Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter sales were $284 million, down 17% year-over-year due to repositioning actions in Performance Chemicals and weak industrial demand [10] - Adjusted gross profit increased by 10% to $129 million, with gross margin improving over 1,000 basis points [10] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by $17 million, with margins improving from 21.9% to 32.1%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin improvement [11][12] - Free cash flow improved by $44 million year-over-year to $15 million, reflecting benefits from repositioning actions [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Performance Materials saw higher sales due to favorable regional and product mix, with EBITDA margins remaining near 54% [13][15] - Advanced Polymer Technologies (APT) experienced lower overall sales, but EBITDA increased by $3 million, with margins rising to 29.6% [19] - Performance Chemicals sales decreased by 35% primarily due to repositioning actions, but segment EBITDA showed year-over-year improvement of $10 million [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American auto production is expected to decline by approximately 10% year-over-year, impacting guidance for the Performance Materials segment [8][15] - Volume growth was observed in China due to government incentives driving higher vehicle sales, while North American volumes were down year-over-year [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution of its strategy to optimize the portfolio and drive business performance, aiming to create significant value for shareholders [8][24] - The strategic review of Industrial Specialties and the North Charleston refinery is progressing well, with expectations to communicate a path forward before the end of the year [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is actively monitoring developments related to tariffs and macro demand conditions, believing the direct impact on the business will be minimal [7][24] - Despite headwinds, the company is confident in its ability to deliver strong profitability in 2025 and beyond [8][24] Other Important Information - The company has introduced a new President for APT, who brings over 25 years of experience in transforming business profitability [20] - The average age of automobiles in the U.S. is at an all-time high, suggesting a future need for replacements [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing in Performance Materials business - Management indicated that they have a strong position and are seeing encouraging performance, with pricing being a lever they can pull if needed [29][30][32] Question: Update on strategic review of Industrial Specialties - The process is progressing well with a broad degree of interest, and management is being deliberate in their approach [34][36] Question: Strategic and operational priorities in a volatile environment - The focus remains on disciplined execution, optimizing business performance, and reducing leverage [40][41] Question: Cash flow forecast amidst potential auto production decline - Management is confident in free cash flow generation even in a declining sales environment due to effective working capital management [43][44] Question: Impact of EV slowdown on forecasts - While EVs are slowing down, management remains optimistic about the adoption of new technologies and their investment in Nexeon [47][48][50] Question: Filtration market capacity for potential volume shifts - The filtration market is sizable and can absorb underutilized capacity, although it is a lower margin market compared to auto [53][54] Question: Long-term leverage goals - The long-term target for leverage remains between 2 to 2.5 times [58]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but showed significant growth in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite revenue challenges [2][4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.665 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 538 million, an increase of 24.80% year-on-year [2]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.516 billion, down 9.94% year-on-year, while net profit was 64 million, up 28.08% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.625 billion, a slight increase of 0.42% year-on-year, with net profit rising to 133 million, up 48.46% year-on-year [2]. Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in 2024 was 9.836 billion, 71 million, and 758 million respectively, with liquid milk showing a growth of 0.83% [3]. - The e-commerce channel saw a significant revenue increase of 31.93% in 2024, contributing 1.161 billion to total revenue [3]. - Regional performance varied, with the Southwest region declining by 6.51%, while the Other region grew by 18.13% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.36%, with Q1 2025 showing a gross margin of 29.50%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.12 percentage points [4]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 5.08%, up 1.64 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - Management and sales expense ratios showed mixed trends, with sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 at 17.01%, up from Q4 2024 [4].

毛利率有所提升，25Q1 盈利能力进一步增强。毛利率方面，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司毛利率分别为 28.36%/25.99%/29.50%，25Q1 同比+0.12pcts，环比+3.51pcts。主要系原奶价格下滑叠加产品结构优 化，公司毛利率进一步提升。 费用端，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 销售费用率分别为15.56%/14.68%/ 17.01%，25Q1 同比-0.07pcts，环比 +2.33pcts。2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 管理费用率分别为3.57%/1.22%/3.54%，25Q1 同比-1.57pcts，环比 +2.31pcts。综合来看，2024全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司归母净利率分别为5.04%/2.54%/5.08%，25Q1 同比 +1.64pcts，环比+2.53pcts，盈利能力有所增强。子公司中，四川乳业/昆明雪兰/寰美乳业/青岛琴牌2024 年净利润率分别为7.13%/4.60%/6.37%/6.77%，同比-1.21/-0.23/-2.32/+1.35pcts，主要系部分子公司以常 温业务为主，受终端竞争加剧影响，利润端短期承压。25Q1 ...

