稳增长方案出炉，顺周期持续收益 20251124 摘要 2025 年汽车行业预计销量达 3,200 万辆，同比增长约 3%，新能源汽 车销量预计达 1,550 万辆，渗透率达 50%。关注补贴退坡后销售持续 性及中国新能源汽车全球竞争力，以及车载机器人等新领域发展。 钢铁行业未来将注重供需平衡、产业结构优化、绿色低碳及数字化转型。 地产下行背景下，企业向低碳冶金、新材料转型，新能源汽车用钢等需 求提升，几内亚铁矿石发货有望改善利润。 建材行业重点发展绿色建材业务，收入目标超 3,000 亿元，聚焦钢结构 及一体化成型。轻工行业聚焦智能家居、中老年/婴儿/时尚/体育用品， 引领消费升级，为企业提供第二增长曲线。 电力装备是明年重点发展领域，增速目标 6%左右，国产化率提高到 7%，龙头企业收入需达 10%。新能源入市、电网安全需求及海外算力 需求提升，该领域具备良好前景。 2026 年电力设备市场关注出海/出口、电网改造及电子信息产业相关电 力设备。AI 应用和国家超级算力节点中心的大规模投资将带来新的投资 机会。 Q&A 2025 年中国推出的稳增长工作方案与 2023 年的有何不同？ 2025 年的稳增长工 ...

而今，放眼曾以"煤都"著称的山西省大同市，只见光伏板如蓝色波涛连绵涌动，数据中心里的指示灯似 璀璨星河不停闪烁，古城墙下传统文化与现代文明交相辉映。 面对资源型城市转型的时代考题，大同市以一场深刻的城市革命，书写着能源之城绿色蝶变、算力之城 筑基未来、文化之城脉动新生的优异答卷。 第一张答卷：能源之城绿色蝶变 "十四五"时期，大同以"一张蓝图绘到底"的韧劲，实现从单一依赖传统能源向构建多元互补、清洁高 效、安全可靠的新型能源体系转变。作为国家重要的能源基地，大同始终端稳能源饭碗，原煤年产量稳 定在1.5亿吨以上，2021—2024年累计生产原煤6.4亿吨，其中以长协价保供电煤4.3亿吨，为能源安全提 供坚实支撑。 在传统能源升级上，大同以智能化破局。中煤大同能源公司调度中心内，工作人员轻点鼠标便可洞察井 下500米深处的实时工况，实现"减人不减产、增效更安全"。目前，全市已建成14座智能化煤矿，先进 产能占比超85%，9家燃煤电厂完成超低排放改造，煤电清洁高效利用水平持续提升。 文化"破圈"的密码，深植于大同厚重的历史积淀。2000多年的建城史中，多民族文化的交融碰撞，塑造 了大同独特的城市气质。云冈石窟的万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress and achievements of Hebei Province in promoting new industrialization since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of industrial development as a foundation for modernization. Group 1: Industrial Economic Growth - Hebei's total industrial added value increased from 11,813.5 billion to 14,908.5 billion from 2020 to 2024, with the manufacturing added value accounting for 26.3% of GDP in 2024, surpassing the national average by 1.4 percentage points [1] - The annual growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries is 6.2%, with operating income rising from 4.21 trillion to 5.17 trillion [1] - The province has developed advanced steel and high-end equipment industries, with several industry-leading companies emerging [1] Group 2: Quality Upgrade of Leading Industries - Hebei has implemented 10,552 key industrial and technological transformation projects, enhancing the competitiveness of steel products and transitioning companies from manufacturers to comprehensive service providers [2] - The production of new energy vehicles in Hebei increased by 5.3 times from 2020 to 2024, while the robot industry saw revenue growth exceeding 40% for two consecutive years [2] - The proportion of high-tech industry added value in large-scale industrial added value rose from 19.4% in 2020 to 22.3% in 2024 [2] Group 3: Development of Characteristic Industries - Hebei is focusing on building 107 provincial-level key characteristic industrial clusters, promoting shared manufacturing to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3] - A total of 90 clusters have established 166 shared factories and over 10,000 shared devices, involving more than 13,000 enterprises [3] - The province has nurtured 589 "leader" enterprises within these clusters, driving collaborative development among over 3,200 cluster enterprises [3] Group 4: Enhancement of Quality Enterprises - By the end of 2024, the number of large-scale industrial enterprises in Hebei increased by 4,286 compared to the end of 2020, totaling 18,525 [4] - Hebei ranks fifth nationally in the number of companies included in the 2025 China Top 500 Private Enterprises and China Top 500 Manufacturing Enterprises [4] - The province has established a nurturing mechanism for high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises, with 15,500 high-tech enterprises and 7,014 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises cultivated [4] Group 5: Integration of Technological Innovation - Hebei has recognized over 10,000 industrial enterprise R&D institutions and established several manufacturing innovation centers [5] - The province has made significant breakthroughs in key technologies, with R&D intensity in large-scale manufacturing enterprises reaching 1.6%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points since 2020 [5] Group 6: Digital Transformation and Empowerment - Hebei has implemented 3,939 provincial-level digital transformation projects, creating 155 5G factories and 14 national exemplary smart factories [6] - The province's integration level of information technology and industrialization reached 63.8 in 2024, ranking ninth nationally [6] - A total of 371 industrial internet platforms have been cultivated, connecting 15.58 million industrial devices [6] Group 7: Green Transformation Progress - Hebei has achieved a 26.9% reduction in energy consumption and a 27.6% reduction in water consumption per unit of industrial added value since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The province has implemented over 2,000 green technology transformation projects, promoting the widespread adoption of green products [7] - Hebei has established 1,107 provincial-level green factories and 309 national green factories, leading the nation in green manufacturing initiatives [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new growth momentum in China's economy through enhanced fiscal policies, support for innovation, and investment in key industries, while ensuring the stability of employment and market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy is increasingly proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting economic recovery [3][4]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate significant retail sales [4][15]. - The central government plans to increase its technology funding to 398.12 billion yuan in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, focusing on core technology and strategic industries [5][21]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government aims to enhance domestic demand by boosting consumption and effective investment, with a focus on key sectors and weak links [13][16]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, completing 42.7% of the annual target [16]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a 10.3% increase in industrial investment, driven by government support for technological upgrades [17]. Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment support, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year [27][28]. - Education spending increased by 5.9% to 2.15 trillion yuan, with a focus on improving quality and access to education [29][30]. - Basic public health service funding reached 804.35 billion yuan, enhancing health management and disease prevention efforts [32][33]. Group 4: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The government is implementing measures to mitigate financial risks, including the management of local government debt and the promotion of real estate market stability [7][9]. - A comprehensive approach to fiscal management is being adopted, including reforms in tax systems and budget execution to ensure effective use of resources [7][12]. Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The report highlights the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial development, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and supporting key technology projects [20][21]. - Funding for basic research is set to increase by 12.1%, emphasizing the need for original innovation and support for research institutions [21][22]. Group 6: Environmental and Social Development - The government is committed to ecological protection and sustainable development, with significant funding allocated for pollution control and ecosystem restoration [38][39]. - Social welfare programs are being expanded, with increased support for vulnerable populations and efforts to improve living standards [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting green trade to enhance trade optimization, support the achievement of carbon neutrality goals, and better serve global climate governance [1]. Group 1: Green Trade Implementation - The implementation opinions represent the first specialized policy document in the field of green trade, highlighting innovative leadership and focusing on existing weaknesses in China's green trade development [1]. - Key issues identified include the shortcomings in enterprises' green low-carbon development capabilities, the untapped carbon reduction potential in logistics, and the inadequacy of the supporting guarantee system [1]. Group 2: International Cooperation and Standards - Over 50 economies have positively responded to China's initiative on the "International Economic and Trade Cooperation Framework for Digital Economy and Green Development" [2]. - The recent China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade agreement includes a dedicated chapter on green economy and prioritizes green trade as a cooperation area [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce is working with relevant departments to improve green product standards, certification, and labeling systems, aiming for mutual recognition of standards with major trading partners [2]. Group 3: Green Product and Industry Development - The implementation opinions emphasize promoting green design and production among foreign trade enterprises [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance the promotion of green design and manufacturing, focusing on the entire lifecycle from design to recycling [3]. - By 2030, the target is for the output value of green factories to account for 40% of total output, with initiatives to cultivate zero-carbon factories [3]. Group 4: Financial Support for Green Services - The People's Bank of China will promote the application of green finance and transition finance standards, supporting innovative financing methods [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase support for production service sectors related to research and design, logistics, carbon emission certification, and resource recycling [4].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation opinions on expanding green trade aim to promote trade optimization and upgrade, assist in achieving the "dual carbon" goals, and better serve global climate governance [1] Group 1: Green Trade Development - Green low-carbon products are becoming a new driving force for foreign trade development, with global market size for electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2030, five times the current scale [1] - The implementation opinions are the first specialized policy document in the field of green trade, focusing on weak links in China's green trade development, such as the shortcomings in enterprises' green low-carbon development capabilities and the untapped carbon reduction potential in logistics [1][3] Group 2: International Cooperation and Standards - China has proposed the "International Economic and Trade Cooperation Framework Initiative for Digital Economy and Green Development," which has received positive responses from over 50 economies [2] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the inclusion of trade and environmental