广发期货EDP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合約 | 观点 | | | | 锡 甲醇 | SN2601 MA2605 | 震荡偏强 短期偏强 | | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 底部反弹 | | | | 棕榈洲 | P2605 | 逢高空 | | | | 铂、锂 | PT2606/PD | 逢低多 | | | | | 2606 | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2512 | | 美联储本次会后公布决定继续降息25bp,其发言 态度对通胀乐观,并将启动短债买入,超预期鸽 | | | 股指 | IH2512 | 顺周期领衔反弹,A股明显回暖 | 派,短期全球流动性预期改善,但日央行加息预期 | | | | IC2512 | | 影响叠加下,市场缺乏上涨合力,下方空间亦有限 | | | | IM2512 | | 。当前主线未明,谨慎观望为主。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 沪锡日评20251117: 多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压锡价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-11-13 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-10 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 291 450 298140 沪锡朗货活跃合约 | 286560 | -6, 690.00 | | | 成交量(手) 103936 151802 | 70764 | -47. 866. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) 36341 43594 | 34257 | -7.253.00 | | | 库存(吨) 5932 8699 | 5694 | 234. 00 | | | 沪锡县差 SMM 1#锡平均价 292100 296000 | 285800 | -3. 900. 00 | | | (现货与期货) 沪锡基差 650 -2140 | -760 | 2, 790. 00 | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 550 -890 | -580 | 1, 440. 00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - PP shows both increasing supply and demand. Supply rises due to fewer maintenance shutdowns, and demand remains resilient in sectors like automotive and home appliances. However, there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases supply pressure, imported goods are still abundant, and demand outside of agricultural films generally declines. There is overall insufficient support, and while inventory decreased this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side shows oil prices fluctuating and coal prices rising, with a slight improvement in PDH profits. High inventory and cost support continue to compete, and market expectations remain weak [2]. Methanol Industry - The Iranian gas restriction has been postponed. As of November 12th, Iran's shipments reached 430,000 tons, maintaining a relatively high level, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. Prices and basis are weakly oscillating. In the inland market, Jiutai had an unexpected maintenance, but subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Overseas gas restriction is less than expected. On the demand side, multiple MTO units reduced their loads due to profit reasons, and traditional downstream industries made rigid - demand purchases. The current market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the Iranian gas restriction [6]. Natural Rubber Industry - On the supply side, there are still occasional rainfall disruptions in overseas production areas, but overall, the output during the peak season is expected to be strong, and raw material prices have some downward space. The domestic production area is gradually entering the production - reduction period, and domestic raw material prices are firm. On the demand side, some northern regions are gradually entering the off - season this month, market sales are slowing down, and most companies are digesting inventory and purchasing as needed. As the market gradually digests inventory, some companies made small - scale replenishments in the middle of the month. In summary, short - term macro fluctuations are large, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak - season of the main production areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, prices will be weak; if not, prices may be stable. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate around 15,000 - 15,500 [9]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Asian and domestic PX loads remain high. In the short - term, PTA load is maintained, and previous terminal and polyester demand has improved more than expected. With low polyester inventory, it is expected that the load will remain relatively high from November to December, and there is still support on the short - term PX demand side. However, the overall support from the cost side is limited due to the weak supply - demand outlook for crude oil. Recently, the market has been trading on the expectations of PTA anti - involution and tight mid - term PX supply - demand. PX has shown a strong trend. But the terminal demand is entering the off - season, and there are concentrated PTA device maintenance plans in November, so the PX supply - demand outlook is loose, and price drivers are limited. Strategically, PX may oscillate in the range of 6,200 - 6,800 in the short - term, and short - selling can be considered above 6,800 [10]. - **PTA**: There are still many PTA device maintenance plans in November. Terminal and polyester demand has improved more than expected, and with low polyester inventory, it is expected that the load will remain relatively high from November to December. The PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance in November, but it is expected to be loose from February to the first quarter of next year. In terms of absolute price, the price driver is limited, and the support for PTA is limited. Although PTA - related stocks and absolute prices have been boosted by recent PTA production - cut rumors, the basis is still weakly operating. It is expected that the PTA rebound will be limited. Strategically, TA should be treated as oscillating in the range of 4,300 - 4,800 in the short - term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended; a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 can be considered [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Recently, some coal - based ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance, but Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's plant is restarting, and previously shut - down coal - based plants are planned to restart in the middle and late part of the month. Domestic supply remains high, and North American ethylene glycol load has increased to a high level, with no reduction in Middle - East supply. November will see a concentrated arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments. Although the polyester load is maintained above 91%, the expected high inventory