今日周四（5月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于8318一线上方，今日开盘于8265元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂8294元/千克，上涨0.97%，最高触及8320元/千克，最低下探8246元/千克，目前来看， 白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 知情人士表示，欧盟旨在与美国开展合作，寻求一份平衡且互利的协议。目前双方仍在相互试探，其中 一人指出，欧盟委员会在启动正式谈判前，很可能需要获得成员国的授权。他们还补充道，欧盟官员以 及许多成员国依旧怀疑特朗普政府是否抱有同样目标，并且一直向美方强调，大西洋两岸的繁荣紧密相 连。与此同时，欧盟也在推进相关准备工作，一旦谈判未能产生满意结果，便会采取应对举措。 据此前报道，尽管美国近期与英国和中国达成的协议表明特朗普升级贸易摩擦的意愿是有限度的，但欧 盟官员在这两份协议中均未看到未来协议的明确方向。这两份协议还显示，许多商品的基准关税以及一 系列行业措施很可能会继续存在。 【要闻速递】 据报道，欧盟预计将向美国分享一份修订后的贸易提案，力求为与特朗普政府的谈判注入动力，不过双 方能否达成协议仍疑云重重。 欧盟最新提案涵盖的其他领域包括食品和农业标准、互认协议、公共采购 ...

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - China has made it clear that the 145% tariffs must be completely removed, leaving no room for negotiation [1][3] - The Chinese government rejects any form of "discounted compromise" and insists on the removal of unilateral tariffs as a prerequisite for negotiations [3] - The U.S. administration's proposal to reduce tariffs from 145% to 50%-60% is seen as a mere numerical game by China, which is not interested in the level of tariffs but in ending the use of trade as a weapon [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are beginning to negatively affect the U.S. economy, with rising prices reported by e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Temu [5] - Consumer spending patterns are shifting, with a decrease in restaurant traffic and an increase in essential goods expenditure, indicating a brewing macroeconomic storm [5] - The costs associated with tariffs are permeating every segment of the supply chain, ultimately being borne by American consumers [5] Group 3: Strategic Timing - The critical phase of the tariff negotiations may occur in July, coinciding with the expiration of a 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" [7] - If the U.S. fails to reach agreements with Japan and Europe by mid-July, China's negotiating position will significantly strengthen [7] - The delayed economic impacts of tariffs are expected to culminate in July, potentially delivering a severe blow to the Trump administration as inflation and employment data emerge [7] Group 4: Strategic Resilience - China demonstrates strategic resilience by maintaining a firm stance on tariff negotiations while expanding its global market presence through initiatives like the Belt and Road [9] - The Chinese manufacturing sector, accounting for over 30% of global production, is redefining market rules, challenging the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs [9] - The ongoing tariff conflict reflects a clash of governance philosophies, with China adopting a rules-based approach to counter unilateralism, while the U.S. focuses on transactional tactics [9]

美国4月的关税收入一下子冲破了170亿美元大关！特朗普那叫一个得意，到处宣扬这是美国的"大获全 胜"。可这背后藏着个关键问题：这钱到底是谁出的呢？是从出口国那儿多收的，还是从美国老百姓自 己兜里掏的？这可关系到谁才是这场关税游戏里的真正赢家。最近啊，就连股神巴菲特都忍不住站出来 批评特朗普了，这背后到底有啥门道？咱们一起来瞧瞧。 美国4月的关税收入突破170亿美元大关，这消息一出来，特朗普那可高兴坏了，觉得美国在这场贸易博 弈里"大获全胜"。他到处宣扬这个成果，仿佛这是他执政的一大功绩。在他眼里，这多收的关税就是美 国赚的钱，是美国经济强大的证明。 可这里面有个关键问题：这笔钱究竟由谁承担，又是从谁那里多收取的款项呢？这就像一场魔术表演， 大家都在猜背后的机关到底在哪。 假如这笔钱来自出口国，那美国确实能赚得盆满钵满。出口国为了把商品卖到美国，只能乖乖多交关 税，美国就坐收渔利。就好比你去市场买东西，卖家为了把东西卖给你，主动多给了你一笔钱，这生意 对买家来说简直太划算了。 但要是这笔钱是从美国消费者身上搜刮而来，那就完全是另一回事了。特朗普政府表面上打着贸易保护 的旗号，实际上却让美国消费者成了"冤大头"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，若正在进行的贸易谈判未达欧盟预期，欧盟计划对价值约1000亿 欧元(约合1130亿美元)的美国商品实施报复性关税。这一反制措施清单最早或于本周三提交成员国审 议，经一个月磋商后最终敲定，期间名单仍存调整空间。 当前欧美贸易博弈呈现三大焦点：其一，欧盟千亿欧元级关税威胁覆盖范围远超此前措施;其二，双方 谈判陷入僵局，美国关税政策未见松动迹象;其三，特朗普政府持续扩大贸易打击面，迫使欧盟不断升 级反制工具箱。这场跨大西洋贸易争端正从传统制造业向服务业等新领域蔓延，后续走势仍充满变数。 此次关税威胁并非欧盟首次亮剑。作为对特朗普此前钢铝关税(25%)的反制，欧盟已对210亿欧元美国商 品加征关税。为配合谈判，美国曾将针对欧盟出口商品的所谓"对等税率"从20%临时下调至10%，欧盟 则于本月初同意将报复性关税执行时间推迟90天。 但特朗普政府并未收敛，除对汽车及零部件维持25%关税外，还启动新调查或涉及木材、药品、半导 体、关键矿产及卡车进口。欧盟委员会此前明确表示，已动用所有既有反制手段，未来或升级至限制服 务业出口等新领域。 欧盟委员会拟于本周向美方提交谈判文件，核心诉求包括降 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].