content in free trade agreements, such as the recently signed China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade protocol, which establishes a chapter on green economy and prioritizes green trade [2] Group 3: Green Product Standards and Certification - The Ministry of Commerce is working with relevant departments to improve the standards, certification, and labeling system for green products, accelerating standard mutual recognition with major trading partners [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to expand certification from products to industrial and supply chains, revising the "Green Product Certification and Labeling Management Measures" to establish a strict and transparent regulatory mechanism [2] Group 4: Green Design and Manufacturing - The implementation opinions encourage foreign trade enterprises to engage in green design and production, with a focus on promoting green design concepts in industries such as electronics and automobiles [3] - By 2030, the output value of green factories is expected to account for 40% of total output, with initiatives to cultivate zero-carbon factories and enhance energy-saving and carbon-reduction potential [3] Group 5: Financial Support for Green Services - The People's Bank of China will promote the application of green finance and transition finance standards, supporting innovative financing methods for green service trade enterprises [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase financing support for production service links such as research and design, logistics operations, and carbon emission certification, thereby reducing financing thresholds and costs for light-asset green service trade enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation opinions on expanding green trade aim to promote trade optimization and upgrade, assist in achieving the "dual carbon" goals, and better serve global climate governance [1] Group 1: Green Trade Development - Green low-carbon products are becoming a new driving force for foreign trade development, with global market size for electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2030, five times the current scale [1] - The implementation opinions are the first specialized policy document in the field of green trade, focusing on weak links in China's green trade development, such as corporate low-carbon development capabilities and logistics carbon reduction potential [1][2] - The opinions propose measures to create a favorable international environment for green trade, including strengthening international communication and promoting the formulation and mutual recognition of relevant standards [1][2] Group 2: Green Product Standards and Certification - The Ministry of Commerce is working with relevant departments to improve green product standards, certification, and labeling systems, and accelerate standard mutual recognition with major trading partners [2] - The focus will be on expanding certification from products to industrial and supply chains, and establishing a strict and transparent regulatory mechanism for green product certification [2][3] Group 3: Green Design and Manufacturing - The implementation opinions encourage foreign trade enterprises to adopt green design and production, with a focus on lightweight, non-toxic, long-lasting, and recyclable design concepts [3] - By 2030, the output value of green factories is expected to account for 40% of total output, with initiatives to cultivate zero-carbon factories [3] - The development of green supply chains will be promoted, with large enterprises playing a leading role in increasing the proportion of green factories among suppliers [3] Group 4: Financial Support for Green Services Trade - The People's Bank of China will promote the application of green finance and transition finance standards, supporting innovative financing methods for green service trade [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase financing support for production service links such as research and design, logistics operations, and carbon emission certification [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of green trade policies aims to promote trade optimization and support the achievement of "dual carbon" goals, enhancing global climate governance [1] Group 1: Green Trade Development - Green low-carbon products are emerging as a new driving force for foreign trade, with global market size for electric vehicles, solar, and wind energy expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2030, five times the current scale [1] - The implementation opinions represent the first specialized policy document in the field of green trade, focusing on addressing weaknesses in China's green trade development, such as corporate low-carbon capabilities and logistics carbon reduction potential [1] Group 2: International Cooperation and Standards - Over 50 economies have positively responded to China's initiative on the "International Economic and Trade Cooperation Framework for Digital Economy and Green Development" [2] - The recent China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade includes a dedicated chapter on green economy and prioritizes green trade as a cooperation area [2] - Efforts are underway to improve green product standards, certification, and labeling systems, aiming for mutual recognition of standards with major trading partners [2] Group 3: Green Product and Industry