1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term performance of the energy and chemical industry [7][9][11][12][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30][31][33][34][35]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector as a whole is in an oscillatory pattern. The root cause of this oscillation lies in the divergence between the industry and the macro - environment, as well as the divergence between domestic products and foreign raw materials. Most chemical products are facing negative basis and increasing warehouse receipts [2]. - Crude oil is under pressure from supply increases and inventory accumulation, with a short - term oscillatory trend. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand, and geopolitical situations, showing different oscillatory characteristics [7][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - International crude oil futures are slightly weaker due to concerns about increased supply. The macro - environment is influenced by factors such as the postponement of high - tariff collection between China and the United States and US inflation data, which has led to speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts. The chemical product market is in the process of shifting the main positions from the September contract to the January contract [1]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The short - term outlook is oscillatory, and the price is relatively under pressure [7]. - **Main Logic**: The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin reduces concerns about Russian oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has declined. OPEC's production increase has brought supply pressure, and the crude oil inventory faces the dual pressure of the peak - to - decline in refinery operations and OPEC +'s accelerated production increase [7]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s production increase in September, the upcoming meeting between Russian and US leaders, and other factors have brought negative impacts. The supply tension has eased, and the demand outlook is not optimistic [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It is in a weak oscillatory state [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s production increase, the increase in heavy - oil supply, and the weakening of demand factors such as the decline in feedstock demand and weak gasoline demand in the US have led to an oversupply situation [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It follows the weak oscillation of crude oil [12]. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution [12]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price has support, and it is in an oscillatory state [27]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in Inner Mongolia has tightened, supporting the price. The port inventory has increased, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices [27]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The downward trend of the futures price has暂缓, waiting for positive support [28]. - **Main Logic**: There is no effective fundamental support currently, but the low - price new orders have increased, and the market is supported by downstream buying at low prices [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The cost raw materials are differentiated, and its own driving force is limited, showing an oscillatory pattern [22]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw materials show a pattern of strong coal and weak oil, and the supply and demand are stable. The inventory accumulation in ports is not sustainable [22]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost has stopped falling and stabilized, and the bottom support has been strengthened with the restart of downstream devices [15]. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of oil prices and the restart of downstream PTA devices have provided support, and the short - term price will oscillate with cost and sentiment [15]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The device maintenance has returned, and the polyester sales have cooled down, with an oscillatory trend [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is strong, but the supply has increased with the restart of devices, and the downstream polyester sales are not sustainable, so the supply - demand drive is weak [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by sentiment, and downstream yarn mills are stocking up opportunistically [24]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is rising, and downstream yarn mills are stocking up due to sentiment, but its own fundamental driving force is weak [24]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by raw materials, with an oscillatory pattern [25]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is strong, and the price follows the cost. The processing fee is slightly compressed, and the price is anchored to the cost [25]. 3.2.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance is stable, and it is in an oscillatory state [30]. - **Main Logic**: The coal and oil markets have an impact, the supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - to - peak season transition, and the export window is limited [30][31]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is reasonable, and PL is in short - term oscillation [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance in Shandong has increased, and the spot price is strong. The short - term price follows PP and methanol [31]. 3.2.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance has decreased, the inventory has increased, and it is in an oscillatory state [29]. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is oscillating weakly, the supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - to - peak season transition, and the overseas situation needs attention [29]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The import arrival has decreased, and downstream production has started, leading to increased buying interest and a shift to a Back structure [18]. - **Main Logic**: The reduction in import arrival and the start of downstream production have boosted the market sentiment, and the port inventory has decreased [18][20]. 3.2.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in factories [21]. - **Main Logic**: Pure benzene provides some cost support, but the supply - demand situation is weak, with new device production and potential inventory accumulation in factories [21]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by cost and is in an oscillatory state [34]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment and supply - demand factors co - exist. The cost is expected to rise, the supply is increasing, and the export has improved [34]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is in short - term oscillation [35]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with increased demand from alumina production and a slight improvement in export orders [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different cross - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various products are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [39]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spread data between different products are provided, which is useful for understanding the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [41]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report also mentions the basis and spread monitoring of specific chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., but detailed data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided