Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Chongqing Branch has effectively implemented a moderately loose monetary policy to support the city's economic stability and growth in the first three quarters of the year, with a social financing scale increase of over 552 billion yuan [1] Financing Supply - The financing supply has been robust, with total indicators consistently outperforming the national average. In the first three quarters, the central bank injected 100.6 billion yuan, leading to an increase of 368.9 billion yuan in RMB loans, which is 91.9 billion yuan more than the previous year [1] - In the bond market, enterprises issued 159.76 billion yuan in bonds through the interbank market, including 12.594 billion yuan in asset-backed securities, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.44% [1] Efficient Allocation of Financial Resources - In the technology finance sector, the "Yangtze River Pilot Plan" has been implemented to integrate various financial resources, resulting in a loan balance of 864.1 billion yuan for technology enterprises, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [2] - The balance of loans for the private economy has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, reflecting the effectiveness of inclusive finance initiatives [2] - Green loans in Chongqing have exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of about 30% over the past five years, supporting over 170 enterprises in reducing carbon emissions by 3.3 million tons annually [2] Consumer Finance - The general consumer loan balance has increased by 21.3% year-on-year, driven by financial institutions' support for service consumption sectors such as accommodation, catering, and tourism [3] Low Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.01%, while personal housing loans averaged 3.14%, maintaining low levels to stimulate market activity [3] Financial Reform and Opening Up - The Chongqing Branch is advancing financial reforms to support the construction of an inland open comprehensive hub, with financing in related fields exceeding 700 billion yuan [4] Future Plans - The People's Bank of China Chongqing Branch aims to maintain stable growth in credit volume, with plans to inject an additional 30 billion yuan in low-cost funds by year-end [4] - Continued focus on enhancing financial support for key sectors and weak links, including the promotion of digital financial services and cross-border settlement systems [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market had a mixed performance this week. Most major indices rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3%. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was influenced by Sino - US talks, rising at first and then falling back due to the lack of new short - term news [6][14]. - The bond market strengthened this week. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market. The economic fundamentals' recovery and the implementation of loose fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which may also drive long - term interest rates down [6]. - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile. Powell's hawkish stance pushed up the US dollar index, which had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, gold as a safe - haven asset offset some of the decline [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term due to the narrowing of the US - EU interest rate spread, and the Japanese yen is likely to be under pressure in the short term [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock Market**: The CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, while the CSI 300 Stock Index Futures rose 0.10%. The overall A - share market rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3% and other indices rising less than 1%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger. The market was affected by Sino - US talks, rising from Monday to Wednesday and falling back from Thursday to Friday. The trading volume increased compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6][14]. - **Bond Market**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.18% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.33BP. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.62%. The central bank's operations are expected to inject liquidity, and the market sentiment was boosted. The allocation suggestion is to trade within a range [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.96%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.05%. The market is expected to remain volatile. The allocation suggestion is to mainly stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.50%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.53%. The US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term, and the yen is likely to be under pressure. The allocation suggestion is to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [6][12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Global Trade and Politics**: Sino - US reached a consensus on the trade framework, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment declined. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown, and the tariff on Brazil was "symbolically" vetoed [12][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were significant differences within the Fed on future interest - rate paths. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept their interest rates unchanged [12][17]. - **Domestic Policy**: The central bank's governor said that the moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in detail, and new policy measures would be studied and reserved [14]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, the annual growth rate of industrial enterprise profits above designated size was 21.6%. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 [13][18]. - **US**: In August, the monthly rate of the FHFA house price index was 0.4%, and the annual growth rate of the S&P/CS20 - city non - seasonally adjusted house price index was 1.6%. The Fed cut the upper limit of the interest rate to 4% [18]. - **EU**: The initial annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 1.3%, and the unemployment rate in September was 6.3%. The European Central Bank kept the deposit mechanism interest rate at 2% [12][18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as the manufacturing PMI of France, Germany, the eurozone, and the UK, the PPI monthly rate of the eurozone, the ADP employment data in the US, and the Chinese export and import data in October will be released [82].