build - up from November to December puts pressure on ethylene glycol prices. Strategically, hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of no less than 4,100 for EG2601; implement a reverse spread for EG1 - 5 on rallies [10]. - **Short - fiber**: Currently, short - fiber factories have low inventory levels and reasonable processing fees, so short - term supply remains relatively high. In terms of demand, there is an expectation of seasonal weakening in terminal demand in November. As raw material prices decline, short - fiber prices follow suit, and there has been some purchasing at low prices in the market. Overall, the short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. Although there are expectations of PTA production cuts, the medium - term supply - demand weakness is difficult to change, and with the weak supply - demand outlook for upstream crude oil, price drivers are weak. It is expected that the rebound space for short - fiber is limited, and processing fees may be compressed. Strategically, the single - side strategy is the same as that for PTA; the processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 1,100, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - **Bottle chips**: In mid - November, there are both maintenance and restart of the Huarun plant. According to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of Dongying Fuhai's new plant has been postponed, so there is little change in domestic supply. Considering the off - season market demand in November, the demand for soft drinks and catering has declined slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support for bottle chips. The supply - demand situation for bottle chips remains loose. Therefore, bottle - chip social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory - build - up phase. PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side, and processing fees will be less boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with raw material costs. Strategically, the single - side strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the processing fee on the PR main - contract futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, there are new production capacities coming on - stream and plant restarts for pure benzene, and the import volume is expected to remain high. Although there are maintenance plans, overall supply may still be loose. On the demand side, some downstream industries are in the red, and the overall demand change is limited. Although the weekly inventory has decreased, the supply pressure remains. The overall supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is loose, and cost support is limited. Since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to plant changes. Strategically, BZ2603 has weak self - driving force and should be treated as short - selling on rallies following oil prices [11]. - **Styrene**: Two new styrene plants are operating stably, and previously shut - down plants have restarted, increasing production. There are still maintenance expectations in November, and overall supply may be maintained. The downstream EPS industry has entered the seasonal off - season, and due to high finished - product inventory, there are expectations of production cuts to maintain prices. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for styrene is in a tight balance, and price drivers are still insufficient. Attention should be paid to plant restarts, production cuts, and cost changes. Strategically, the price of EB12 should be treated as short - selling on rallies following cost changes [11]. LPG Industry - No overall view was provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Previously, due to the expectation that the US government shutdown would end soon and the strong performance of European diesel under continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US, oil prices rebounded. However, the weak supply - demand pattern of crude oil still limits the increase. Overnight, on one hand, both OPEC and EIA monthly reports raised oil production forecasts, increasing concerns about supply over - capacity; on the other hand, there are signs of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the geopolitical premium has declined. Overnight, oil prices dropped significantly. Under the continuous pressure of OPEC+ to increase production, the supply - demand outlook for crude oil in the fourth quarter is weak, and oil prices face pressure on rebounds. In the short - term, a bearish view is taken. Attention should be paid to the actual sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine [16]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all increased slightly on November 12th compared to November 11th. The spreads L15 and PP15 also increased. Spot prices of East - China PP raffia and North - China LLDPE rose, while North - China LL basis and East - China pp basis decreased [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 490,000 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.86% to 500,000 tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.81% to 600,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 3.91% to 229,000 tons [2]. Operating Rate - PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.15% to 44.9%. PP device operating rate increased by 0.93% to 77.8%, PP powder operating rate decreased by 2.07% to 42.5%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.0% to 53.1% [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - Futures prices of MA2601 and MA2605 increased on November 12th compared to November 11th. MA15 spread and Taicang basis changed. Spot prices in Inner Mongolia North Line remained unchanged, while those in Henan Luoyang decreased slightly, and in Taicang port increased. Regional spreads also changed [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44% to 369,250 tons, port inventory increased by 1.75% to 1.544 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [5]. Operating Rate - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09%, overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 1.92% to 72.0%, Northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 