行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.990 | 112.220 | 112.250 | 112.410 | 0.260 | 0.23 | 119192 | 142795 | -1510 | | TL2606 | 112.170 | 112.520 | 112.500 | 112.630 | 0.330 | 0.29 | 8741 | 21207 | 396 | | TL2609 | 112.060 | 112.280 | 112.290 | 112.420 | 0.230 | 0.21 | 101 | 381 | 25 | | T2603 | 108.005 | 107.990 | 108.010 | ...

证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 18 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20251214） 研究部/总量研究 财政政策方面，这次会议明确提出保持"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量"，预计明年的预算赤字率、新增政府债务规模等指标将维持现有 水平。货币政策方面，这次会议要求货币政策要将稳增长、促通胀两个任务 作为主要目标，再次提到运用降准降息等政策工具，预计明年货币政策将继续 调整政策利率、结构性政策工具利率以及法定存款准备金率。 明年经济工作共有八项重点工作，比去年少了一项，主要是将城乡工作和区 域协调两项工作合二为一。从顺序来看，防风险工作从去年的第六项后移 推荐（维持） 相关报告 q 【宏观 张一平】中央经济工作会议解读 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家 主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 形势判断：老问题、新挑战仍然不少。老问题主要在两个方面：其一，外部 环境变化影响加深。其二，重点领域风险隐患较多。新挑战指国内供强需弱矛 盾突出。去年对形势的判断虽然也强调国内需求不足，但没有指出供给偏强的 问题，反而认为 ...

Production - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, indicating resilience in industrial operations[1] - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November saw a month-on-month decline of 12.0%, with a cumulative growth rate dropping to -2.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Infrastructure investment showed a cumulative growth rate of 0.1% for broad infrastructure and -1.1% for narrow infrastructure, both continuing to decline[2] - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% cumulatively, with funding and sales also showing significant declines, indicating ongoing instability in housing prices[2] Consumption - Social retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from last year[3] - Restaurant consumption showed relative resilience with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while retail sales of goods increased by only 1.0%, reflecting a notable slowdown[3] Policy Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased due to continued weak demand, with the December Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal measures and enhancing macroeconomic governance[5] - The policy toolbox remains ample, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[5]

Group 1 - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for the upcoming year [4][5] - There is a notable "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies focus on maintaining cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for effective consumption support policies include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work meeting proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, focusing on demand-side short-term adjustments and supply-side structural improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4][5] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The construction of a modern industrial system is highlighted as a crucial aspect of cross-cyclical policies, focusing on upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors [5][6] - There is a call for deeper market-oriented reforms to stimulate microeconomic vitality and establish a unified national market, which is essential for effective policy transmission [6]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" for the upcoming year, focusing on building a strong domestic market [1] - There is a growing discussion about the "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies prioritize cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for boosting consumption include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work conference proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on demand-side policies and structural supply-side improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The average economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be around 4.5%, with 2026 GDP growth expected at 4.8% [6] - A modern industrial system is highlighted as a key focus for cross-cyclical policies, emphasizing the transformation of traditional industries and the development of strategic emerging industries [6]

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production growth rate was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with a deeper decline compared to the previous period[11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3%, which is a decrease of approximately 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[11] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points in growth rate[18] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point[18] - Real estate development investment from January to November was 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9%, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5%, indicating that the decline in automobile consumption negatively impacted overall consumer performance[25] - The growth rate of retail sales in urban areas was 1.0%, while rural areas saw a growth of 2.8%[21] - Consumption of furniture, building materials, and jewelry saw significant declines, with automobile consumption experiencing a deepening drop[22] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain stable economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[28] - Policies will include increasing central budget investment and implementing measures to stabilize investment and consumption[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[29]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 税期扰动渐显，银行间资金面边际收敛。今日公开市场有 1173 亿元到期，央 行投放了 1353 亿元，实现净回笼 714 亿元。银行间资金情绪指数平稳，资金利率 小幅抬升，其中银存间隔夜加权在 1.27%附近窄幅变动，7 天抬升 0.48bp 至 1.4488%，中长期资金平稳，1 年 AAA 存单利率在 1.64%~1.66%左右变动。 结论： 国内基本面从年中以来边际走弱，特别是投资端加速下滑仍对信用扩张形成 较大拖累，12 月政治局会议也定调"延续适度宽 ...

Group 1: Construction Materials Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes "internal strength" and highlights the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the construction materials industry, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms and potential investment opportunities in the cement sector [2][6][9] - The policy focus has shifted from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," suggesting a more gradual adjustment in demand-side policies for the upcoming year [2][6] - The cement sector remains the most valuable investment area within the construction materials industry, with expectations for a new round of supply-side reform [2][6] Group 2: Cosmetics Raw Materials Industry - The Chinese cosmetics raw materials market is projected to grow from CNY 1147.80 billion in 2019 to CNY 1603.90 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [10] - The peptide raw materials market is expected to grow from CNY 11.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 21.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.1% [10] - Leading companies in the industry include Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in the peptide raw materials sector [10][11] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with Jitu Express achieving record daily collection volumes in Brazil [15][16] - The international air transport association (IATA) forecasts a stable profit outlook for airlines, with a projected total net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026 [18] - The supply chain bottlenecks continue to restrict the growth of the aviation industry, with a structural mismatch between demand and available aircraft [18] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig price is expected to remain weak, with a recent increase to CNY 11.54/kg, but overall industry losses persist [31][32] - The central economic work conference has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing farmers' income, indicating a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [32] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" dilemma, with leading companies likely to gain market share as they adapt to changing conditions [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence between strong expectations and weak realities, with production data quality declining since May 2023, impacting demand assessments [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to November, but November alone saw a decline of 3.3% [2]. - The net export of steel reached 10.218 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by strong manufacturing exports [3]. - Domestic policies are shifting focus towards basic economic fundamentals, with an emphasis on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In November 2025, crude steel production was 6.987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the average daily production was 2.329 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for the first eleven months of 2025 grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November [2]. Exports and Imports - Steel exports for January to November 2025 totaled 10.772 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - The import of iron ore in November was 11.054 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first eleven months increased by 1.4% [8]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of domestic policies will increasingly center on structural adjustments, with an expectation of continued fiscal easing and reforms [4]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the steel sector, such as Huazhong Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from upcoming economic cycles [4].

021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.640 | 112.250 | 111.530 | 111.600 | -1.110 | -0.9 ...