加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。 据央视新闻，当地时间6月29日，加拿大财政部在一份声明中表示，加拿大已取消数字服务税，以推进 与美国的贸易谈判。 该声明还表示，加拿大总理卡尼和美国总统特朗普将恢复贸易谈判，以期在7月21日之前达成协议。加 拿大财政部部长商鹏飞将很快提出立法，废除《数字服务税法》。 加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。当地时间6月26日，商鹏飞表示不会推迟向科技公 司征收数字服务税的计划。27日，特朗普宣布，因加拿大对美国科技公司征收数字服务税，美国将停止 与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并将很快宣布对加拿大的新关税税率。同一天，美国财长贝森特表示，美国 政府或将对加拿大征收的数字服务税发起"301调查"。 加拿大数字服务税自去年6月起实施，但首批税款将从6月30日开始收缴。根据计划，加拿大政府将针对 科技公司向加拿大用户提供数字服务或出售加拿大用户数据的收入征收3%的税，并追溯至相关公司 2022年的收入。这意味着符合征税标准的美国公司在7月底前将面临20亿美元的税款。而美国政府一直 对此持反对态度。 卡尼在声明中表示，"今天的声明将有助于重启谈判，以实现本月七国集团（G7 ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate experienced a cumulative appreciation of over 1.82%, with a closing rate of 7.1656 on June 30 [1] - The lowest point of the RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.3506 on April 9, while the highest point was 7.1565 on June 26, resulting in a fluctuation range of 2.6% for the first half of the year [1] - The report from Industrial Bank Research indicates that the "Trump trade" affecting the USD exchange rate continued until January 2025, followed by a decrease in the USD to RMB central rate due to the lack of announced tariff measures [1] Group 2 - In June, the RMB to USD exchange rate appreciated by 0.4%, marking two consecutive months of strengthening [2] - The macro team at CITIC Securities noted that the RMB exchange rate exhibited characteristics of "low volatility and resilience" amid a weaker USD, with the USD to RMB exchange rate remaining stable within the 7.17-7.18 range [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations, indicating a marginally more relaxed stance compared to the previous quarter [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the USD to RMB exchange rate is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with strong resistance/support levels at the previous high of 7.35 and the low of 7.00 from 2024 [3]

6月底日本一项最新民意调查结果显示，首相石破茂领导的内阁支持率为24%，已连续4个月低于30%。 在日本3年一度的国会参议院改选还剩不到1个月的时间，对于日本首相石破茂而言，利空消息频频出 现。 最新让石破茂政府陷入争议的是他领导的内阁成立半年多来所花费的超过6亿日元的"机密费"。由于该 费用无须对外公开具体的用途，因此这笔资金的去向成为外界关注。当前日本在野党已就最新公布 的"机密费"开支情况向石破茂政府发难。 上周，日本政府举行内阁会议，决定参议院选举将于7月3日发布公告，并在7月20日进行投票。据央视 新闻报道，29日，日本一项最新民意调查结果显示，首相石破茂领导的内阁支持率为24%，已连续4个 月低于30%。在日本政坛，内阁支持率低于30%会被舆论视为进入"危险水域"；如果进一步跌破20%， 就被视为陷入"下台水域"。 6月底的东京都议会选举结果显示，自民党失去了在该议会第一大党的地位，仅仅获得21个席位，创下 该党在东京都议会选举最低纪录。这一选举通常被视为参议院选举的"前哨战"和"风向标"。 据央视新闻报道，25日，陷入自民党派阀"黑金丑闻"的原"安倍派"向日本总务大臣提交了政治团体解散 报告，于 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is under significant pressure due to plummeting approval ratings, primarily attributed to the negative impact of tariffs on American consumers [1][3] - A Bloomberg poll indicates that over half of respondents feel tariffs have directly affected their financial situation, with 69% expecting continued price increases on daily goods [1] - The first quarter GDP contracted by 0.3%, contradicting the White House's claims of economic prosperity, leading to a loss of trust among independent voters [1][3] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth has sharply declined from 4% in Q4 of the previous year to 1.8%, while business investment has also significantly decreased due to tariff uncertainties [3][4] - The EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on $95 billion worth of U.S. goods, with strong opposition from allies like Japan and India regarding U.S. tariff demands [4][7] - The U.S. trade deficit surged to a record $162 billion in March, with imports rising significantly while exports saw only a slight increase, raising recession probabilities to 60% according to Goldman Sachs [11] Group 3 - China has extended an invitation to Trump to attend a military parade, which could serve as a strategic move to soften U.S. stances on trade and tariffs [12][19] - The invitation is seen as a way to leverage China's control over rare earth elements, which are critical for U.S. military technology, potentially influencing trade negotiations [12][19] - The Trump administration is reportedly preparing for a significant visit to China, indicating a shift towards more cooperative trade relations [17][19]

