Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released draft guidelines for government investment funds aimed at enhancing management and promoting high-quality development to better serve national strategies and industrial upgrades [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Investment Fund Guidelines - The guidelines emphasize the need for government investment funds to support key areas, focusing on modernizing industries, tackling core technology challenges, and major cross-regional projects [1][2] - National-level funds are encouraged to collaborate with local funds, particularly in cutting-edge technology and critical industry chain segments, to leverage local resources through joint sub-funds or contributions to local funds [1][2] - Local funds should identify their positioning based on regional financial capabilities, industrial resources, and debt risks, focusing on local特色优势产业 and supporting small and micro enterprises as well as technology innovation [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus and Restrictions - Government investment funds are directed to enhance high-end capacity supply, focusing on industrial technology innovation and addressing critical technology bottlenecks [2] - Investment in restricted or eliminated industries as per the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog" is prohibited, and funds should avoid investing in sectors with structural contradictions [2] - The establishment of government investment funds should align with the goal of building a unified national market, discouraging investment solely for attracting capital [2] Group 3: Evaluation and Management - The management guidelines highlight the importance of incentive and constraint mechanisms to optimize industrial layout and strengthen industrial regulation [3][4] - An evaluation system will be established to assess fund direction, operational management, and compliance with national policies, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative metrics [3] - Funds exhibiting negative behaviors as per the established blacklist will not undergo evaluation for that year, and existing funds not aligning with the new guidelines are encouraged to exit upon expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges while promoting growth and stability in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The meeting assesses that China's economy has shown strong vitality and resilience in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2]. - However, there are ongoing risks such as insufficient effective demand, low price levels, and challenges from trade conflicts that may persist into the next five-year plan [2][4]. - The economic cycle is still in the destocking phase, necessitating targeted incremental policies to stimulate various sectors [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for sustained and timely macroeconomic policies, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [5][6]. - Emphasis is placed on the effective implementation of existing policies, with a focus on structural and targeted support rather than broad-based measures [5][6]. - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government bonds issued by mid-2023 [5]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlights the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, particularly through boosting consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [8]. - Service consumption is identified as a key driver for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand, with recent policies aimed at improving living standards to further stimulate consumption [8]. Group 4: Market Competition and Industry Governance - The meeting stresses the need to promote a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition and excess capacity in key industries [9][10]. - Specific measures include controlling new capacity in traditional industries and supporting innovation in emerging sectors to avoid administrative overreach [9]. Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting emphasizes the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing support to affected foreign trade enterprises and optimizing export tax rebate policies [11]. - Policies will be introduced to assist foreign trade companies in exploring non-U.S. overseas markets and to facilitate the transition of export goods to domestic sales [11]. Group 6: Local Government Debt Management - The meeting reiterates the importance of managing local government debt risks and prohibits the creation of new hidden debts, aiming for a clear separation between government and enterprise financing [12]. - The focus is on a gradual and effective approach to clearing local financing platforms while ensuring risk control [12]. Group 7: Capital Market Development - The meeting calls for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to support stable growth [13][14]. - Suggestions include improving investment return expectations, increasing financing convenience, and expanding the range of financial tools available to support market stability [13][14].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and be appropriately strengthened, focusing on effective release of domestic demand potential and deepening reforms [1][4] - The current economic situation is characterized by strong resilience, with GDP growth in the first half of the year reaching 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] Group 2 - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued by the end of June [5] - Emphasis was placed on structural support in monetary policy, particularly for small and micro enterprises, to stabilize employment and residents' income [5][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is centered on promoting consumption, particularly in the service sector, which is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing employment and expanding demand [6] Group 3 - The meeting proposed to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition [7] - There is a need for timely support policies for foreign trade enterprises affected by external uncertainties, including financial support and optimizing export tax rebate policies [8][9] - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively and orderly addressing local government debt risks and prohibiting the addition of new hidden debts [10] Group 4 - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, focusing on improving investment return expectations and resource allocation [11] - Suggestions were made to lower operational thresholds for capital market support tools and to create new financial instruments to stabilize the capital market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of economic work in the second half of the year to achieve the goals set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and focuses on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] Macro Policy - Macro policies need to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, with a focus on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight [2] - The meeting reiterates the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [2][3] Fiscal Policy - The meeting calls for accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency and ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level [3] - As of the end of June, the budget for special bonds has reached 658.3 billion yuan, indicating a strong push for fiscal policy [3] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in overall financing costs [4] - The meeting does not mention new structural monetary policy tools but emphasizes the effective use of existing ones to support small and micro enterprises, consumption, and foreign trade [4][5] Domestic Demand - The meeting highlights the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [6] - Measures to boost consumption include implementing special actions to stimulate consumption and expanding service consumption [6][7] Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of high-quality investment in infrastructure and stimulating private investment through reduced market access barriers and financial support [7] Technological Innovation - The meeting emphasizes the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation as a core strategy for high-quality development [8] - Focus areas include strategic emerging industries and future industries, with a goal of fostering new supply to create new demand [8][9] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting underscores the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with policies to support affected foreign trade enterprises [10][11] - The foreign trade sector showed resilience, with imports and exports maintaining a scale of over 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [11] Capital Market - The meeting calls for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to consolidate the positive momentum [12] - Reforms should focus on market-oriented, rule-of-law, and internationalization to improve capital allocation efficiency [12] Unified National Market - The meeting proposes deepening the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition order and address current market pain points [13][14] Urban Renewal - The meeting emphasizes high-quality urban renewal as a means to ensure stable economic development, with a focus on transforming old urban areas and improving existing housing stock [15][16] - Urban renewal is seen as a key driver to stimulate housing demand and mitigate risks in the real estate sector [16]

政府投资基金迎来两大重磅文件。 《每日经济新闻》记者获悉，7月30日，国家发改委向社会公开征求《政府投资基金布局规划和投向工 作指引》（以下简称《指引》）和《加强政府投资基金投向指导评价管理办法》（以下简称《办法》） 意见。 其中，《指引》提出政府投资基金应聚焦政策目标、避免同质化竞争和挤出效应；规定基金需投向鼓励 类产业（如符合国家级产业目录），国家级基金侧重国家层面重大项目和关键技术攻关，地方基金聚焦 区域特色产业；强调投向调控，禁止投资限制类、淘汰类产业，避免重复设立和变相增加隐性债务等。 《办法》则指出，严防地方政府通过政府投资基金变相补贴产能过剩领域，防止重复投资和无序竞争。 国家发改委会同有关部门，建立突出基金投向政策取向评价、覆盖基金运营管理全流程、定量和定性相 结合的评价指标体系，并动态调整。 有业内人士对记者分析称，两大重磅文件的发布，是对今年1月《国务院办公厅关于促进政府投资基金 高质量发展的指导意见》（国办发〔2025〕1号，以下简称《指导意见》）的贯彻落实。可以预见，政 府投资基金作为产业发展的"助推器"，将在2025年进一步规范，更高效地吸引更多的资本带动产业转型 和科技创新，培育并 ...

Group 1: Summer Economic Activities - The summer economy is revitalizing consumption with unique cultural and tourism activities, such as the martial arts-themed attractions in Kaifeng, which saw a 230% increase in visitor numbers compared to last year [2][3] - Various regions are promoting differentiated cultural tourism activities, leading to a surge in summer travel, with new projects enhancing visitor experiences [3] Group 2: National Unified Market Development - The construction of a national unified market is advancing, with initiatives like the seamless migration of businesses across provinces, exemplified by a company moving from Chongqing to Yibin [4] - The Central Economic Committee has outlined plans to deepen the national unified market, with multiple regions implementing measures to facilitate this integration [4][5] Group 3: Acceleration of Major Projects - Major infrastructure projects are being expedited, including the completion of a 750 kV power transmission project around the Tarim Basin and the production commencement of the world's largest single green ammonia facility in Jilin [6][7] - The government has allocated 800 billion yuan for construction projects, supporting 1,459 initiatives to stimulate economic growth [6] Group 4: Expansion of High-Level Opening Up - High-level international exhibitions are being successfully held, showcasing innovations and attracting significant foreign participation, such as the third Chain Expo with 172 overseas delegations [8][9] - China's commitment to expanding high-level opening up is evident through various foreign investment projects, including the opening of the largest LEGO park in Shanghai and the launch of a major ExxonMobil project [9][10]

