今日周五（6月20日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于36.28一线下方，今日开盘于36.41美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报36.33美元/盎司，下跌0.31%，最高触及36.41元/盎司，最低下探36.28美元/盎司，目前 来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 另一方面，如果白银/美元的每日收盘价高于36.50美元，则以下关键阻力位将是37.00美元和年初至今的 高点37.32美元。 鉴于谈判的敏感性，欧洲消息人士透露，欧盟谈判团队仍在努力争取将税率降至10%以下。然而，其中 一位身为欧盟官员的消息人士指出，随着美国开始从其全球关税政策中获益，降低税率的谈判难度显著 增加。 此轮关税调整对欧洲汽车制造商造成了重创。梅赛德斯奔驰已撤回其盈利预测，斯特兰蒂斯暂停了相关 指引，而沃尔沃汽车则撤回了未来两年的盈利展望。一位欧洲汽车业高管坦言，高端汽车制造商或许能 承受10%的关税负担，但对于面向大众市场的生产商而言，这一税率则构成了更大的挑战。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 白银价格在周三触及多年高点37.32美元后回落至当前水平，但仍偏向上行。灰色金属触及36.21美元附 近的低点;从那时起，它已经恢复，但交 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - European officials are increasingly inclined to accept a 10% "reciprocal" tariff rate as a baseline for any trade agreement with the U.S. [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary has ruled out the possibility of lowering the baseline tariff rate below 10%, which covers most goods exported from the EU to the U.S. [1] - EU negotiators are still striving to reduce the tariff rate below 10%, but the difficulty has increased since the U.S. began generating revenue from its global tariffs [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Companies - European automakers have been significantly impacted, with companies like Mercedes and Stellantis withdrawing their profit guidance due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs [4] - High-end car manufacturers can manage a 10% tariff, but it poses challenges for mass-market producers [4] - The inability to reach an agreement on tariffs could have a substantial negative impact on the market, as stated by industry executives [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The U.S. budget surplus in April was $258 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with net tariff revenue more than doubling compared to the previous year [3] - The U.S. is attempting to include non-tariff barriers such as digital services tax and corporate sustainability reporting rules in the negotiations [3] - The pharmaceutical industry is resisting industry-specific tariffs, although accepting a 10% baseline tariff could provide leverage in negotiations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is advancing a new round of tariffs, which may have a broader impact on imports compared to previous measures, particularly targeting industries deemed crucial for national security, such as chips, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce results of investigations into several industries, potentially leading to tariffs on foreign products in these sectors [1]. - Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, currently at 50%, have affected nearly $200 billion worth of products, significantly increasing the scope compared to his first term [1]. - The latest measures under Section 232 include expanding tariffs to household appliances like dishwashers and washing machines, which are considered vital for national security [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations Impact - The ongoing Section 232 investigations inject uncertainty into U.S. trade negotiations with other countries, as nations are cautious about signing agreements while these investigations are pending [6]. - Countries are concerned about how the Section 232 tariffs may interact with existing country-specific tariffs, leading to potential complications in trade agreements [7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The broadening of Section 232 tariffs could lead to significant inflationary pressures, particularly affecting consumer goods made from imported materials [7]. - The Producer Price Index for steel cans and tin products has already risen by 8.7% this year, indicating potential inflationary effects from the expanded tariffs [7].

消息人士：在与美国的谈判中，欧盟越来越屈从于10%的基础关税 金十数据6月19日讯，熟悉谈判的五位消息人士称，欧洲官员越来越接受将10%的"对等"关税作为美国 和欧盟之间任何贸易协议的基准。此前，美国总统特朗普宣布对贸易伙伴实施广泛关税，美国商务部长 卢特尼克已排除将对欧盟大多数出口美国商品征收的"对等关税"低于10%的可能。消息人士称，欧盟谈 判代表仍在敦促将税率降至10%以下。但其中一位消息人士表示，自从美国开始从其全球关税中获取收 入以来，降低关税水平的谈判变得更加困难。他表示："10%是个棘手的问题。我们正在向他们施压， 但现在他们正在获得收入。"另一位欧洲消息人士表示，欧盟在谈判中没有接受10%作为基准税率，但 承认很难改变或废除这一基准。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - Developed countries show relative resilience under tariff shocks, with May manufacturing PMI for developed nations rising to 50.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from April[6] - Emerging economies' manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from April, indicating higher reliance on global trade[6] - U.S. inflation remained stable in May, with CPI increasing by 2.4% year-on-year, a slight rise of 0.1 percentage points from April[8] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - China's retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, driven by early e-commerce promotions and trade-in policies[2] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, down 0.7 percentage points from April, with manufacturing investment declining for two consecutive months[16] - Exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 34.5% year-on-year in May, significantly impacting overall export performance[19] Group 3: Policy and Trade Negotiations - U.S.-China tariff negotiations saw a temporary breakthrough, with a joint statement on May 13 maintaining tariffs at 10% and suspending 24% tariffs for 90 days[3] - The ongoing trade talks are expected to face high uncertainty, with potential delays in reaching a final agreement exceeding 90 days[23] Group 4: Economic Risks and Outlook - Deflationary pressures persist, with May CPI down 0.1% and PPI down 3.3%, indicating significant deflation risks[20] - The overall economic data for May shows resilience, but concerns remain regarding the sustainability of consumption and export growth[20]

