[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月20日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [周期更长的投资逻辑， Table_NewTitle] 从价格反弹到业 绩兑现 ——资产配置周报（2025/07/14-2025/07/18） [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。7月18日当周，全球股市多数收涨；主要商品期货中铜、铝收涨，黄 金、原油下跌；美元指数上涨，非美货币贬值。1）权益方面：恒生科技指数>创业板指> ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to a loss of majority for the ruling coalition, impacting market stability and government policies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Japanese Political Situation - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to secure fewer than 50 seats in the Senate elections, potentially losing its majority [2][6][7]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may resign if the coalition fails to maintain a majority, which could lead to a political deadlock and hinder legislative progress [9][11]. - The current approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical threshold of 30%, indicating a precarious political situation [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the elections has led to a significant sell-off in the Japanese bond market, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching record levels [7][8]. - Analysts predict that if Ishiba resigns, the Japanese yen could breach the 149.7 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns [8]. - A potential victory for opposition parties could lead to significant policy changes, including tax reductions, which may further destabilize the financial markets [11][12]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the market regarding the Fed's independence, which could influence the dollar's performance [3][15]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates a rise in core prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [17]. - The European Central Bank is also anticipated to maintain its current interest rates amidst ongoing trade tensions, which could affect the euro [19][20]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season will see over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, with Google and Tesla being key focus points [21]. - Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to be $93.9 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by its dominance in digital advertising [22]. - Tesla's anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion represents a 10.46% decline year-over-year, with significant attention on its future guidance and developments in autonomous driving [23].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" Act significantly reduces corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%, allowing for immediate tax deductions on qualified production property and extending other tax incentives for business investments [2] - The Act aims to stimulate economic growth by increasing the actual GDP growth rate by 3% and creating over 7 million jobs, particularly benefiting small businesses and innovation [3][4] - However, the sustainability of economic growth from tax cuts is questionable, with potential diminishing returns and strict time limits on personal income tax reductions [4] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Government Spending - The Act plans to cut at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, primarily targeting social welfare programs to offset the increased fiscal deficit caused by tax cuts [5][6] - The projected increase in government deficit due to tax cuts is estimated at $4.5 trillion over the next ten years, raising concerns about the government's ability to manage its debt [6][7] - The Act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an accelerated expansion of U.S. debt, with projections indicating a debt-to-GDP ratio increase from 122% to over 125% [7][8] Group 3: Social Welfare and Income Distribution - The Act proposes significant cuts to social welfare programs, including nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, which may disproportionately affect low-income individuals while favoring wealthier taxpayers [10][11] - The changes in tax policy are expected to exacerbate income inequality, with lower-income groups facing net losses while higher-income groups benefit from substantial tax reductions [11][12] - The cancellation of renewable energy tax credits may lead to increased energy costs, further straining low-income households already affected by welfare cuts [12]

国：zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 日雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过 宏观周报（7 月 14 日-20 日） 2025 年 7 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎: 0755-8345-3719 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 于金潼 ☎: 186-5320-7096 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 铁伟奥 ☎：136-8324-0373 网: tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 研 ...

Group 1 - Beef prices in the U.S. have surged significantly, with ground beef prices increasing by 12% year-over-year and premium steak prices rising by 8%, marking historical highs [1][3] - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 72 years, with only 86.7 million head of cattle reported, leading to increased reliance on beef imports, which exceed 4 million pounds annually [3] - Tariffs imposed on Brazilian beef, a crucial component of the American diet, threaten to disrupt supply chains, as U.S. meat processors blend imported lean beef with domestic fatty beef for products like hamburgers [3][4] Group 2 - The agricultural sector in the U.S. is facing challenges, with 90% of tomatoes and significant portions of fresh fruits and vegetables being imported, highlighting vulnerabilities in domestic production [3] - The impact of tariffs extends beyond beef, affecting various food items such as coffee and orange juice, which are heavily sourced from Brazil, indicating a broader "food inflation" crisis [4] - The current trade policies are pushing key suppliers like Brazil to seek new markets, potentially destabilizing the U.S. food supply chain and increasing costs for consumers [3][4]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is likely to initially drive up inflation in the U.S., with the potential for future deflation depending on the economic conditions [1][2][3] - The article discusses the divergence in market opinions regarding the impact of high tariffs on U.S. price levels, with mainstream views suggesting that tariffs will push inflation up through import cost transmission, while others argue that it may suppress economic growth and lead to deflationary pressures [2][3] - Historical evidence shows that while tariffs can create cost-push inflation, significant economic contractions can lead to stronger deflationary forces, as seen during the Great Depression and the 2018 trade tensions [3][10] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests that tariffs are more likely to trigger inflation rather than directly cause deflation, due to three main factors: the relative health of the U.S. economy, the significant increase in tariff rates with limited import substitution options, and a relatively weak dollar [7][8][9] - Inflationary pressures began to manifest in May 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase, and further price increases are expected as the tariff policy is fully implemented [11][12] - The article notes that the price increases may not be one-time events, as the uncertain and gradual nature of the tariff implementation could lead to sustained inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers [16][17] Group 3 - Other factors influencing inflation include expansionary fiscal policies, such as the "Big and Beautiful" act, which is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit and support inflation levels, and stricter immigration policies that may lead to labor shortages and rising wage costs [19] - Conversely, potential downward pressures on inflation could arise from spending cuts and slowing economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund and OECD lowering their GDP growth forecasts for the U.S. [20]