Group 1: Summer Economic Activation - The summer economy is revitalizing consumer spending, with unique cultural and tourism activities driving increased visitor numbers, such as a 230% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic at a themed attraction in Henan [5][10] - Various regions are launching differentiated cultural tourism activities to boost summer travel, including adventure sports and cultural festivals, contributing to a rise in tourism consumption [5][10] Group 2: National Unified Market Development - The construction of a national unified market is progressing, with initiatives to facilitate business migration and streamline administrative processes, exemplified by a company relocating with reduced bureaucratic hurdles [11][14] - Collaborative agreements among regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta, are enhancing market integration and regulatory cooperation, supporting the establishment of a unified market [11][14] Group 3: Acceleration of Major Project Construction - Major infrastructure projects are being expedited, with significant milestones achieved, such as the completion of a 4,197 km power transmission project and the production commencement of a large-scale green ammonia facility [17][20] - The government has allocated 800 billion yuan for construction projects, supporting 1,459 initiatives, which is crucial for stabilizing the economy and boosting domestic demand [17][20] Group 4: Expansion of High-Level Opening Up - High-level international exhibitions are being successfully held, attracting increased participation and showcasing innovations, which reinforces China's commitment to opening its markets [23][26] - Foreign investment cases, such as the opening of the largest LEGO park in Shanghai and significant projects by multinational corporations, highlight the ongoing expansion of China's openness to global business [23][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy in the second half of the year is set to "continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner" to promote the recovery of domestic demand and achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% [2][3]. - The "anti - involution" policy will be steadily advanced, and it is expected that CPI and PPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year [4]. - Fiscal policy emphasizes accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, and attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - Monetary policy maintains a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus, and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened [7]. - The bond market will experience increased volatility, and the investment strategy should be defensive [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Macro - policy orientation - The macro - policy in the second half of the year needs to continue and increase force to consolidate the economic recovery and achieve the 5% GDP growth target. It aims to release domestic demand potential by promoting consumption and expanding effective investment [2][3]. II. "Anti - involution" and price trends - The "anti - involution" policy will be advanced to promote the balance of supply and demand and the return of prices to a reasonable level. It is expected that CPI and PPI will rise steadily in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity governance measures in key industries [4]. III. Fiscal policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive. As of July 30, the cumulative issuance of local new general bonds was 538.3 billion with a progress of 67.3%, and that of local new special bonds was 277.6 billion with a progress of 63.13%. Attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. IV. Monetary policy - Monetary policy will maintain a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus. The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened to keep liquidity abundant and lower the comprehensive social financing cost [7]. V. Bond market strategy - The influence of the stock market on the bond market has increased, bringing re - pricing pressure on long - term bonds. The short - term risk of a bearish bond market is low. The investment strategy suggests that the 10 - year treasury bond rate of 1.75% - 1.8% has allocation value, and attention can be paid to the allocation value of short - duration and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds after adjustment [8][9].

Group 1: Summer Economic Activity - The summer economy is revitalizing consumption, with various regions launching unique cultural and tourism activities to boost summer travel [2][3] - The Wansui Mountain Scenic Area in Kaifeng, Henan, reported a 230% increase in visitor numbers compared to last year, with around 70,000 daily visitors during the summer [2] - Regions like Guizhou and Xinjiang are creating new consumption scenarios by integrating culture, tourism, sports, and food [2] Group 2: National Unified Market Development - The construction of a national unified market is advancing, with 355 administrative service items achieving "Chuan Yu Tong Ban" (Sichuan-Chongqing mutual recognition) [3][4] - The Central Economic Committee has outlined plans to deepen the construction of a unified national market, with various regions actively participating [3][4] - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is focusing on industrial transfer and restructuring, while Jiangsu is enhancing regulatory frameworks to support market integration [3][4] Group 3: Major Project Acceleration - Major infrastructure projects are being expedited, including the completion of the 750 kV transmission project around the Tarim Basin, which spans 4,197 kilometers [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 800 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction projects, supporting 1,459 projects [6] - The successful progress of these projects is crucial for stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand [6] Group 4: High-Level Opening Up - High-level international exhibitions are being successfully held, with the third Chain Expo seeing a 2.2 times increase in foreign delegations compared to the previous year [7][8] - The opening of the world's largest LEGO park in Shanghai and the launch of ExxonMobil's ethylene project in Guangdong highlight China's commitment to foreign investment [8][9] - China's proactive approach to expanding high-level opening up is seen as a source of confidence and opportunity for global development [8][9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 牛市定心丸，稳策即利好 ——730政治局会议点评 2025年7月30日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 政治局会议 | 2025年7月政治局会议 | 2025年4月政治局会议 | 2024年12月经济工作会议 | 2024年12月政治局会议 | 2024年9月政治局会议 | 2024年7月政治局会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济 | | 一年来的发展历程很不平凡，成绩令人鼓舞，特别是9 | | | | | | 指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深 | 经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振 ...