5.57% to 103. Downstream, the operating rate of externally - sourced MTO units increased by 1.09% to 84.98%, formaldehyde operating rate increased by 0.23% to 30.0%, and MTBE operating rate increased by 0.80% to 70.2% [6]. Natural Rubber Industry Price and Spread - Spot prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber increased on November 12th compared to November 11th. The basis of whole - latex and non - standard price spread decreased. Cup - rubber and glue prices changed slightly [9]. Production and Consumption - September production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand and Indonesia decreasing and India increasing. September production in China increased. Tire production and export data also changed, with domestic tire production increasing and export volume decreasing [9]. Inventory - Bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% to 449,455 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 8.80% to 48,586 tons [9]. Polyester Industry Price and Spread - Upstream prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other raw materials changed. Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed, along with their cash - flows. PX - related prices and spreads, PTA - related prices and spreads, and MEG - related prices and spreads all had fluctuations [10]. Inventory - MEG port inventory increased by 17.6% to 661,000 tons [10]. Operating Rate - China's PX operating rate increased by 2.8% to 89.8%, PTA operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 76.4%, MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 4.9% to 72.4%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 91.3% [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Price and Spread - Upstream prices of CFR Northeast - Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, etc. changed. Downstream styrene - related prices and spreads, and pure - benzene and styrene downstream cash - flows also had fluctuations [11]. Inventory - Styrene inventory in East - China ports and pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased [11]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure - benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.8%, domestic hydro - benzene operating rate decreased by 3.4% to 55.7%, and downstream EPS operating rate decreased by 13.3% to 54.0% [11]. LPG Industry Price and Spread - Futures prices of PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased on November 12th compared to November 11th. Spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. also increased. Spot prices in South - China and basis changed [13]. Inventory - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.98% to 25.7%, port inventory decreased by 3.65% to 298,000 tons, and port storage capacity ratio decreased by 3.66% to 48.7% [13]. Operating Rate - Upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 2.31% to 78.64%, downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.17% to 75.5%, MTBE operating rate increased by 0.84% to 68.6%, and alkylation operating rate decreased by 6.11% to 41.6% [13]. Crude Oil Industry Price and Spread - Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices changed on November 12th compared to November 11th. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. also changed. Refined - oil prices and spreads, and refined - oil cracking spreads all had fluctuations [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In November, with few PX unit overhauls in Asia and China, but concentrated PTA unit overhauls, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak. PX absolute prices are expected to gradually face pressure. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [1]. - PTA: In November, there are still many PTA unit overhaul plans. With better - than - expected terminal and polyester demand in October and low polyester inventory, PTA supply - demand is expected to be slightly loose with a small inventory accumulation expectation. PTA will continue to oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and treat TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): In November, domestic supply is high, overseas shipments are concentrated, and inventory accumulation is expected to be high, putting pressure on the price. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and do a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 on rallies [1]. - Short Fiber: In November, supply is expected to remain high, demand may weaken seasonally, and cost support is limited. Short - fiber prices will gradually face pressure. The strategy is similar to PTA for PF12, and try to shrink the PF processing margin when it is above 1000 [1]. - Bottle Chips: In November, supply changes little, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Bottle - chip prices will follow the cost side, and the processing margin will fluctuate with raw material costs. The strategy is similar to PTA for PR, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [1]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In November, supply is expected to increase, demand support is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The overall trend is bearish, and it is necessary to track downstream restocking rhythm [2]. - PVC: In October, PVC prices continued to decline. In November - December, supply pressure will continue due to new capacity and high - season operation, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Methanol Industry The current market is trading the "weak reality" logic centered on high port inventory. Before the Iranian gas restriction, the weak reality will continue to be priced in. The 01 - contract inventory problem cannot be solved [3][4][5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: In November, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is limited, and although the East China port inventory decreased in October, it may increase later. Pure - benzene prices are expected to have weak driving force, but attention should be paid to unit changes [8]. - Styrene: In November, supply may slightly decrease, demand is expected to change little, and the supply - demand may be in a tight - balance state. However, high port inventory will limit price increases. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [8]. Polyolefin Industry PP supply recovery has slowed down due to unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand has recovered, but the agricultural film peak is approaching. Overall, supply will increase and demand will decrease, and there is inventory pressure on the 01 - contract. The 05 - contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse spreads [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - Upstream: Brent crude oil (December) dropped 0.1% to $65.00/barrel, WTI crude oil (December) dropped 0.7% to $60.57/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.4% to $573/ton, etc. [1] - Downstream: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 6415 yuan/ton, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged at 6690 yuan/ton, etc. [1] - PX: CFR China PX rose 0.4% to $820/ton, PX spot price (RMB) dropped 2.4% to 6753 yuan/ton [1]. - PTA: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.6% to 4535 yuan/ton, TA2601 futures rose 0.4% to 4586 yuan/ton [1]. - MEG: MEG port inventory dropped 9.7% to 52.3 million tons, MEG arrival expectation rose 273.6% to 19.8 million tons [1]. 开工率 - Asian PX开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.1%, Chinese PX开工率 rose 1.1% to 87.0%, PTA开工率 dropped 0.8% to 78.0%, etc. [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton, East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 1.1% to 4610 yuan/ton [2]. 开工率 - Caustic soda industry开工率 rose 0.1% to 85.6%, PVC total开工率 dropped 1.9% to 73.7% [2]. 库存 - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory dropped 3.8% to 18.8 million tons, PVC upstream factory inventory dropped 7.4% to 33.4 million tons [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2180 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's north line dropped 9.09% to 150 yuan/ton [3]. 库存 - Methanol enterprise inventory rose 4.36% to 37.606%, methanol port inventory dropped 0.38% to 150.6 million tons [4]. 开工率 - Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 dropped 0.09% to 75.78%, downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 rose 7.63% to 84.06% [5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price and Spread - CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $677/ton, styrene East China spot price rose 1.1% to 6470 yuan/ton [8]. 库存 - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, styrene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [8]. 开工率 - Asian pure benzene开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.8%, domestic styrene开工率 dropped 3.7% to 66.7% [8]. Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6968 yuan/ton, down 0.99% from the previous day, PP2601 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day [10]. 库存 - PE enterprise inventory dropped 19.16% to 41.6 million tons, PP enterprise inventory dropped 6.80% to 59.5 million tons [10]. 开工率 - PE device开工率 dropped 0.73% to 80.9%, PP device开工率 rose 1.5% to 77.1% [10].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market saw widespread gains on October 23, with coking coal main contract rising over 5%, and other contracts like coke, lithium carbonate, and SC crude oil increasing over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1475.19 points, up 12.28 points or 0.84% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2035.40 points, up 16.94 points or 0.84% [1] Group 2 - The energy and chemical sector performed particularly well, driven by geopolitical tensions and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, which improved market sentiment [2][3] - Coking coal prices surged over 5% due to supply concerns from environmental regulations and reduced imports, reaching a two-month high [3] - Strong downstream demand for lithium carbonate led to a price increase of over 4% [3] Group 3 - The palm oil market remained weak, with the main contract falling over 1%, influenced by slowing export growth and increasing domestic inventory [4] - Precious metals experienced slight fluctuations, with silver rising over 1% while gold fell by 0.77%, indicating uncertainty in future price movements [4]

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 4434.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4488.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.59% [1] - Major producers are reducing output due to various reasons, leading to a slight decrease in supply, while demand remains lukewarm despite the traditional peak season [1] - The processing fee for PTA is at a low level, indicating an overall undervaluation, but the long-term supply-demand outlook is pessimistic, suggesting a continuation of the current oscillating market pattern [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations of increased PTA maintenance, the polyester production load is anticipated to decline during the traditional off-peak season, resulting in a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA [2] - The cost side shows that PX loads remain high in Asia and domestically, putting pressure on PXN, while crude oil prices are fluctuating [2] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA are weak, with recent news indicating a potential easing of US-China trade tensions, warranting attention to the progress of US-China economic negotiations [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin - LLDPE and PP: Recently, PP production has declined due to significant losses in PDH and externally - sourced propylene routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and decreased inventory. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually rising. This week, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased, and there are more import offers from North America. Currently, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure on the 01 contract, which limits the upside space [2]. Methanol - The market is trading high inventory and fast loading in Iran. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, market sentiment has deteriorated, prices have weakened, and the basis has slightly weakened. In terms of supply and demand, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports prices. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, demand is weak. Port arrivals are still high, inventory accumulation is significant, and trading has weakened. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are neutral, MTO profits are strengthening, and traditional downstream profits are slightly strengthening, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating inventory significantly, and the import volume in September remains high. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expected overseas gas restriction in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Recently, some pure benzene devices have restarted or produced products, and some maintenance plans have been postponed, so the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are still in a loss state, and some second - tier downstream products have high inventory. In September and October, both planned and unplanned production cuts in downstream styrene devices have reduced the demand support. The supply - demand expectation for pure benzene in September is still relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors. - Styrene: Driven by the peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, the overall demand for styrene downstream is okay, but the increase is limited. On the supply side, under the pressure of inventory and industry profits, more devices have shut down or reduced production. Some devices have reduced production due to accidents, and the export expectation of styrene has increased due to overseas device maintenance, so the supply is expected to decrease. Port inventory has accumulated, which may put pressure on the styrene price. In the short term, styrene may be affected by the oil price, geopolitical situation, and the alleviation of concerns about marginal supply increase [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that the market's concerns about the current supply surplus have eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has resurfaced. Specifically, the oil export agreement of the Iraqi Kurds has reached a deadlock, eliminating about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, which is the key trigger for the rebound after the previous continuous decline in oil prices and also provides support for the near - month spread. At the same time, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and the tough stance of NATO have magnified the supply interruption risk of refined oil products, pushed up the cracking spread, and affected the oil price from the sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although the IEA report and other macro - factors still point to a supply surplus, in the short term, geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential inventory increase. In the short term, oil prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying operations, with the operating range of WTI at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after the volatility increases [21][22]. Urea - The urea futures price has been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains at a high level of over 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing the supply pressure. At the same time, agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate. Although there are some export port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. The lack of market confidence and continuous inventory accumulation further suppress the futures price, and there is a lack of substantial positive driving factors [25]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: Recently, the short - process capacity utilization at home and abroad has increased, and the maintenance of some domestic PX devices has been postponed. In addition, multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The supply - demand expectation for PX in the fourth quarter is further weakened. However, it may be supported by oil prices in the short term. - PTA: Due to the continuously low processing fees of PTA, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The spot basis has been continuously weak. In terms of absolute price, it is affected by the situation in Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening. In the short term, the import expectation in September is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand expectation for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, mainly due to the start - up of new devices and the seasonal decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, the short - fiber supply has remained at a high level. On the demand side, although it is the peak season, new orders are limited, and the peak season this year is not very prosperous. The short - fiber price has support at the low level, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - chip: Recently, some bottle - chip devices have restarted while some have shut down, and the overall production reduction intensity remains basically unchanged. With the downstream's low - price replenishment demand, the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - chip are supported, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction of bottle - chip devices will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation [28]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic Soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. This week, the supply has increased, and the start - up rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, the continuous decline in domestic and overseas alumina prices has continuously narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, and the support for the spot price is weak. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious downstream purchasing, the inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, the enterprises under maintenance and load - reduction have not resumed, the supply is tight, and the non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid demand, so the inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the short - term local caustic soda inventory needs time to be released. With the current high supply and the poor unloading of the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. It was previously recommended to take short positions, and the short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many enterprises will end their maintenance next week, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the start - up rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices and have average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide continues to rise, and the ethylene price remains stable, providing bottom - line support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [36]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, L2601 and L2509 closed down 0.35% and 0.50% respectively; PP2601 and PP2509 closed down 0.45% and 0.35% respectively. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, and the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. The spot price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.44%, and the spot price of North China LDPE film decreased by 0.28% [2]. - **Start - up Rates**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. The PP device start - up rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, the PP powder start - up rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 (unit not specified), and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 (unit not specified), and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, MA2601 closed down 0.21%, MA2509 closed up 0.17%, the MA91 spread increased by 60.00%, the太仓 basis decreased by 16.37%, the spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 0.73%, the spot price of Luoyang, Henan decreased by 0.22%, and the spot price of Taicang port decreased by 0.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8% [4]. - **Start - up Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%, the overseas enterprise start - up rate in Shanghai decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 13.46% to 116%, the downstream acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3%, and the downstream MTBE start - up rate increased by 1.37% to 63.8% [4][5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2% to 63.41 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4% to 596 dollars/ton, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at 845 dollars/ton, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7% to 723 dollars/ton, the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased by 5.6% to 125 dollars/ton, and the spread between ethylene and naphtha decreased by 1.0% to 247 dollars/ton [9]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 1.0% to 6860 dollars/ton, EB2511 futures decreased by 0.8% to 6870 dollars/ton, the EB basis (10) increased by 33.3% to 24 dollars/ton, the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 112.5% to - 34 dollars/ton, the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 20.3% to - 337 dollars/ton, and the EB cash flow (integrated) decreased by 19.0% to - 552 dollars/ton [9]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol decreased by 7.6% to - 272 dollars/ton, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) decreased by 4.7% to - 1885 dollars/ton, the cash flow of aniline increased by 14.0% to 514 dollars/ton, the EPS cash flow decreased by 13.6% to 190 dollars/ton, the PS cash flow decreased by 100.0% to - 60 dollars/ton, and the ABS cash flow increased by 247.8% to 34 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 million tons [10]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates**: The domestic pure benzene start - up rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%, the phenol start - up rate increased by 3.0% to 71.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 2.8% to 88.7%, the aniline start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 72.0%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 1.1% to 61.2%, the downstream EPS start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 61.7%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 69.8% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, compared with September 23, Brent crude oil increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.54% to 63.75 dollars/barrel, SC crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 dollars/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82% to 1.37 dollars, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65% to 0.72 dollars, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% to 1.80 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 dollars, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 dollars, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars, the RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94% to 7.61 dollars, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40% to - 0.76 dollars, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% to 15.00 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spread of US gasoline increased by 1.10% to 20.59 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of European gasoline increased by 1.15% to 18.86 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore gasoline increased by 6.11% to 11.12 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US diesel increased by 0.14% to 33.19 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore diesel increased by 0.86% to 18.74 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US jet fuel decreased by 8.80% to 24.13 dollars/barrel, and the cracking spread of Singapore jet fuel increased by 0.85% to 17.74 dollars/barrel [21]. Urea - **Prices**: The synthetic ammonia (Shandong) price increased by 0.91% to 2220 dollars/ton. The spot prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, and 0.56% respectively [25]. - **Spreads**: The Shandong - Henan spread decreased by 10 dollars to - 10 dollars/ton, the Guangdong - Henan spread decreased by 6% to 160 dollars/ton, the Shandong basis decreased by 20.00% to - 48 dollars/ton [25]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine (Shandong), compound fertilizer