研究所 宏观回暖 铁矿震荡反弹 ----国信期货铁矿石周报 2025年5月18日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 受中美谈判影响，铁矿石本周震荡反弹。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.2 铁矿现货走势 | PB粉 | 770 | 806 | | --- | --- | --- | | 超特粉 | 639 | 837 | | 金布巴粉 | 733 | 881 | | 巴混 | 786 | 807 | | 麦克 | 751 | 816 | | 纽曼 | 763 | 823 | 品种 价格 仓单 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 | 品类 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 主力基差 | 36.5 | | 09-01 | 38.5 | | pb-超特 | ...

Market Overview - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 national ports is 141.66 million tons, a decrease of 726,200 tons month-on-month [1] - The average daily dispatch volume is 3.24 million tons, an increase of 86,800 tons [1] - The number of vessels in port is 83, an increase of 4 [1] Trading Activity - On May 15, the total iron ore transaction at major national ports was 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% month-on-month [2] - The forward spot transaction was 1.56 million tons on the same day [2] - Shipping costs from Western Australia to China are $7.38 per ton, an increase of $0.03 per ton; from Brazil to China, the cost is $18.3 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipping volume has slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing, leading to a slight recovery in shipping volume, while Brazilian shipping volume has significantly decreased [3] - The demand side shows one new blast furnace resuming production and four undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in pig iron production by 8,700 tons to 2.4477 million tons [3] - Current iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 147.47 million tons, a decrease of 177,200 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 8.961 million tons [3] Future Outlook - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, the raw material supply is expected to remain weak, but there is still room for pig iron production to increase, supported by steel mill profits and strong resumption momentum [4] - Recent global iron ore shipments have decreased, mainly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, with rapid inventory depletion at ports [4] - Mid-term supply-demand imbalance pressure is significant, with expected growth in iron ore shipments in the second half of the year, while short-term lacks clear driving forces [4]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Yesterday's steel data showed that the apparent demand recovered but continued to decline after reaching a peak. The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products decreased, while the inventory continued to be depleted. The apparent demand in May decreased slightly compared to April. After the tariff reduction, the export orders improved. The steel market is characterized by strong supply and demand at the industrial end, continuous inventory depletion, and support from export and re - export. With low inventory support, the improvement of macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the transmission of terminal restocking to the spot market. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coil is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil spot price in North China remained unchanged at 3230 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel billet, plate billet, and different steel production methods (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar) had different changes. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed fluctuations. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 15 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the output of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, the rebar output increased by 3.0 tons to 226.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 8.4 tons to 312.0 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons to 619 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons to 347.6 tons [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The daily average trading volume of building materials decreased by 2.0 tons to 10.0 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 20.0 tons to 329.5 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated, and the 5 - 9 spread continued to rise. Fundamentally, the daily average pig iron output reached a peak and then declined this week, and the port clearance volume increased slightly. It is expected that the pig iron output will remain at a high level in the short term. The finished steel data shows resilience, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil and rebar rebounding and the overall inventory depletion pattern continuing. The inventory of iron ore decreased slightly under the high - level pig iron output, and the steel mill inventory remained low. The terminal demand of finished steel determines the sustainability of the high - level pig iron output, and the marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. Currently, the steel billet export exceeds expectations. In the future, the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase as the overseas mine shipments peak in May - June and the arrival peak has not yet come. In addition, the improvement of macro - expectations may bring sentiment repair. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) decreased slightly, while the 09 contract basis of various iron ore powders increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.5 yuan/ton to 65.0 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 38.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of different iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 1.4 dollars/ton to 97.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased by 1.6 dollars/ton to 102.8 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 95.1 tons to 2354.6 tons, the global weekly shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons to 3029.0 tons, and the monthly national import volume decreased by 22.4 tons to 9397.4 tons. The weekly daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 245.6 tons, the weekly daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 16.6 tons to 315.2 tons, the monthly national pig iron output increased by 859.5 tons to 7529.4 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output increased by 1687.2 tons to 9284.1 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 102.2 tons to 14340.88 tons, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 376.1 tons to 8959.0 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View As of yesterday's close, the coke futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. China's tariff reduction on the US since the 14th has driven a general rise in commodity prices due to macro - level benefits. On the spot side, the market proposed a price increase, but mainstream steel mills proposed a price cut for coke on the 13th, which is expected to be implemented on the 16th. After the May Day holiday, the ex - factory price of coke is temporarily stable, and the port trade price is weak. On the supply side, due to the increase in downstream pig iron output, coke enterprises have good orders and continuous improvement in production, and the coking profit has also been repaired. On the demand side, the pig iron output in May continued to be above 240 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed. There is no obvious inventory accumulation downstream, but attention should be paid to the possibility of a decline in pig iron output in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills is decreasing. Considering the steel mills' price cut for coke, the futures market is following the expected price - cut trend, and the fundamentals are still bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke (equal - value) and pay attention to the signal of the coke price reaching a phased bottom [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi Grade 1 wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1472 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1499 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread weakened to - 27. The weekly coking profit increased by 6 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [5]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt and Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 899 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread strengthened to - 16. The weekly profit of sample coal mines decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 382 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, and the weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 94.3 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.2 tons to 663.8 tons, the available days of steel mills decreased by 0.1 days to 12.0 days, and the port inventory decreased by 4.0 tons to 225.1 tons [5]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.1 tons to - 4.5 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View As of yesterday's close, the coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. China's tariff reduction on the US since the 14th has driven a general rise in commodity prices due to macro - level benefits. On the spot side, the market continued to decline slightly. The futures market, due to pessimistic market expectations, led the spot market in decline and showed a deep - discount structure, with large hedging pressure on the futures and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price, remaining in a weak situation. The market auction was cold again, and the transaction prices of various coal types adjusted downward slightly. The supply - demand relaxation pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the output was at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream blast furnace and coking plant operations increased slightly, and downstream users still mainly replenished inventory as needed. The pig iron output in May continued to be above 240 tons per day. As the peak season of steel (March - April) is coming to an end, attention should be paid to the possibility of the pig iron output reaching a peak and then declining after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the coal mine inventory continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices for sales. The port inventory decreased faster, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal (equal - value) and pay attention to the signal of the coking coal price reaching a phased bottom [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt and Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 899 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread strengthened to - 16. The weekly profit of sample coal mines decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 382 yuan/ton [5]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal increased by 0.6 dollars/ton to 204 dollars/ton, the warehouse - pick - up price of Hong Kong - Macau main - coking coal at Jingtang Port remained unchanged at 1280 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - pick - up price of Hong Kong - Macau thermal coal at Guangzhou Port decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 719 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal output increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, and the weekly clean coal output increased by 1.9 tons to 459.2 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, and the weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 31.7 tons to 884.9 tons, the available days decreased by 0.4 days to 9.9 days, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.0 tons to 791.2 tons, the available days increased by 0.1 days to 12.6 days, and the port inventory increased by 8.3 tons to 306.1 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract showed a slight movement. Recently, environmental inspections have entered Inner Mongolia, and large - scale factories in Inner Mongolia may shut down furnaces, with an estimated daily output reduction of 800 tons. In addition, large - scale factories in the main production area of Ningxia have a cumulative daily output reduction of about 1400 tons this week. After the previous production reduction, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, the pig iron output remains at a high level, the steel mill profit is repaired, and the apparent demand of steel products shows resilience, and the low - inventory pattern continues. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports in the future. In terms of non - ferrous demand, the price of metallic iron remains strong due to raw material factors, but the downstream demand support is limited, and the procurement is cautious. Overseas orders are poor, and inquiries are few. In terms of cost, the price of blue carbon is stable. With low inventory and supply reduction, the supply - demand contradiction is limited. In terms of electricity price, Ningxia will no longer use the electricity spot market settlement in May, and the electricity price may increase. The short - term electricity price fluctuation has come to an end. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The price change still depends on the cost. The price has temporarily stabilized, and with the release of macro - level benefits, it is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the rebound is more due to valuation repair and macro - factors, and there is a lack of momentum for a strong upward trend [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the ferromanganese main contract rose slightly. Fundamentally, ferromanganese production continued to be reduced, and the scope of production reduction in Inner Mongolia and Chongqing factories has expanded recently, and the output has accelerated its decline. Currently, affected by the continuous decline in the futures price, the hedging profit on the futures market is gradually in a loss state, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts have begun to decline. On the demand side, the pig iron output remains at a high level, the steel mill profit is repaired, and the apparent demand of steel products shows resilience, and the low - inventory pattern continues. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports in the future. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipment decreased this week. Affected by the increase in the arrival of South African ore, the port inventory decreased, but considering the future manganese ore shipment plan, the arrival of manganese ore will still remain at a high level. Affected by the overseas mines' reduction of forward - period quotes, the import profit of port traders is inverted, and manganese ore is under the pressure of negative feedback in smelting and potential supply release. In the future, the short - term ferromanganese price will continue to fluctuate. With the warehouse receipts stopping increasing and starting to decrease, the cost support on the futures market is weakened, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and at the same time, the cost of manganese ore has gradually stabilized due to the traders' profit inversion. Coupled with the positive macro - level factors, it is expected that the price will fluctuate, stabilize, and rebound, but the rebound is more due to valuation repair and macro - factors, and there is a lack of momentum for a strong upward trend [6]. Summary by Directory - **Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 18.0 yuan/ton to 5660.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) showed various changes. The difference between the Inner Mongolia spot price and the main contract price increased by 18.0 yuan/ton to - 260.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton to 5876.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi) remained unchanged. The difference between the Guangxi spot price and the main contract price decreased by 12

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月13日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 3082 | 3105 | 3115 | 3066 | 3079 | 0.88% | 1,930,069 | 2,151,176 | -29,285 | -0.68 | | HC2510 | 3220 | 3245 | 3255 | 3202 ...

Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Politburo meeting, the market gradually returns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The five major steel products are continuously destocking. The increase in production is mainly concentrated in hot - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with both weekly production and demand decreasing, and destocking slightly slowing down, but the overall inventory is low, and there is a shortage of specifications in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to support spot prices. Hot - rolled coils have both increasing production and demand, with short - term demand having certain resilience, and the export pressure has not fully emerged, but attention should be paid to the weakening of export orders from May to June. Recently, there has been an obvious increase in billet export feedback, which helps to relieve the pressure of overall steel supply. At the same time, there are rumors of steel mills controlling production and reducing volume, which need to be continuously monitored. Before the holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. - For iron ore, the supply of iron ore has increased, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. The supply - demand is loose, and the price still faces pressure. The short - term price tends to fluctuate in a low - level range. Before the May Day holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and there are great uncertainties in the overseas market during the holiday, so it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal is stable, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level. There is certain restocking support in the market before the holiday, and the port coking coal continues to destock, but the absolute quantity is still at a historical high level in the same period, and the medium - and long - term loose pattern remains unchanged. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, and the game of the second round of coke price increase has intensified, and whether it can be implemented before the holiday remains to be seen. The increase in hot metal provides certain support for the raw material end, but considering the limited subsequent increase and the enhanced willingness of funds to leave the market before the holiday, the price still shows pressure, and the overall situation shows a low - level shock, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The macro - environment has warmed up, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have both shown a low - level rebound trend, and the basis has widened. The inventory of the industry continues to be destocked, but the destocking of rebar and hot - rolled coils has slowed down to varying degrees. Due to the relatively low absolute inventory of rebar and the shortage of specifications in the market, the willingness to support prices is strong. The export pressure of hot - rolled coils has not fully emerged [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly production is 229.11 tons (down 0.05% month - on - month, up 3.18% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production is 317.5 tons (up 0.99% month - on - month, up 0.60% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production increased slightly, and electric furnace production decreased [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is +98 yuan/ton (up 34.25% week - on - week, down 36.36% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is +29 yuan/ton (up 31.82% week - on - week, down 79.72% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 259.94 tons (down 5.07% month - on - month, down 2.31% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions is 12.13 tons (up 9.10% month - on - month, down 19.14% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 324.36 tons (up 0.06% month - on - month, up 0.28% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 702.33 tons (down 4.21% month - on - month, down 25.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 367.69 tons (down 1.83% month - on - month, down 10.32% year - on - year) [42][47]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 12.14% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year; the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.26% week - on - week and decreased by 30.78% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [51][54]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 27.584 million tons (up 13.16% month - on - month, up 6.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 25.128 million tons (up 8.06% month - on - month, up 27.06% year - on - year) [62]. - **Demand**: Hot metal daily output is 2.4435 million tons (up 423,000 tons month - on - month, up 683,000 tons year - on - year), and the port ore handling volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 3.2792 million tons (up 5.95% month - on - month, up 1.16% year - on - year) [67]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore is 142.61 million tons (up 1.46% month - on - month, down 3.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 90.7303 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year) [73]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operation rate of coking coal mines is 88.38% (up 0.78% month - on - month, up 3.37% year - on - year), and the operation rate of coal washing plants is 63.01% (up 1.79% month - on - month, down 6.15% year - on - year). The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 138,100 tons (down 2.48% month - on - month, up 63.94% year - on - year) [79]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions is 75.36% (down 5.86% week - on - week, down 18.65% year - on - year) [82]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 9 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 117 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 75.27% (up 2.53% month - on - month, up 15.23% year - on - year) [88]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 8.2006 million tons (down 1.21% month - on - month, up 26.74% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at the port is 3.2479 million tons (down 3.73% month - on - month, up 47.29% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 688,200 tons (up 1.27% month - on - month, up 35.74% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at the port is 2.4358 million tons (down 1.02% month - on - month, up 15.83% year - on - year) [94][100]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 600 yuan/ton year - on - year) [106]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts has shown a narrow - range fluctuation. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts has narrowed, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly widened [108][113].