Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by the stock market, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - Due to the rising repo rate and the oscillating Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis. For hedging, considering the medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year; monthly PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.4%, down 0.4% (-4.55%); manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8% (-1.61%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1238, up 0.003 (+0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.50, up 0.02 (+1.56%); DR007 was 1.51, up 0.01 (+0.89%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+0.40%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.00 (+0.40%) [10]. II. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of the Treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance [13][16][19][22]. III. Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple figures are provided to show the money market situation, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local bond issuance [28][33][34]. IV. Spread Overview - Multiple figures are provided to show various spread situations, such as the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [33][38][43]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of two - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][45][52]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of five - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of ten - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied yield and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple figures are provided to show the situation of thirty - year Treasury bond futures, including the implied yield and Treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, and recommends holding medium - term long positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On Tuesday, bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning, then declined, and maintained a narrow - range oscillation in the afternoon. Only TS slightly declined, while the rest slightly rose [1]. - The money market remained tight, with DR001 rising to 1.51%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [1]. Important News - The State Council General Office issued "Several Measures to Further Promote Private Investment". - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that it would create better development conditions for business entities [2]. Market Judgment - Today's news was light. The A - share market closed lower, and the bond market did not benefit significantly. - The money market remained tight. Despite increased open - market injections, money market rates continued to rise. The short - end yields of cash bonds rose slightly, while the medium - and long - end were less affected. - The market is not worried about liquidity but lacks trading hotspots. It is difficult to change the oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to monetary and credit data tomorrow [2]. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 11 Price | 2025 - 11 - 10 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 11 - 11 Position (Hand) | 2025 - 11 - 10 Position (Hand) | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.46 | 102.466 | - 0.006 | 85266 | 85232 | 34 | | TF2512 | 105.935 | 105.93 | 0.005 | 166730 | 172702 | - 5972 | | T2512 | 108.495 | 108.485 | 0.01 | 288671 | 291294 | - 2623 | | TL2512 | 116.34 | 116.3 | 0.04 | 183726 | 184847 | - 1121 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0211 | - 0.0267 | 0.0056 | TS Main Transaction (Hand) | 28422 | 24929 | 3493 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0235 | - 0.025 | 0.0015 | TF Main Transaction (Hand) | 48332 | 49109 | - 777 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0202 | 0.0205 | - 0.0003 | T Main Transaction (Hand) | 52193 | 58830 | - 6637 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1186 | 0.1987 | - 0.0801 | TL Main Transaction (Hand) | 73470 | 96097 | - 22627 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic fundamentals' continuous repair and the implementation of broad fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.475，跌0.01%，成交量52193，减少6637；TF主力收盘价105.935，持平，成交量48332，减少777；TS主力收盘价102.462，持平，成交量28422，增加3493；TL主力收盘价116.300，持平，成交量73470，减少22627 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，增加0.00；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.83，减少0.03；T2512 - 2603价差0.23，增加0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.54，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.02；TS2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.00；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.01，持平；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.47，减少0.00 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量225549，减少5844；T前20名多头234412，减少2128；T前20名空头255127，减少2085；T前20名净空仓20715，增加43；TF主力持仓量131787，减少6611；TF前20名多头131668，减少3580；TF前20名空头151475，减少5572；TF前20名净空仓19807，减少1992；TS主力持仓量65702，减少1663；TS前20名多头67457，增加184；TS前20名空头78722，增加845；TS前20名净空仓11265，增加661；TL主力持仓量125664，减少3486；TL前20名多头135731，减少1371；TL前20名空头155816，减少1648；TL前20名净空仓20085，减少277 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.5601，涨0.0330；250018.IB(4y）净价99.0955，持平；250003.IB(4y）净价99.6141，涨0.0104；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，涨0.0184；220016.IB(1.7y)净价101.8925，涨0.0140；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0447，涨0.0078 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 210005.IB(17y) 1y收益率1.3950，涨0.3342；210014.IB(18y) 3y收益率1.4375，跌0.0022；5y收益率1.5800，跌0.25bp；7y收益率1.6985，涨3.85bp；10y收益率1.8050，跌0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4860，涨3.60bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.5080，涨2.90bp；银质押7天利率1.5100，涨1.00bp；Shibor7天利率1.5010，涨2.