text [42][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June, domestic lithium salt production resumed growth, raw material consumption increased, lithium ore inventory decreased, and there was a strong willingness to support prices. However, subsequent arrivals of lithium ore may lead to a spiral decline in lithium salt prices. In July, smelters resumed production, and production reached a new high, further increasing supply pressure [5]. - Consumption side: Subsidies for trade - ins are expected to continue. The energy storage market is currently in a state of "rush to export", but the month - on - month increase is limited. In July, the demand off - season is expected to be obvious, with battery and cathode factories showing signs of destocking and purchasing remaining cautious [5]. - Cost side: Both mines and salt factories are reducing costs, the cost curve is constantly moving down, and the psychological support in the market is also decreasing [5]. - Price outlook: SMM's weekly inventory and production increased month - on - month, smelters accumulated inventory, and downstream destocked. Downstream orders are expected to decline in the off - season, and downstream will maintain a destocking strategy with a high proportion of customer - supplied materials. Spot purchases will remain for just - in - time needs. As some smelters still have profits at current prices and supply resumes growth, inventory is expected to increase rapidly in July, and lithium carbonate prices will be under downward pressure [5]. - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, expect lithium carbonate prices to decline; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Domestic Sales Momentum - From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44% of the total vehicle sales. From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 402,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 57%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 35% [12]. - In June, the growth of new energy vehicles slowed down. On one hand, some cities exhausted subsidies for trade - ins, and there was a time lag in issuing new subsidies. On the other hand, the penetration rate exceeded 50%, limiting the growth space. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the annual wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars will be 15.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%, with a penetration rate of 56% [12]. - The peak - season characteristics of power cell production are not obvious. From January to May, the production is expected to increase by 54% year - on - year to 458.6 GWh, and the month - on - month increase in May was only about 2% [12]. 1.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to April 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 33.9% year - on - year to 5.97 million, compared with a 26.7% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the United States, the cumulative sales increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 523,000, compared with a 10.1% increase in the same period last year. In Europe, the cumulative sales increased by 24.6% year - on - year to 1.118 million, compared with an 11.3% increase in the same period last year. China's new energy vehicle exports increased by 52% year - on - year to 639,000, compared with a 21% increase in the same period last year [18]. - The EU's carbon emissions review has been postponed for two years, and the United States plans to cancel IRA subsidies [18]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - "Rush to Export" Maintains Orders but with Limited Increment - In the northwestern region of China, there is an oversupply of thermal power, the peak - valley electricity price difference has decreased significantly compared with 2023, the demand for wind, solar power, and energy storage has declined, and electricity prices are expected to fall [23]. - The marginal effect of the second round of "rush to export" is diminishing, and the month - on - month increase is relatively limited. The US plan to cancel IRA subsidies has a significant impact on local energy storage project construction [23]. - SMM expects the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells from January to May to be 166.7 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, compared with a 42% increase in the same period last year [23]. 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduled in June Remained Flat Month - on - Month - SMM's production schedule for June: Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, while ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month [26]. - From January to May, the cumulative production of power and energy storage cells increased by 57% year - on - year to 625.33 GWh [26]. - The spot market has difficulty in shipping. Due to smelter production cuts and reduced shipments, the basis is strong, but the downstream customer - supplied proportion is high, the receiving capacity is limited, and trading is light [26]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Increased - This week's rebound in lithium carbonate prices stimulated the continuous growth of weekly production. As smelters gradually resumed production in June, monthly production is expected to reach a new high. SMM expects June's lithium carbonate production to increase by 9% month - on - month to 78,800 tons [30]. - In May, the supply of lithium ore gradually became abundant, and lithium ore prices declined. It is expected that arrivals in June will continue to increase, and lithium ore prices still have room to fall [30]. - Due to the increase in recovery rate and the decrease in processing fees, the cost of converting the same ore price into lithium salt is lower than the same period last year [30]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not further elaborated on specific data trends in the given content, only the charts of production by different raw materials (salt lake, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling) are provided [32] 2.3 Supply Pressure of Lithium Carbonate Still Existed in June and Increased Further in July - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January to May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [42]. - Currently, Chile exports lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate to China, which diverts part of the lithium carbonate import volume. Although the apparent import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, the supply of lithium elements still exerts significant pressure [42]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Dynamics Turned to Surplus - Not further elaborated on specific surplus data and analysis in the given content, only the chart of lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is provided [44] 2.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory Continued to Accumulate - Lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate this week. As demand enters the off - season, downstream purchases cautiously and actively destocks. Spot demand remains low, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" persists [48]. - Since the current term structure does not provide delivery profits, spot - futures traders only choose to deliver when they cannot sell their spot goods, so the warehouse receipts may remain at a low level [48]. - Spot feedback indicates that inventory at all links in the industrial chain is not low, and it is difficult for upstream to sell goods. Inventory is expected to continue to increase, presenting an opportunity for reverse arbitrage [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].