CGM is 2591 dollars/FEU, up 23 [8]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on Aug 25 is 1990.20, down 190.0 from Aug 18; SCFIS (US West route) is 1041.38, down 64.9 [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 contract on Aug 26 is 1469.3, down 27.6 from Aug 25; EC2510 (main contract) is 1318.9, down 39.1; basis of the main contract is 573.6, down 160.9 [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply on Aug 27 is 3292.63 million TEU, unchanged from Aug 26; Shanghai port on - time rate in July is 32.58%, down 1.99 from the previous month [8]. 5. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending Aug 22 is reported at 4:30; EIA crude oil inventory is reported at 22:30 [9]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Steel Union's weekly production and sales survey of 523 mines for coking coal is in the evening; China's port commercial crude oil inventory (in 10,000 tons) is reported at 14:30 [9].
全品种价差日报-20250827
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest data on the basis, basis rate, historical quantile, spot price, futures price, and spot reference for various commodities across multiple sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals on August 27, 2025. It also includes data on stock index futures and bond futures [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: Futures price is 5698, basis is 158, basis rate is 2.70%, historical quantile is 52.80%, and spot price is 6020 [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Futures price is 5862, with relevant spot price and other data provided [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Futures price is 3113, basis is 187, basis rate is 6.01%, historical quantile is 70.10%, and spot price is 3300 [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Futures price is 3400, basis is 33, basis rate is 0.98%, historical quantile is 31.70%, and spot price is 3367 [1]. - **Iron Ore (12601)**: Futures price has a change of - 2.0996, basis is - 35, basis rate is - 2.0996%, historical quantile is 40.85%, and spot price is 1681 [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: Relevant data on basis, basis rate, historical quantile, and spot price are presented [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1145, basis is - 16, basis rate is - 1.34%, historical quantile is 21.70%, and spot price is 1161 [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2510)**: Futures price is 79190, basis is 130, basis rate is 0.50%, historical quantile is 81.66%, and spot price is 79585 [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: Futures price is 20715, basis is 0, basis rate is 0.31%, historical quantile is 68.75%, and spot price is 20780 [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 168, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: Futures price is 22210, basis is - 60, basis rate is - 0.27%, historical quantile is 40.41%, and spot price is 22270 [1]. - **Tin (SN2510)**: Futures price is 269420, basis is 580, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 64.37%, and spot price is 270000 [1]. - **Nickel (NISE10)**: Futures price is 120550, basis is 180, basis rate is 0.15%, historical quantile is 66.45%, and spot price is 120370 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: Futures price and relevant data are presented [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Futures price is 81700, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Futures price is 9350, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Futures price is 781.1, basis is - 4.3, basis rate is - 0.55%, historical quantile is 9.20%, and spot price is 776.8 [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Futures price is 9354.0, basis is - 43.0, basis rate is - 0.46%, historical quantile is 10.50%, and spot price is 9311.0 [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Futures price is 3000, basis is 81, basis rate is 2.63%, historical quantile is 22.60%, and spot price is 3081 [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: Futures price is 8456.0, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 9500.0, basis is - 20, basis rate is - 0.21%, historical quantile is 12.90%, and spot price is 9480 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2526.0, basis is 44, basis rate is 1.74%, historical quantile is 52.80%, and spot price is 2570 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Futures price is 9821.0, basis is 209, basis rate is 2.13%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and spot price is 10030 [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: Futures price is 2158.0, basis is 102, basis rate is 4.73%, historical quantile is 90.30%, and spot price is 2260 [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Futures price is 2475.0, basis is 185, basis rate is 7.47%, historical quantile is 83.90%, and spot price is 2660 [1]. - **Live Hogs (H2511)**: Futures price and relevant data are presented [1]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: Futures price is 3270, basis is 257, basis rate is 8.53%, historical quantile is 52.70%, and spot price is 3013 [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 14100.0, basis is 