1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing a moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market is limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle regulation again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. The new regulations for public funds have led to concentrated institutional selling, increasing short - term market volatility [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to reasonable pricing. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, suggesting that the market is not pricing in a rate cut next year, and futures are slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a catch - up increase [12]. - In the short term, the demand side remains weak, and the fundamentals still support the bond market. The Fed's faster - than - expected restart of balance - sheet expansion is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. But the expectation of domestic easing has not yet heated up, and the strength of allocation funds is still cautious. The crowded trading in Treasury bond futures may be the main cause of the sharp fluctuations. The continuation of the bond market's strength depends on the persistence of easing sentiment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: Rumors of loose policies boosted the bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, ignoring the strong stock market [8]. - **Interest rate bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, mostly by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.835%, down 1.75bp [9]. - **Funding market**: Tax payment periods had little impact, and the inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The central bank had 1898 billion yuan in open - market maturities and injected 468 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, and funding rates declined slightly. The overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, and the 7 - day rate fell 0.65bp to 1.4423%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Looking back at 2025, "supportive" was the core tone of monetary policy implementation, and it is expected to continue in 2026. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly, and better use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas and weak links of the real economy. It will also explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [13]. - After the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the general requirement of "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure", the market is highly concerned about the setting of the fiscal deficit ratio for next year. Market institutions and industry insiders generally expect the deficit ratio in 2026 to be no lower than this year's level of 4%. China will continue to implement a more active fiscal policy [13]. - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move", pointed out that insufficient aggregate demand is the prominent contradiction in current economic operations. It is necessary to implement the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand, form a complete domestic demand system, and expand consumer, investment, and financial demands. The key to expanding consumption is to promote employment, improve social security, optimize income distribution, and expand the middle - income group [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury bond futures**: Data on the trading of Treasury bond futures on December 17, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Money market**: Information on the inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate, SHIBOR term structure and trend, etc., was presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][31]. - **Derivatives market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve were shown, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [36].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in retail stocks, with companies like Central Plaza, Yimin Group, Shanghai Jiubai, Lihua Co., and Baida Group hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for next year, addressing the recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth [1] - The government plans to focus on structural changes in consumption and will work on boosting both supply and demand to stimulate consumption [1] Group 2 - Central Plaza's stock increased by 10.12%, with a total market value of 5.281 billion [2] - Yimin Group's stock rose by 10.11%, with a market capitalization of 5.165 billion [2] - Dongbai Group's stock saw a rise of 6.70%, with a market value of 15.5 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 158.30% [2]

谈及最新扩大内需政策对白酒的影响，中金公司在最新研报中表示：随着政策的持续深化，有望对白酒 需求端构成提振，在2025年低基数下同比有望转正，预计上半年开始行业开始迎来梯次修复。供给端， 则以创新拓展增量为主线，预计库存隐患基本解除，其中以用户需求为出发点的创新预计进一步增加， 更多企业会拥抱即时零售等线上渠道。整体来看，中金公司预计2026年白酒报表有望出清改善，上行拐 点逐步清晰。 华创证券董广阳团队也表示，2026年白酒周期将加速筑底。持续观察两大指标：一是飞天茅台批价企稳 放量时点，二是经销商亏损收窄时点，现金流企稳好转。 12月18日，大消费连续走高，零售方向领涨，百大集团走出6连板，利群股份3连板，中央商场、上海九 百、九牧王、皇氏集团、浪莎股份涨停。消息面上，顶层设计明确：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任 务，明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 相比较之下，大消费昔日的"明星板块"白酒仍在磨底，贵州茅台股价在1400元附近微弱反弹，最新报 1427元/股。飞天茅台（2025散）批价一度跌破1499元指导价后，连续4日企稳在1550元/瓶。 ...

格隆汇12月18日｜A股市场零售股拉升，其中，中央商场、益民集团、上海九百、利群股份、百大集团 涨停，东百集团涨超6%，中百集团（维权）涨5%，友好集团、新世界涨超4%，孩子王、三江购物、徐 家汇、天虹股份涨超3%。 消息面上，面对国内消费疲弱和外部环境不确定性，中共中央财办有关负责官员说，扩大内需是明年排 在首位的重点任务，并称近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。明年要把握消费的 结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。明年要着眼惠民生增后劲，推动投资止跌回稳。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 淵媚%↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600280 | 中央商场 | 1 | 10.12 | 52.81亿 | 13.87 | | 600824 | 福島駅 | 章 | 10.11 | 51.65亿 | 10.14 | | 600838 | 上海九百 | | 10.04 | 40.41亿 | 3.96 | | 601366 | 利群股份 | 1 | 10.02 | 55.20亿 | 19.90 | | 600865 | ...

12月18日，大消费板块持续走高，零售、服装、食品饮料方向领涨，百大集团走出6连板，利群股份3连 板，中央商场、上海九百、九牧王、皇氏集团、浪莎股份涨停。 消息面上，中央财办有关负责同志表示，扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年要把握消费的结构 性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 回顾近期，与促进消费、提振内需相关的政策密集出台，在提振居民消费预期同时，也给大消费板块行 情向好提供了助力。 业内人士认为，延续并扩大直接补贴及消费贷贴息、改善物价等，有望成为短期内值得期待的扩消费政 策；从投资角度出发，消费行业呈现底部特征，基本面触底修复构成股价"催化剂"，具备规模效应且业 绩弹性突出的连锁餐饮与新茶饮企业、赛事运营与相关服务领域的体育公司、具备稀缺IP价值并能持续 转化粉丝经济的演艺运营商等细分标的值得关注。 政策红利不断释放 在中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊看来，未来经济工作需要促进形成更多由内需主导、消 费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，在财政支出方向上，"以旧换新"政策有望延续并更多向服务消费领 域倾斜，2026年推动更多资金资源投资于人、服务民生这一政策导向或会继续强化。 临近年底消费旺季，从 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期逐渐发酵 | 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均早盘震荡整理，午后快速反弹，全天震荡上涨。股市全市场成交额 18140 亿 元，较上日成交额放量 659 亿元。由于此前股市震荡回调，接近震荡区间下沿，从中长期的角度看具 备较强吸引力，中长期投资者入市推动股指反弹。政策面强调扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务， 因此政策面稳定宏观需求的预期较强，对股指形成较强支撑。由于完成今年经济增长目标的压力较 小，年内政策加码的动力不足，政策的发力点预计在明年一季度，目前股指仍然处于震荡区间内，不 过后市随着政策利好预期不断发 ...

