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21专访|兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委:经济新动能逐步成型
值得注意的是,制造业投资在相当大程度上缓冲了地产投资的影响。根据我们的测算,前七月房地产投 资对总体固定资产投资累计增速的影响为1.5个百分点,而同期制造业投资的拉动为2.1个百分点。 在美国对华24%关税重压下,我国7月出口却逆势增长8.0%;当房地产投资持续影响投资,装备制造却 以9.9%的增速扛起大旗——在极端天气与贸易摩擦的双重夹击中,中国经济何以实现"稳中有进",完成 全年5%的经济增长目标? 近日,针对相关问题,21世纪经济报道记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委。他表示,结合最新经 济数据来看,出口多元化与产业升级,正在重构中国经济的韧性底盘,根据其团队的估算,在考虑抢出 口、以旧换新补贴前置、房地产小阳春等因素的影响后,下半年经济或温和放缓,但以知识密集型服务 出口和服务消费为代表的经济新动能已初露头角,有望助力全年5%左右的经济增长目标实现。 经济韧性格局重构 《21世纪》:在极端天气、外需不确定性下,中国经济"稳中有进"的韧性主要来自哪些支撑? 鲁政委:一是出口多元化有效对冲了对美出口的下降。以美元计价,前七月数据显示,我国出口累计增 长6.1%,虽然对美出口在关税影响下累计下降12.6% ...
招商基金首席经济学家李湛:下半年宏观经济形势有望在政策的有力支持下保持稳定增长
人民财讯8月25日电,《金融时报》记者近日专访了招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛博士,深入剖析 宏观经济结构创新背后的深层逻辑,探讨经济增长新动力与可持续发展路径。李湛博士对2025年下半年 宏观经济的整体展望充满信心。尽管面临一定的挑战,但总体来看,2025年下半年宏观经济形势有望在 政策的有力支持下保持稳定增长。政策的协同发力将为经济增长提供坚实的基础,消费和投资的双轨并 行将推动内需市场的持续回暖,产业升级和科技创新将为经济增长注入新的动力。在全球经济格局中, 中国经济将继续发挥引领作用。通过推动产业升级和科技创新,中国经济将不断提升在全球产业链中的 地位,为全球经济复苏提供新的动力。同时,通过扩大内需市场,中国经济将为全球企业提供更多的市 场机会,促进全球经济的协同发展。此外,中国在应对通缩压力、稳定物价水平等方面的政策经验,也 将为其他国家提供有益的借鉴,推动全球经济的稳定发展。 ...
2025下半年:中国经济将在复杂环境中展现韧性——专访招商基金首席经济学家李湛
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-25 06:22
Economic Growth and Policy Support - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong growth resilience and vitality, supported by effective policy measures and a recovering domestic demand market [1][2] - Fiscal policy saw an increase in the issuance of government bonds, with over 555 billion yuan in special bonds issued in the first half of the year, an 18 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Monetary policy maintained ample liquidity, with a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reducing financing costs for enterprises and stimulating market activity [1][2] Domestic Demand and Investment - The continuous recovery of the domestic demand market provided significant support for economic growth, driven by policies such as trade-in programs and upgrades in the service sector [2] - Infrastructure investment countered the downward pressure from the real estate market, while manufacturing investment, particularly in high-tech industries, showed notable growth [2] - Despite external pressures, diversification in market expansion and policy-supported measures to shift to domestic sales helped alleviate export pressures [2] Future Economic Outlook - The overall outlook for the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of stable growth supported by strong policy measures [3] - The dual-track approach of consumption and investment is anticipated to continue driving the recovery of the domestic market, while industrial upgrades and technological innovation will inject new momentum into economic growth [3] - China's economic role in the global landscape is expected to strengthen, providing new opportunities for global enterprises and contributing to collaborative global economic development [3] Policy Directions - A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30, 2025, outlined the direction for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [4] - The coordinated upgrade of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on four key areas: technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [4] - The macroeconomic policies for the second half of 2025 will prioritize sustainable development, structural optimization, and high-quality economic growth [4]
半天成交2.1万亿,巨量换手,释放什么信号?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 05:29
