记者丨李依农 杨雨莱 编辑丨李莹亮 在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，亚洲经济仍显韧性。面对挑战，亚洲经济体保持稳健的动力是什 么？ 近日，牛津经济研究院亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙在接受南方财经记者专访时指出，今年亚洲多国经济表 现亮眼，部分得益于美国关税政策引发的"提前下单"效应，支撑了出口的表现。 她同时强调，"对未来几个季度部分亚洲经济体的增长势头保持相当乐观"，原因在于更多积极因素正陆 续显现：一方面，各国政府的支持性政策将陆续落地；另一方面，已有研究表明，亚太区域合作的深化 可部分对冲美国保护主义政策的负面冲击，从而缓解全球波动带来的压力。 谈及中国，卢姿蕙认为，提升生产率的关键在于科技进步与创新。凭借人工智能等前沿技术的持续突 破，中国经济有望保持长期增长动能。 卢姿蕙。资料图 南方财经：近年来，中国正在加快推动科技创新，推动高质量发展。如何评价科技创新对中国长期增长 的作用？ 卢姿蕙：科技创新非常重要。在中国，要提升生产率，核心途径可以是依靠科技进步和创新。中国本身 拥有庞大的工业基础，制造业大约占国内生产总值的四分之一。如果能够推动制造业升级，提升工业生 产水平，将对中国的长期增长产生深远而积极的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent deflationary pressures despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt servicing and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of 824.87 billion USD, indicating a significant increase in foreign currency holdings by export enterprises [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and complicates the inflation situation [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - The article suggests that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, is crucial for attracting foreign and repatriated funds, with measures like allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks directly [11]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may further incentivize capital to flow into Hong Kong's markets [13].

Core Viewpoint - The economist urges the Thai government to adopt a phased strategy to mitigate the impact of the newly implemented 19% U.S. tariffs, highlighting the need for structural reforms to address deeper economic vulnerabilities [1] Group 1: Immediate Response - The tariffs should not only be seen as a threat but as an opportunity to reposition the economy for long-term resilience [1] - A proposed emergency fund should provide low-interest loans and liquidity support to affected exporters, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2: Mid-term Strategy - The mid-term plan (6-18 months) should focus on supply chain restructuring, reducing external dependencies, and promoting industries aligned with sustainability goals [1] - New investment incentives must comply with global standards, such as ESG criteria and carbon border taxes [1] - Emphasis on enhancing workforce skills and integrating digital tools like artificial intelligence and big data is necessary [1] Group 3: Long-term Vision - In the long term (1.5-5 years), Thailand needs to transition from a low-cost manufacturing base to a regional hub for high-value services and innovation [1] - Significant investments in research and development, specialized development, and upstream technology are required [1] - Establishing a Thailand-U.S. economic dialogue platform and actively participating in multilateral forums is recommended to avoid future trade frictions [1]

Group 1 - The uncertainty of the US tariff policy continues to impact Chinese export companies, with a survey conducted by UBS Evidence Lab revealing insights into their strategies and industry trends [1] - 71% of surveyed companies expect a decrease in US tariffs over the next 12 months, with about half anticipating rates to fall within the 11-30% range; however, 27% believe tariffs may increase further, with most expecting rates to rise to the 31-54% range [2] - 94% of companies believe that a trade agreement between China and the US will eventually be reached, but there is caution regarding the timing, with only 20% expecting it by Q3 2025 [5] Group 2 - There is significant pressure on orders from the US market, with 81% of exporting companies reporting current order volumes below the same period last year; if tariffs remain unchanged, 87% expect further declines, with 15% predicting a drop of over 30% [8] - Macro data supports this trend, showing a 24% year-on-year decline in China's exports to the US in Q2, while exports to other regions grew by 11% [11] - UBS forecasts that the decline in China's exports to the US in the second half of the year may exceed the 24% drop seen in Q2 [14] Group 3 - Chinese export companies are actively negotiating with US importers to adjust pricing strategies, with about 50% considering lowering export prices to retain US orders, while 29% are contemplating price increases [15][16] - Currently, companies can only pass on 35-40% of tariff costs to US buyers, significantly lower than during the 2018-19 trade war, influenced by a 2% appreciation of the RMB against the USD [18] Group 4 - Companies are taking proactive measures alongside government support to stabilize exports, with 46% planning to expand into non-US markets, primarily in the Middle East, Europe, and Northeast Asia [19] - 38% of companies intend to shift more orders to overseas factories, with expectations that the share of overseas production orders will rise from 44% in 2024 to 59% in 2025 [21] - 63% of companies plan to relocate some production out of mainland China, with 41% citing US tariffs as a significant motivating factor [23] - 78% of companies have received support from the government, mainly in areas such as market expansion, employment, and credit [26] - The combination of market diversification and production layout adjustments, along with policy support, raises questions about the ability to stabilize export volumes [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity and asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed towards government financing through bonds, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production, but this can lead to overproduction as demand does not keep pace [3][4] - The phenomenon of "capital outflow" occurs when export companies do not convert their foreign currency earnings back to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] Group 3 - The increase in production without corresponding demand results in price deflation, making it difficult for commodity prices to rise [3][4] - The article suggests that the current strategy to attract capital back to the domestic market involves enhancing the Hong Kong capital market, which is seen as a key area for foreign and repatriated funds [4][5] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the appreciation of RMB may further drive capital out of dollar assets towards Hong Kong-listed quality companies [5]