1135, basis rate is 8.05%, historical quantile is 76.70%, and spot price is 15235 [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5632.0, basis is 398, basis rate is 7.07%, historical quantile is 39.20%, and spot price is 6030 [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Futures price is 8600, basis is 476, basis rate is 5.86%, historical quantile is 73.90%, and spot price is 8124 [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Futures price is 11410.0, basis is - 3110, basis rate is - 27.26%, historical quantile is 4.90%, and spot price is 8300 [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Futures price is 6994.0, basis is 103.4, basis rate is 1.48%, historical quantile is 54.60%, and spot price is 7097.4 [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4870.0, basis is - 10, basis rate is - 0.21%, historical quantile is 48.60%, and spot price is 4860 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 4490.0, basis is 55, basis rate is 1.22%, historical quantile is 80.20%, and spot price is 4545 [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: Futures price and relevant data are presented [1]. - **Styrene (EB2510)**: Futures price is 7257.0, basis is 68, basis rate is 0.94%, historical quantile is 41.70%, and spot price is 7325 [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2395.0, basis is - 122.5, basis rate is - 5.11%, historical quantile is 7.50%, and spot price is 2272.5 [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: Futures price is 1737.0, basis is - 37, basis rate is - 2.13%, historical quantile is 5.10%, and spot price is 1700 [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 7402.0, basis is - 77, basis rate is - 1.04%, historical quantile is 5.70%, and spot price is 7325 [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 7055.0, basis is 9, basis rate is 0.13%, historical quantile is 24.60%, and spot price is 7046 [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4999.0, basis is - 239, basis rate is - 4.78%, historical quantile is 20.20%, and spot price is 4760 [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2703.0, basis is - 15.5, basis rate is - 0.57%, historical quantile is 45.80%, and spot price is 2687.5 [1]. - **LPG (PG2510)**: Futures price is 4435.0, basis is 123, basis rate is 2.77%, historical quantile is 37.80%, and spot price is 4558 [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: Futures price is 3523.0, basis is 17, basis rate is 0.48%, historical quantile is 55.90%, and spot price is 3540 [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: Futures price is 11845.0, basis is 255, basis rate is 2.15%, historical quantile is 56.60%, and spot price is 12100 [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price and relevant data are presented [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1311.0, basis is - 106, basis rate is - 8.80%, historical quantile is 5.88%, and spot price is 1205 [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 14950.0, basis is - 935, basis rate is - 6.25%, historical quantile is 34.58%, and spot price is 15885 [1]. Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: Futures price is 4449.0, basis is - 3.6, basis rate is - 0.08%, historical quantile is 52.20%, and spot price is 4452.6 [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Futures price and relevant data are presented [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Futures price is 6964.1, basis is - 47.7, basis rate is - 0.69%, historical quantile is 21.00%, and spot price is 6916.4 [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Futures price is 7415.4, basis is - 61.1, basis rate is - 0.82%, historical quantile is 70.60%, and spot price is 7476.5 [1]. - **2 - year Bond (TS2512)**: Futures price is 102.38, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. - **5 - year Bond (TF2512)**: Futures price is 105.52, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. - **10 - year Bond (T2512)**: Futures price is 107.94, basis and other relevant data are provided [1]. - **30 - year Bond (TL2512)**: Futures price is 117.12, basis and other relevant data are provided [1].
广发期货《金融》日报-20250825
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 15:24
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on August 25, 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **IF Spreads**: The current - to - next - month spread is - 13.00, down 0.60 from the previous day; the far - month to current - month spread is 5.20, up 0.20 [1] - **IH Spreads**: The current - to - next - month spread is 2.20, down 6.20 from the previous day; the far - month to current - month spread is 34.80, down 242.60 [1] - **IC Spreads**: The current - to - next - month spread is - 46.80, down 1.00 from the previous day; the far - month to current - month spread is - 312.60, up 19.50 [1] - **IM Spreads**: The current - to - next - month spread is - 109.20, up 1.60 from the previous day; the far - month to current - month spread is - 265.80, up 2.20 [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 is 2.3297, down 0.0126 from the previous day; the ratio of CSI 1000 to SSE 300 is 1.6818, down 0.0097 [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads and cross - variety spreads on August 25, 2025 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **TS Spreads**: The basis is 1.1805, up 0.0273 from the previous day; the current - to - next - season spread is - 0.0040, up 0.0180 [2] - **TF Spreads**: The basis is 1.2096, up 0.1018 from the previous day; the current - to - next - season spread is 0.1050, up 0.0550 [2] - **T Spreads**: The basis is 0.8328, up 0.5664 from the previous day; the current - to - next - season spread is 0.2550, up 0.1300 [2] - **TL Spreads**: The basis is 0.5625, up 1.0072 from the previous day; the current - to - next - season spread is 0.5100, up 0.0500 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between TS and TF is - 3.0520, up 0.0720 from the previous day; the spread between TF and T is - 2.2900, up 0.2600 [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on August 25, 2025 [10] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the previous day; the AG2510 contract closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.33% [10] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 3417.20 US dollars/ounce, up 1.00%; the COMEX silver main contract closed at 38.88, up 2.05% [10] - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3371.24 US dollars/ounce, up 0.97%; London silver was at 38.89, up 2.01% [10] - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 1.77, up 1.69 from the previous day; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 10, up 8 [10] - **Ratios**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 87.89, down 1.03% from the previous day; the ratio of SHFE gold to silver is 84.14, down 0.55% [10] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.26%, down 1.6%; the US dollar index is 97.72, down 0.94% [10] - **Inventory and Positions**: The SHFE gold inventory is 37455 kilograms, up 2.22%; the SHFE silver inventory is 1109123, down 0.53% [10] Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Shows spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on August 25, 2025 [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Spot Quotes**: The Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate of MAERSK is 2273 US dollars/FEU, down 3.28% from the previous day; that of CMA CGM is 2464, down 0.61% [11] - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2180.17, down 2.47% from August 11; the SCFIS (US West route) is 1106.29, up 2.23% [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 futures price is 1465.0, down 3.17% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract is 750.2, down 1.99% [11] - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3293.04 FTEU, unchanged; the port on - time rate in Shanghai is 32.58%, down 5.76% [11] Report 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic data and information release schedules on August 25, 2025 [12] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Overseas Data/Information**: The US will release USDA export inspection and crop growth data; HAD will release Brazilian secex reports [12] - **Domestic Data/Information**: For manganese silicon, data on global manganese ore shipments, arrivals, and port inventories will be released; for crude oil, Shandong local refinery crude oil arrivals will be released at 14:00 [12]
《金融》日报-20250814
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide various data on different financial products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price and Spread Data**: On August 14, 2025, the latest prices and spreads of various stock index futures (IH, IC, IM) were reported, including price differences between current and future contracts, and their historical percentile rankings. For example, the IH current - futures spread was 5.82, with a change of 86.90% and a historical percentile of 3.23 and 84.40% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Price and Spread Data**: On August 14, 2025, data on treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) were presented, including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For instance, the T basis was 1.6133, with a change of - 0.0139 and a historical percentile of 55.20% [2]. Precious Metals - **Price and Related Data**: On August 14, 2025, domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions data of precious metals (gold and silver) were reported. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 777.72 yuan/gram on August 13, up 1.68 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day [6]. Container Shipping - **Price and Fundamental Data**: On August 14, 2025, data on container shipping were provided, including spot quotes, freight indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data. For example, the Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate of MAERSK increased by 6.08% to 2651 US dollars/FEU on August 13 compared to the previous day [8]. Data and Information - **Overseas and Domestic Data**: Overseas data include economic indicators such as GDP, PMI, and consumer confidence indices of the eurozone and the US, as well as agricultural and energy - related data. Domestic data cover various industries such as steel, energy, and chemicals, including production, inventory, and utilization rate data [11].