Market Overview - A-shares exhibited strong performance with major indices collectively rising, including the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.86% to 3858.59 points, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices rising by 1.61% and 2.22% respectively [2] - The total market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating high participation from investors, with equity ETFs reaching a record high of 4 trillion yuan [2] - The Hong Kong market also saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.08% to 25866.49 points, driven by technology and property stocks [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market displayed notable sector rotation, with the communication sector leading with a 4.12% increase, supported by digital economy policies [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.72% due to global resource price recovery and economic recovery expectations [3] - The real estate sector rebounded collectively with a 3.47% increase, reflecting positive market response to growth-stabilizing policies [3] - In the Hong Kong market, the raw materials sector surged by 4.29%, and the property sector increased by 4.21%, driven by expectations of global liquidity easing [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The consumer sector in A-shares showed increased internal divergence, with traditional essential consumer areas performing relatively flat [4] - The banking sector lagged behind, aligning with the trend of capital migrating towards high-elasticity stocks [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector faced pressure, with some stocks experiencing volatility due to short-term earnings expectation adjustments [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is supported by a positive cycle of policy support and capital inflow, with economic recovery and industrial upgrade logic driving steady market growth [5] - Short-term market characteristics include significant sector rotation, with high-low switching trends within the technology growth sector [5] - It is recommended to strategically invest in quality stocks with policy benefits and technical barriers while being cautious of volatility risks in high-positioned stocks [5]
用电量增长看产业结构的三重变化
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-25 03:32
中国电力联合会数据显示,今年前7个月,第三产业用电量同比增长7.8%,其中,在移动互联网、大数 据、云计算等快速发展带动下,互联网和相关服务业用电量同比增长28.2%。 在大数据、云计算、人工智能等前沿技术迅猛发展的背景下,数字经济成为我国电力消费需求飙升 的"关键变量"。而对于中国经济而言,数字经济孕育出许多新业态、新模式,既能优化经济结构,也有 望成为推动经济高质量发展的新引擎。 三是能源供给结构转型加快,不断刷新最高用电负荷"极值"。 国家能源局日前发布的数据显示,7月份,全社会用电量10226亿千瓦时,同比增长8.6%。我国月度全 社会用电量数据历史性突破万亿千瓦时关口,相当于东盟国家一年的用电量。从今年前7个月的数据来 看,全国全社会用电量同比增长4.5%,继续保持平稳增长态势。 用电量是经济运行的"晴雨表",相关数据的大幅增长,虽然是多轮高温天气与工业生产稳中向好共同作 用的结果,但也蕴藏着我国产业结构的三重变化。 一是工业领域新旧动能转换加速,高技术及装备制造业合计用电量较四大高载能行业(化工、建材、钢 铁、有色)合计用电量同比增速领先。 工业是我国用电的"压舱石",第二产业用电量在全社会用电量 ...
威海:科技创新支撑高质量发展
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-08-25 01:43
威海德尔自动化设备有限公司是一家生产高档精密数控机床及智能化生产线为主的高新技术型企 业。近年来,该公司始终将研发放在重要位置,每年将营收的10%投入研发。今年,公司更是加大投 入,在数月内陆续攻克了30多项关键技术,生产业内最顶级的九轴机床产品。"这是我们首台套九轴机 床订单,技术复杂度和生产难度都是目前最高的,后续还有三台同款订单。"公司副总经理范卫东介 绍,"现在正赶制的这批设备,订单额就超过3000万元。预计今年的整体产值将达到1亿元,同比增长 20%以上。" 科技创新,之于企业是发展的持续动力,之于产业则是激活新质生产力、推动产业结构升级的核心 力量。近年来,威海将先进装备与智能制造产业集群列入八大产业集群重点发展,以高端化、智能化、 集群化为方向,推动企业装备制造由低档向高档、由数字化向智能化、由单机向制造单元和成套系统转 变,同时,搭建多个国家级、省级创新平台为企业创新提供强力支撑。 力促传统产业升级、新兴产业崛起 威海:科技创新支撑高质量发展 眼下,在位于威海南海新区的威海德尔自动化设备有限公司里,工人们正紧张忙碌地赶制定制机 床。其中,刚下线的九轴五联动机床格外引人注目,这款曾长期被日本、德 ...
下半年中国经济:政策托底驱动产业实现升级
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-25 01:35
《金融时报》记者:您提到消费市场有所回暖,那么如何看待当前消费市场的表现及未来趋势? 李湛:当前消费市场的表现呈现出一定的分化特征。一方面,消费的深层次修复依赖于居民就业和 收入的稳步改善,进而提振信心,突破原有的谨慎态度,但这一过程较为缓慢。另一方面,居民部门商 品消费对国补资金的依赖度较高。据商务部统计,2024年消费品"以旧换新"带动商品消费约1.3万亿 元,占全年社会消费品零售总额的2.67%。2025年1月至5月,该占比进一步提升至5.4%。这表明国补政 策对消费的拉动作用较为显著,但也反映出居民消费的自主性有待提升。 从消费的未来趋势来看,消费市场的增长将更多地依赖于居民收入的稳定增长和消费信心的提升。 政策方面,需要进一步优化消费环境,提升居民的消费能力和消费意愿。例如,通过增加居民收入、完 善社会保障体系、降低居民的预防性储蓄动机等方式,来促进消费市场的持续繁荣。此外,推动消费升 级,培育新的消费增长点如文旅休闲、健康养老、体育赛事、数字内容服务等领域,也是未来消费市场 的重要发展方向。政府出台的刺激消费政策在短期内取得了一定成效。例如,2024年下半年出台的大规 模"以旧换新"刺激政策,为汽 ...