Key Points - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinion on adjusting the price fluctuation limit for risk warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, aligning it with other stocks on the main board [2][4] - The U.S. is accelerating negotiations with relevant economies, aiming to reach trade agreements before the expiration of the 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on July 9 [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation and boost consumption [4] - The General Administration of Customs announced the conditional resumption of imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan, following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge [4] Company News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a notice of administrative punishment against Nanjing Yuebo Power System Co., Ltd. for suspected information disclosure violations [7] - Mindray Medical's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 5 million shares, accounting for 0.41% of the company's total share capital [10] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce their stake by no more than 3% [11] - Mag Valley Technology's shareholder Baolifeng plans to reduce their stake by no more than 3% [12] - Qinhuangdao Port's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission plans to reduce its stake by no more than 2% [13] - Unisoc Technology repurchased 775,500 shares for 49.6173 million yuan [14] - *ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a significant 399 million yuan contract for computing power sales [15] - Degu Technology intends to acquire control of Haowei Technology, with stock trading suspended from June 30 [16] - Chengdu Xian Dao terminated a major asset restructuring plan to acquire approximately 65% of Nanjing Haina Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. [17] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [21] Market Insights - Zhongtai Securities maintains a focus on the bond market and dividend assets, while also suggesting that the technology sector, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, is entering a reasonable range for gradual investment [23] - Tianfeng Securities highlights that sectors with solid fundamentals, such as overseas computing power and gaming, may have sustainability, while future trends like solid-state batteries and stablecoins may carry higher risk [24]

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报记者 熊昕仪 环球时报特约记者 文远】商务部新闻发言人28日晚就美与有关国家关税谈判情况答记者问时表 示，中方乐见各方通过平等磋商解决与美方经贸分歧，但坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价达成交易，换取所谓关税减免。如果出现这种情况，中方 绝不接受，将坚决予以反制，维护自身正当权益。马来西亚《今日商业》杂志评论称，这是中国商务部对任何与美国达成损害中国利益贸易协议的国家发出 的严厉警告。与此同时，美国与贸易伙伴的谈判进展并不顺利。在美国政府"对等关税"90天暂停期即将于7月9日结束的背景下，美国总统特朗普仍然保留了 对许多贸易伙伴重新征收高额关税的可能性，美国财长贝森特也暗示，政府可能会给予各国更多时间进行谈判。美国《纽约时报》称，美方表态凸显了与美 国谈判时所面临的不确定性。 商务部研究院研究员周密29日对《环球时报》记者表示，中国一直坚持原则，即在多边框架下处理国与国之间的经贸问题，这就包括对所有国家都采取平等 互惠的方式。因此，如果个别国家在经贸谈判中不遵守多边原则，对中国造成损失，中方肯定不会认可这样的做法。商务部28日的表态也再一次明确释放了 信号：对于想跟 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. President Trump's abrupt decision to halt trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's implementation of a digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, which he labeled as a "blatant attack" [1][2] - The Canadian digital services tax, set at 3%, is expected to impact major U.S. tech firms like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Uber, potentially costing them billions of dollars [2] - Canada has initiated retaliatory measures against the U.S. by imposing quotas on steel imports and a 50% additional tax on steel products exceeding those quotas, aimed at protecting its domestic industry from "unfair U.S. tariffs" [3] Group 2 - Japan and South Korea are actively pursuing trade negotiations with the U.S., with South Korea's new government emphasizing the need for accelerated discussions, particularly regarding tariffs on key products [4] - Japan's trade talks with the U.S. have not yielded significant progress, especially concerning auto tariffs, despite Japan's efforts to use agricultural imports and technology sharing as negotiation leverage [5][7] - The deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" suspension is approaching, with limited time left for the U.S. to finalize agreements, raising concerns about the feasibility of meeting previously set timelines [8]