盈利能力表现靓丽，费用管控优异。2025Q1 公司毛利率32.6%（同比+2.1pct），归母净利率19.7%（同 比+2.1pct）；费用端方面，Q1 期间费用率为9.4%（同比-0.6pct），其中销售/研发/管理/财务费用率分 别为4.5%/2.3%/3.3%/-0.7%（同比分别-0.7pct/-0.4pct/-0.8pct/+1.4pct）。 事件：公司发布2024 年报&2025 一季报。2024 年公司实现收入 29.52 亿元（同比+19.9%），归母净利 润5.11 亿元（同比+18.6%），扣非归母净利润5.05 亿元（同比+20.6%）；单Q4 收入为6.93 亿元（同比 +27.1%），归母净利润1.18 亿元（同比+48.9%），扣非归母净利润1.17 亿元（同比+51.6%）。25Q1 收 入为7.93 亿元（同比+15.3%），归母净利润1.56 亿元（同比+28.7%），扣非归母净利润1.55 亿元（同 比+32.0%）。我们预计Q1受益于内部降本、原材料价格降价、美国高毛利业务占比提高等因素，业绩 表现靓丽。根据AMI Consulting，自 2011 年开始共创人造草坪销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in profitability, supported by a diversified product portfolio and optimized channel matrix [4][7] - The company aims for revenue and profit targets of 1190 billion and 126 billion respectively for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1157.8 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84.53 billion, down 18.9% year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 330.2 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 48.74 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The company plans a dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 92%, alongside a share buyback that accounts for 100.4% of net profit [4] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 13.1%, while milk powder and cold drinks grew by 8.7% and 23.7% respectively [5] - For Q1 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.1%, milk powder increased by 18.6%, and cold drinks fell by 5.3% [5] - The company maintained its leading market share in liquid milk and saw growth in low-temperature milk [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 30.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -9.1% due to significant asset impairment losses [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 37.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by business structure optimization [6] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for steady growth in 2025, with expectations of improved supply and demand dynamics due to consumption promotion policies [7] - The reduction of impairment losses related to the acquisition of Aoyou is expected to enhance profitability significantly [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 16.3, and 15.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its ready-to-drink cocktail business, with a projected recovery in growth for 2025. The whisky business has entered the product sales phase, which is expected to be a significant highlight for 2025 [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on the latest performance and increased expectations for whisky business profitability, projecting EPS of 0.77, 1.00, and 1.29 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - 2024 projected revenue is 30.48 billion, with a decline of 6.61% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 7.19 billion, down 11.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - For 2025 Q1, revenue is estimated at 740 million, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 180 million, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 23.00% for 2025, 23.45% for 2026, and 20.43% for 2027 [2][8]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated revenue of around 650 million for Q1 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 69.67% in 2024 to 73.08% by 2027 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.59% in 2024 to 24.37% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.87 in 2024 to 20.16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 6.27 in 2024 to 4.05 in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segment Insights Ready-to-Drink Cocktails - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment generated 26.8 billion in revenue for 2024, showing a slight decline but with a stable development outlook due to consumer loyalty and ongoing product updates [6]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment has launched new products and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025, with a strong product pipeline and marketing strategy [6].

2025 年 04 月 29 日 公司点评 买入/首次 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 48.47/48.47 总市值/流通(亿元) 677.17/677.17 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 18.65/11.86 相关研究报告 中金黄金(600489) 证券分析师：刘强 电话： E-MAIL：liuqiang@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522080001 证券分析师：梁必果 电话： E-MAIL：liangbg@tpyzq.com 昨收盘:13.97 事件：2025 年 4 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。 2024 年公司实现收入 655.56 亿元，同比+7.01%；归母净利润 33.86 亿 元，同比+13.71%；扣非净利润 35.32 亿元，同比+18.25%。2025 年一季 度，公司实现收入 148.59 亿元，同比+12.88%，环比-23.84%；归母净利 润 10.38 亿元，同比+32.65%，环比+39.79%；扣非净利润 12.68 亿元，同 比+71.13%，环比+38.76%。 业绩显著增长，盈利能力持续提升 ◼ 走势 ...

