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隐波下降,金融、商品市场整体上涨
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 03:11
Report Summary - The report focuses on the option market from November 24 to November 28, 2025, covering financial and commodity options, with a decline in implied volatility and an overall rise in the financial and commodity markets [1]. Financial Options Trading Volume and Open Interest - 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 749,700 contracts, a -7.02% decrease from the previous week. The put - call trading volume ratio was 1.02, lower than the previous week but higher than the historical average. The put - call open interest ratio was 0.99, higher than the previous week and the historical average [1]. - Other ETF and index options also had corresponding average daily trading volumes and open interests, such as Huatai - Ba瑞 300ETF options with an average daily trading volume of 1,045,400 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,325,000 contracts [1]. Implied Volatility - As of the end of Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 13.89%, a 2.10% decrease from a week ago; 50ETF options was 11.84%, a 2.43% decrease; and CSI 1000 index options was 17.75%, a 2.11% decrease [2]. Commodity Options Implied Volatility - As of the end of Friday, the implied volatility of most commodity options decreased, such as crude oil options (17.09%, -0.86% decrease), lithium carbonate options (37.43%, -6.50% decrease), etc. However, the implied volatility of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rubber options increased [2].
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251201
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:45
1. Report Overview - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated December 1, 2025, covering various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [1][2]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are showing a bullish upward trend, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended [2]. - For black metals, which maintain large - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding and warming up, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Futures Market Overview - **Copper (CU2601)**: The latest price is 88,740, up 1,530 (1.75%) with a trading volume of 9.45 million lots (down 0.08 million lots) and an open interest of 21.83 million lots (up 0.76 million lots) [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The latest price is 21,780, up 270 (1.26%) with a trading volume of 12.77 million lots (down 2.29 million lots) and an open interest of 26.07 million lots (up 0.35 million lots) [3]. - **Other Metals**: Similar data are provided for zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, gold, silver, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and glass [3]. 4.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Volume PCR**: It measures whether the underlying asset's market is at a turning point. For example, copper's volume PCR is 0.43 with no change [4]. - **Open Interest PCR**: It describes the strength of the underlying asset's market. For example, copper's open interest PCR is 0.83, up 0.02 [4]. 4.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Copper**: The pressure point is 90,000 and the support point is 84,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The pressure point is 22,000 and the support point is 21,000 [5]. - Other metals also have corresponding pressure and support levels provided [5]. 4.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Copper**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 14.83%, and the weighted implied volatility is 16.35% (up 0.49%) [6]. - **Aluminum**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.11%, and the weighted implied volatility is 10.42% (up 0.09%) [6]. - Similar data are given for other metals [6]. 4.5 Strategy and Recommendations 4.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility selling option portfolio strategy and a spot long hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull call spread strategy, a selling call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - Other non - ferrous metals like zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate also have corresponding strategies [9][10][11]. 4.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull call spread strategy, a short - volatility option selling combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 4.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [13]. - Other black metals such as manganese silicon, industrial silicon, and glass also have corresponding strategies [13][14][15].
能源化工期权:能源化工期权策略早报-20251201
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts are presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for different option varieties are provided, along with their changes. These factors are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning points of the market [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options, are presented for each option variety, which are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interests of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, are provided for each option variety. The weighted implied volatility is calculated using trading volume-weighted average [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The demand from US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil production has slightly declined during the recent oil price drop. OPEC's short-term supply remains flat. The market has shown a complex price trend from August to November [8] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540, and the support level is 430 [8] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - Construct a short position combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [8] 3.5.2 Energy Options - LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US propane inventory is starting to decline but remains at a historical high. The cost of crude oil is affected by supply surplus and geopolitical issues. LPG has shown a market trend of oversold rebound and consolidation from September to November [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to near the lower average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4200 [10] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a long position combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [10] 3.5.3 Alcohols Options - Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level. Methanol has shown a market trend of oversold rebound from August to November [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2300, and the support level is 2000 [10] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - Construct a short position combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [10] 3.5.4 Alcohols Options - Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory is expected to increase at a slower rate, and the supply - demand balance has improved. Ethylene glycol has shown a weak market trend from August to November [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates below the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong short - selling power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 3800 [11] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefins Options - Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PE and PP production enterprise and trader inventories have decreased. Polypropylene has shown a weak market trend from August to November [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [11] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - None; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Rubber inventory is expected to decrease significantly in mid - January. Rubber has shown a weak and volatile market trend from August to November [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the lower average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has significantly decreased to 16000, and the support level is 15000 [12] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a neutral combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - None [12] 3.5.7 Polyesters Options - PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA inventory has decreased, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking phase. PTA has shown a market trend of rebound from August to November [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [12] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a neutral combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - None [12] 3.5.8 Alkaline Chemicals Options - Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply is sufficient, and the downstream alumina market is in a stalemate. Caustic soda has shown a weak and bearish market trend from August to November [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2200 [13] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio; Volatility strategy - None; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13] 3.5.9 Alkaline Chemicals Options - Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Soda ash inventory has decreased. Soda ash has shown a low - level and volatile market trend from August to November [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [13] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - Construct a bear spread portfolio; Volatility strategy - Construct a short - volatility combination; Spot hedging strategy - Construct a long collar strategy [13] 3.5.10 Other Energy and Chemicals Options - Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. Urea has shown a market trend of low - level consolidation and rebound from August to November [14] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy - None; Volatility strategy - Construct a long - biased combination of call and put options; Spot hedging strategy - Hold a long position in the spot + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14]