Group 1 - The global trade environment is significantly impacted by tariff wars, leading to increased import costs and reduced export profits for companies, particularly in manufacturing [3][10] - In 2023, global trade growth dropped to 1.7%, a significant decline compared to previous years, indicating a broader economic slowdown [3] - Chinese exporters faced a 15% profit reduction due to tariffs, while the average price of imported consumer goods rose by 8% [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is particularly hard-hit, with a reported 5% job loss in the industry and over 30,000 small businesses shutting down [3][6] - Consumer prices have increased, with the consumer price index rising by 2.5% in 2023, affecting low-income households the most [6] - The job market is tightening, with a reported 5.8% layoff rate and a significant decrease in new job creation, impacting various sectors including IT and automotive [6][10] Group 3 - Companies are encouraged to adapt by investing in employee training and skill development to remain competitive in a changing economic landscape [8][10] - Financial strategies should focus on long-term stability, with recommendations for low-risk investments such as government bonds and fixed deposits [8] - The government is promoting local consumption and innovation, providing support for small and micro enterprises, which could present new opportunities for growth [8][10]

本周全球资本市场呈现风险资产普涨态势，主要指数涨跌及驱动逻辑围绕地缘风险缓和、美联储政策预 期转向等核心因素展开。 全球主要指数中，日本日经225指数以4.55%的周涨幅领涨，日元兑美元突破144的贬值趋势显著提振丰 田等出口制造业龙头；纳斯达克指数紧随其后上涨4.25%，英伟达市值重返全球第一、苹果收购AI公司 Perplexity推动科技板块走强；深证成指、恒生指数、德国DAX分别上涨3.73%、3.20%、2.92%。 港股市场延续涨势，恒生指数周涨3.2%逼近年内高点，恒生科技指数（+4.06%）、恒生中国企业指数 （+2.76%）同步上行，大型科技股与金融板块领涨，南下资金本周净流入284亿港元（偏好建设银行、 美团-W、中芯国际等大金融与科技标的）是重要支撑。 展望下周，全球市场焦点将集中于7月9日美国关税暂停期到期的最终决策、美国6月非农就业数据（验 证经济放缓程度）及中国6月PMI（观察政策效果）。风险方面，若中东停火协议生变可能推升原油波 动率，美债收益率若反弹至4.5%上方或触发科技股估值调整；A股需警惕短期成交量放大后缺乏持续支 撑的调整风险。 策略建议上，可重点关注人工智能、新能源汽车 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Export Chain Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the export chain industry, particularly the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on Southeast Asian manufacturing and the overall market dynamics [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - Recent fluctuations in export volumes were significantly influenced by the U.S. announcement to suspend tariffs on other countries for 90 days, which provided marginal improvement for the industry [3]. - The imposition of higher tariffs in Southeast Asian countries (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia) exceeded market expectations, leading to a notable decline in stock prices [4]. - Domestic listed companies have accelerated the transfer of production capacity to Southeast Asia since the first trade war in 2018, aiming for cost optimization [4]. - Despite high tariffs, the overall impact on revenue and profit is limited due to the existing production capacity in Southeast Asia, which has higher profit margins compared to domestic operations [5]. - The 10% basic tariff is typically borne by customers or shared between manufacturers and customers, with manufacturers' share being less than 50%, thus having a limited effect on profit margins [6]. - The concentration of factories in Vietnam and Southeast Asia may increase, enhancing localization advantages and reducing risks associated with policy fluctuations [7]. - The demand from the U.S., particularly in the real estate sector, is crucial for determining the downstream economic trends in light industry [8]. Additional Important Insights - Current inventory levels in the U.S. have reached historical medians, indicating that inventory is not low, which could affect future demand [8]. - Several export chain companies have seen their stock prices drop below critical profit points, revealing mid-term value opportunities as recent policy changes have led to stock price rebounds [9]. - The call highlighted specific companies such as Zhejiang Natural, Jiayi, Jiangxin, Gongshang Turf, Gujia, and Minhua as key investment targets due to their potential benefits from the current market conditions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. on certain Chinese exports, which has prompted a strong response from a Chinese company that decided to raise prices for U.S. customers by the same percentage as the tariff increase, signaling a shift in the dynamics of international trade relations [1][3][10]. Group 1: Company Response - The Chinese company has taken a firm stance by notifying U.S. clients that prices will increase in direct correlation to the new tariffs, demonstrating a refusal to absorb the costs [1][3]. - This action is seen as a significant shift from previous practices where Chinese companies were more accommodating, indicating a newfound confidence and willingness to confront U.S. trade policies [5][8]. - The company’s decision is not impulsive but rather a calculated response to ongoing tariff disputes that have persisted since 2018, reflecting a strategic approach to negotiations [7][12]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The price increase by this company could set a precedent for the entire industry, potentially leading to a broader movement among other Chinese firms to adopt similar pricing strategies in response to U.S. tariffs [5][12]. - The article suggests that if more companies follow suit, it could transform the situation from isolated incidents to a systemic response, which would challenge U.S. trade tactics [5][10]. - The response from the Chinese company is framed as a tactical maneuver that could pressure U.S. consumers to hold their government accountable for the increased costs, thereby shifting the burden back onto the U.S. government [10][12].