万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观窗口与情绪交织， 矿价宽幅震荡 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/07/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算6月全球铁矿石发运周均值3431.85万吨，环比+222.45万吨；6月，澳洲发往中国周均值1758.03万吨，较上月变化+175.41万吨。 巴西发运量周均值834.55万吨，较上月变化+41.19万吨。测算45港到港量周均值2479.88万吨，较上月环比+127.20万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算6月日均铁水产量241.93万吨，较上月变化-1.84万吨。 ◆ 库存：6月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13930.23万吨，较上月变化+63.65万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值319.29万吨，较上月变化 +5.61万吨；钢厂进口铁矿石库存8847.47万吨，较上月末变化+93.14万吨。 ◆ 小结：展望7月，供给方面， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore market is "Oscillating Weakly" for unilateral trading, while there are no ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the overall supply of iron ore is on the rise. Affected by the resumption of production after steel mill inspections, the molten iron output increased slightly this week. Considering the current decent profits of steel mills, the iron ore consumption maintains resilience. The subsequent decline in molten iron output depends on the off - season demand for finished steel products and the profits of steel mills. Due to the increase in the number of ships berthed at ports, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased slightly. In the long run, the iron ore market still shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. Attention should be continuously paid to the off - season molten iron output and changes in iron ore inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread - This week, the iron ore futures price oscillated. As of the Friday close, the main contract of iron ore futures closed at 703 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 93 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.85%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 710 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 1.25% [1][5] Supply - Mysteel statistics show that the global iron ore shipment this period was 33.53 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58 million tons. Among them, the shipment from Brazil increased, while those from Australia and non - mainstream regions decreased. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.845 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.248 million tons [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 7.36%; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0057 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00224 million tons [1][10][11] Inventory - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 138.9416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3898 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1356 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1231 million tons [1][13]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,894.16 -38.98 13,866.58 27.58 14,883.27 -989.11 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,936.24 137.56 8,754.33 181.91 9,214.13 -277.89 45港铁矿石到货量 2,384.50 -224.80 2,151.30 233.20 2,207.40 177.10 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,352.70 -157.70 3,188.70 164.00 3,455.00 -102.30 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 242.18 0.57 241.91 0.27 239.94 2.24 45港日均疏港量 313.56 12.31 326.68 -13.12 311.52 2.04 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 301.00 0.57 299.68 1.32 294.01 6.99 主港铁矿成交周均值 100.45 15.63 96.94 3.51 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/6/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 695.50 | -3.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 685,064 | +9401↑ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 25 | -4.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) ...

【现货】 日均铁水产量241.61万吨，环比-0.19万吨；高炉开工率83.41%，环比-0.15%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.58%，环比-0.07个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.44%，环比-0.43%。 【供给】 主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉+3至722元/吨，超特+7至620元/吨。 【期货】 截止昨日收盘，铁矿主力合约+0.21%（+1.5），收于704.5元/吨。 【基差】 最优交割品为巴混。PB粉和巴混粉仓单成本分别为763元和770元。09合约PB粉基差56元/吨。 【需求】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运-157.3万吨至3352.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2842.1万吨， 环比减少77.3万吨。澳洲发运量2059. ...

