特朗普的支持率雪崩式下滑，本质上是他亲手埋下的"关税地雷"炸了锅。自今年2月推行"对等关税"以来，美国民众切实感受 到了生活成本飙升的切肤之痛。 彭博社民调显示，超过半数受访者认为关税直接影响了财务状况，69%的人预计日常用品价格将持续上涨。这种情绪在独立 选民中尤为强烈，昆尼皮亚克大学的调查显示，58%的独立选民不认可特朗普的经济政策，较三个月前激增17个百分点。 更致命的是，特朗普引以为傲的"经济成绩单"正在反噬他。尽管白宫反复强调就业数据向好，但一季度GDP萎缩0.3%的冰冷 现实，彻底撕下了"经济繁荣"的伪装。 消费者支出增速从去年四季度的4%骤降至1.8%，企业投资也因关税不确定性大幅缩水。这种"杀敌一千自损八百"的政策，让 美国民众对特朗普的信任彻底透支。正如《经济学人》的尖锐评论："他承诺带来黄金时代，却让所有该涨的都跌了。" 在刚刚过去的几天时间里，特朗普政府上上下下都紧张得不行，重重压力朝他们袭来。而偏偏在此时，来自日本共同社的最 新消息称：中国政府有邀请特朗普参加"九三阅兵"的打算。这到底是怎么回事？ 国际孤立：盟友逼宫与关税困局 特朗普的关税大棒不仅打疼了美国百姓，更把盟友们逼到了墙角。 ...

Key Points - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinion on adjusting the price fluctuation limit for risk warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, aligning it with other stocks on the main board [2][4] - The U.S. is accelerating negotiations with relevant economies, aiming to reach trade agreements before the expiration of the 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on July 9 [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation and boost consumption [4] - The General Administration of Customs announced the conditional resumption of imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan, following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge [4] Company News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a notice of administrative punishment against Nanjing Yuebo Power System Co., Ltd. for suspected information disclosure violations [7] - Mindray Medical's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 5 million shares, accounting for 0.41% of the company's total share capital [10] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce their stake by no more than 3% [11] - Mag Valley Technology's shareholder Baolifeng plans to reduce their stake by no more than 3% [12] - Qinhuangdao Port's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission plans to reduce its stake by no more than 2% [13] - Unisoc Technology repurchased 775,500 shares for 49.6173 million yuan [14] - *ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a significant 399 million yuan contract for computing power sales [15] - Degu Technology intends to acquire control of Haowei Technology, with stock trading suspended from June 30 [16] - Chengdu Xian Dao terminated a major asset restructuring plan to acquire approximately 65% of Nanjing Haina Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. [17] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [21] Market Insights - Zhongtai Securities maintains a focus on the bond market and dividend assets, while also suggesting that the technology sector, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, is entering a reasonable range for gradual investment [23] - Tianfeng Securities highlights that sectors with solid fundamentals, such as overseas computing power and gaming, may have sustainability, while future trends like solid-state batteries and stablecoins may carry higher risk [24]

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报记者 熊昕仪 环球时报特约记者 文远】商务部新闻发言人28日晚就美与有关国家关税谈判情况答记者问时表 示，中方乐见各方通过平等磋商解决与美方经贸分歧，但坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价达成交易，换取所谓关税减免。如果出现这种情况，中方 绝不接受，将坚决予以反制，维护自身正当权益。马来西亚《今日商业》杂志评论称，这是中国商务部对任何与美国达成损害中国利益贸易协议的国家发出 的严厉警告。与此同时，美国与贸易伙伴的谈判进展并不顺利。在美国政府"对等关税"90天暂停期即将于7月9日结束的背景下，美国总统特朗普仍然保留了 对许多贸易伙伴重新征收高额关税的可能性，美国财长贝森特也暗示，政府可能会给予各国更多时间进行谈判。美国《纽约时报》称，美方表态凸显了与美 国谈判时所面临的不确定性。 商务部研究院研究员周密29日对《环球时报》记者表示，中国一直坚持原则，即在多边框架下处理国与国之间的经贸问题，这就包括对所有国家都采取平等 互惠的方式。因此，如果个别国家在经贸谈判中不遵守多边原则，对中国造成损失，中方肯定不会认可这样的做法。商务部28日的表态也再一次明确释放了 信号：对于想跟 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. President Trump's abrupt decision to halt trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's implementation of a digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, which he labeled as a "blatant attack" [1][2] - The Canadian digital services tax, set at 3%, is expected to impact major U.S. tech firms like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Uber, potentially costing them billions of dollars [2] - Canada has initiated retaliatory measures against the U.S. by imposing quotas on steel imports and a 50% additional tax on steel products exceeding those quotas, aimed at protecting its domestic industry from "unfair U.S. tariffs" [3] Group 2 - Japan and South Korea are actively pursuing trade negotiations with the U.S., with South Korea's new government emphasizing the need for accelerated discussions, particularly regarding tariffs on key products [4] - Japan's trade talks with the U.S. have not yielded significant progress, especially concerning auto tariffs, despite Japan's efforts to use agricultural imports and technology sharing as negotiation leverage [5][7] - The deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" suspension is approaching, with limited time left for the U.S. to finalize agreements, raising concerns about the feasibility of meeting previously set timelines [8]