Core Viewpoint - The impending 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the U.S. government is causing significant anxiety in the market, particularly among major copper producers and industrial users [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025, as stated by President Trump [1]. - Maximo Pacheco, chairman of Chile's state copper company, warns that this tariff is creating market uncertainty [1][3]. - There is ambiguity regarding whether the tariff applies to refined copper, semi-finished products, or copper ore, leading to confusion among mining companies and industrial users [3]. Group 2: Industry Concerns and Economic Impact - Executives express concern over the tariff's implications, with potential negative effects on key U.S. industries such as electric vehicles, data centers, and defense [3]. - Analysts warn that the tariff could lead to significant cost increases across various sectors, as copper is widely used in electronics, automotive, construction, and data centers [4]. - The U.S. consumes nearly half of its copper from imports, primarily from Chile, making the economy vulnerable to tariff-induced cost pressures [4].

美联储发布的最新经济状况褐皮书显示，5-7月期间美国经济略有增长，然而不确定性令企业决策趋于 谨慎，关税影响下物价压力或在夏末显现。 未来一周，7月份美国制造业和服务业PMI将受到外界关注。市场仍在试图评估特朗普关税政策对经济 造成的损害程度，尽管最近的数据表明，到目前为止经济表现相对较好，对价格的影响也有限。荷兰银 行认为，由于美国关税制度的最终形态仍悬而未决，最近温和的通胀趋势显然无助于减少特朗普贸易政 策对通胀最终影响的不确定性。 本周看点颇多，欧美经济体7月采购经理人指数PMI将发布，外界将寻找特朗普关税政策的影响。欧洲 央行决议将是另一个亮点，预计在连续七次降息后利率将保持不变。在亚洲，市场关注日本上议院选 举，这可能会挑战石破茂首相的职位，并影响与美国的贸易谈判。新执政联盟可能会推动积极的财政宽 松和减税，使其央行实现政策正常化的道路变得复杂。 明星科技股财报来袭 其他值得关注的指标包括6月新屋销售、成屋销售、耐用品订单月率，初请失业金人数等。 在8月1日对等关税生效的最后期限之前，外界将继续等待美国与其他经济体关税协议的任何消息。 特斯拉、谷歌拉开明星科技股业绩序幕。 上周国际市场风云变幻，美股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariffs on foreign products will ultimately burden American consumers, as stated by the head of a Bulgarian essential oil production company [1] Company Summary - The Bulgarian essential oil producer operates 250 hectares of lavender fields and produces approximately 20 tons of lavender oil annually, with the majority intended for export [1] Industry Summary - U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU products effective from August 1, which is expected to impact the essential oil industry and its consumers [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in June, indicating cost pressures from tariffs are being passed to consumers, but overall inflation remains moderate [1] - The Eurozone's June inflation rate was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, returning to the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target [5] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.59% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.07% [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 1.51%, and the Russell 2000 index saw a 0.23% rise [1] - In Europe, the STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.06%, while the DAX 30 index rose by 0.14% [1] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin reached a new historical high of $123,000 this week [3] - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.61%, and WTI crude oil futures dropped by 3.54% due to trade tensions affecting demand [3] - Gold futures closed at $3,355.50 per ounce, down 0.25%, while silver peaked at $39 per ounce before retreating [3] Group 4: Company Earnings and Expectations - Tesla is expected to report Q2 earnings with anticipated revenue between $22 billion and $23 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline [6] - Google is projected to report Q2 revenue between $93.6 billion and $94.2 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase [7] - Analysts have mixed ratings for Tesla and Google, with Tesla facing challenges in its Robotaxi and FSD initiatives, while Google is under scrutiny for its advertising revenue and AI impacts [6][7]