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4500，跌5.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.5180，涨2.60bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y利率3.00，持平；5y利率3.5，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模4038亿，到期规模1175亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净投放2863亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 截至10月29日，5000亿新型政策性金融工具资金全部投放完毕，支持重点领域民间投资项目；国务院办公厅印发促进民间投资发展措施；美国国会参议院就结束政府“停摆”达成一致，政府有望尽快重启 [2] 3.10 Market Situation - 周二国债现券收益率涨跌不一，国债期货多数持平，DR007加权利率回升至1.51%附近震荡；国内10月CPI同比小幅回升，核心CPI明显改善，PPI降幅连续第3个月收窄，出口同比增速意外转负；海外美国10月ISM服务业PMI创8个月新高，制造业PMI大幅不及预期，ADP就业新增4.2万人，劳动力市场下行风险缓和但整体需求放缓 [2] 3.11 Strategy - 10月央行国债买卖操作审慎但释放宽松信号；经济基本面修复和宽财政政策需低利率环境配合；市场预期央行购债以中短期限为主，短端利率有望下行并带动长端利率走低，需警惕风险偏好回升对长端利率的压制；操作上建议每逢调整轻仓试多 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights an increase in government bond futures, with most contracts showing upward movement in their prices on November 11, indicating a positive sentiment in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.09%, reaching a price of 116.410 yuan [1][2]. - The 10-year main contract increased by 0.04%, with a price of 108.525 yuan [1][2]. - The 5-year main contract saw a rise of 0.02%, priced at 105.955 yuan [1][2]. - The 2-year main contract remained unchanged at 102.464 yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Detailed Contract Information - The 30-year continuous contract (TLM) is at 116.410 yuan, up by 0.09% [2]. - The 10-year continuous contract (TM) is priced at 108.525 yuan, reflecting a 0.04% increase [2]. - The 5-year continuous contract (TFM) stands at 105.955 yuan, with a 0.02% rise [2]. - The 2-year continuous contract (TSM) is stable at 102.464 yuan, showing no change [2].

每经AI快讯，11月11日，基准10年期日本国债期货早盘上涨0.07点。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月10日，国债期货早盘收盘，2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货 （TF）主力合约持平，10年期国债期货（T）主力合约持平，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨 0.22%。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is mainly for consolidation, with limited upward and downward drivers in the short - term. In the long - term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary environment will be overall loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of easing still exists [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. In the short - term, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and market interest rates are gradually approaching policy rates, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the future monetary environment will be overall loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5]

Group 1: Financial Data Release - In November, the People's Bank of China is expected to release financial statistics for October, including social financing scale, M2, and new RMB loans, with anticipated figures of 16,500 million yuan for social financing and 4,700 million yuan for new loans, both lower than previous values [1] - The M2 balance is projected to grow by 8.0% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous growth rate of 8.4% [1] - A decline in these financial metrics may slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures and stock index futures, while supporting the increase in government bond futures [1] Group 2: Oil Market Reports - OPEC is set to release its monthly oil market report, which will be closely monitored for its impact on oil and related commodity futures prices [2] - The EIA will announce the weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a previous increase of 5.202 million barrels; further increases may hinder the rise in oil and related commodity futures prices [4] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department will publish the October CPI, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, consistent with the previous value [3] - The core CPI is also expected to rise by 3.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3] - If the U.S. government continues its shutdown, the release of the CPI data may be delayed [3] Group 4: Domestic Economic Performance - A press conference will be held to discuss the national economic performance for October, with expectations of a 5.5% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, down from 6.5% [5] - Retail sales are projected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous 3.0% [5] - The urban fixed asset investment for January to October is expected to decline by 0.8%, compared to a 0.5% drop for January to September [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term and long - term driving logics are based on macro - economic indicators and the need for a monetary environment [5].