《金融》日报-20250813
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the reports Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Spread Report - **Stock Index Futures** - IC期现价差最新值为 -75.56,较前一日变化 17.40,历史 1 年分位数 17.60%,全历史分位数 7.00% [1] - IM期现价差最新值为 -80.01,较前一日变化 12.73,历史 1 年分位数 90.00%,全历史分位数 18.00% [1] - IF跨期价差、IH跨期价差、IN跨期价差等各合约价差有不同程度变化及分位数情况 [1] - 跨品种比值如 IC/IF 为 1.5353,较前一日变化 0.0008,历史 1 年分位数 99.50%,全历史分位数 82.90% 等 [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - TS基差最新值为 1.1662,较前一日变化 0.0396,上市以来百分位数 9.10% [2] - TF基差最新值为 1.4695,较前一日变化 0.0230,上市以来百分位数 36.90% [2] - TL基差最新值为 2.5075,较前一日变化 0.0575,上市以来百分位数 86.00% [2] - 各品种跨期价差和跨品种价差有不同程度变化及分位数情况 [2] Precious Metals Report - **Domestic Futures** - AU2510合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 776.04 元/克,较前一日跌 3.44 元,跌幅 0.44% [5] - AG2510合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 9187 元/千克,较前一日跌 23 元,跌幅 0.25% [5] - **Foreign Futures** - COMEX黄金主力合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 3393.70,较前一日跌 64.50,跌幅 1.87% [5] - COMEX白银主力合约 8 月 12 日收盘价 37.65 美元/盎司,较前一日跌 0.86,跌幅 2.25% [5] - **Spot Prices** - 伦敦金 8 月 12 日价格 3347.64,较前一日涨 5.89,涨幅 0.18% [5] - 伦敦银 8 月 12 日价格 37.89 美元/盎司,较前一日涨 0.31,涨幅 0.81% [5] - **Basis** - 黄金 TD - 沪金主力现值 -2.87,较前值涨 0.75,历史 1 年分位数 29.70% [5] - 白银 TD - 沪银主力现值 -24,较前值涨 13,历史 1 年分位数 47.70% [5] - **Price Ratios** - COMEX 金/银现值 90.15,较前一日涨 0.35,涨幅 0.39% [5] - 上期所金/银现值 84.47,较前一日跌 0.16,跌幅 0.19% [5] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates** - 10 年期美债收益率现值 4.29,较前值涨 0.02,涨幅 0.5% [5] - 2 年期美债收益率现值 3.72,较前值跌 0.04,跌幅 1.1% [5] - 美元指数现值 98.07,较前值跌 0.43 [5] - 离岸人民币汇率现值 7.1856,较前值跌 0.0107,跌幅 0.44% [5] - **Inventory and Positions** - 上期所黄金库存现值 36045 千克,较前值无变化 [5] - 上期所白银库存现值 1151209,较前值跌 753,跌幅 0.07% [5] - COMEX 黄金库存现值 38617003,较前值无变化 [5] - COMEX 白银库存现值 507041876,较前值涨 600095,涨幅 0.12% [5] Container Shipping Report - **Spot Quotes** - MAERSK马士基 8 月 13 日上海 - 欧洲未来 6 周运价参考 2651 美元/FEU,较前一日涨 152,涨幅 6.08% [6] - CMA 达飞 8 月 13 日运价 3199,较前一日涨 9,涨幅 0.28% [6] - MSC 地中海 8 月 13 日运价 2860,较前一日涨 15,涨幅 0.53% [6] - **Container Shipping Index** - SCFIS (欧洲航线) 8 月 11 日结算价指数 2235.48,较 8 月 4 日跌 62.4,跌幅 2.71% [6] - SCFIS (美西航线) 8 月 11 日结算价指数 1082.14,较 8 月 4 日跌 48.0,跌幅 4.25% [6] - SCFI 综合指数 8 月 8 日 1489.68,较 8 月 1 日跌 61.1,跌幅 3.94% [6] - **Futures Prices and Basis** - EC2602 合约 8 月 12 日价格 1528.0,较前一日涨 10.9,涨幅 0.72% [6] - EC2604 合约 8 月 12 日价格 1350.0,较前一日涨 5.1,涨幅 0.38% [6] - 主力合约 EC2508 8 月 12 日价格 2082.0,较前一日涨 2.0,涨幅 0.10% [6] - 基差(主力) 8 月 12 日 753.4,较前一日跌 47.4,跌幅 5.92% [6] - **Fundamental Data** - 全球集装箱运力供给 8 月 13 日 3282.66 万 TEU,较前一日无变化 [6] - 上海港口准班率 7 月 32.58,较上月跌 1.99,跌幅 5.76% [6] - 上海港口挂靠情况 7 月 310.00 个,较上月跌 14.00,跌幅 4.32% [6] - 月度出口金额 7 月 3217.80 亿美元,较上月跌 34.53,跌幅 1.06% [6] Trading Calendar Report - **Overseas Data/Information** - At 0:00, EIA will release the monthly short - term energy outlook report [7] - At 4:30, the API crude oil inventory (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 8 in the US will be announced [7] - At 22:30, the EIA crude oil inventory (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 8 in the US will be announced [7] - **Domestic Data/Information** - In the evening, the weekly production and sales survey of 523 mines by the Steel Union for coking coal will be carried out [7] - At 14:30, Longzhong Information will release the commercial crude oil inventory (in 10,000 tons) at Chinese ports [7] - In the evening, the production - sales ratio of glass and the inventory at the delivery warehouse of soda ash will be concerned [7]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250812
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].
