Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is advancing a temporary funding bill, indicating a potential end to the prolonged government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and caused an estimated loss of $7 billion [3][6] - The temporary funding bill aims to provide funding until January 31, 2024, and includes key projects like food stamps and veterans' affairs [3][6] - The market is reacting positively to the potential passage of the funding bill, which is expected to stabilize basic services and provide a more predictable environment for businesses and consumers [3][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some members advocating for continued cuts due to low inflation and stable employment, while others express caution [6][8] - Concerns are raised about the U.S. economy potentially facing a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s, with rising inflation expectations and slowing growth [6][8] - Recent economic data, such as the October ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7 and a modest increase of only 42,000 jobs in the private sector, indicate a weakening economic landscape [6][8] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,130 per ounce, reflecting a flight to safety and concerns over long-term monetary credibility [8][11] - Central banks globally, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 12 months [8][11] - The market is advised to manage gold investments carefully, as while the long-term outlook is bullish, volatility may increase [11][15] Group 4 - The relationship between high interest rates, inflation expectations, and fiscal policy is critical for assessing the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets [15][16] - The upcoming Senate vote, data releases, and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are pivotal events that will clarify the market's direction regarding gold, the strength of the yuan, and the pricing of dollar assets [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "dividends" to Americans funded by tariff revenues, amidst declining support and recent electoral losses for the Republican Party [3][5]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump's plan aims to provide $2,000 to Americans, excluding high-income individuals, funded by tariff revenues [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that implementing this plan could lead to a fiscal loss exceeding twice the tariff revenue, which is insufficient to support such large-scale payouts [4][8]. - The proposal has been made twice in 2023, indicating Trump's focus on improving his public image [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The CRFB estimates that distributing $2,000 to all Americans would result in an annual expenditure of approximately $600 billion, while the federal tariff revenue for the fiscal year was only $195 billion [8]. - If limited to 150 million adults earning less than $100,000 annually, the total payout would still reach around $300 billion, far exceeding the tariff income [8]. - Historical data suggests that large cash distributions could trigger inflation, as seen during the pandemic when stimulus checks contributed to a 40-year high inflation rate [8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is currently facing significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year [11]. - The CRFB warns that annual implementation of the dividend could increase the deficit by $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected revenue from Trump's tariffs [11]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the remaining revenue may only support dividends every seven years [11]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent polls indicate a decline in Trump's support, with a net approval rating of -18%, and significant dissatisfaction regarding his handling of inflation and economic issues [14]. - Consumer confidence has dropped, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to a three-year low, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the government shutdown [14]. - Economic analysts suggest that the current market conditions are precarious, with potential risks of recession or renewed inflation [15].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, now in its 42nd day, is significantly impacting the airline industry, leading to staff shortages and flight limitations, causing travel difficulties for millions of passengers [1] Group 1: Impact on Airlines - Delta Airlines had to divert a flight from Puerto Rico to Atlanta to Birmingham, requiring passengers to disembark with all personal belongings, and due to pilot duty time limits, passengers could not return home that day [1] - A Southwest Airlines captain discussed the effects of the government shutdown on air travel during a delay on a flight from New York to Dallas, urging passengers to contact their supportive lawmakers to help end the shutdown [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted for 41 days, leading to significant absenteeism among air traffic controllers, which has caused widespread disruption in the aviation industry [1][2] - President Trump has urged air traffic controllers to return to work immediately, threatening substantial pay cuts for those who do not comply [1][4] - The Federal Aviation Administration reported that absenteeism rates among air traffic controllers at the 30 largest airports reached between 20% and 40% during the shutdown [2] Summary by Sections Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in many air traffic controllers taking sick leave or retiring, exacerbating staffing shortages in the air traffic control system [1] - Major airports across the U.S. are experiencing significant flight delays and cancellations, which could severely affect holiday travel plans [1] Flight Disruptions - On November 9, nearly 3,000 flights were canceled, and over 11,000 flights were delayed; on November 10, approximately 2,380 flights were canceled and 8,900 flights were delayed [2] - The FAA has mandated flight reductions at 40 major airports, increasing from a 4% reduction on November 7 to a 10% reduction by November 14 [2] Air Traffic Controller Situation - Air traffic controllers have