Group 1 - As of the end of September, Hubei Province's total loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 9.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 1 percentage point, making it the highest in the central region [1] - In the first nine months, Hubei Province added 637.5 billion yuan in loans, an increase of 79.6 billion yuan compared to the previous year, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The total deposits in Hubei Province stood at 10.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [1] Group 2 - Financial resources are increasingly focused on key areas, with the balance of various structural policy tools used by financial institutions in Hubei Province reaching 249.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [2] - The balance of re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises reached 98.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, setting a historical high [2] - The growth rates for loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, small enterprises, digital economy industries, and green loans were 26.1%, 16%, 15.5%, and 24.4% respectively, all exceeding the provincial and national average loan growth rates [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - In October, most bond yields declined, with short-term interest rates rising and long-term rates falling in the government bond sector [4][18] - The overall yield of all credit bond varieties decreased significantly, with a notable drop in credit spreads [4][18] - The amount of defaults in October saw a substantial decrease, totaling 800 million [26] Group 2: Domestic and International Economic Fundamentals - The US economy showed signs of recovery, with the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs recorded at 52.0 and 55.2 respectively [30] - The US CPI inflation remained moderate, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in September, reflecting a slight rise [34] - Domestic GDP growth for Q3 was lower than expected, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, indicating a structural shift in the construction industry [39][48] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank has resumed operations in the government bond market, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [93][104] - The average R001 and R007 rates decreased to 1.37% and 1.48% respectively, reflecting a return to policy rates after the end of the quarter [10][95] Group 4: RWA Bonds and Market Opportunities - RWA bonds are defined as standardized debt financing tools based on stable cash flow assets, utilizing blockchain technology for tokenization [107] - The report highlights the operational mechanisms of RWA bonds, emphasizing their efficiency and transparency compared to traditional bonds and asset-backed securities [4][18] - The market is expected to present phase-specific opportunities as the central bank's resumption of bond purchases may indicate an over-adjustment in the bond market [4][29]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Hubei Branch has effectively implemented a series of financial policies to support the local economy, focusing on major projects and key industries, resulting in significant increases in credit and loan support for businesses and consumers [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Support and Policy Implementation - As of the end of September, 21 commercial banks in Hubei provided convenient interest subsidies for 5,500 service industry entities and 88,000 consumers, amounting to 7.9 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan in loans respectively [2][3]. - The total credit amount for investment projects exceeding 100 million yuan in Hubei has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, contributing to a 12.6% year-on-year increase in medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector, which is 2.64 percentage points higher than the previous year [3][4]. Group 2: Focus on Key Sectors - Financial resources in Hubei are increasingly concentrated on key areas such as technological innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises, with the balance of various structural policy tools reaching 249.3 billion yuan, a 13.5% year-on-year increase [4]. - The balance of re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises reached 98.5 billion yuan, marking a 42% year-on-year increase and setting a historical high [4]. Group 3: Enhancements in Financial Services - The province has utilized digital tools to enhance financial service efficiency, with loans issued through the "301" online credit model totaling 447.1 billion yuan, and 352 billion yuan through a credit information platform for small enterprises [5]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in September dropped to 2.99%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points compared to the same month last year, reflecting efforts to lower financing costs [5]. Group 4: Future Directions - The PBOC Hubei Branch plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and enhance financial support measures to improve service quality and provide robust financial backing for Hubei's "pivot construction" [5].

Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization[2] - The plan aims to optimize traditional industries while fostering emerging and future industries, focusing on high-level technological self-reliance[3] - It highlights the need for breakthroughs in key core technologies in areas such as integrated circuits and advanced materials to enhance national innovation capabilities[3] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - The plan proposes actions to boost consumption and effective investment, addressing the impact of real estate market adjustments on durable goods consumption[4] - It suggests enhancing residents' consumption capacity and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automobiles and housing[4] - The government aims to maintain reasonable investment growth and improve investment efficiency by optimizing investment structures and clarifying investment directions[4] Group 3: Macro Policy Implementation - The plan calls for a moderately loose monetary policy and the resumption of government bond trading in the open market[4] - It emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness[4] - The central bank will implement a one-time personal credit relief policy in early 2026 to alleviate residents' debt burdens and stabilize the real estate market[4] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with the expansion of fiscal policy and the extent of monetary policy easing not meeting expectations[5]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of financial work in supporting economic stability and high-quality development, guided by the principles set forth by Xi Jinping and the central government [3][4]. Financial Work Progress and Achievements - Since November 2024, the financial system has focused on stabilizing and improving support for the real economy, enhancing financial regulation, and deepening financial reform and opening up, achieving significant results [5]. - Monetary policy measures have been implemented, including a series of adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements, leading to a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in social financing scale and 8.4% in broad money supply by September [5]. Financial Industry Operation and Regulation - As of September 2025, total assets of financial institutions exceeded 520 trillion yuan, with commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio at 15.36% and non-performing loan ratio at 1.52% [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.4% from November 2024 to September 2025, with average daily trading volume significantly increasing [6]. Financial Support for the Real Economy - From November 2024 to September 2025, A-share IPOs raised 91.8 billion yuan, with 86% from private enterprises and 92% from strategic emerging industries [7]. - Loans for technology, green, inclusive, elderly, and digital economy sectors grew by 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [7]. Financial Reform and Opening Up - The report highlights the deepening of financial institution reforms, including a 520 billion yuan capital increase for state-owned banks and the expansion of the bond market [8]. - The RMB has become the largest currency for cross-border payments in China, with significant progress in internationalization and cross-border payment systems [8]. Risk Prevention and Mitigation - Measures have been taken to address risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with a 71% decrease in the number of financing platforms and a 62% reduction in operating financial debt by September 2025 [9]. - The report outlines efforts to support the real estate market and combat illegal financial activities, with a focus on maintaining financial stability [9]. Centralized Leadership in Financial Work - The report stresses the importance of adhering to the centralized leadership of the Party in financial work, enhancing the supervision and regulation of financial activities [10]. Future Work Considerations - The focus will be on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing financial regulation, and providing high-quality financial services to support key sectors [11][12]. - Continued efforts will be made to deepen financial supply-side structural reforms and promote high-level financial openness while safeguarding national financial security [13].