Core Viewpoint - AVIC Xifei reported a slight decline in revenue but an improvement in profitability for Q1 2025, indicating a mixed financial performance [2][6]. Group 1: Operating Overview - The total operating revenue for AVIC Xifei in Q1 2025 was 8.438 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 289 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.97% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 298 million yuan, up 7.45% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin reached 8.24%, an increase of 16.17% year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.42%, up 6.18% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Financial Health - The company's cash and cash equivalents amounted to 14.118 billion yuan, representing a growth of 68.30% year-on-year, indicating strong short-term solvency [3]. - The ratio of cash to current liabilities was only 73.77%, suggesting a need for ongoing monitoring of cash flow [3]. Group 3: Accounts Receivable Management - As of the end of Q1 2025, accounts receivable stood at 16.309 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.83% year-on-year [4]. - Despite the reduction in absolute value, the ratio of accounts receivable to profit was still high at 1593.55%, indicating potential pressure in receivables collection [4]. Group 4: Cost Control - The total operating expenses (selling, administrative, and financial expenses) were 263 million yuan, accounting for 3.12% of operating revenue, which is an increase of 63.03% year-on-year [5]. - This increase suggests that the company faces challenges in cost control and needs to optimize its expense structure to enhance operational efficiency [5]. Group 5: Investor Returns - Since its listing, AVIC Xifei has raised a total of 13.665 billion yuan and distributed a total of 3.458 billion yuan in dividends, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 0.25 [6]. - This ratio reflects the company's active financing activities in the capital market while maintaining a certain level of shareholder returns [6].

Revenue and Profit - The company achieved total revenue of 290 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 16.59% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline in revenue, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51.79 million yuan, an increase of 48.37% year-on-year; the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 49.07 million yuan, up 41.95% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control and improved operational efficiency [1] Profitability - The company's profitability significantly improved, with a gross margin of 63.68%, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year; the net profit margin was 18.11%, a substantial increase of 75.73% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share were 0.13 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.44%, demonstrating strong profitability [2] Cost Control - Total expenditures on sales, management, and financial expenses amounted to 97.56 million yuan, with the proportion of these expenses to revenue decreasing from 41.20% in the same period last year to 33.62%, a reduction of 18.40 percentage points, highlighting the company's efforts in cost control [3] Cash Flow and Asset Status - Operating cash flow per share was 0.14 yuan, a significant increase of 272.12% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow situation from operating activities [4] - The cash balance was 1.714 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, but still at a healthy level; interest-bearing debt decreased from 4.5736 million yuan to 3.7439 million yuan, a decline of 18.14% [4] Accounts Receivable and Solvency - The company's accounts receivable stood at 233 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%, but the ratio of accounts receivable to profit was as high as 104.35%, necessitating ongoing attention to collection [5] - Despite this, the overall cash asset situation remains healthy, indicating good solvency [5] Business Model and Future Development - The company's performance is primarily driven by marketing, and there is a need to further explore the sustainability of this growth model and optimize accounts receivable management to ensure the safety and stability of the cash flow [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a significant increase in net profit of 337.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 0.6 billion yuan despite a slight decline in revenue [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a sales recovery, driven by strong performance of new products and government subsidy policies, particularly in the DLP and 3LCD product segments [1] - The launch of the new Play6 series projectors in March 2025, with competitive pricing and superior specifications, is expected to enhance the company's market position [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 34%, up by 6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increasing proportion of high-margin overseas business [2] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.62 billion, 4.24 billion, and 4.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 201.6%, 17.0%, and 15.7% [2][8] Market and Product Insights - The domestic online sales of M1-M2 projectors in 2025 reached 636,000 units with a sales revenue of 0.98 billion yuan, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [1] - The new Play6 series projectors are priced competitively at 1,799 yuan and 1,599 yuan after subsidies, with features such as 600 CVIA lumens brightness and a built-in battery for 2.5 hours of continuous video playback [1]