Core Viewpoint - Trump does not anticipate extending the July 9 deadline for tariffs, suggesting that he prefers to implement higher tariffs sooner rather than later [2][3] Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Trump believes he does not need to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to reach agreements with the U.S. to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. government has the flexibility to either extend or advance the deadline, with Trump expressing a preference for the latter [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed skepticism about finalizing agreements with all trading partners before the deadline, indicating that reaching deals with 10 to 12 out of 18 key relationships might be feasible [2] Group 2: Specific Country Negotiations - India is highlighted as one of the countries closest to reaching an agreement, with trade officials extending their stay in Washington to resolve differences [3][7] - The U.S. is pushing for India to open its market to genetically modified crops, which India has resisted due to concerns for local farmers [7] - France's finance minister expressed confidence that the EU could reach a trade agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline, potentially involving discussions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) [9] Group 3: Broader Trade Context - Trump announced plans for significant tariffs on major trading partners, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and 50% on steel and aluminum, set to take effect on July 9 [9] - The EU is currently purchasing LNG from Russia but is exploring increasing imports from the U.S. to avoid tariff hikes [9][10] - France is coordinating with the EU Commission on potential countermeasures against U.S. imports, although they hope to reach an agreement to avoid such measures [11]

2025.06. 29 本文字数：2524，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 临近特朗普政府设下的关税谈判大限只剩下一周多时间，美方再次放出谈判或可延期讯息。 当地时间27日，美国总统特朗普在记者会上表示，此前宣布的截止日期仍具灵活性。 美国财政部长贝森特则在同天早些时候表示，特朗普政府与十多个贸易伙伴的关税谈判可能延续至9月。 贝森特介绍，美国商务部部长卢特尼克在近期说，白宫计划与10个主要贸易伙伴达成协议，而目前在美 方的18个重要贸易伙伴中，如果能够与其中的10个或12个达成协议(此外还有另外20个重要伙伴)，"那么 我认为我们可以在美国劳动节（9月1日）前完成贸易谈判。" 最后时刻要提高要价？ 特朗普在27日的记者会上进一步强化了对部分国家提高关税的威胁。 "在未来一周半左右的时间里，或者可能更早，我们将发送一封信件，我们已经与许多国家进行了沟通， 我们将告诉他们，他们需要支付多少费用才能在美国开展业务，"特朗普表示。 当被问及7月的最后期限是否已成定局时，特朗普暗示他甚至可以缩短寻求协议的贸易伙伴的时间表。 来源：新华社 "我们可以随心所欲。"特朗普表示，"我们可以延长它（谈判截止日期 ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to show an upward breakthrough in July, with technology and non-bank sectors likely to outperform [2][3][21] - Fiscal indices and resilient consumption have led to a marginal improvement in total demand growth in Q2, creating a favorable environment for upcoming mid-year performance disclosures [3][21] - Despite high-frequency data indicating export pressures in the second half, total demand is expected to remain stable, reducing the likelihood of significant economic downturns [3][21] Industry Recommendations - Focus on sectors with expected mid-year performance improvements, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and midstream manufacturing [4][17] - Recommended sectors include electronics (semiconductors), machinery (automation equipment), pharmaceuticals (chemical drugs), defense and military, non-ferrous metals (industrial, precious, and minor metals), and computers [4][17] - Key investment tracks for July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank finance, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [18] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth rebounded to 5.7% in May, indicating stability, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.2% [22][23] - Government financing has significantly contributed to social financing growth, supporting economic recovery and creating a favorable financial environment for the stock market [24][27] - Fiscal spending has accelerated, with a 26% year-on-year increase in broad fiscal spending in the first five months, playing a crucial role in improving economic data [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying global competition over tax benefits, highlighting the backlash against the U.S. "America First" tax policy despite the U.S. being the world's only "superpower" [1][8]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, introduced by President Trump, has become a focal point of international discussion, particularly due to its "retaliatory tax" provisions, which intertwine with ongoing trade disputes [2][3]. - The bill passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under review in the Senate, where any substantial amendments would require a return to the House for further voting [2][3]. - The bill's Section 899 allows the U.S. government to impose "retaliatory taxes" against what it deems "unfair foreign taxes" targeting U.S. companies and individuals [3][4]. Group 2: Tax Policy Implications - "Unfair foreign taxes" include discriminatory taxes against U.S. individuals and companies, as well as extraterritorial tax laws, with specific examples being the Global Minimum Tax rules and Digital Services Taxes (DST) [3][4]. - The Digital Services Tax, implemented by countries like the UK and France, typically ranges from 2% to 5% and is viewed by the U.S. as discriminatory against American digital firms [3][4]. - The U.S. has been actively pushing for retaliatory measures against these foreign tax policies, with Republican lawmakers advocating for legislation to counteract perceived tax injustices [4][5]. Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - Treasury Secretary Yellen has indicated a willingness to compromise, suggesting the potential removal of Section 899 in exchange for agreements on tax policies with G7 allies [5][6]. - The U.S. may accelerate the implementation of the G20-OECD dual pillar tax reform, which could lead to a reevaluation of the retaliatory tax stance [6][8]. - Despite the potential for compromise, the emotional decision-making of President Trump could lead to a reassertion of the retaliatory tax if foreign nations continue to impose taxes on U.S. companies [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the pressure exerted by the U.S. on the G7 countries regarding tax policies and tariffs, indicating a shift in power dynamics within the G7 group [1][3][10] - The G7 group's decision to exempt U.S. companies from the so-called "minimum tax" reflects a concession to U.S. demands, showcasing the influence of the U.S. in international economic discussions [5][7][10] - The U.S. has announced a 90-day suspension of its "reciprocal tariffs," yet continues to signal potential new tariffs, emphasizing its strategy of leveraging tariffs to gain advantages in trade negotiations [1][10] Group 2 - The "global minimum tax" initiative, supported by 140 economies, imposes a 15% minimum tax rate on companies with revenues exceeding $750 million, with several G7 countries already implementing it [3] - The G7 group's current stance appears to be a retreat from its previous position, as it seeks to avoid further U.S. tariff increases by offering special tax rates to U.S. companies [5][8] - The dynamics within the G7 have shifted, with the group now appearing to prioritize U.S. interests over collective agreements, indicating a potential redefinition of its role in global economic governance [3][10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to implement incremental policies to stimulate economic recovery and support technology innovation and consumption [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of financing support in key areas such as "two new" and "two heavy" sectors, and maintaining capital market stability through various financial instruments [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce condemned the unilateral imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S., asserting that it undermines multilateral trade systems [2] - The U.S. has indicated it may set tariffs unilaterally on countries that do not reach trade agreements by July 9, which China firmly opposes [2] Group 3: Corporate Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced severe penalties for Nanjing Yuebo Power System Co., Ltd. for information disclosure violations, indicating a crackdown on corporate misconduct [5] - Xiaomi responded to media reports regarding a fire incident involving its YU7 Max vehicle, clarifying that the incident was due to high temperatures during testing and did not affect the vehicle's braking system [13] Group 4: Market Adjustments - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges proposed to adjust the price fluctuation limits for risk-warning stocks from 5% to 10%, which is currently in the feedback stage [6][7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced an increase in transaction fees from 0.002% to 0.0042%, affecting trading costs for mainland investors [9] Group 5: Investment Insights - Analysts from Everbright Securities expect the market index to remain volatile, with a focus on domestic consumption and the impact of U.S. policies [18] - Dongwu Securities predicts a significant possibility for the index to surpass last year's high, with a focus on growth stocks in sectors like AI and commercial aerospace [19]