Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market saw a slight increase on August 8, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) rising by 0.13% and the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) increasing by 0.14% [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 122 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major government bonds decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.69% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.914% [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the bond market experienced adjustments, with a decline in small and medium-sized banks' enthusiasm for bond investments, particularly in April and May [2] - However, in July, the enthusiasm for bond trading among small and medium-sized banks rebounded, with total trading volume exceeding 17.24 trillion yuan, marking a new monthly high since early 2025 [2] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that small banks will continue to increase their bond holdings, acting as stabilizers in the bond market [2] Group 3: Investment Products - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes for investors [3] - This product serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and duration adjustment tool, making it attractive for investors in both short-term and long-term scenarios [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on TL2509 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The main reason is that the market interest rate is close to the policy rate, and the moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, causing the market interest rate to decline since August and the Treasury bond futures to rebound after hitting the bottom. However, the obvious stock - bond seesaw effect and the rapid rise in the stock market's risk appetite suppress the bond market demand and restrict the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: Expectation of loose monetary policy exists, but short - term interest rate cut probability is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising and then falling yesterday, with narrow - range oscillation. Market interest rates have declined since August due to the moderately loose monetary policy. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect restricts the rebound space of Treasury bond futures. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

规模方面，30年国债ETF博时最新规模达149.72亿元。 资金流入方面，30年国债ETF博时最新资金净流出2.35亿元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"4.84亿元，日均净流入达9688.76万 元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时前一交易日融资净买额达2228.31万元，最新融资余额达1.11亿元。 截至8月4日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨9.39%，指数债券型基金排名7/416，居于前1.68%。从收益能力看，截至2025年8月4日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为10/6，上涨月份平均收益率为2.09%，月盈利百分比为 62.50%，月盈利概率为68.15%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年8月4日，30年国债ETF博时近1年超越基准年化收益为0.05%。 回撤方面，截至2025年8月4日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%，相对基准回撤1.28%。 截至2025年8月5日 14:02，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0. ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Major Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center of Heyian Futures on August 1, 2025, presenting the performance of global asset markets [1]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes on July 31, 2025. For example, the US was at 4.376% with a latest change of 0.004%, a one - week change of - 0.022%, a one - month change of 0.028%, and a one - year change of 0.124%. Japan was at 3.958% with a latest change of 0.015%, a one - week change of 0.041%, a one - month change of 0.075%, and a one - year change of - 0.534% [2]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury yield on July 31, 2025, was 3.860% with a latest change of - 0.050%, a one - week change of 0.030%, a one - month change of - 0.090%, and a one - year change of - 0.630%. Japan was at 0.817% with a latest change of - 0.006%, a one - week change of - 0.027%, a one - month change of 0.074%, and a one - year change of 0.471% [2]. Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of USD against the Brazilian real was 5.600 with a latest change of 0.52%, a one - week change of 1.45%, a one - month change of 3.54%, and a one - year change of 0.26%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.218 with a latest change of 1.22%, a one - week change of 3.33%, a one - month change of 4.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.94% [2]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was at 7.200 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of 0.04%, a one - week change of 0.63%, a one - month change of 0.41%, and a one - year change of - 1.03%. The offshore RMB was at 7.209 with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of 0.78%, a one - month change of 0.54%, and a one - year change of - 1.10% [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On July 31, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6339.390 with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 0.38%, a one - month change of 0.96%, and a one - year change of 14.11%. The German DAX was at 24065.470 with a latest change of - 0.81%, a one - week change of - 0.95%, a one - month change of 0.55%, and a one - year change of 29.68% [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The Malaysian stock index was at 1513.250 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.74%, a one - week change of - 1.76%, a one - month change of - 2.31%, and a one - year change of - 7.14%. The Australian stock index was at 8999.022 with a latest change of - 0.18%, a one - week change of 0.22%, a one - month change of 1.87%, and a one - year change of 9.63% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels showed various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of 0.43%, a one - month change of 0.27%, and a one - year change of 5.64% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing price of A - shares was 3573.21 with a decline of 1.18%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4075.59 with a decline of 1.82% [4]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.19 with a环比 change of - 0.20. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.89 with a环比 change of - 0.10 [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.66 with a环比 change of 0.01. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.16 with a环比 change of 0.05 [4]. Fund Flow - The latest value of the A - share fund flow was - 1635.89, and the 5 - day average was - 973.63 [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19360.35, with a环比 change of 917.56 [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of the IF contract was - 18.59, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.46% [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 Treasury futures was 108.485 with a rise of 0.16%. The closing price of the TF00 was 105.725 with a rise of 0.08% [5]. - The R001 fund rate was 1.5634% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5806% with a daily change of - 3.00 BP [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous upward trend, with IC and IM performing stronger than IF and IH. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term oversold rebound opportunities catalyzed by policies, but be vigilant against fluctuations caused by economic data falling short of expectations. It is recommended to participate with a light position and closely follow the central bank's medium - term lending facility operations and real estate policy trends [5][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - In July, the domestic stock index futures market continued to strengthen. The month - on - month increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 4.14%, 3.27%, 6.16%, and 6.33% respectively [5]. - Last month, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises remained in an expansion state [8][9][13]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of July 31, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.39 times, 72.8%, and 1.41 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.48 times, 85.13%, and 1.27 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.78 times, 73.39%, and 2.06 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 Index were 41.3 times, 66.34%, and 2.29 times respectively [14]. 3.4 Other Data - The "total market value/GDP" quantile in historical data was 77.08%. On July 30, 2025, the "total market value/GDP" quantiles in the recent 10 - year data were 81.07% and 76.31% [25]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In July, the stock index futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the upward foundation was still unstable. The market contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. In August, the stock index may maintain a structural market. One can focus on short - term opportunities but be cautious about risks [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various government bond futures contracts, indicating a positive trend in their prices [1] - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.08% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract saw an increase of 0.17% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced the highest rise at 0.57% [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bond yields generally rose by about 4bp; Treasury bond futures closed sharply lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.78% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.25%. The yields of bank "secondary and perpetual bonds" generally rose by about 4bp. The central bank made continuous net injections in the open market, and the short - term liquidity in the inter - bank market further eased. The weighted average rate of DR001 dropped by about 10bp to around 1.36%. Recently, the sharply falling commodity futures showed signs of stabilizing, and the stock market continued to fluctuate strongly, expanding its gains in the afternoon, suppressing the risk - aversion sentiment. In addition, rumors about the Politburo meeting focusing on "anti - involution" also had a certain negative impact. Continued attention should be paid to the final meeting content and the progress of China - US negotiations [3] - On July 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 449.2 billion yuan, and the winning volume was 449.2 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on that day, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan for the day [3] - The main basis of TS is 0.0139, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TF is 0.0286, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of T is 0.1589, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TL is 0.3153, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3] - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively; it is neutral [4] - The main contract of TS is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of TF is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of T is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - The main contract of TS has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of TF has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of T has a net long position, and the long position decreases [5] - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded, the year - on - year CPI turned positive, and the core CPI continued to rise. China's LPR in July remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In the first half of the year, the total financial volume increased reasonably, and China's credit total... (incomplete information in the original text) [6] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contract market element table shows that for T2509, the current price is 108.130, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 77,800, an open interest of 187,214, a daily open - interest change of - 625, and the CTD bond is 240013.IB; for TF2509, the current price is 105.545, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 59,900, an open interest of 148,330, a daily open - interest change of - 32, and the CTD bond is 240001.IB; for TS2509, the current price is 102.302, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 40,300, an open interest of 98,505, a daily open - interest change of - 2929, and the CTD bond is 240012.IB; for TL2509, the current price is 117.87, down 0.78%, with a trading volume of 140,800, an open interest of 120,771, a daily open - interest change of + 488, and the CTD bond is 200012.IB [9] Group 3: Cash Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank Treasury bond yields and Treasury bond term spreads, but specific numerical analysis is not clearly summarized in the given text [10][14] Group 4: Basis Analysis - There are basis analysis charts for T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 CTD bonds, showing the basis trends from December 16, 2024, to May 20, 2025 [17][18][20]

国债期货早盘开盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.05%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.06%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.21%。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Market Overview - The bond futures market experienced a decline across the board, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.78% to 117.870 yuan, and the 10-year main contract down by 0.25% to 108.130 yuan [1] - The yields on medium to long-term government bonds rose significantly, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 3 basis points to 1.745%, and the 30-year government bond yield rising by 3.7 basis points to 1.96% [1][2] Economic Sentiment - Market concerns are heightened regarding the potential introduction of anti-involution policies and measures to stabilize the real estate sector, coinciding with a rebound in the equity market [2] - Despite a decrease in interbank funding prices, non-bank funding remains high, with the average R001 rate at 1.65% [2] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 4,492 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 2,344 billion yuan for the day [2] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 10.1 basis points to 1.366% [2][3] Bond Auction Results - Recent bond auctions showed varying results, with the 2-year bonds yielding 1.598% and 1.7045% for different issuances, indicating strong demand with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.2 and 3.16 respectively [5] - The non-financial corporate bond market saw significant declines in certain bonds, with H0 Zhongjun 02 dropping by 78.16% [6] Credit Market Trends - The credit market displayed mixed performance, with some non-financial corporate bonds experiencing notable gains, while others faced substantial losses [6][7] - AAA-rated certificates of deposit showed demand at rates between 1.55% and 1.68%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day [7]