一、当前房地产市场态势剖析 （一）整体数据表现欠佳 今年 1 月至 7 月，从国家统计局公布的数据来看，房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积和销售额、房 地产开发企业到位资金同比均呈现下降态势。以 7 月为例，全国新建商品房销售面积 5709 万平方米， 销售额 5325 亿元，分别环比下滑 46% 和 48%；房屋新开工面积 4842 万㎡，环比下降 32.6%，同比下 降 15.4% 。7 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.2%，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降 1.0%。如北京，8 月二手房报价 49465 元 / 平，较上月波动 -0.18% ，多区域房价均有不同程度下滑 。这些数据直观地反映出当前房地产市场仍面临着较大的下行 压力，市场的活跃度和信心亟待进一步提升。 （二）局部积极因素涌现 尽管整体数据不容乐观，但房地产市场积极因素也在持续增加，一些城市表现相对稳定。7 月份，70 个 大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体有所收窄。有 10 个城市新建商品住宅销售价格 与上月相比持平或上涨：北京、大连、南宁、徐州新建商品住宅价格与上月持平；上海、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the economic recovery momentum and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, with a focus on six key areas for the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The government aims to enhance the effectiveness of macro policy implementation, assess policy impacts, and respond to market concerns to stabilize expectations [1] - There is a recognition of marginal economic slowdown in June and July, particularly in fixed asset investment and retail sales, necessitating timely responses to stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2: Domestic Circulation - Strengthening domestic circulation is identified as a key focus, leveraging its inherent stability and long-term growth potential to counter uncertainties in international circulation [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Potential - The government plans to stimulate consumption by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service consumption and new consumption models [4] Group 4: Effective Investment - There is an emphasis on increasing effective investment, particularly in major projects that can boost domestic demand, create jobs, and support growth, with a focus on investments that serve the public [4] Group 5: Unified Market Construction - The meeting highlights the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to continuously release the benefits of a super-large-scale market [5] Group 6: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The government intends to take strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, addressing the need for improvement in housing demand [5]

Group 1 - The core objective of the policy is to stabilize the real estate market, preventing panic-induced declines and systemic financial risks, indicating that while prices may not surge, significant drops are also unlikely [2] - The renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing is a key strategy, aimed at improving living conditions and generating new housing demand, which will enhance property values and absorb existing inventory [2][3] - The policies are designed to support "improvement demand," targeting those looking to upgrade their homes, with potential measures including lower down payments for second homes and interest rate incentives [3] Group 2 - For first-time homebuyers, the focus should be on selecting the right property based on location, quality, and surrounding amenities, while ensuring that monthly payments do not exceed 50% of household income [6] - For those with improvement needs, it is advisable to monitor upcoming policies that may lower costs associated with purchasing new homes, and to consider selling their current property before buying a new one [7] - Investors should shift their focus from speculative buying to long-term holding in core urban areas with population growth, relying on rental income to manage cash flow [8]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and release improvement demand through urban renewal and the renovation of old housing [2][3] - Recent months have seen fluctuations in the real estate market, which had previously shown signs of stabilization since October of last year [2][3] - From January to July 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with residential sales area down by 4.1% [2] Group 2 - The sales revenue of new commercial housing fell by 6.5%, with residential sales revenue down by 6.2% [2] - The number of cities with rising new residential sales prices has decreased, indicating an expansion of price declines [2][3] - The importance of the real estate sector to the domestic economy is significant, and its downturn affects many related industries and consumer wealth [3]

Group 1 - The State Council's ninth plenary meeting emphasizes strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand through urban renewal and the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1][3][4] - From January to July this year, real estate development investment, new housing sales area, sales revenue, and funds available to real estate developers have all decreased year-on-year, but positive factors in the market are increasing [1][2] - In July, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 large and medium-sized cities narrowed, with some cities experiencing stable or rising new housing prices compared to the previous month [1][2] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments in various cities, such as Beijing and Hainan, aim to reduce the burden on homebuyers and stimulate housing consumption by relaxing purchase restrictions and enhancing loan support [2][3] - The improvement in market expectations and confidence among homebuyers is bolstered by breakthroughs in debt restructuring among several real estate companies, which may accelerate risk mitigation processes [2][3] - The renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing is expected to not only improve living conditions but also serve as a significant driver for local economic growth [3][4] Group 3 - The real estate industry is encouraged to actively revitalize existing stock, optimize new supply, and enhance quality to meet the growing demand for high-quality housing [4] - The focus on urban renewal is anticipated to stimulate substantial improvement demand, with an emphasis on providing safe, comfortable, and sustainable housing options [3][4]