学习中央经济工作会议精神 第 来 关 话 以自身确定性 应对外部不确定性 0 新华社国内部出品 5月，考察河南时指出"面对复杂的外部环境，要坚定信心，坚定不移办好自己的事"；10月，在党 的二十届四中全会上强调"把发展放在自己力量基点上"；10月底，全会后首次出访向外界阐明中国"做 更好的自己，同世界各国分享发展机遇"…… 在一个更加不稳定不确定的世界中谋求发展，顶住压力、练好内功、站稳脚跟，就没有跨不过去的 坎。这背后蕴含的是自力更生、艰苦奋斗的伟大精神。 地方工作期间，习近平同志就把"自力更生"作为工作出发点：指导脱贫时，强调"要立足自力更 生，增强自身造血功能"；面对粮食安全问题，指出"靠国际市场保不了中国的粮食安全，中国人自己的 问题还是要靠自己解决"；针对能源与土地供应紧张、经济增长方式粗放等问题，开出"药方"："化压力 为动力，苦练内功，着力解决长期困扰我们的结构性、素质性矛盾和问题，真正把经济增长方式转变到 依靠科技进步和提高劳动者素质的轨道上来""靠自己，就必须有自主创新能力，必须有自力更生精 神"。 当前，世界百年变局加速演进，国际力量对比深刻调整，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，我 国发 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,811.002 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics led the gains, while agriculture, defense, and coal sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as CPO, copper cable high-speed connections, and liquid cooling servers showed significant increases, whereas Hainan Free Trade Zone, horse racing, and ride-hailing concepts experienced declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 0.92%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.03%. In contrast, the three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.47%, S&P 500 down by 1.16%, and Nasdaq down by 1.81% [2][7] Important News - According to the Securities Times, the "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and price recovery. This requires maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals to meet the financing needs of the real economy. Market institutions generally expect a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates by approximately 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, in the coming year. Structural tools will focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and supporting small and micro enterprises [3][7] - The Ministry of Finance reported that national fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of the year reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate of the previous 10 months. Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, growing by 1.8%, while securities transaction stamp duty revenue surged by 70.7% to 185.5 billion yuan [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates that China's economy is expected to grow around 5% in 2025, with a total economic volume reaching approximately 140 trillion yuan, despite facing challenges in the coming year [1][11]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China will continue to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][12]. - The total government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, which is expected to remain stable in 2026 [2][13]. - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth, with tools including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][14]. Group 2: Income and Employment - A plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be implemented in 2026, aiming to enhance the quality of employment and raise the basic pension for residents [5][15]. - The goal is to synchronize income growth with economic growth, ensuring that labor remuneration increases alongside productivity [6][16]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability, focusing on key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, while promoting training in high-demand industries [7][17]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority for 2026, with a focus on balancing goods and service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [8][18]. - Investment is expected to stabilize, with an emphasis on infrastructure projects that enhance consumer services and improve living standards [9][20]. - The government aims to stimulate private investment, particularly in high-tech and service sectors, to boost overall economic activity [10][21].

Macro Research - The US job market is showing signs of gradual slowdown, with November non-farm employment increasing by 64,000, slightly above the expected 50,000, but the October figures were significantly revised down by 105,000 due to a one-time impact from the end of employment related to Trump's delayed resignation plan [2][9] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the expected 4.5%, primarily influenced by an increase in labor force participation, while the U6 unemployment rate increased significantly from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating growing pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers [3][10] Home Appliance Research - Anfu Technology has strategically invested in Suzhou Yilong Micro, becoming a leading investor, which is part of its efforts to build a second growth curve [2][4] - The investment in the optical chip sector allows Anfu to share in Yilong Micro's high growth potential and develop a dual layout of "electric + optical," showcasing its forward-looking industrial layout and strong resource integration capabilities [6][26] Company Tracking Report: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology's acquisition of Yilong Micro is progressing steadily, focusing on increasing its core business in power banks while investing in high-potential hard technology sectors [4][23] - The expected EPS for Anfu Technology from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 1.03, 1.72, and 1.91 yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 58.6%, 66.2%, and 10.9% respectively [4][23] - The target price for Anfu Technology is set at 51.60 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on a 30x PE for 2026 [4][23] Company Overview: Yilong Micro - Yilong Micro focuses on the research, design, and production of photonic integrated chips for data center optical communication, established in Suzhou in 2021 with a core team of high-level national talents and returnee PhDs [6][25] - The company has developed a proprietary technology platform for silicon photonic heterogeneous integration and has been recognized as a "future star" in China's science and technology innovation [6][25] Investment Outlook - The investment in Yilong Micro is expected to enhance Anfu Technology's growth trajectory and open up new valuation ceilings, leveraging the complementary industrial resources from Anfu and its shareholders [6][26] - The overall strategy reflects a commitment to advancing from technology research and development to large-scale production and market application [6][26]