日本比上月增持0.3%，为1万1345亿美元，持有量继续居首。外国投资者对美国国债的总持 有量为9万134亿美元，比上月减少0.4%。 受特朗普宣布对等关税的影响，4月上旬美国的利率一度出现剧烈波动。作为美国长期利率指 标的10年期国债收益率在3天内急升约0.6%，4月9日一度触及4.5%。 美国财长贝森特当时暗示，利率急剧波动的背景是对冲基金等的交易回撤。市场上出现了中 国为对抗美国的对等关税而抛售美国国债的猜测。贝森特否定了这种看法。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）三岛大地 纽约报道 REUTERS 美国财政部数据显示，截至4月底中国持有7572亿美元美国国债，比上月减少1.1%。市场上 曾有中国为对抗美国关税而大量抛售美国国债的猜测，但中国实际的减持幅度有限…… 美国财政部6月18日公布的4月底各国持有美国国债的数据显示，中国比上月减少1.1%至 7572亿美元。日本保持首位，在3月超过中国的英国继续保持第2位。市场上曾有中国为对抗 美国特朗普总统的对等关税而大量抛售美国国债的猜测，但中国实际的减持幅度有限。 这是反映4月上旬美国国债价格急剧波动的首次统计。中国的持有量连续2个月减少。与一年 前相比 ...

Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

去年，日本向美国出口了138万辆汽车，占日本汽车出口总量的四分之一。日本汽车制造商也在加大在 美国的投资和生产。日本汽车制造商协会数据显示，日本汽车制造商每年在美国生产328万辆轿车和轻 型卡车。 此前，特朗普宣布暂停征收部分国家的所谓"对等关税"90天，暂停将于7月9日到期。日本预计将于7月 20日举行参议院选举，此次选举对石破茂所属的执政党自民党至关重要。 周一下午，石破茂与特朗普在G7峰会期间举行了约30分钟会谈，但会谈没有取得突破。石破茂在会后 对记者表示，任何协议都应该顾及到日本和美国两国的利益，目前还有双方看法不一致的部分，之后两 国将继续进行部长级别磋商。 石破茂同时强调，"汽车真的涉及重大国家利益。为坚守国家利益，我们将尽全力反复作出最大的努 力。"据当地媒体报道，日本要求美国取消或大幅降低对日本汽车的进口关税，但遭特朗普拒绝。日本 外务省人士透露，美国重视解决汽车对日贸易逆差问题，与日本提出的取消关税壁垒方案间的分歧十分 明显。 综合中新网、环球网消息，当地时间6月17日，日本首相石破茂宣布将参加24日在荷兰举行的北约峰 会。 日本要求美国全面撤销对汽车和钢铁等加征的关税以及所谓的"对等关税 ...

据智通财经报道，2025 年 6 月，美国在一系列贸易相关动作上有新动态。而这一切，要从近期中美之 间的重要会谈说起。 在过去的一段时间里，美国的关税政策就如同六月的天气，变幻莫测，让全球的投资者和贸易伙伴们都 摸不着头脑。从 4 月初开始，特朗普政府宣布了对数十国征收高额 "对等" 关税，这一消息瞬间如一颗 重磅炸弹投入全球经济的池塘，激起千层浪，全球股市纷纷巨震。可仅仅一周之后，剧情就来了个大反 转，美国又宣布实施 90 天的暂缓征收政策，期间关税降至 10%，这 90 天的暂缓期原定于 7 月 9 日截 止。 特朗普（资料图） 就在众人对美国这一政策走向充满疑惑的时候，中美之间的经贸高层会谈在伦敦举行。这次会谈备受全 球瞩目，毕竟中美作为世界两大经济体，双方之间的贸易关系走向影响着全球经济的格局。令人意外的 是，这次伦敦会谈取得了超出预期的成果。然而，就在中美刚刚谈完不久，美国首席谈判代表、财长贝 森特却做出了一个让人意想不到的举动。他匆匆从中美伦敦会谈提前回国，看似是要回国在国会作证， 可背后却有着更深层次的目的。 回到美国后，贝森特在国会筹款委员会透露了一个重大消息：特朗普政府愿意为 18 个正在谈 ...