Economic Recovery and Growth - The State Council meeting emphasized consolidating and expanding the positive momentum of economic recovery, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties, focusing on stimulating consumption and stabilizing the real estate market [1][7] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in China has shown a significant recovery, contributing 52% to the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of the year, making consumption the leading driver of economic growth [2] - Policies such as trade-in incentives and potential nationwide birth subsidies are expected to further stimulate consumption, reflecting the government's commitment to boosting domestic demand [2][3] New Consumption Trends - The meeting called for the cultivation of service consumption and new consumption growth points, with innovative and competitive products driving growth in both goods and services [4] - New consumption trends, including pet and self-care markets, are emerging as significant contributors to economic activity, necessitating regulatory support for innovative consumption [4] Policy Measures for Consumption - The government plans to systematically eliminate restrictive measures in the consumption sector to enhance consumer freedom and stimulate demand [5][6] - Recommendations include reforming consumption taxes and optimizing personal income tax to increase disposable income and promote consumption [6] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The meeting underscored the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which plays a crucial role in driving consumption and economic stability [7][8] - Adjustments to housing policies, such as increasing loan limits and reducing down payment ratios, are expected to lower barriers for homebuyers and stimulate demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand through urban renewal and the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - From January to July this year, real estate development investment, new residential sales area, sales revenue, and funds received by real estate developers all saw a year-on-year decline [1] - In July, the year-on-year decline in residential sales prices across 70 large and medium-sized cities narrowed, with 10 cities showing stable or rising prices compared to the previous month [1] - Hubei province reported a 5.8% year-on-year increase in new residential sales area from January to July, marking eight consecutive months of positive growth [1] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - Recent policy optimizations in various cities aim to reduce the burden on homebuyers and stimulate housing consumption, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and increased support for public housing loans [2] - The improvement in market expectations and buyer confidence is bolstered by breakthroughs in debt restructuring among several real estate companies, which may accelerate the risk mitigation process [2] Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The State Council's meeting calls for accelerated urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which can enhance living conditions and serve as a significant economic growth driver [3] - The focus on urban renewal is expected to stimulate substantial improvement demand, with a push for high-quality housing that meets safety, comfort, and sustainability standards [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is encouraged to optimize existing stock, enhance new supply, and improve quality to better meet the high-quality housing demands of the population [4]

Core Insights - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand through urban renewal and the renovation of dilapidated housing [1][3][4] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate development investment, new housing sales area, sales volume, and funding for real estate companies from January to July this year, but some cities show signs of stability [1][2] - Various cities are optimizing housing policies to reduce the burden on homebuyers and boost housing consumption, which is expected to enhance market confidence [2][4] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to July, the sales area of new residential properties in Hubei province increased by 5.8%, marking eight consecutive months of positive growth, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 13.1% [1] - In July, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities narrowed, with 10 cities reporting stable or rising new housing prices compared to the previous month [1][2] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - Recent policy changes in cities like Beijing, Hainan, and Chengdu aim to ease purchasing restrictions and enhance financial support for homebuyers, thereby stimulating housing demand [2][3] - The ongoing debt restructuring efforts among real estate companies are expected to accelerate risk mitigation and restore market confidence [2] Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The government plans to accelerate the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is seen as a key driver for local economic growth and improvement of living conditions [3][4] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal is anticipated to unleash significant improvement demand, with an emphasis on creating safe, comfortable, and sustainable housing [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is reaffirming its commitment to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings indicating a focus on policies to halt the decline in property prices and stimulate demand [1][3]. Group 1: Government Meetings and Policies - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, following a previous meeting on June 13 that called for greater efforts to stop the market's decline [1][3]. - The recent State Council meeting on August 18 is notable as it is the first time real estate policies have been explicitly mentioned in this year's meetings, responding to concerns that real estate was being sidelined in decision-making [3][4]. - Experts suggest that the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is crucial for boosting domestic consumption and overall economic stability, as real estate is a significant component of consumer spending [3][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - Data indicates that the real estate market is still undergoing significant adjustments, with first-tier cities experiencing an increase in the decline of second-hand housing prices. In July, prices in these cities fell by an average of 1.0%, with Beijing seeing a drop of 1.1% [4][5]. - Nationally, from January to July, the sales area of new residential properties decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 6.5%, indicating a worsening trend in the market [5][6]. - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with a 11.58% year-on-year increase in listings across 100 cities, highlighting a growing supply amid declining demand [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts believe that without significant policy interventions, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period may not see substantial improvements in the market [7]. - Recommendations include addressing the fundamental issues affecting the market, such as employment stability and income expectations, alongside implementing supportive fiscal policies for new citizens and young families [7]. - The focus on urban renewal and the effective implementation of existing policies are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with potential for interest rate cuts to further support the market [7].

Economic Recovery and Growth Strategy - The State Council meeting emphasized the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, focusing on stimulating consumption and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in China has shown a positive recovery, contributing 52% to the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of the year, making consumption the primary driver of economic growth [2] - Policies such as trade-in programs and potential nationwide birth subsidies are expected to further stimulate consumption, reflecting the central government's commitment to boosting domestic demand [2][3] - Experts suggest that enhancing consumer confidence and capability through financial support and social security improvements will be crucial for sustainable consumption recovery [2] Policy Measures for Consumption - Recent implementation of two interest subsidy policies in the consumption sector, along with existing trade-in policies, is expected to further invigorate the consumer market [3] - The meeting called for the development of new consumption sectors, such as the "silver economy" and "ice and snow economy," to meet diverse consumer needs and create new market dynamics [3] Removal of Consumption Restrictions - The meeting addressed the need to systematically eliminate restrictive measures in the consumption sector, which have been identified as barriers to domestic demand growth [4] - Experts advocate for a more consumer-friendly environment by removing administrative restrictions that hinder consumption and promoting equal participation in market activities [5] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The meeting underscored the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is seen as a significant component of consumer spending and economic stability [6] - Policies aimed at supporting the real estate market, such as optimizing purchase restrictions and increasing housing subsidies, are anticipated to be implemented in more cities [6][7] Urban Renewal Initiatives - The meeting reiterated the significance of urban renewal, particularly in improving living conditions in urban villages and old housing, to stimulate housing demand [7] - Measures to enhance housing affordability for families, including increased loan limits and subsidies for green buildings, are expected to lower barriers to homeownership [7]