Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On August 12, the current-month contracts of the four major index futures all rose. The overall trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The overall open interest of all four major index futures decreased [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The market is in a situation of global resonance, oscillating with a slight upward bias [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 300 was 4143.83, up 0.52%. Among the futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4144.4, up 0.52%, with a basis of 0.57; IF2509 closed at 4131.2, up 0.51%, with a basis of -12.63; IF2512 closed at 4102, up 0.51%, with a basis of -41.83; IF2603 closed at 4069.6, up 0.51%, with a basis of -74.23. The total trading volume decreased by 1165 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 8595 lots [1][2]. - **IH Series**: The closing price of the underlying SSE 50 was 2807.01, up 0.61%. Among the futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2809.8, up 0.62%, with a basis of 2.79; IH2509 closed at 2809.6, up 0.61%, with a basis of 2.59; IH2512 closed at 2811.4, up 0.64%, with a basis of 4.39; IH2603 closed at 2811, up 0.64%, with a basis of 3.99. The total trading volume increased by 8277 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 1720 lots [1][2]. - **IC Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 500 was 6418.16, up 0.41%. Among the futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6409.2, up 0.52%, with a basis of -8.96; IC2509 closed at 6342.6, up 0.52%, with a basis of -75.56; IC2512 closed at 6190, up 0.58%, with a basis of -228.16; IC2603 closed at 6051.6, up 0.54%, with a basis of -366.56. The total trading volume decreased by 14462 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 9999 lots [1][2]. - **IM Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 1000 was 6963.61, up 0.28%. Among the futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6954.2, up 0.31%, with a basis of -9.41; IM2509 closed at 6883.6, up 0.31%, with a basis of -80.01; IM2512 closed at 6694.2, up 0.30%, with a basis of -269.41; IM2603 closed at 6512, up 0.30%, with a basis of -451.61. The total trading volume decreased by 38939 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 20490 lots [1][2]. 2. Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions decreased by 5297 lots, with a net change of -8242 lots; short positions decreased by 5061 lots, with a net change of -7997 lots. For IF2509, long positions decreased by 2979 lots, and short positions decreased by 2507 lots. For IF2512, long positions increased by 344 lots, and short positions decreased by 254 lots. For IF2603, long positions decreased by 310 lots, and short positions decreased by 175 lots [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long positions decreased by 1110 lots, with a net change of -1400 lots; short positions decreased by 1003 lots, with a net change of -1056 lots. For IH2509, long positions increased by 76 lots, and short positions increased by 416 lots. For IH2512, long positions decreased by 366 lots, and short positions decreased by 469 lots. The data for IH2603 was not announced [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions decreased by 4194 lots, with a net change of -9005 lots; short positions decreased by 4730 lots, with a net change of -8928 lots. For IC2509, long positions decreased by 2972 lots, and short positions decreased by 2715 lots. For IC2512, long positions decreased by 1306 lots, and short positions decreased by 1069 lots. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 533 lots, and short positions decreased by 414 lots [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 8911 lots, with a net change of -16351 lots; short positions decreased by 9453 lots, with a net change of -17297 lots. For IM2509, long positions decreased by 5810 lots, and short positions decreased by 6384 lots. For IM2512, long positions decreased by 1630 lots, and short positions decreased by 1460 lots. The data for IM2603 was not announced [5]. 3. Important Drivers - **Policy News**: China and the US issued the Joint Statement of the China-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The three departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, and eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy the interest subsidy policy [6]. - **Global Market Conditions**: Inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The Nasdaq and S&P reached new highs, Ethereum rose 9%, and the Russell small-cap index soared 3%. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell nearly 3 basis points, the US dollar fell 0.47%, gold fluctuated widely around $3350, and crude oil closed lower [6]. - **A-share Market**: The A-share market continued its slow-bull pattern. The STAR 50 led the rise, and the ChiNext Index broke through its previous high. More than 3100 stocks closed lower, and market divergence intensified before reaching new highs [6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3656.85, just 18 points away from the critical level of 3674, raising questions about when and how this level will be breached [1] - Historical patterns show that significant market expectations often drive breakthroughs at key levels, as seen in previous years [1][2] - The current market lacks a unified capital force, with over 60 billion net outflow from stock ETFs in the past month, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [5][7] Group 2 - Recent events, such as the potential for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the shutdown of a lithium mine by CATL, are seen as positive influences on the market [9] - The market atmosphere remains optimistic, but without a significant event to unify capital, the index may experience fluctuations around the 3674 level [9] - The structure of the CSI 1000 index shows a strong upward trend, while the Shanghai Composite Index is still in a consolidation phase, indicating potential challenges for sustained upward movement [12]