been working without pay for over 40 days, with many only able to take one day off per week and working up to 10 hours a day [6] - The National Air Traffic Controllers Association has warned that air traffic controllers should not be used as political pawns in the government shutdown and has called for Congress to act swiftly to end the shutdown [6] Legislative Actions - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 in favor, which still requires approval from the House of Representatives and the President's signature to take effect and end the shutdown [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Senate reached a compromise to advance a spending bill aimed at ending the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025[1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) year-end target balance is maintained at approximately $850 billion, despite previous fluctuations due to the shutdown and other factors[1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3, marking a three-and-a-half-year low, while inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%[10] Group 2: Market Performance - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported Q3 earnings, with 82% exceeding EPS expectations and overall earnings growing nearly 12% year-over-year[2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since April, with tech stocks losing approximately $800 billion in market value[9] - Retail investors continue to buy on dips, providing support for the U.S. stock market despite high valuations[2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is debating the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for caution due to high inflation and economic data delays caused by the government shutdown[9][21] - Market expectations indicate one more rate cut in December 2025 and two additional cuts in 2026[23] - Risks include stronger-than-expected economic data that could delay rate cuts and weaken support for risk assets[3][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The potential end of the US government shutdown boosted market sentiment, causing stock indices to open higher today. However, they trended downward after the opening and fluctuated until the close, with the total trading volume of the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan again. The basis of stock index futures declined, and the open interest decreased, indicating a stronger willingness among long - position holders to exit. With a relatively quiet information environment, on one hand, the long - term high - level oscillation has increased the willingness of funds to take profits, leading to a correction pressure on the index; on the other hand, policy expectations provide relatively strong support at the lower level of the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week to further verify the recovery of the fundamentals [4] Market Review - Stock indices closed lower today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.91%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.868 billion yuan. Stock index futures all declined with reduced trading volume [2] Important Information - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding market access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees - There is a glimmer of hope in the US government shutdown crisis! The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill on Sunday to fund the government until next January [3] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.84 | 11.04 | 0.3615 | 26.3184 | -0.5129 | | IH | -0.58 | 5.0142 | 0.4232 | 9.4744 | -0.1967 | | IC | -0.79 | 11.2484 | -1.0252 | 24.1256 | -0.8077 | | IM | -0.30 | 18.6082 | -0.8391 | 35.4095 | -0.0582 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.03 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.11 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 19935.86 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | -1808.68 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - European stocks are expected to continue their positive trend due to the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.K.'s FTSE index is projected to open 0.6% higher [1] - Germany's DAX is anticipated to rise by 0.3% [1] - France's CAC 40 is also expected to increase by 0.3% [1] - Italy's FTSE MIB is forecasted to gain 0.37% [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, effectively ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history [2] - The bill received a 60-40 vote, with support from some Democratic senators and nearly all Republicans [2] - Following Senate approval, the bill will be sent to the House of Representatives for further consideration [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary federal funding bill on November 10, ending a record 41-day government shutdown that began on October 1 due to the failure to pass a new funding bill [1] Group 1 - The government shutdown lasted for a record 41 days, marking a significant disruption in federal operations [1] - The temporary funding bill was necessary to prevent further financial instability within the federal government [1] - The passage of the bill indicates a resolution to the immediate funding crisis faced by the government [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Points - The U.S. Senate, led by the Republican Party, passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, effectively ending a record government shutdown [1] - The bill will be sent to the Republican-led House of Representatives for review, with a final vote expected as early as Wednesday [1] - The funding bill will maintain federal government funding until January 30 of the following year and provides full-year funding for the Department of Agriculture, military construction, and legislative bodies [1] - Democratic supporters ensured the reversal of federal layoff provisions implemented during the shutdown by the Trump administration [1] - Republican leaders committed to voting on the Affordable Care Act subsidy provisions by mid-December [1] - House Speaker Johnson informed Republican colleagues of plans to organize a full House vote as soon as Wednesday, marking the first session since the last vote on September 19 after a 50-day recess [1]