1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term rebound [15] - **Gold**: Short - term market volatility increases, and the risk of correction after a rapid rise increases [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Fed officials' attitude change repairs short - term market sentiment, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [20] - **Stock Index Futures**: Wait for the Politburo meeting in April to set the future policy direction [25] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: After a sharp short - term decline, market sentiment is released. The near - month contract has weak performance in delivery games, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [27] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices remain volatile for the time being. Soybean meal spot is strong in the short term but is expected to decline gradually in May [31] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: In the short term, the oil market lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [34] - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly under the influence of the external market in Q2 2025. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the Brazilian crushing production [39] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: The current CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Long the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term. The 5 - 7 spread is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities [42] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious with light positions and pay attention to spot rebound hedging opportunities [46] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: Pay attention to the PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spread opportunities [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Partially stop profit on previous short positions. Do not go long on the left side. Consider going long on the right side after clear signals appear [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Adopt a bearish approach and pay attention to shorting opportunities at the upper edge of the range [51] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. Adopt a band - trading strategy and pay attention to the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage strategy [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Hold previous long positions. Investors without positions should wait and see and pay attention to position management [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Wait and see in the short term. Hold previous long positions and wait for high - selling opportunities. Hold the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Pay attention to the mid - line rebound shorting opportunities near the moving average. Adopt the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage strategy in the mid - line [67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [71] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: The futures price is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [74] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Pay attention to the implementation of the industry's joint production reduction [77] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The rebound of caustic soda spot weakens, and the futures price falls. Pay attention to macro - impacts [79] - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The short - term market is dominated by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [81] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on commodity demand and domestic stimulus policies [82] - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: CEA prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [85] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87] 2. Core Views - Trump changed his stance on firing Powell in advance, hoping that the Fed would cut interest rates quickly. Market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded [14]. - Spot gold prices fell after rising to $3500. Market speculative fever cooled down. Trump's statement of not firing Powell led to a rebound in overseas market risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. In the Chinese stock market, on April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the market rose slightly with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [3]. - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market was sensitive to overseas trade risks and was in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality [4]. - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. The polysilicon contract valuation is low, and positive spread opportunities can be关注 [5]. - US API crude oil inventory data affected the market, and oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the US economy is in good shape, but there are concerns about corporate investment and consumer spending [12]. - The US, Ukraine, and European allies will hold talks on a peace plan. Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell and hopes for faster interest - rate cuts. Market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar index rebounded [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said the cryptocurrency industry needs clear regulatory policies. Spot gold prices fell after reaching a high. The end of the market driven by end - of - the - world options and Trump's statement led to a rebound in risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. US officials signaled a relaxation of tariff policies, and Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell. Market sentiment improved in the short term, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple regions in China are planning to introduce a new round of stimulus policies. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. On April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is weak. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but further increases are difficult. The supply of coke is relatively high, and inventories are decreasing. The coking coal market is under pressure, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ADM will close a soybean processing plant in South Carolina. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of April were 9423 million tons. The domestic soybean meal spot is in short supply, and futures prices remain volatile [28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20 increased by 3.64% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of April 19 was 92.5%. The oil market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India plans to increase sugarcane production by 7% in the next three years. Pakistan's sugar exports in the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season increased significantly. A sugar factory in Guangxi cleared its inventory ahead of schedule. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in Q2 2025 [35][39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable. Due to high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the market is in a stalemate. After the export restriction policy was lifted, starch exports increased, and the futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is rising. The average national corn price on April 21 was 2198.33 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [41][42]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. India imposed a 12% temporary safeguard tax on flat steel products. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market is in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality. It is recommended to be cautious with light positions [43][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. It is expected that polysilicon production will increase in May, and inventory will decrease. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In March, the export of silicone increased significantly. The price of industrial silicon has fallen below the cash cost line. Some manufacturers plan to reduce production. It is recommended to partially stop profit on previous short positions and wait for clear signals to go long [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium mine in Inner Mongolia obtained a mining license. Some salt factories are undergoing maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, the decline in ore prices makes it difficult for prices to rebound. Adopt a bearish approach [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A copper mine project in Zambia was approved for mining, and a company in Yingtan plans to expand its recycled copper project. Macro - factors are less negative for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. Consider a band - trading strategy and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April, which decreased. Stainless steel mills are reducing production. The price of nickel is expected to repair its valuation. Hold previous long positions and wait and see for investors without positions [55][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead refineries in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. The supply of lead may decline earlier than demand. Short - term tightness is possible. It is recommended to wait and see and hold previous long positions [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc - mining companies' production in Q1 2025 decreased. The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with demand being weaker. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [63][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased. The US announced new sanctions on Iran. Oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news and are expected to range - bound [68][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In March 2025, urea imports decreased, and exports increased. The futures price of urea is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [72][74]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable, with some slight decreases. The polyester raw material market is weak. The supply of bottle chips may increase under high - capacity operation. Pay attention to the implementation of industry - wide production reduction [75][77]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On April 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was good. The futures price of caustic soda fell. Pay attention to macro - impacts [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp weakened. The futures price of pulp was affected by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [82]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration released the "China Green Power Certificate Development Report (2024)". The CEA price is under pressure due to a large supply surplus. It is expected to continue to decline in the short term [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On April 22, the soda ash market in Shahe adjusted weakly. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is not strong. Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On April 22, the price of float glass in Shahe was stable. The glass futures price fluctuated slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87].

知情人士透露，加密货币交易所币安（Binance）的高管上个月与美国财政部官员会面，讨论了放松美 国政府对该公司的监管，同时该公司也在探索与特朗普家族的一家加密货币企业达成商业交易。（华尔 街日报） ...

$$\bigoplus_{i\in\Lambda}\{\exists_{i\in\Lambda}\mathbb{Q}_{i}$$ 3月2日深夜，美国总统特朗普表示，XRP、Solana（SOL）和Cardano（ADA）将被纳入美国加密货币储备。 受此影响，瑞波币（XRP）向上突破2.93美元/枚，涨超30%；索拉纳（SOL）突破178美元/枚，日内涨超24%；艾达币（ADA）日内涨近72%。比特币向上突 破9.4万美元/枚，日内涨近10%。 加密货币的剧烈波动，又导致不少人爆仓。Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓人数超过17万人，爆仓金额超过8亿美元。 当地时间2月27日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）宣布，已与Coinbase和Coinbase Global达成联合协议，撤销对这两家公司正在进行的民事执法行动。此前1 月21日，美国证券交易委员会宣布成立加密货币特别工作组，该工作组致力于帮助制定全面、清晰的加密货币资产监管框架。鉴于加密货币特别工作组的工 作尚未完成，委员会将撤销此案。 部分综合自券商中国 责编：叶舒筠 | 1小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | --- ...