《金融》日报-20250811
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 08:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present the latest values, changes compared to the previous day, historical percentile rankings of various futures spreads, prices, and related economic indicators across different sectors including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and provide a trading calendar with relevant data and information sources [1][2][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: IC, IM, IF, and IH have different current - spot price spreads and inter - period price spreads. For example, the IC current - spot price spread is - 96.50, up 14.64 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 20% and an all - time percentile of 3.3096 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and IC/IF are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.5405, up 0.0002 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.10% and an all - time percentile of 58.70% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: Different types of treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) have their respective basis values, Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and changes compared to the previous day, as well as historical percentile rankings since listing. For example, the TS basis is 1.2966, up 0.0153 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 12.40% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: There are inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads for different treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices of precious metals (gold and silver) are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 787.80 yuan/gram on August 8, up 2.78 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values between spot and futures, and price ratios between different precious metals are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [6]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Information on interest rates (such as 10 - year US Treasury bond yield), exchange rates (such as the US dollar index), inventory (such as Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory), and positions (such as SPDR Gold ETF holdings) is provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [6]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Spot freight rates from Shanghai to Europe for different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA CGM, etc.) are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe freight rate was 2878 US dollars/FEU on August 11, up 88 US dollars or 3.19% from the previous day [8]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS, SCFI) for different routes (European, US West, US East) are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping contracts (EC2602, EC2510, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), foreign trade indicators (monthly export amount), and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI) are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [8]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events from overseas, such as the MPOB palm oil monthly report, Brazilian secex weekly report, and USDA export inspection and crop growth data in the US, are listed [9]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, including global manganese ore shipping volume, iron ore shipping and arrival data, and SMM electrolytic copper social inventory, are provided [9].
广发期货《金融》日报-20250731
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:14
Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core View - Presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of various spread indicators for stock index futures including IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 31, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF's futures - spot spread is -14.84, with a 32.30% change from the previous day and a 28.70% historical 1 - year quantile; IH's is 0.65, IC's is -99.29, and IM's is -114.28 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report on Bond Futures Spread Core View - Displays the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of indicators like IRR, basis, inter - delivery spread, and cross - variety spread for bond futures on July 31, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: For example, the IRR of a certain bond on July 30, 2025, is 1.5292, with a 0.0063 change from the previous day and a 21.20% historical quantile [2]. - **Basis**: TF's basis on July 30, 2025, is 0.0007, T's is 1.4179, etc. [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: TS, TF, T, and TL's inter - delivery spreads are presented, including their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core View - Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on July 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic AU2510 contract closed at 773.78 yuan/gram on July 30, 2025, with a 0.30% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3327.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.08% [4]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 3275.05 dollars/ounce on July 30, 2025, down 1.53%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 769.48 yuan/gram, up 0.30% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.30, with a -0.05 change and an 8.40% historical 1 - year quantile [4]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 89.52, up 3.34% [4]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.9% [4]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold increased by 7.03% to 33462 [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Core View - Analyzes the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 31, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quote**: The 6 - week future freight reference from Shanghai to Europe for MAERSK is 3003 dollars/FEU on July 31, 2025, down 0.06% [6]. - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 2316.56 on July 28, 2025, down 3.50% from July 21 [6]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1532.0 points on July 30, 2025, up 0.70%; the basis of the main contract is 802.4, down 1.15% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3273.16 FTEU on July 31, 2025; the port punctuality rate in Shanghai is 34.57, down 18.66% [6]. Report on Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events on July 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Info**: At 2:00, the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision (upper limit) and the FOMC released the interest rate resolution; at 17:00, the eurozone announced the June unemployment rate [7]. - **Domestic Data/Info**: At 9:30, China announced the July official manufacturing PMI; at 15:00, SMM announced the total social inventory of electrolytic copper [7].