Group 1 - The company, Dongxin Peace, is engaged in multiple concepts including stablecoins, blockchain, and smart cards, and has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Shutu Blockchain Research Institute to promote Web3.0-based stablecoin cross-border payment cooperation and offshore RMB issuance applications in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - The company's main business focuses on smart cards and digital identity security, and it is a state-owned enterprise ultimately controlled by China Electronics Technology Group Corporation [2] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation came into effect in August, with the Monetary Authority opening up license applications, and banks like Bank of China Hong Kong and Standard Chartered expected to be among the first to receive licenses [2] Group 2 - A total of 44 securities firms have upgraded their virtual asset trading licenses to engage in stablecoin trading and asset tokenization, with the first batch of licenses expected to be limited to 2-3, and the application window closing on September 30 [2] - It is noted that the upcoming Apple iPhone 17 series will fully transition to eSIM technology, eliminating the physical SIM card slot, which is expected to benefit companies such as Dongxin Peace, Cheng Tian Wei Ye, Heng Bao Shares, and Xin Heng Hui [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) has seen a year-to-date increase of 49.50% since its low on April 10, 2025, closing at 1.64 yuan as of August 4, 2025 [1] - The ETF's trading volume reached 8.82 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 7.04%, and the average daily trading volume over the past week was 16.99 billion yuan [1] - The current size of the ETF is 12.516 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 14.25 billion yuan over the last five trading days, and over 72 billion yuan in net inflows in the past month [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index (931024) tracks up to 50 listed companies in the non-bank financial sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 78.19% of the index [2] - Major stocks in the index include China Ping An, AIA, and Hong Kong Exchanges, each representing over 14% of the index [2] - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that positive policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, are expected to boost market sentiment and support the long-term value growth of quality listed companies [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan's report anticipates that the performance of listed brokerage firms in the first half of the year will exceed expectations, with increased market financing demand [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF is the first and only ETF tracking the non-bank index, with over 60% of its holdings in the insurance sector [3] - The ETF reflects the overall performance of non-bank financial theme listed companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect range [3]

Group 1 - The majority of stablecoin-related stocks experienced declines in the afternoon trading session, with notable drops including Yunfeng Financial down 7.24% to HKD 2.82, Guotai Junan International down 5.43% to HKD 5.4, and OSL Group down 1.83% to HKD 14.49 [1] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation officially came into effect on August 1, requiring any entity issuing fiat-backed stablecoins in Hong Kong to apply for a license from the Financial Management Commissioner [1] - Zheshang Securities highlighted that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes three core requirements for licensing: strict compliance review, specificity, and sustainability, with the first licenses expected to be issued in early 2026, later than market expectations [1] Group 2 - Currently, the active stablecoins in Hong Kong are primarily USD-backed, such as USDT and USDC, and failure to obtain a license post-transition period will prevent these stablecoins from operating on compliant VATP exchanges in Hong Kong [2] - Citigroup projects the median market size for stablecoins in Hong Kong to be USD 16 billion, with potential fluctuations of USD 8 billion depending on various factors, including monetary expansion and increased external demand for Hong Kong stablecoins [2]

智通财经APP获悉，稳定币概念股午后多数下跌，截至发稿，云锋金融(00376)跌7.24%，报2.82港元； 国泰君安国际(01788)跌5.43%，报5.4港元；耀才证券金融(01428)跌2.53%，报11.54港元；OSL集团 (00863)跌1.83%，报14.49港元。 浙商证券还指出，当前活跃于中国香港的稳定币多属于美元稳定币，如USDT或USDC。如果过渡期结 束后相关发行商未取得牌照，也就意味着这些美元稳定币将无法在香港的合规VATP交易所运营。此 外，花旗表示，预计香港稳定币市场规模中位数为160亿美元(上下浮动80亿美元，视不同工具而定)， 上行风险来自货币总量扩张、对香港稳定币的外部需求增加及链上活动激增。 消息面上，8月1日，香港《稳定币条例草案》正式生效。《稳定币条例》实施后，任何人如在业务过程 中在香港发行法币稳定币，或在香港或以外发行宣称锚定港元价值的法币稳定币，必须向金融管理专员 申领牌照。浙商证券认为，中国香港金管局强调发牌需严格审核合规性、具体性及可持续性三大核心要 求。其中，在可持续性方面，需证明具备长期运营的财力与技术资源。由于审核流程复杂，且需确保申 请机构完全达标， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's stablecoin concept stocks continue to experience a downturn, with Jin Yong Investment falling over 7% [1] - Victory Securities, Zhong An Online, and Yaocai Securities Financial have all dropped more than 4% [1] - Yunfeng Financial, Guotai Junan International, and Guofu Quantum have seen declines exceeding 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" marks a significant milestone for the sustainable development of the stablecoin and digital asset ecosystem in Hong Kong, with a comprehensive regulatory framework now in place for fiat-backed stablecoins [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Stablecoin Regulation" officially came into effect on August 1, establishing clear rules for the issuance and regulation of stablecoins, transitioning them from an unregulated state to mainstream financial markets [6]. - The regulation requires any institution issuing or promoting fiat-backed stablecoins in Hong Kong to operate under a license, with severe penalties for non-compliance [6]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has set high entry barriers for license applicants, including a minimum paid-up capital of HKD 25 million and sufficient liquid assets, ensuring a robust foundation for the stablecoin industry [6][7]. Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Sentiment - Following the announcement of the regulation, there has been a surge in investment interest, with stablecoin-related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing significant price increases, some doubling in value [3][11]. - The stablecoin index has risen by 60% year-to-date, reflecting strong market enthusiasm despite the fact that many companies are still in the early stages of developing stablecoin-related businesses [3][11]. - However, on the day the regulation was enacted, many stablecoin concept stocks saw a decline, indicating potential volatility and market correction [3][17]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - The stablecoin market has grown significantly, with a total market capitalization exceeding USD 260 billion, and projections suggest it could reach USD 3.7 trillion by 2030 [5]. - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are concerns about the over-conceptualization and bubble-like tendencies in the stablecoin market, as many companies lack practical applications and risk management capabilities [14][15]. - The HKMA has indicated that only a limited number of licenses will be issued initially, which may lead to disappointment among many applicants [9][15]. Group 4: Industry Developments and Innovations - The HKMA plans to launch a "Stablecoin Issuer Sandbox" in March 2024, allowing participants to demonstrate viable stablecoin issuance processes and robust internal controls [7]. - Major companies like Ant Group and JD.com are expected to apply for stablecoin licenses, leveraging their technological expertise and existing applications to enhance cross-border payment efficiency [8][9]. - The market has seen a trend where companies announcing intentions to explore stablecoin business have experienced significant stock price increases, indicating a speculative environment [14].

港股8月开局不利，三大指数继续承压走低，尾盘跌幅有所扩大。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.07%或265.52 点，报24507.81点，大市交投缩减，全日成交额为2546.74亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.88%，报8804.42 点；恒生科技指数跌1.02%，报5397.4点。全周来看，恒指累跌3.47%，国指累跌3.78%，恒科指累跌 4.94%。 东吴证券指出，往后看，市场担心海外风险上行。一是，美元资产继续上涨，或会导致全球资金减少对 中国资产的关注；二是，对等关税截止日临近，市场预期关税博弈更偏向税率"缓"+"降"。交银国际认 为，港股市场当前流动性状态仍较为充裕，估值水平保持合理，适度的市场拥挤度也为投资者提供了较 为理想的配置窗口。 蓝筹股表现 5.71港元。 1.个别快递股逆市走高。截至收盘，中通快递-W(02057)涨7.44%，报163.2港元；极兔速递-W(01519)涨 2.52%，报10.58港元。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快 件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日义乌邮管局 已率先 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant downturn, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.07% to close at 24,507.81, marking its fourth consecutive decline [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.02%, recording a seven-day losing streak, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.88% [1][2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with major financial stocks (banks, insurance, brokerage) and state-owned enterprises generally underperforming [2] - The biotechnology sector faced widespread declines, particularly in innovative drug concepts, while oil stocks also fell [2] - Conversely, paper stocks performed well, driven by rising price expectations amid anti-involution policies, and logistics stocks were notably active throughout the day [2][8] Notable Stock Movements - Key technology stocks such as Kuaishou, Bilibili, Tencent, and NetEase saw declines of over 2%, with Kuaishou dropping more than 3% [4][5] - In the cryptocurrency sector, stocks like Yao Cai Securities and Yunfeng Financial plummeted by over 19% and 16%, respectively, following the implementation of the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation [5][6] - The biotechnology and innovative drug sectors saw significant drops, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Junshi Biosciences declining over 3% due to concerns over drug pricing regulations in the U.S. [6][7] Emerging Trends - The logistics sector showed strong performance, with companies like Yueyun Transportation and ZTO Express rising by over 8% and 7%, respectively, as expectations for price increases in the express delivery industry grew [8] - Paper stocks also gained traction, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Comprehensive Environmental Group seeing increases of over 3% and 6%, respectively, following the signing of a major project [9] Capital Flows - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 12.207 billion, with significant contributions from both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connect [11] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong stock market may have a growth potential of 10% to 15% over the next 12 months, despite current market corrections [13] - The upcoming mid-year earnings reports are expected to show a significant increase in revenue growth compared to the previous year, although profit growth may moderate [13] - Certain sectors, such as new consumption, technology, and pharmaceuticals, are expected to see improved earnings forecasts, suggesting potential investment opportunities [13]