10月15日，A股三大指数低开高走，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）上涨0.78%，持仓股阳光电 源、宇邦新材、震裕科技涨超3%。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场跟踪创业板新能源指数的规模最大ETF基金，也是同类 产品中且唯一拥有场外联接的基金。创业板新能源指数主要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、 光伏等多个细分领域。创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）弹性最大，涨幅可达20cm；费率最低，管理费 和托管费合计仅为0.2%；规模最大，截至2025年10月14日，规模达10.66亿元；成交额最大，近一月日 均成交8889万元。其储能含量达51%，固态电池含量达30%，契合当下市场热点。（联接A：024419联 接C：024420） 每日经济新闻 消息面，《节能降碳中央预算内投资专项管理办法》印发，其中提到重 ...

Group 1: ETF Performance - The New Energy ETF has seen a turnover rate of 3.23% with a transaction volume of 45.82 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the New Energy ETF's scale has increased by 279 million yuan, indicating significant growth [3] - In the past week, the ETF's shares grew by 299 million shares, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the New Energy ETF is 12.93 million yuan, with a total of 200 million yuan net inflow over the last four trading days [3] - As of October 14, the New Energy ETF's net value has risen by 55.85% over the past six months, ranking 237 out of 3739 index equity funds, placing it in the top 6.34% [3] - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 25.07%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting five months and a maximum increase of 62.44% [3] Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The "Central Budget Investment Special Management Measures for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction" has been issued, supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction projects in key industries such as electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery [3] - The new policy encourages energy conservation and carbon reduction transformations in industrial parks and clusters, as well as in infrastructure such as heating and computing power [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Developments - According to the National Energy Administration, by the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects in China is expected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts, which is approximately 20 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with a growth of over 130% compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The average storage duration is reported to be 2.3 hours, indicating advancements in energy storage capabilities [4] - The implementation of Document No. 136 marks the entry of new energy into a market-oriented trading era, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage [4] Group 4: Stock Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index include CATL, Sungrow Power, EVE Energy, Longi Green Energy, Huayou Cobalt, TBEA, China Nuclear Power, Ganfeng Lithium, Lead Intelligent, and Three Gorges Energy, collectively accounting for 45.2% of the index [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After high-level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend [2] - In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase [2] - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2] - In the fourth quarter, considering the potential intensification of growth - stabilizing policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.19%. Trading volumes varied, and changes in open interest showed a mixed pattern, with some decreasing and some increasing [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts had minor changes, with small increases or decreases. Trading volumes and open - interest changes also showed different trends [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with declines of up to - 2.99%. Trading volumes were relatively large, and open - interest changes were mixed [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines between - 1.78% and - 2.18%. Trading volumes were substantial, and open - interest changes were a combination of increases and decreases [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for some contracts changed compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all showed different degrees of decline, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively larger declines [1] - **Industry Indexes**: In the CSI 300 industry indexes, the main consumption and real - estate finance sectors had positive growth rates, while the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors had negative growth rates [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values of different contracts relative to their corresponding indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others showed declines, while information on overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P was also provided [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [2] - China countered the US' 301 investigation on its maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors by restricting transactions with relevant US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean [2] - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy department stated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the long - term [2] 6. Industry Information - Relevant authorities may issue a document to regulate photovoltaic production capacity, including restrictions on capacity utilization and a ban on new capacity [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformations in key industries [2] - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached new highs, with significant year - on - year growth, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also set records [2] - Shanghai aims to boost the intelligent terminal industry, targeting a total scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2027 [2]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3865.23 points, down 0.62%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11 points, down 2.54%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 4.26%, and the ChiNext index decreased by 3.99%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 25,966 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 11 sectors saw gains, with banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors leading the increases. In contrast, the telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced significant declines. Notably, indices related to cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, and selected insurance performed actively [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.16% and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.76%. Notable gainers included Walmart, which rose nearly 5%, and Caterpillar, which increased by over 4%. Conversely, the tech giants index fell by 1.26%, with Nvidia dropping over 4% and Amazon declining by more than 1% [2][4] Economic Insights - The Chinese Premier Li Qiang held a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs to discuss the current economic situation and future work strategies. He emphasized the need for a broader perspective to accurately assess the resilience of China's economy amid international changes and to strengthen confidence while addressing issues. Li highlighted the importance of implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and expanding domestic demand [10][12] - The meeting revealed that 1,734 stocks rose while 3,554 fell, indicating a turbulent market with 146 stocks rising over 5% and 446 falling over 5%. The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a focus on macroeconomic financial data [10][12] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Corporation due to their involvement in U.S. investigations that harm Chinese enterprises' rights. This action reflects ongoing tensions in international trade relations [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries such as electricity, steel, and chemicals. The initiative aims to align with national goals for carbon neutrality and promote green economic transformation [14][15][16] - China's manned spaceflight sector achieved a milestone with the registration of its first international standard, enhancing its influence in global aerospace standards [17]