Core Viewpoint - Trump does not anticipate extending the July 9 deadline for tariffs, suggesting that he prefers to implement higher tariffs sooner rather than later [2][3] Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Trump believes he does not need to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to reach agreements with the U.S. to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. government has the flexibility to either extend or advance the deadline, with Trump expressing a preference for the latter [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed skepticism about finalizing agreements with all trading partners before the deadline, indicating that reaching deals with 10 to 12 out of 18 key relationships might be feasible [2] Group 2: Specific Country Negotiations - India is highlighted as one of the countries closest to reaching an agreement, with trade officials extending their stay in Washington to resolve differences [3][7] - The U.S. is pushing for India to open its market to genetically modified crops, which India has resisted due to concerns for local farmers [7] - France's finance minister expressed confidence that the EU could reach a trade agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline, potentially involving discussions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) [9] Group 3: Broader Trade Context - Trump announced plans for significant tariffs on major trading partners, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and 50% on steel and aluminum, set to take effect on July 9 [9] - The EU is currently purchasing LNG from Russia but is exploring increasing imports from the U.S. to avoid tariff hikes [9][10] - France is coordinating with the EU Commission on potential countermeasures against U.S. imports, although they hope to reach an agreement to avoid such measures [11]

2025.06. 29 本文字数：2524，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 临近特朗普政府设下的关税谈判大限只剩下一周多时间，美方再次放出谈判或可延期讯息。 当地时间27日，美国总统特朗普在记者会上表示，此前宣布的截止日期仍具灵活性。 美国财政部长贝森特则在同天早些时候表示，特朗普政府与十多个贸易伙伴的关税谈判可能延续至9月。 贝森特介绍，美国商务部部长卢特尼克在近期说，白宫计划与10个主要贸易伙伴达成协议，而目前在美 方的18个重要贸易伙伴中，如果能够与其中的10个或12个达成协议(此外还有另外20个重要伙伴)，"那么 我认为我们可以在美国劳动节（9月1日）前完成贸易谈判。" 最后时刻要提高要价？ 特朗普在27日的记者会上进一步强化了对部分国家提高关税的威胁。 "在未来一周半左右的时间里，或者可能更早，我们将发送一封信件，我们已经与许多国家进行了沟通， 我们将告诉他们，他们需要支付多少费用才能在美国开展业务，"特朗普表示。 当被问及7月的最后期限是否已成定局时，特朗普暗示他甚至可以缩短寻求协议的贸易伙伴的时间表。 来源：新华社 "我们可以随心所欲。"特朗普表示，"我们可以延长它（谈判截止日期 ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to show an upward breakthrough in July, with technology and non-bank sectors likely to outperform [2][3][21] - Fiscal indices and resilient consumption have led to a marginal improvement in total demand growth in Q2, creating a favorable environment for upcoming mid-year performance disclosures [3][21] - Despite high-frequency data indicating export pressures in the second half, total demand is expected to remain stable, reducing the likelihood of significant economic downturns [3][21] Industry Recommendations - Focus on sectors with expected mid-year performance improvements, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and midstream manufacturing [4][17] - Recommended sectors include electronics (semiconductors), machinery (automation equipment), pharmaceuticals (chemical drugs), defense and military, non-ferrous metals (industrial, precious, and minor metals), and computers [4][17] - Key investment tracks for July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank finance, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [18] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth rebounded to 5.7% in May, indicating stability, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.2% [22][23] - Government financing has significantly contributed to social financing growth, supporting economic recovery and creating a favorable financial environment for the stock market [24][27] - Fiscal spending has accelerated, with a 26% year-on-year increase in broad fiscal spending in the first five months, playing a crucial role in improving economic data [30]