兄弟们，我告诉大家，关税战一定会在两三周之内有巨大的反转。为什么我敢这么猜测呢？我来给大家讲讲。 还有一点大家要明白，特朗普这么做，不仅仅是针对外部，最重要的是他在与美联储以及华尔街之间进行博弈。特朗普代表的是美国那些实体制造业大佬， 而拜登那边主要是华尔街大佬的势力。美联储在美国是一个比较特殊的存在。特朗普想逼着美联储降息，可美联储现在一直不降息，他们在观望。美联储在 看关税政策出来之后，对经济是否有影响，如果美国经济依然强劲，他们就可以顶着不降息；或者关税政策出来后，美国通货膨胀快速上涨，他们也可以不 降。所以，美联储在观望，特朗普在观望，华尔街大佬们也在观望。 特朗普已经承认自己是故意搞崩全球股市。大家看这件事，其实很明显，有资本大佬在配合特朗普的关税政策抛空全球股市。因为关税政策很早就出来了， 全球早有预期，可为什么政策落地、发酵了几天之后，全球股市才开始崩盘，而且是在中国反制之后才开始崩盘呢？因为资本市场在等一个理由，特朗普也 在等一个理由，当中国反制，贸易战升级，全球股市就崩了。 但是反过来想想，中美目前加关税这件事，对世界经济的影响真有那么大吗？我觉得没有那么大。很多东西该买的还是得买，中美每年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. on certain Chinese exports, which has prompted a strong response from a Chinese company that decided to raise prices for U.S. customers by the same percentage as the tariff increase, signaling a shift in the dynamics of international trade relations [1][3][10]. Group 1: Company Response - The Chinese company has taken a firm stance by notifying U.S. clients that prices will increase in direct correlation to the new tariffs, demonstrating a refusal to absorb the costs [1][3]. - This action is seen as a significant shift from previous practices where Chinese companies were more accommodating, indicating a newfound confidence and willingness to confront U.S. trade policies [5][8]. - The company’s decision is not impulsive but rather a calculated response to ongoing tariff disputes that have persisted since 2018, reflecting a strategic approach to negotiations [7][12]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The price increase by this company could set a precedent for the entire industry, potentially leading to a broader movement among other Chinese firms to adopt similar pricing strategies in response to U.S. tariffs [5][12]. - The article suggests that if more companies follow suit, it could transform the situation from isolated incidents to a systemic response, which would challenge U.S. trade tactics [5][10]. - The response from the Chinese company is framed as a tactical maneuver that could pressure U.S. consumers to hold their government accountable for the increased costs, thereby shifting the burden back onto the U.S. government [10][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the US announced the global reciprocal tariff plan, the overseas market followed a recession logic. It is necessary to observe the trade game among countries in the next 6 days. Only after the game reaches a balance will the market have new opportunities. Attention should be paid to the impact of the tariff increase on exports, possible production capacity backflow, and potential domestic policy support. In the short - term, the A - share index will test the lower support around 3300 points, and the trend is expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of structure, the role of dividend - weighted stocks in stabilizing the market should be emphasized [1][2][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Viewpoint 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - Trump announced a global reciprocal tariff plan with a higher - than - expected tariff. A 10% universal benchmark tariff on all imported goods will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariffs for different countries will take effect on April 9. For China, the tariff increase this year will reach 54%. After the plan was announced, the financial market clearly followed a recession logic, with US stock index futures dropping significantly, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds falling, the US dollar index fluctuating, and gold prices rising [1][4] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated slightly, and closed up 0.05%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.13%. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Due to the shrinking trading volume, there was no sector effect. The previously rising pharmaceutical sector was weak at the opening. The market turnover fell below one trillion, reaching the lowest level since January 13. Funds were waiting for the US tariff decision, showing obvious caution. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, beauty care, communication, and banking led the gains, while military industry, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and steel led the losses. There were 2755 rising stocks and 2425 falling stocks in the whole market [2][5] 3.1.3 Important News - **US Trade Policy**: Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all countries and impose reciprocal tariffs. The reciprocal tariff for the EU is 20%, Japan 24%, Vietnam 46%, and South Korea 25%. Goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement will continue to be tariff - exempt, and those not meeting the criteria will maintain a 25% tariff. The US Treasury Secretary called on countries not to retaliate. The benchmark tariff will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9. Additionally, a 25% automobile tariff will take effect on April 3, and the tariff on auto parts will take effect on May 3. Gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products are not subject to the "reciprocal tariff" [6] - **Countermeasures**: Many countries have stated that they will take countermeasures against US tariffs [7] - **Domestic Policies**: The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", promoting the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimizing rules for futures variety listing, trading, and supervision, and laying a foundation for market - determined prices. The trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. will be developed in an orderly manner [7] - **Stock Market New Accounts**: In the first quarter of this year, 7.47 million new A - share accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 31.74% [8] - **Military Exercises**: The Eastern Theater Command successfully completed joint military exercises around the Taiwan Island. The spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense stated that they will resolutely crush all "Taiwan independence" separatist acts and firmly promote the process of national reunification [8] - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported related brandy from the EU until July 5, 2025 [8] - **Pilot Projects**: Nine cities including Shanghai were included in the first - batch pilot scope for large - scale vehicle - grid interaction applications [8] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - After the US reciprocal tariff plan was announced, the overseas market followed a recession logic. It is necessary to observe the trade game among countries in the next 6 days. Only after the game reaches a balance will the market have new opportunities. Attention should be paid to the impact of the tariff increase on exports, possible production capacity backflow, and potential domestic policy support. In the short - term, the A - share index will test the lower support around 3300 points, and the trend is expected to bottom out and rebound. Investors should maintain a calm attitude and pay attention to the stabilizing role of dividend - weighted stocks [9] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index futures contracts, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, position changes, etc. It also presents multiple charts related to the basis and inter - period spreads of these index futures [11][12] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The data shows the current points, daily, weekly, and monthly price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of various major A - share indexes and sectors, including the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. [30] - **Market Style Impact**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [31][32][33] - **Valuation Charts**: Presents charts on the valuations of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data and charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, northbound funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, etc. [34][37][40] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rates, reflecting the liquidity situation in the market [51]