Market Reaction & Rate Cut Probability - Market exuberance is noted, particularly in riskier, speculative market segments, following Powell's speech [4] - Market assigned approximately 80% probability of a rate cut in September prior to the speech, which increased to 85-86% during the conversation [4][5] - Market reactions should be considered, but the market is not always right [2][3] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs have begun to increase prices in some goods categories, with accumulating effects expected over the coming months [1] - Tariff inflation is likened to the "tariff Titanic" hitting the "inflation iceberg," suggesting significant impact [5] - Core inflation is projected to exceed 3% by year-end, influenced by both tariffs and service-side inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges tariff inflation is coming through, as reflected in PPI (Producer Price Index) [11][12] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Powell's speech emphasized balance, assessing both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma balancing concerns about the labor market with rising inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve might not need to be as concerned about the labor market as expressed in the speech, given supply-side factors [7][8] - The Federal Reserve can choose to view inflation data differently and utilize various measures to justify a rate cut [12][13] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 42%, consistent with the rate a year prior [8]

Market Trends & Fed Policy - Morgan Stanley indicates that CPI (Consumer Price Index 消费者价格指数) and jobs data will guide the Federal Reserve's decisions [1] - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will not be the primary factor influencing the Fed's policy decisions [1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates the Federal Reserve's decisions will be driven by CPI (Consumer Price Index) and jobs data [1] - The Fed's policy will not be guided by the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1]

Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - UK CPI inflation reached 3.8%, significantly exceeding the Bank of England's 2% target [1] - Real interest rates are negative when using RPIX, the old target [1] - Further cuts in Bank rate in 2025 appear less probable [1]

每经AI快讯，8月19日，加拿大7月CPI环比增加0.3%，预期增加0.3%，前值增加0.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic events and data releases for the upcoming week, focusing on the potential for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts and the highly anticipated Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] - Key economic indicators to watch include US housing market data, Canadian CPI, UK and Eurozone CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, global PMI data, and German GDP along with UK retail sales [1] Group 2 - On Monday and Tuesday, the US housing market data will be released, including the NAHB housing market index and July new housing starts and building permits, indicating resilience in the US residential construction sector despite high interest rates and economic uncertainty [3] - The Canadian CPI for July will also be released, with market expectations suggesting the Bank of Canada may maintain a pause on interest rate cuts, potentially lowering rates to 2.25% by year-end [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to weak labor market data and low inflation expectations, following a significant rate reduction of 225 basis points since last August [5] - The UK and Eurozone CPI reports will be closely monitored, with the UK CPI unexpectedly rising to its highest level in over a year, which may influence the Bank of England's future decisions [5] Group 4 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes, providing insights into the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts, while the Jackson Hole global central bank conference will feature key speeches, including one from Fed Chair Powell [6][7] - Initial PMI data for August will be released, with a focus on manufacturing and services sectors across various countries, indicating potential economic expansion or contraction [6] Group 5 - On Friday, attention will turn to Germany's second-quarter GDP final value, which is expected to confirm a 0.1% contraction, alongside retail sales data from the UK and Canada [9] - The UK retail sales for July are anticipated to show a continuation of the rebound seen in the previous month, driven by seasonal factors [9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - Index B showed a seasonal rebound, with a standardized increase of 0.43, outperforming historical averages[1] - Consumption and real estate sectors showed relative strength, while investment sector sentiment declined[1] Price Trends - Food prices increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline to -0.3%[2] - PPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 22, 2025, is 2.48%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,207.64[20]

Monetary Policy & Framework - The industry observes an odd timing for a major new framework announcement from the Fed, suggesting it should be addressed by the incoming chairman after consultation [1][2] - The industry notes the Fed's past errors leaned towards excessive transparency and forecasting, leading to iatrogenic volatility, and suggests fewer dot plots and forecasts [2][3] - The industry suggests a return to a more vague and oracular approach, similar to Volcker and Greenspan, given the current challenge of preventing high inflation expectations from becoming embedded [4][5] - The industry emphasizes the importance of symmetry with respect to inflation and learning from the previous framework's shortcomings [6] - The industry highlights the need for careful consideration of the management of the maturity structure of the federal debt, especially when the Treasury and the Fed have conflicting objectives [7] Inflation & Interest Rates - The industry acknowledges persistent inflation above the 2% target, yet markets anticipate a Fed rate cut in September [8] - The industry notes evidence of economic weakening is likely driving market expectations for a Fed rate ease [9] - The industry interprets the market's anticipation of a 25 basis point cut in September as a likelihood, with possibilities of 50 basis points or zero being equally likely [10] - The industry cautions against certainty about future actions, as data could push towards a 50 basis point cut or further delay [11] Economic & Geopolitical Considerations - The industry expresses surprise at the Treasury Secretary's prescriptive stance on monetary policy, suggesting a 175 basis point cut [12][13] - The industry suggests elevated deficit spending, data center spending, reduced trade deficits, and higher asset prices may be raising the net demand for funds, potentially increasing neutral interest rates [15] - The industry expresses disappointment that President Trump hasn't leveraged frozen Russian reserves to drive a just peace with Ukraine [17][18]