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251128
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:49
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility seller strategy is recommended as they are trending upwards; for the black metals sector, a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable due to large - scale fluctuations; for precious metals, a bull spread portfolio strategy is suggested as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 87,050, with a decline of 20 and a decrease rate of 0.02%. The trading volume is 9.53 million lots, and the open interest is 21.07 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: This indicator describes the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper is 0.43, with a change of 0.02, and the open interest PCR is 0.81, with a change of - 0.00 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper is 90,000, and the support point is 84,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of options reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 12.62%, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.85%, with a change of 0.60 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread portfolio strategy for call options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot covered - call strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a long bias and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)** - A bull spread portfolio strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy with a long bias, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot covered - call strategy are recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon)**: A short - volatility strategy is recommended, and no spot hedging strategy is provided [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [15].
金融期权策略早报-20251127
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this state [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy of long synthetic futures options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,864.18, down 5.84 points or 0.15%, with a trading volume of 701 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.8 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,907.83, up 130.52 points or 1.02%, with a trading volume of 1082.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,971.80, up 3.60 points or 0.12%, with a trading volume of 97.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 800 million yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,517.63, up 27.22 points or 0.61%, with a trading volume of 427.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,965.05, up 10.44 points or 0.15%, with a trading volume of 274.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,248.45, down 1.50 points or 0.02%, with a trading volume of 377 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - underlying ETF Market Overview - Multiple ETFs are involved, such as the Shanghai 50 ETF, which closed at 3.114, up 0.004 or 0.13%, with a trading volume of 4.6559 million shares, an increase of 4.5989 million shares, and a trading value of 1.456 billion yuan, a decrease of 316 million yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and position PCR data. For example, the Shanghai 50 ETF option has a trading volume of 69.21 million contracts, a decrease of 23.59 million contracts, a position of 147.66 million contracts, an increase of 0.30 million contracts, a trading volume PCR of 0.90, an increase of 0.02, and a position PCR of 0.82, an increase of 0.03 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For each option variety, the pressure and support points are analyzed. For instance, the Shanghai 50 ETF has a pressure point of 3.20 and a support point of 3.10 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility data. For example, the Shanghai 50 ETF option has a flat - value implied volatility of 15.82%, a weighted implied volatility of 13.46%, a decrease of 0.60%, an annual average of 16.07%, a call implied volatility of 13.38%, and a put implied volatility of 13.56% [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Different sectors and varieties have corresponding option strategies [13]. - For example, for the Shanghai 50 ETF in the financial stock sector, the directional strategy is none, and the volatility strategy is to construct a seller - neutral combination strategy to obtain time - value income [14].
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251127
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:12
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 27, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report - Research Team: Lu Pinxian, Huang Kehan, Li Renjun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are trending upward, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended [2]. - For the black metals sector, which is experiencing significant fluctuations, a volatility - shorting portfolio strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding, a bull spread portfolio strategy is suggested [2]. Group 4: Market Overview Futures Market - Copper (CU2601) closed at 87,090, up 400 (0.46%) with a trading volume of 10.72 million lots and an open interest of 20.47 million lots [3]. - Aluminum (AL2601) closed at 21,565, up 120 (0.56%) with a trading volume of 17.29 million lots and an open interest of 25.91 million lots [3]. - Zinc (ZN2601) closed at 22,525, up 165 (0.74%) with a trading volume of 9.62 million lots and an open interest of 10.07 million lots [3]. - And other metals' futures data are also presented in detail [3]. Option Factors Volume - to - Open Interest PCR - Copper's volume PCR is 0.41 (down 0.21) and open interest PCR is 0.81 (down 0.04) [4]. - Aluminum's volume PCR is 0.52 (down 0.01) and open interest PCR is 0.63 (up 0.02) [4]. - Other metals' volume - to - open interest PCR data are also provided [4]. Pressure and Support Levels - Copper's pressure level is 90,000 and support level is 84,000 [5]. - Aluminum's pressure level is 22,000 and support level is 21,000 [5]. - Similar data for other metals are given [5]. Implied Volatility - Copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 11.72%, weighted implied volatility is 15.25% (up 0.49%) [6]. - Aluminum's at - the - money implied volatility is 8.88%, weighted implied volatility is 10.29% (down 0.09%) [6]. - Implied volatility data for other metals are also included [6]. Group 5: Strategy Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, such as S_CU2601P84000, S_CU2601P86000, S_CU2601C86000, S_CU2601C88000. Also, a spot long - hedging strategy can be constructed [7]. - **Aluminum**: Use a bull spread strategy for direction and a short - volatility strategy for volatility. A spot collar strategy is recommended for hedging [9]. - **Other non - ferrous metals**: Similar strategies are provided for zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread strategy for direction and a short - volatility strategy for volatility. A spot hedging strategy is also suggested [12]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short - volatility strategy with a short delta position. A spot covered - call strategy is recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Use a short - volatility strategy with a neutral delta position. A spot collar strategy is suggested [13]. - **Other black metals**: Strategies for ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, and glass are also presented [14][15].