铁锅炒出幸福来
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-25 00:07
走进河南华邦电器炊具有限公司的生产车间,电熔炉中的铁水正缓缓倒入模具中,自动灌铸成形, 一口口铸铁锅在生产线上整齐排列,等待着下一道工序的打磨。公司负责人汪龙站在智能生产线旁向记 者介绍,依托智能生产线与传统工艺的结合,企业每天能生产2万口到3万口铸铁锅。 如今,郏县铸铁锅产业已形成强大的集群效应。郏县铁锅产业园现有各类铁锅及配套企业65家,其 中铁锅企业46家。铸铁锅产品有30多个品种系列380多个型号,年生产各类铁锅7000万口,占全国铸铁 锅产量的70%。当地已形成了从原材料供应、制模、熔炼、压铸、抛光、氮化、装配研发到销售、物流 的完整产业链,产品远销30多个国家和地区。产业的勃兴,深刻改变了当地的经济社会面貌。目前,铸 铁锅产业直接带动当地约1.5万人就业,已成为郏县重要的支柱产业和富民产业。 需求倒逼升级 郏县铸铁锅产业的辉煌之下,痛点同样突出。首先是"有实无名"的品牌困境。 □ 本报记者 夏先清 杨子佩 铁水倒模、铸压、打磨、抛光……在河南省郏县,每天约有20万口铸铁锅走下生产线,通过四通八 达的物流网络走向海内外。中原小县如何成为产品行销全球的"铸铁锅之都"?日前,经济日报记者来到 郏县,探访 ...
链上发力 激活产业新动能
Su Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-08-24 23:19
8月8日,苏州工业园区一家光学企业的总工程师走进吴江开发区的久富农机董事长徐正华的办公 室,双方就机器人的视觉产品展开洽谈,会谈务实且有效,共赢前景清晰而广阔。 近几个月来,在久富农机,这样的高层对接格外频繁。起因就在于今年4月21日,吴江区工信局主 办的农机装备产业链供需对接活动在久富农机举办——如同一场精准的"技术相亲",这场供需对接,让 区内外农机装备产业链企业进行了供给和需求的高效匹配。 "过去是广撒网,现在是精准对接。"徐正华的感慨,道出了政府搭建精准对接平台的意义和价值。 既解企业眼前之需,又筑产业长远之基。 "2个多小时的交流,不仅让童装企业精准捕捉到面料创新方向与供应链响应节奏,也让面料企业了 解了童装在功能性、环保性、设计感上的核心诉求。"李小美说,品牌方对"抗菌+防晒"复合功能面料的 今年以来,围绕"智汇万企 链在吴江"的服务品牌,吴江工信局已连续举办了43场产业链对接活 动,不仅让企业快速找到产业伙伴、应用场景与解决方案,更在"即时合作"之外,让吴江的产业链在精 准协同中不断强健。 解眼前之需,高规格搭建产业对接大平台 在当今经济发展格局中,产业链的完备性与协同性已成为区域竞争力的关键所 ...
福莱新材:营收规模创同期历史新高,产业升级持续投入
Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 1.334 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, achieving the highest revenue in the same period historically [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 51 million yuan, a decrease of 19.58% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition in the advertising inkjet printing materials market and the ramp-up of new projects [3] - The revenue from label printing materials reached 419 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.42%, accounting for 31% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 1.3 percentage points to 20.6%, becoming the largest profit contributor [2] Group 2 - The company achieved a revenue of 93 million yuan from functional base film materials, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.87%, with a gross margin increase of 2.79 percentage points to 5.49% [2] - The company has made significant technological breakthroughs and commercial progress in the flexible sensor field, establishing the first pilot production line and launching the first and second generation of flexible tactile sensor products [4][6] - The company invested 54 million yuan in R&D in the first half of 2025, representing 4.1% of revenue, which is the highest R&D expenditure for the same period since its listing [4] Group 3 - The company added 6 new patents during the reporting period, including 4 invention patents, bringing the total authorized patents to 118, with 73 being invention patents [6] - The company is transitioning its product line from traditional adhesive tapes and release films to higher value-added areas such as optical protective films, and has successfully developed UV release adhesive for mass production [6]