021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源：上期所、大商所网站，建信期货研究发展部 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月14日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/15 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.64%报 4159.60 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.17%报 50.35 美元/盎司。 2. 国际能源署发布看空预测，WTI 原油主力合约报 58.59 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released the "Special Management Measures for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Central Budget Investment" to enhance and standardize the management of central budget investments for energy conservation and carbon reduction, aiming for high-quality project implementation and improved fund utilization efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Management Measures - The management measures focus on promoting "soft construction" to establish effective mechanisms for solving practical problems and advancing green and low-carbon circular development [1][2]. - The emphasis on "soft construction" marks a significant shift from merely hardware investment to building long-term mechanisms, ensuring that financial inputs translate into sustainable emission reduction benefits [1][2]. Group 2: Project Support and Focus Areas - The NDRC will support energy conservation and carbon reduction projects based on project characteristics, regional economic development levels, and local carbon reduction goals, with a focus on areas excelling in carbon peak and neutrality, energy conservation, and circular economy [2]. - Key supported sectors include energy conservation and carbon reduction in major industries such as electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as projects related to clean coal consumption replacement and low-carbon demonstration [2]. Group 3: Importance of Computing Infrastructure - Supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction in computing infrastructure is deemed necessary and forward-looking, as the rapid growth of the digital economy leads to increased energy consumption in data centers [3]. - Enhancements in energy efficiency in this sector will directly promote the application of green technologies such as liquid cooling and AI intelligent scheduling, thereby strengthening the green foundation of the digital industry and improving its environmental compliance and competitiveness in the international market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with potential impacts from tariff shocks and supply - demand imbalances in various industries [19]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced recent adjustments, but the long - term trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, and the overall risk of A - share margin trading is controllable [32][33]. - The bond market has different outlooks in the short and medium - term, with various factors affecting the performance of different bond types [22][28]. - The commodity market shows diverse trends, such as rising precious metal prices, complex situations in the coal - coke - steel - ore and energy - chemical sectors, and changes in agricultural product trade volumes [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 growth accelerating [1]. - In September 2025, export and import values increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries [2]. - From January to September 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased by 18.29% and 24.11% year - on - year respectively, but decreased in September [2]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and is expected to cut interest rates, with different views on the number of rate cuts [3][4]. 3.3 Main Commodity Highlights - **Metals**: Shandong Gold's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase by 83.9% - 98.5% year - on - year, and gold and silver prices have risen [5][6]. - **Coal - Coke - Steel - Ore**: In early October 2025, steel production showed different trends, and global steel demand is expected to be flat in 2025 and rebound slightly in 2026 [9]. - **Energy - Chemical**: Oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances, and there may be a policy to regulate photovoltaic capacity [10]. - **Agricultural Products**: China's grain projects are progressing, and there are changes in the import and export volumes of grains in different countries [12]. 3.4 Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and is expected to conduct a 6 - month term reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [15]. - **Important News**: The Chinese government emphasizes economic stability, and there are various policy adjustments and economic data changes at home and abroad [16][18]. - **Bond Market**: Bond market performance is diverse, with different trends in different bond types and regions [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates have changed, and the US dollar index has declined [27]. - **Research Reports**: Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond and convertible bond markets [28]. 3.5 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently adjusted, with A - share trading volume reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market has been falling for 7 days [32]. - A - share margin trading scale has reached a new high, and some brokers have adjusted margin ratios, while the overall risk is controllable [32]. - Southbound funds have driven the Hong Kong stock market, and although there is short - term adjustment, the long - term trend is positive [33].