期权交易中常用的波动率类型
期权交易中常用的波动率类型 本信息不构成任何投资建议,投资者不应 以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等 信息做出决策。本信息根据当前法律法规 规则的相关规定形成解答,方便市场主体 参考使用。法律法规规则如有变化,以最 新规定的要求为准。我们力求本材料信息 准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性或完整 性不作保证,亦不对因使用该等信息而引 发的损失承担任何责任。更多投资知识, 投资者关注"上交所ETF之家"及"上交 所期权之家"微信公众号。 ● 隐含波动率则是把期权价格代入期 权定价模型 里反推出来的波动率,代表市 场对标的证券未来一段时间内波幅的预期 ● 实际波动率是指在未来一段时间内 股票价格的真实波动率。这个实际波动率其 实在我们做交易的时点并不清楚,只能通过 结合历史波动率以及当前的市场信息来对其 进行预测。 在实际交易中,我们可以用隐含波动率 来判断期权价格合理与否。如果隐含波动率 低于你对未来实际波动率的预测值,那么说 明期权价格低估了,可以买进;如果隐含波 动率高于你对未来实际波动率的预测值,那 么说明期权高估了,可以卖出。波动率交易 的核心就是赚取隐含波动率与未来实际波动 率之间的价差。 波动率在期权定 ...
农产品期权策略早报-20251126
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 00:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends in various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak - oscillating state, while some products like apples have shown a certain upward trend. The report recommends constructing option combination strategies mainly for sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have different performance in terms of price, trading volume, and open interest. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,107, with a decline of 10 and a decrease rate of 0.24%, and its trading volume is 11.62 million lots with a decrease of 6.05 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.58 with a change of 0.08, and the open - interest PCR is 1.01 with a change of - 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.6, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.67 with a change of - 0.64 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Products 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation is affected by factors such as China's purchase of US soybeans and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs. The option strategy includes constructing a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average daily trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills have increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory situation affect the market. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish option bear spread combination strategy, a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The spot peanut price is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually release. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The supply and demand of pigs are affected by factors such as group enterprise sales and consumer demand. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The domestic egg price has declined, and the supply is sufficient. The option strategy includes constructing a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The apple production has decreased this year. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The acquisition progress of jujubes in Xinjiang varies by region. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi has declined, and the basis has weakened. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The global cotton production has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The average price of corn in China has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy [13].
金属期权策略早报-20251126
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 00:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended as they tend to move upward. - For the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy is advised as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 86,350, with a decrease of 70 and a decline rate of - 0.08%. [3] 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.62, with a change of - 0.19, and the open - interest PCR is 0.85, with no change [4]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of copper is 90,000, and the support level is 84,000 [5]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and other related data of different metal options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 11.17%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.76%, with a change of - 0.61% [6]. 3.5. Strategy and Recommendations for Each Metal Option - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a short - volatility selling option combination strategy is recommended, along with a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options and a selling option combination strategy for both call and put options are suggested, as well as a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: A neutral selling option combination strategy for both call and put options and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy are proposed [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A bullish selling option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are advised [11]. - **Silver**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options and a bullish short - volatility option selling combination strategy are recommended, along with a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Rebar**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy are proposed [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloy (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: A short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon and relevant analysis and strategies for ferrosilicon are provided [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility selling option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: A bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility selling option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy are proposed [15].
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251125
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 01:32
金属期权 2025-11-25 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号:F03090207 | 交易咨询号:Z0016947 | 邮箱:lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要:(1)有色金属偏多上行,构建卖方中性波动率策略策略;(2)黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势,适合构建做空波动率组合策略;(3)贵金属反弹回暖上升,构建牛市价差组合策略。 | 表1:标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) ...