一、行情回顾 上周五晚，铁矿石期货2509合约涨0.28%，报705元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 全球铁矿石发运总量3352.7万吨，环比减少157.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2842.1万吨，环比减少 77.3万吨。 2025年6月9日—6月15日全球铁矿石发运总量3352.7万吨，环比减少157.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2842.1万吨，环比减少77.3万吨。澳洲发运量2059.3万吨，环比减少110.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量 1797.1万吨，环比减少94.9万吨。巴西发运量782.8万吨，环比增加33.2万吨。 国信期货：供应端，铁矿石进口量同比小幅回升，远月有增加预期。需求端，钢厂日均铁水产量本周高 位小幅回落，但仍在相对高位，需求有一定韧性。铁矿石现实供需情况较强，接下来季节性淡季市场预 期较弱。铁矿石盘面估值较低，但延续弱势。走势上看，短线延续震荡。操作建议:短线参与。 新世纪期货：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升态势，需求端铁水产量 环比回落0.19万吨至241.61万吨，连续五周下行，基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说 明当前240的高铁水仍旧能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The iron ore price may fluctuate widely within a range due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - I main contract closing price is 707 yuan/ton, up 8.50 yuan; I main contract position is 729,224 lots, up 8,129 lots; I 9 - 1 contract spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; I contract top 20 net position is - 21,617 lots, up 8,492 lots; I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, unchanged; Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00 is 95.25 US dollars/ton, up 0.87 US dollars [2] Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore is 788 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan; Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac ore is 767 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan; Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special powder ore is 678 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; I main contract basis is 60 yuan, down 1 yuan; Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day) is 94.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars; Jiangsu scrap steel/Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac ore is 3.52, down 0.04; Import cost estimate is 786 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Australia and Brazil iron ore shipping departure volume (weekly) is 3,510.40 tons, up 79.40 tons; China's 47 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2,673.90 tons, up 76.50 tons; 45 - port iron ore inventory (weekly) is 13,826.69 tons, down 39.89 tons; Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly) is 8,690.18 tons, down 64.15 tons; Iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,813.10 tons, down 500.90 tons; Iron ore available days (weekly) is 17 days, down 1 day; 266 mines' daily output (weekly) is 38.48 tons, down 3.96 tons; 266 mines' operating rate (weekly) is 61.19%, down 5.76%; 266 mines' iron concentrate powder inventory (weekly) is 62.79 tons, up 3.39 tons; BDI Index is 1,680, down 11; Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao is 23.40 US dollars/ton, down 0.81 US dollars; West Australia - Qingdao is 9.68 US dollars/ton, down 0.54 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly) is 83.54%, down 0.35%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly) is 90.63%, down 0.04%; Domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 8,602 tons, down 682 tons [2] Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily) is 17.95%, up 0.54%; Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily) is 19.10%, down 0.83%; At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily) is 15.78%, down 1.53%; At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily) is 16.03%, up 0.01% [2] Industry News - The World Bank lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, and trade disputes and policy uncertainties are expected to hinder economic growth; From June 2nd to June 8th, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,252.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 55.9 tons, and the inventory has been declining continuously [2]

快速开户 微信公众号 铁矿石期货周报 铁 水 韧 性 维 持 ， 盘 面 宽 幅 震 荡 徐艺丹 投资咨询资格：Z0020017 期货从业资格：F03125507 联系方式：020-88818017 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 短期观点 品种 主要观点 本周操作建议 上周操作建议 供应：本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运+242.3万吨至3431万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨，环比增加 78.8万吨。澳洲发运量1920.5万吨，环比减少92.7万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨，环比减少281.4万吨。巴西发运 量948.3万吨，环比增加171.5万吨。45港口到港量2536.5万吨，环比增加385.2万吨。 需求：日均铁水产量241.8万吨，环比-0.11万吨；高炉开工率83.56%，环比-0.31%；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.65%，环比 -0.04个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.87%，环比持平。 铁矿石（I） 库存：截至5月22日，45港库存13987.83万吨，环比-178.26万吨；周内钢厂多为常规检修，日均疏港量维持高位，但以 转水为主，库存降幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a sideways pattern, while the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the positive factors for demand are weakening, and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening during the off - season, leading to a continuous decline in ore demand and a weakening of positive effects. Meanwhile, port arrivals have slightly increased, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is active, resulting in high ore supply. The situation of strong supply and weak demand puts pressure on the ore price. However, the deep discount of the futures price provides some resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price has entered a low - level sideways pattern, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is sideways, the medium - term trend is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that demand positives are weakening and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is weakening during the off - season, ore demand is declining, and the positive effect is weakening. Port arrivals have increased slightly, overseas miners' shipments are high, and domestic ore production is active, so the supply pressure remains. The situation of strong supply and weak demand puts pressure on the ore price. The deep discount of the futures price provides resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is in a low - level sideways pattern, and the performance of finished steel products should be noted [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the steel industry has weakened on a month - on - month basis, and steel prices are under downward pressure. The market is affected by factors such as overseas tariff threats and domestic policy vacuums, with a focus on the changes in the industrial supply - demand structure. The destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down, and the prices of raw materials have declined, dragging down the prices of finished products [3]. - The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also under downward pressure. The supply of iron ore has a potential increase, while demand is weakening. For coking coal and coke, the market is weak due to factors such as reduced mine开工率, low transaction rates, and the expectation of a second price cut for coke [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As the domestic macro - policy entered a vacuum period, the market focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The five major steel products continued to destock, but the destocking slowed down. With the approaching of the rainy season, the market was hesitant. After the first price cut of coke, the cost reduction further dragged down the steel price [9]. - The prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke in the spot and futures markets generally showed a downward trend, and there were also corresponding changes in positions, basis, spreads, and inventories [10]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National weekly production of rebar increased to 226.53 tons (month - on - month +1.34%, year - on - year - 3.02%), and that of hot - rolled coil decreased to 311.98 tons (month - on - month - 2.62%, year - on - year - 3.91%). The production of both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly to 83.69% (month - on - month - 0.55%, year - on - year +2.69%), while the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.18% (month - on - month +2.63%, year - on - year +5.15%) [16][18][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit shrank to +88 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 14.56%, year - on - year - 46.99%), and hot - rolled coil profit improved on a month - on - month basis to +40 yuan/ton (week - on - week +29.03%, year - on - year - 54.55%) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased to 247.13 tons (month - on - month - 5.06%, year - on - year - 1.11%), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased to 313.06 tons (month - on - month - 4.99%, year - on - year - 4.51%). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.53 tons (month - on - month - 13.33%, year - on - year - 32.27%) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased to 604.22 tons (month - on - month - 2.52%, year - on - year - 22.94%), with the decline slowing down, the factory inventory slightly increasing, and the social inventory continuing to decline. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased to 340.19 tons (month - on - month - 2.12%, year - on - year - 17.66%), with both factory and social inventories decreasing [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% month - on - month and 0.19% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.20% month - on - month and 40.61% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in April 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month but up 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 2729.2 tons (month - on - month +0.85%, year - on - year - 0.75%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased to 2151.3 tons (month - on - month - 5.28%, year - on - year - 11.25%). The iron ore price index was 99.58 (month - on - month - 2.57%, year - on - year - 16.86%) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 243.6 tons (month - on - month - 1.17 tons, year - on - year +6.8 tons), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports increased to 327.09 tons (month - on - month +0.99%, year - on - year +12.13%). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.57 days (month - on - month - 0.03%, year - on - year - 8.34%) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased to 13987.83 tons (month - on - month - 1.26%, year - on - year - 5.87%), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 8925.48 tons (month - on - month - 0.40%, year - on - year - 4.43%). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (month - on - month - 3.57%, year - on - year +2.55%) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 86.3% (month - on - month - 3.32%, year - on - year - 1.19%), the operating rate of coal washing plants increased to 62.36% (month - on - month +0.45%, year - on - year - 8.71%), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased to 15.93 tons (month - on - month +2.97%, year - on - year - 10.20%) [77]. - **Transaction Rate**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.01% (week - on - week +17.01%, year - on - year - 39%), and the weekly transaction rate was 59.98% (week - on - week - 2.09%, year - on - year +7.74%) [79]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 15 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 22 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 49 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.18% (month - on - month - 0.07%, year - on - year +3.10%). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 75.87% [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 737.89 tons (month - on - month - 1.93%, year - on - year - 3.85%), the steel mill coking coal inventory increased to 798.58 tons (month - on - month +0.96%, year - on - year +6.15%), and the coking coal port inventory decreased to 301.56 tons (month - on - month - 1.48%, year - on - year +31.40%) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 73.1 tons (month - on - month +11.70%, year - on - year +58.19%), the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased to 660.59 tons (month - on - month - 0.48%, year - on - year +18.26%), and the coke port inventory decreased to 223.10 tons (month - on - month - 0.90%, year - on - year +5.09%) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of coking coal is weakening, and the first price cut of coke has been implemented. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 720 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1150 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 50 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 650 yuan/ton) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has slightly widened. The 9 - 01 spread of iron ore has slightly shrunk, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has fluctuated within a narrow range [105][111].