Core Insights - The report presented to the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress emphasizes the financial system's commitment to maintaining stability while enhancing support for the real economy, strengthening financial regulation, and deepening financial reform and opening-up [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of substantial monetary policy measures since September 2024, including further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1][2] - The execution and transmission of monetary policy have been strengthened, resulting in ample liquidity and historically low social financing costs, which positively impacts financial market confidence and economic recovery [1] Group 2: Financial Services Enhancement - Financial services in key areas and weak links have improved, with the establishment of a policy framework and mechanisms to support technology innovation, including the creation of a "Technology Board" in the bond market and increasing re-lending quotas for technology innovation and agricultural support [2] - By September 2025, loans for technology, green initiatives, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy sectors grew significantly, with increases of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [2] Group 3: Regulatory and Structural Reforms - The report calls for the implementation of moderately loose monetary policies to create a conducive financial environment for economic recovery, alongside enhancing financial regulation and risk prevention measures [3] - Continuous efforts will be made to deepen supply-side structural reforms in finance and promote high-level bilateral financial openness while maintaining national financial security [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is “Oscillation” [3] 2. Report's Core View - After the short - term digestion of news, Treasury bond futures may continue the seesaw effect with stocks and be volatile in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and moved sideways after the morning session. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.55%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.25%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.08% [3] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 457.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market increased compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.45% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.56% (1.58% the previous day) [3] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds decreased compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased 4.06 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year decreased 3.30 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year decreased 2.44 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year decreased 3.31 BP to 2.17% [3] - On the 28th, the central bank website released the State Council's report on the financial work situation, stating that in the next step, it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain ample liquidity, and promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost [3] Market Logic - Over the weekend, China and the US reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns in economic and trade consultations in Malaysia. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated sideways throughout the day, and closed with a doji. The trading volume was 2.17 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 2.36 trillion yuan the previous day. Stimulated by the news of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading operations, Treasury bond futures opened sharply higher on Tuesday [3] Trading Strategy - After the short - term digestion of news, Treasury bond futures may continue the seesaw effect with stocks and be volatile in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band trading [3][4]

Group 1: Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion in seven-year bonds with a winning yield of 3.790%, marking a new low since September 2024, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 [1] - The auction of six-month bonds had a winning yield of 3.445% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.21 [1] - The auction of 52-week bonds yielded 3.880% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.87 [1] Group 2: Credit Bond ETF Performance - The total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 486.2 billion yuan, increasing by 4.4 billion yuan in a single day, with the benchmark market-making ETF rising by 120 million yuan and the Sci-Tech bond ETF increasing by 401 million yuan [4] - The median weighted duration of these ETFs is 3.2 years, with an average transaction amount of 5.01 million yuan and a median turnover rate of 50.6% [4] - The median yield is 1.87%, with a median discount rate of -13.8 basis points [4] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Insights - The company bond ETF (511030) saw a counter-trend growth of 102 million yuan, attributed to its short duration (1.94 years), static high yield (currently 1.95%), and minimal discount [4] - As of October 28, 2025, the company bond ETF has increased by 0.06%, achieving four consecutive days of gains, with a year-to-date increase of 1.26% [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 23.346 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year, with a total of 2.19 billion shares, also a six-month high [6] Group 4: Fund Flows and Leverage - The company bond ETF experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 14.6 million yuan, totaling 26.8 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of 6.7 million yuan [7] - Leverage funds are actively positioning in the company bond ETF, with a net financing purchase of 1.4457 million yuan on the previous trading day and a latest financing balance of 4.2489 million yuan [8] Group 5: Performance Metrics - Over the past five years, the net value of the company bond ETF has increased by 13.23%, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% and the longest consecutive monthly gain of 9 months [8] - The maximum drawdown in the last six months was 0.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.06% [9] - The management fee for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, with a tracking error of 0.013% over the past year [10]