Development - The implementation opinions emphasize promoting green design and production among foreign trade enterprises, with a focus on sectors like electronics and automotive [3] - By 2030, the output value of green factories is expected to account for 40% of total production, with initiatives to cultivate zero-carbon factories [3] - Actions are being taken to enhance green supply chains, encouraging large enterprises to support green procurement and increase the proportion of green factories among suppliers [3] Group 4: Financial Support for Green Services - The People's Bank of China plans to promote the application of green finance and transition finance standards, supporting innovative financing methods for green service trade [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase support for production service sectors related to research and design, logistics, carbon emission certification, and recycling [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement a green factory quality improvement and expansion plan, aiming for the output value of green factories at national, provincial, and municipal levels to reach 40% by 2030, while promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction potential in green factories [1] Group 1: Green Factory Initiative - MIIT will accelerate the transition from benchmark leadership to larger-scale promotion of green factories [1] - The initiative includes cultivating a number of zero-carbon factories [1] Group 2: Green Development Strategy - The MIIT will promote green design and manufacturing, focusing on the entire lifecycle from product design to recycling [1] - Emphasis will be placed on lightweight, non-toxic, long-lasting, and easily recyclable design concepts, particularly in industries such as electronics and automotive [1] Group 3: Green Supply Chain and Industrial Parks - A green supply chain enhancement action will be launched, encouraging large enterprises to lead the way through green procurement policies [1] - Plans to implement a green industrial park enhancement initiative to promote the green transformation of high-tech zones and industrial parks, with a focus on developing zero-carbon parks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has issued the "Implementation Opinions on Expanding Green Trade," marking the first specialized policy document in the field of green trade in China, emphasizing innovation-driven characteristics [1][3]. Group 1: Green Trade Development - The "Implementation Opinions" focus on addressing weaknesses in China's green trade development, including the shortcomings in enterprises' green low-carbon development capabilities and the need to explore carbon reduction potential in logistics [3]. - The document outlines four key measures: enhancing the green low-carbon development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises, expanding the import and export of green low-carbon products and technologies, creating a favorable international environment for green trade, and establishing a robust support system for green trade [3]. Group 2: Market Potential and Performance - Green low-carbon products are identified as a new driving force for foreign trade development, with international institutions predicting that the global market for electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy will reach $2.1 trillion by 2030, five times the current scale [6]. - In recent years, China's exports of green low-carbon products have shown significant growth, with wind turbine components increasing by over 30% in the first three quarters of this year, and photovoltaic products exceeding 200 billion yuan in export value for four consecutive years [6]. Group 3: Support for SMEs - The Ministry of Commerce aims to assist small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in overcoming challenges related to green low-carbon transformation, focusing on enhancing their green competitiveness through improved services, market expansion platforms, and promoting best practices [7][9]. Group 4: Green Manufacturing and Design - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has created 451 green design enterprises and over 4,000 green products, with plans to increase the output value of national, provincial, and municipal green factories to 40% by 2030 [11][13]. - The strategy includes promoting green design, building green factories, cultivating green supply chains, and developing green industrial parks to support the green trade ecosystem [13]. Group 5: Financial Support for Green Trade - The People's Bank of China is focusing on supporting green service trade development through green finance, including green credit, bonds, and equity funds, while lowering financing barriers for light-asset and green service trade enterprises [15][17]. - The bank plans to enhance sustainable finance standards and encourage financial institutions to provide targeted financial services to support green trade [17]. Group 6: Green Product Certification - The State Administration for Market Regulation will advance the green product certification system to support foreign trade enterprises in their green development efforts [19][21]. - The approach includes expanding certification to cover industry chains and supply chains, strengthening regulatory measures, promoting green product certification, and enhancing international cooperation for mutual recognition of green product certifications [21].