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the automotive industry, with production and sales reaching 24.33 million and 24.36 million units respectively from January to September, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% [5][8] - The report emphasizes the positive performance of the financial and liquor sectors in the A-share market, indicating a potential for investment opportunities in these areas [5][9] - The gaming sector is projected to perform well due to favorable policies and AI-driven advancements, with a notable increase in revenue and profit for gaming companies [27][29] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,895.11, down 2.54% [3] - The A-share market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with significant trading volumes indicating investor interest [5][9] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, and the S&P 500 closed at 3,801.78, down 0.45%, reflecting a general downturn in major international indices [4] Industry Analysis - The basic chemical industry showed a slight increase in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.300467 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [20][21] - The gaming industry is experiencing robust growth, with a nearly 24% increase in revenue and a 75% increase in net profit year-on-year [29][27] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with a significant decline in new installations, down 55.29% year-on-year in August [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the soft drink, health products, and snack sectors, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [19][27] - In the gaming sector, the report recommends monitoring companies with strong product cycles and performance metrics, as well as those leveraging AI technologies [29][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Powell's latest remarks suggest that the Fed needs to cut interest rates again and stop balance - sheet reduction, indicating a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - On October 14, the stock market closed lower again with significant trading volume. Due to the lag and long - tail effects of the tariff war and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [2]. - Sino - US trade relations are an incremental positive for the bond market. If the equity market is confirmed to be in high - level consolidation, the bond market will see a slight upward trend [3]. - Steel prices continue to be weak, with iron ore price declines bringing cost - side risks. There is still inventory pressure on finished products, and caution is advised regarding steel prices [4]. - In the short term, lithium prices may show a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with narrow - range fluctuations. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies [5]. - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced the end of the war, but the path to peace in the Middle East remains fragile. The US government shutdown has entered its 14th day, and the White House vows to continue layoffs [12][13]. - Powell suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month and stop balance - sheet reduction in the coming months. This indicates a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to weaken [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries [16]. - The Premier of the State Council held an economic situation symposium. On October 14, the stock market closed lower with significant volume. Due to the tariff war uncertainties and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [17][18]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell leaves the door open for interest rate cuts and may stop balance - sheet reduction in the future. Fed Governor Bowman expects two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [20][21]. - Goldman Sachs' Q3 revenue reached a record high for the same period. Fed officials' dovish remarks support market sentiment, and the 10 - month interest rate meeting is expected to cut rates [22]. - Investment advice: Given the lingering tariff threat, pay attention to negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market on dips [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on October 15 and 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 14 [24][25]. - Sino - US trade relations are positive for the bond market. However, factors such as the stock market adjustment rhythm, policy expectations, and the fund fee rate new regulations may affect the bond market. - Investment advice: Hold existing long positions, be cautious about adding new long positions. There will be opportunities to buy on dips after the fund fee rate new regulations are implemented [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Hebei is stable. Coal mine production is stable, and high iron - water production supports coking coal demand. However, the steel market still faces supply - demand pressure, and short - term steel prices may be under pressure [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the coking coal fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to future demand [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in October will be 731 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume of NOPA members in September is 186.34 million bushels. CONAB predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean production and exports in the 25/26 season [29][30][31]. - Investment advice: The domestic and international futures prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Pay attention to Brazilian weather, Sino - US relations, and whether the M2601 contract can find support at 2900 [31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In Xinjiang, the purchase price of cottonseed in the northern region has stabilized, and the "fixed - price" sales model is becoming more popular. The global textile industry is facing challenges, and China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [32][33][34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new cotton purchases, Sino - US relations, and macro - level dynamics [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering regulating palm oil exports to meet B50 demand, which may reduce global edible oil supply [36]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy in Indonesia will cause supply shortages. Unless the policy fails, it is advisable to buy on dips [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The world steel demand in 2025 is expected to be about 1.75 billion tons, and it will rebound by 1.3% in 2026. In early October, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.032 million tons, and the inventory increased [38][39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, adopt a weak - volatility mindset, short on price rebounds, or wait for price drops [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market is stable. The futures price of the main contract slightly declined. The Xinjiang production area is in the drying - on - the - tree period, and the demand in distribution areas is stable [42][43]. - Investment advice: Before the main trading logic becomes clear, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 14, 2025, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong were 12 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, 69 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase in losses [44]. - Investment advice: Continue to look for opportunities to narrow the spot rice - flour price spread in the long - term. If the deterioration of the real - world fundamentals is slow, the 11 - contract rice - flour price spread may still have room for upward correction [44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In September, brown coal imports were 46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative coal imports decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [45][46]. - Investment advice: Due to supply reduction, strong thermal power demand, and winter storage, steam coal prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, and there is strong support around 700 yuan/ton [46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 84.1 million tons. Iron ore prices may fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars due to insufficient finished - product demand and stable iron - water production [47]. - Investment advice: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars. Maintain a volatility - market mindset [47]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak. The futures price of the main contract has fallen below 2100 and then rebounded. The basis is expected to weaken, and the futures price may gradually outperform the spot price [48]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions and closely monitor market sentiment. Do not enter long positions too early for a rebound [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - South Korea's OCI acquires a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the production in October is expected to increase. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are stable, and the component price may fluctuate [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The progress of platform companies may cause market fluctuations. It is advisable to consider going long on the PS2512 contract when it is at a discount to the spot. Look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the PS2511 - PS2512 contracts at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Dongyue Silicon Materials' net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to decline significantly. The start - up of northern silicon plants is increasing, while southern plants may reduce production. There may be seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [54]. - Investment advice: It is more advisable to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, but be cautious about chasing up [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 45.35 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures price fluctuated downward, and the LME lead price was weak. The domestic lead - ingot import window opened briefly, and the social inventory decreased [56]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, look for opportunities to buy on dips and beware of delivery risks. For arbitrage, look for positive - arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and short - term internal - external reverse - arbitrage opportunities [56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 201.6 US dollars/ton. The zinc - ingot export window has opened, and the LME inventory has increased. The domestic demand improvement is limited [57][58]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For arbitrage, look for medium - term positive - arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive - arbitrage mindset for internal - external trading, and take profits on positive - arbitrage positions in batches on dips [58]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, the combined production of power and other batteries in China increased by 35.4% year - on - year. Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in the peak - season inventory - depletion phase, but the supply is expected to remain high, and the demand may face a decline [59]. - Investment advice: In the short term, lithium prices may fluctuate narrowly. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies and look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the LC2511 - 2512 contracts [59]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia, but it does not affect the project progress. Short - term macro factors are volatile. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4, and the refined nickel may face inventory accumulation pressure in Q4 [60][61]. - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel after macro risks stabilize [61]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [63]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On October 14, the CEA closing price was 55.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous day. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is under pressure [63]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [64]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On October 14, the price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand is average [66]. - Investment advice: Due to the weakening of the Shandong spot price and the poor performance of the macro - economy and coal market, be cautious about bottom - fishing [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On October 14, the domestic PVC powder market price decreased, and the trading volume was weak. The supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity releases, and the demand is pessimistic due to anti - dumping measures [67][68]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited room for further decline [68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factory export prices continue to decline. Polyester raw material prices have fallen, and bottle - chip factories have lowered their prices. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but it may accumulate in Q4 [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption of factory production and new capacity releases. The supply - demand contradiction may increase in Q4, putting pressure on processing fees [71]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On October 14, the soda ash market in Shahe was volatile. The futures price decreased due to the overall risk - appetite decline in the commodity market. The new capacity of Yuangxing's Phase II project is delayed, but the supply is high, and the demand is average [72]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term, maintain a short - selling mindset on price rallies and pay attention to new capacity releases [72]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 14, the float glass price in the Shahe market decreased. The glass futures price continued to fall, mainly due to the delay in the coal - to - gas conversion of several coal - fired production lines in Shahe [73]. - Investment advice: The glass market shows a lack of peak - season strength. Due to supply - side uncertainties, single - side trading is risky. It is recommended to look for arbitrage opportunities by going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price spread widens [74]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In September 2025, China's fertilizer imports were 122,400 tons, and exports were 5.438 million tons. From January to September, imports decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 45.4% year - on - year [75]. - Investment advice: Due to weather - related demand delays, pay attention to whether the demand in Northeast China can be released. When the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton, gradually close out short - selling positions. Reserve entities are advised to continue with a dispersed purchasing strategy [77].